A novel filtering framework through Girsanov correction for the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems

Using a Girsanov change of measures, we propose novel variations within a particle-filtering algorithm, as applied to the inverse problem of state and parameter estimations of nonlinear dynamical systems of engineering interest, toward weakly correcting for the linearization or integration errors that almost invariably occur whilst numerically propagating the process dynamics, typically governed by nonlinear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Specifically, the correction for linearization, provided by the likelihood or the Radon-Nikodym derivative, is incorporated within the evolving flow in two steps. Once the likelihood, an exponential martingale, is split into a product of two factors, correction owing to the first factor is implemented via rejection sampling in the first step. The second factor, which is directly computable, is accounted for via two different schemes, one employing resampling and the other using a gain-weighted innovation term added to the drift field of the process dynamics thereby overcoming the problem of sample dispersion posed by resampling. The proposed strategies, employed as add-ons to existing particle filters, the bootstrap and auxiliary SIR filters in this work, are found to non-trivially improve the convergence and accuracy of the estimates and also yield reduced mean square errors of such estimates vis-a-vis those obtained through the parent-filtering schemes.

A simulation-based algorithm for optimal pricing policy under demand uncertainty

We propose a simulation-based algorithm for computing the optimal pricing policy for a product under uncertain demand dynamics. We consider a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the uncertain demand dynamics of the product over the planning horizon. In particular, we consider a dynamic model that is an extension of the Bass model. The performance of our algorithm is compared to that of a myopic pricing policy and is shown to give better results. Two significant advantages with our algorithm are as follows: (a) it does not require information on the system model parameters if the SDE system state is known via either a simulation device or real data, and (b) as it works efficiently even for high-dimensional parameters, it uses the efficient smoothed functional gradient estimator.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First-passage failure of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems

The first-passage failure of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian si-stems (multidegree-of-freedom integrable Hamiltonian systems subject to light dampings and weakly random excitations) is investigated. The motion equations of such a system are first reduced to a set of averaged Ito stochastic differential equations by using the stochastic averaging method for quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems. Then, a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function and a set of generalized Pontryagin equations governing the conditional moments of first-passage time are established. Finally, the conditional reliability function, and the conditional probability density and moments of first-passage time are obtained by solving these equations with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Two examples are given to illustrate the proposed procedure and the results from digital simulation are obtained to verify the effectiveness of the procedure.

First-passage time of Duffing oscillator under combined harmonic and white-noise excitations

The first-passage time of Duffing oscillator under combined harmonic and white-noise excitations is studied. The equation of motion of the system is first reduced to a set of averaged Ito stochastic differential equations by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function and a set of generalized Pontryagin equations governing the conditional moments of first-passage time are established. Finally, the conditional reliability function, and the conditional probability density and moments of first-passage time are obtained by solving the backward Kolmogorov equation and generalized Pontryagin equations with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Numerical results for two resonant cases with several sets of parameter values are obtained and the analytical results are verified by using those from digital simulation.

Subgrid scale fluid velocity timescales seen by inertial particles in large-eddy simulation of particle-laden turbulence

Large-eddy simulation (LES) has emerged as a promising tool for simulating turbulent flows in general and, in recent years,has also been applied to the particle-laden turbulence with some success (Kassinos et al., 2007). The motion of inertial particles is much more complicated than fluid elements, and therefore, LES of turbulent flow laden with inertial particles encounters new challenges. In the conventional LES, only large-scale eddies are explicitly resolved and the effects of unresolved, small or subgrid scale (SGS) eddies on the large-scale eddies are modeled. The SGS turbulent flow field is not available. The effects of SGS turbulent velocity field on particle motion have been studied by Wang and Squires (1996), Armenio et al. (1999), Yamamoto et al. (2001), Shotorban and Mashayek (2006a,b), Fede and Simonin (2006), Berrouk et al. (2007), Bini and Jones (2008), and Pozorski and Apte (2009), amongst others. One contemporary method to include the effects of SGS eddies on inertial particle motions is to introduce a stochastic differential equation (SDE), that is, a Langevin stochastic equation to model the SGS fluid velocity seen by inertial particles (Fede et al., 2006; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006a; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006b; Berrouk et al., 2007; Bini and Jones, 2008; Pozorski and Apte, 2009).However, the accuracy of such a Langevin equation model depends primarily on the prescription of the SGS fluid velocity autocorrelation time seen by an inertial particle or the inertial particle–SGS eddy interaction timescale (denoted by $\delt T_{Lp}$ and a second model constant in the diffusion term which controls the intensity of the random force received by an inertial particle (denoted by C_0, see Eq. (7)). From the theoretical point of view, dTLp differs significantly from the Lagrangian fluid velocity correlation time (Reeks, 1977; Wang and Stock, 1993), and this carries the essential nonlinearity in the statistical modeling of particle motion. dTLp and C0 may depend on the filter width and particle Stokes number even for a given turbulent flow. In previous studies, dTLp is modeled either by the fluid SGS Lagrangian timescale (Fede et al., 2006; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006b; Pozorski and Apte, 2009; Bini and Jones, 2008) or by a simple extension of the timescale obtained from the full flow field (Berrouk et al., 2007). In this work, we shall study the subtle and on-monotonic dependence of $\delt T_{Lp}$ on the filter width and particle Stokes number using a flow field obtained from Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). We then propose an empirical closure model for $\delta T_{Lp}$. Finally, the model is validated against LES of particle-laden turbulence in predicting single-particle statistics such as particle kinetic energy. As a first step, we consider the particle motion under the one-way coupling assumption in isotropic turbulent flow and neglect the gravitational settling effect. The one-way coupling assumption is only valid for low particle mass loading.

A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

Spectral density of first order Piecewise linear systems excited by white noise

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is used to develop a general method for finding the spectral density for a class of randomly excited first order systems. This class consists of systems satisfying stochastic differential equations of form ẋ + f(x) = m/Ʃ/j = 1 h_j(x)n_j(t) where f and the h_j are piecewise linear functions (not necessarily continuous), and the n_j are stationary Gaussian white noise. For such systems, it is shown how the Laplace-transformed FP equation can be solved for the transformed transition probability density. By manipulation of the FP equation and its adjoint, a formula is derived for the transformed autocorrelation function in terms of the transformed transition density. From this, the spectral density is readily obtained. The method generalizes that of Caughey and Dienes, J. Appl. Phys., 32.11.

This method is applied to 4 subclasses: (1) m = 1, h₁ = const. (forcing function excitation); (2) m = 1, h₁ = f (parametric excitation); (3) m = 2, h₁ = const., h₂ = f, n₁ and n₂ correlated; (4) the same, uncorrelated. Many special cases, especially in subclass (1), are worked through to obtain explicit formulas for the spectral density, most of which have not been obtained before. Some results are graphed.

Dealing with parametrically excited first order systems leads to two complications. There is some controversy concerning the form of the FP equation involved (see Gray and Caughey, J. Math. Phys., 44.3); and the conditions which apply at irregular points, where the second order coefficient of the FP equation vanishes, are not obvious but require use of the mathematical theory of diffusion processes developed by Feller and others. These points are discussed in the first chapter, relevant results from various sources being summarized and applied. Also discussed is the steady-state density (the limit of the transition density as t → ∞).

Quantum Flows as Markovian Limit of Emission, Absorption and Scattering Interactions

Gough, John, (2004) 'Quantum Flows as Markovian Limit of Emission, Absorption and Scattering Interactions', Communications in Mathematical Physics 254 pp.498-512 RAE2008

Holevo-Ordering and the Continuous-Time Limit for Open Floquet Dynamics

Gough, John, (2004) 'Holevo-Ordering and the Continuous-Time Limit for Open Floquet Dynamics', Letters in Mathematical Physcis 67(3) pp.207-221 RAE2008

Convergence of numerical time-averaging and stationary measures via Poisson equations

Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic di.erential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical method converges to that of the SDE. The error analysis is based on using an associated Poisson equation for the underlying SDE. The main advantages of this approach are its simplicity and universality. It works equally well for a range of explicit and implicit schemes, including those with simple simulation of random variables, and for hypoelliptic SDEs. To simplify the exposition, we consider only the case where the state space of the SDE is a torus, and we study only smooth test functions. However, we anticipate that the approach can be applied more widely. An analogy between our approach and Stein's method is indicated. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Multiscale numerical modelling of crack propagation in two-dimensional metal plate

A novel multiscale model of brittle crack propagation in an Ag plate with macroscopic dimensions has been developed. The model represents crack propagation as stochastic drift-diffusion motion of the crack tip atom through the material, and couples the dynamics across three different length scales. It integrates the nanomechanics of bond rupture at the crack tip with the displacement and stress field equations of continuum based fracture theories. The finite element method is employed to obtain the continuum based displacement and stress fields over the macroscopic plate, and these are then used to drive the crack tip forward at the atomic level using the molecular dynamics simulation method based on many-body interatomic potentials. The linkage from the nanoscopic scale back to the macroscopic scale is established via the Ito stochastic calculus, the stochastic differential equation of which advances the tip to a new position on the macroscopic scale using the crack velocity and diffusion constant obtained on the nanoscale. Well known crack characteristics, such as the roughening transitions of the crack surfaces, crack velocity oscillations, as well as the macroscopic crack trajectories, are obtained.

A multi-scale numerical modelling of crack propagation in a 2D metallic plate

A new multi-scale model of brittle fracture growth in an Ag plate with macroscopic dimensions is proposed in which the crack propagation is identified with the stochastic drift-diffusion motion of the crack-tip atom through the material. The model couples molecular dynamics simulations, based on many-body interatomic potentials, with the continuum-based theories of fracture mechanics. The Ito stochastic differential equation is used to advance the tip position on a macroscopic scale before each nano-scale simulation is performed. Well-known crack characteristics, such as the roughening transitions of the crack surfaces, as well as the macroscopic crack trajectories are obtained.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.