A unifying approach to the empirical evaluation of asset pricing models

Two main approaches are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricingmodels: regression and SDF methods, with centred and uncentred versions of the latter.We show that unlike standard two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimatorssuch as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical values for prices of risk,pricing errors, Jensen s alphas and overidentifying restrictions tests irrespective of the modelvalidity. Therefore, there is arguably a single approach regardless of the factors being tradedor not, or the use of excess or gross returns. We illustrate our results by revisiting Lustigand Verdelhan s (2007) empirical analysis of currency returns.

On the throughput-WIP trade-off in queueing systems, diminishing returns and the threshold property: A linear programming approach

We present a new unifying framework for investigating throughput-WIP(Work-in-Process) optimal control problems in queueing systems,based on reformulating them as linear programming (LP) problems withspecial structure: We show that if a throughput-WIP performance pairin a stochastic system satisfies the Threshold Property we introducein this paper, then we can reformulate the problem of optimizing alinear objective of throughput-WIP performance as a (semi-infinite)LP problem over a polygon with special structure (a thresholdpolygon). The strong structural properties of such polygones explainthe optimality of threshold policies for optimizing linearperformance objectives: their vertices correspond to the performancepairs of threshold policies. We analyze in this framework theversatile input-output queueing intensity control model introduced byChen and Yao (1990), obtaining a variety of new results, including (a)an exact reformulation of the control problem as an LP problem over athreshold polygon; (b) an analytical characterization of the Min WIPfunction (giving the minimum WIP level required to attain a targetthroughput level); (c) an LP Value Decomposition Theorem that relatesthe objective value under an arbitrary policy with that of a giventhreshold policy (thus revealing the LP interpretation of Chen andYao's optimality conditions); (d) diminishing returns and invarianceproperties of throughput-WIP performance, which underlie thresholdoptimality; (e) a unified treatment of the time-discounted andtime-average cases.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region approach: Part I, the single-station case

We address the performance optimization problem in a single-stationmulticlass queueing network with changeover times by means of theachievable region approach. This approach seeks to obtainperformance bounds and scheduling policies from the solution of amathematical program over a relaxation of the system's performanceregion. Relaxed formulations (including linear, convex, nonconvexand positive semidefinite constraints) of this region are developedby formulating equilibrium relations satisfied by the system, withthe help of Palm calculus. Our contributions include: (1) newconstraints formulating equilibrium relations on server dynamics;(2) a flow conservation interpretation of the constraintspreviously derived by the potential function method; (3) newpositive semidefinite constraints; (4) new work decomposition lawsfor single-station multiclass queueing networks, which yield newconvex constraints; (5) a unified buffer occupancy method ofperformance analysis obtained from the constraints; (6) heuristicscheduling policies from the solution of the relaxations.

Surface collective oscillations of metal clusters and spheres: Random-phase-approximation sum-rules approach

Using the once and thrice energy-weighted moments of the random-phase-approximation strength function, we have derived compact expressions for the average energy of surface collective oscillations of clusters and spheres of metal atoms. The L=0 volume mode has also been studied. We have carried out quantal and semiclassical calculations for Na and Ag systems in the spherical-jellium approximation. We present a rather thorough discussion of surface diffuseness and quantal size effects on the resonance energies.

Stochastic generation of homogeneous isotropic turbulence with well-defined-spectra

A precise and simple computational model to generate well-behaved two-dimensional turbulent flows is presented. The whole approach rests on the use of stochastic differential equations and is general enough to reproduce a variety of energy spectra and spatiotemporal correlation functions. Analytical expressions for both the continuous and the discrete versions, together with simulation algorithms, are derived. Results for two relevant spectra, covering distinct ranges of wave numbers, are given.

Langevin approach to generate synthetic turbulent flows

We present an analytical scheme, easily implemented numerically, to generate synthetic Gaussian turbulent flows by using a linear Langevin equation, where the noise term acts as a stochastic stirring force. The characteristic parameters of the velocity field are well introduced, in particular the kinematic viscosity and the spectrum of energy. As an application, the diffusion of a passive scalar is studied for two different energy spectra. Numerical results are compared favorably with analytical calculations.

Phenomenological approach to nonlinear Langevin equations

In this paper we address the problem of consistently constructing Langevin equations to describe fluctuations in nonlinear systems. Detailed balance severely restricts the choice of the random force, but we prove that this property, together with the macroscopic knowledge of the system, is not enough to determine all the properties of the random force. If the cause of the fluctuations is weakly coupled to the fluctuating variable, then the statistical properties of the random force can be completely specified. For variables odd under time reversal, microscopic reversibility and weak coupling impose symmetry relations on the variable-dependent Onsager coefficients. We then analyze the fluctuations in two cases: Brownian motion in position space and an asymmetric diode, for which the analysis based in the master equation approach is known. We find that, to the order of validity of the Langevin equation proposed here, the phenomenological theory is in agreement with the results predicted by more microscopic models

Stochastic resonance in a system of magnetic particles

We show that a dispersion of monodomain ferromagnetic particles in a solid phase exhibits stochastic resonance when a driven linearly polarized magnetic field is applied. By using an adiabatic approach, we calculate the power spectrum, the distribution of residence times, and the mean first passage time. The behavior of these quantities is similar to the behavior of corresponding quantities in other systems where stochastic resonance has also been observed.

Stochastic generation of homogeneous isotropic turbulence with well-defined-spectra

A precise and simple computational model to generate well-behaved two-dimensional turbulent flows is presented. The whole approach rests on the use of stochastic differential equations and is general enough to reproduce a variety of energy spectra and spatiotemporal correlation functions. Analytical expressions for both the continuous and the discrete versions, together with simulation algorithms, are derived. Results for two relevant spectra, covering distinct ranges of wave numbers, are given.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Langevin approach to generate synthetic turbulent flows

We present an analytical scheme, easily implemented numerically, to generate synthetic Gaussian turbulent flows by using a linear Langevin equation, where the noise term acts as a stochastic stirring force. The characteristic parameters of the velocity field are well introduced, in particular the kinematic viscosity and the spectrum of energy. As an application, the diffusion of a passive scalar is studied for two different energy spectra. Numerical results are compared favorably with analytical calculations.

Integration of local-scale hydrological and regional-scale geophysical based on a nonlinear Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed a downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The basic objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity, which is available throughout the model space. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariate kernel density function. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, re- gional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the downscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

A non-linear Bayesian approach for upscaling local-scale hydraulic conductivity measurements based on local- and regional-scale geophysical data

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.