Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Daylighting design and simulation : ease of use analysis of digital tools for architects

Good daylighting design in buildings not only provides a comfortable luminous environment, but also delivers energy savings and comfortable and healthy environments for building occupants. Yet, there is still no consensus on how to assess what constitutes good daylighting design. Currently amongst building performance guidelines, Daylighting factors (DF) or minimum illuminance values are the standard; however, previous research has shown the shortcomings of these metrics. New computer software for daylighting analysis contains new more advanced metrics for daylighting (Climate Base Daylight Metrics-CBDM). Yet, these tools (new metrics or simulation tools) are not currently understood by architects and are not used within architectural firms in Australia. A survey of architectural firms in Brisbane showed the most relevant tools used by industry. The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare these computer simulation tools and new tools available architects and designers for daylighting. The tools are assessed in terms of their ease of use (e.g. previous knowledge required, complexity of geometry input, etc.), efficiency (e.g. speed, render capabilities, etc.) and outcomes (e.g. presentation of results, etc. The study shows tools that are most accessible for architects, are those that import a wide variety of files, or can be integrated into the current 3d modelling software or package. These software’s need to be able to calculate for point in times simulations, and annual analysis. There is a current need in these software solutions for an open source program able to read raw data (in the form of spreadsheets) and show that graphically within a 3D medium. Currently, development into plug-in based software’s are trying to solve this need through third party analysis, however some of these packages are heavily reliant and their host program. These programs however which allow dynamic daylighting simulation, which will make it easier to calculate accurate daylighting no matter which modelling platform the designer uses, while producing more tangible analysis today, without the need to process raw data.

Screening in early childhood for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.

Brothers in arms – An experiment on the alliance puzzle

The generic alliance game considers players in an alliance who fight against an external enemy. After victory, the alliance may break up, and its members may fight against each other over the spoils of the victory. Our experimental analysis of this game shows: In-group solidarity vanishes after the break-up of the alliance. Former ‘brothers in arms’ fight even more vigorously against each other than strangers do. Furthermore, this vigorous internal fighting is anticipated and reduces the ability of the alliance to mobilize the joint fighting effort, compared to a situation in which victorious alliance members share the spoils of victory equally and peacefully

Genotoxicity of inorganic lead salts and disturbance of microtubule function

Lead compounds are known genotoxicants, principally affecting the integrity of chromosomes. Lead chloride and lead acetate induced concentration-dependent increases in micronucleus frequency in V79 cells, starting at 1.1 μM lead chloride and 0.05 μM lead acetate. The difference between the lead salts, which was expected based on their relative abilities to form complex acetato-cations, was confirmed in an independent experiment. CREST analyses of the micronuclei verified that lead chloride and acetate were predominantly aneugenic (CREST-positive response), which was consistent with the morphology of the micronuclei (larger micronuclei, compared with micronuclei induced by a clastogenic mechanism). The effects of high concentrations of lead salts on the microtubule network of V79 cells were also examined using immunofluorescence staining. The dose effects of these responses were consistent with the cytotoxicity of lead(II), as visualized in the neutral-red uptake assay. In a cell-free system, 20-60 μM lead salts inhibited tubulin assembly dose-dependently. The no-observed-effect concentration of lead(II) in this assay was 10 μM. This inhibitory effect was interpreted as a shift of the assembly/disassembly steady-state toward disassembly, e.g., by reducing the concentration of assembly-competent tubulin dimers. The effects of lead salts on microtubule-associated motor-protein functions were studied using a kinesin-gliding assay that mimics intracellular transport processes in vitro by quantifying the movement of paclitaxel-stabilized microtubules across a kinesin-coated glass surface. There was a dose-dependent effect of lead nitrate on microtubule motility. Lead nitrate affected the gliding velocities of microtubules starting at concentrations above 10 μM and reached half-maximal inhibition of motility at about 50 μM. The processes reported here point to relevant interactions of lead with tubulin and kinesin at low dose levels.

Genotoxicity of inorganic mercury salts based on disturbed microtubule function

This study investigated the hypothesis that the chromosomal genotoxicity of inorganic mercury results from interaction(s) with cytoskeletal proteins. Effects of Hg2+ salts on functional activities of tubulin and kinesin were investigated by determining tubulin assembly and kinesin-driven motility in cell-free systems. Hg2+ inhibits microtubule assembly at concentrations above 1 μM, and inhibition is complete at about 10 μM. In this range, the tubulin assembly is fully (up to 6 μM) or partially (∼6-10 μM) reversible. The inhibition of tubulin assembly by mercury is independent of the anion, chloride or nitrate. The no-observed-effect- concentration for inhibition of microtubule assembly in vitro was 1 μM Hg2+, the IC50 5.8 μM. Mercury(II) salts at the IC 50 concentrations partly inhibiting tubulin assembly did not cause the formation of aberrant microtubule structures. Effects of mercury salts on the functionality of the microtubule motility apparatus were studied with the motor protein kinesin. By using a "gliding assay" mimicking intracellular movement and transport processes in vitro, HgCl2 affected the gliding velocity of paclitaxel-stabilised microtubules in a clear dose-dependent manner. An apparent effect is detected at a concentration of 0.1 μM and a complete inhibition is reached at 1 μM. Cytotoxicity of mercury chloride was studied in V79 cells using neutral red uptake, showing an influence above 17 μM HgCl2. Between 15 and 20 μM HgCl2 there was a steep increase in cell toxicity. Both mercury chloride and mercury nitrate induced micronuclei concentration-dependently, starting at concentrations above 0.01 μM. CREST analyses on micronuclei formation in V79 cells demonstrated both clastogenic (CREST-negative) and aneugenic effects of Hg2+, with some preponderance of aneugenicity. A morphological effect of high Hg2+ concentrations (100 μM HgCl2) on the microtubule cytoskeleton was verified in V79 cells by immuno-fluorescence staining. The overall data are consistent with the concept that the chromosomal genotoxicity could be due to interaction of Hg2+ with the motor protein kinesin mediating cellular transport processes. Interactions of Hg 2+ with the tubulin shown by in vitro investigations could also partly influence intracellular microtubule functions leading, together with the effects on the kinesin, to an impaired chromosome distribution as shown by the micronucleus test.

Disturbed microtubule function and induction of micronuclei by chelate complexes of mercury(II)

Interactions of mercury(II) with the microtubule network of cells may lead to genotoxicity. Complexation of mercury(II) with EDTA is currently being discussed for its employment in detoxification processes of polluted sites. This prompted us to re-evaluate the effects of such complexing agents on certain aspects of mercury toxicity, by examining the influences of mercury(II) complexes on tubulin assembly and kinesin-driven motility of microtubules. The genotoxic effects were studied using the micronucleus assay in V79 Chinese hamster fibroblasts. Mercury(II) complexes with EDTA and related chelators interfered dose-dependently with tubulin assembly and microtubule motility in vitro. The no-effect-concentration for assembly inhibition was 1 μM of complexed Hg(II), and for inhibition of motility it was 0.05 μM, respectively. These findings are supported on the genotoxicity level by the results of the micronucleus assay, with micronuclei being induced dose-dependently starting at concentrations of about 0.05 μM of complexed Hg(II). Generally, the no-effect-concentrations for complexed mercury(II) found in the cell-free systems and in cellular assays (including the micronucleus test) were identical with or similar to results for mercury tested in the absence of chelators. This indicates that mercury(II) has a much higher affinity to sulfhydryls of cytoskeletal proteins than to this type of complexing agents. Therefore, the suitability of EDTA and related compounds for remediation of environmental mercury contamination or for other detoxification purposes involving mercury has to be questioned.

Species differences in the glutathione transferase GSTT1-1 activity towards the model substrates methyl chloride and dichloromethane in liver and kidney

Glutathione transferase (GST) GSTT1-1 is involved in the biotransformation of several chemicals widely used in industry, such as butadiene and dichloro methane DCM. The polymorphic hGSTT1-1 may well play a role in the development of kidney tumours after high and long-term occupational exposure against trichloroethylene. Although several studies have investigated the association of this polymorphism with malignant diseases little is known about its enzyme activity in potential extrahepatic target tissues. The known theta-specific substrates methyl chloride (MC) dichloromethane and 1,2-epoxy-3-(p-nitrophenoxy)propane (EPNP) were used to assay GSTT1-1 activity in liver and kidney of rats, mice, hamsters and humans differentiating the three phenotypes (non-conjugators, low conjugators, high conjugators) seen in humans. In addition GSTT1-1 activity towards MC and DCM was determined in human erythrocytes. No GSTT1-1 activity was found in any tissue of non-conjugators (NC). In all organs high conjugators (HC) showed twofold higher activity towards MC and DCM than low conjugators (LC). The activity in human samples towards EPNP was too close to the detection limit to differentiate between the three conjugator phenotypes. GSTT1-1 activity towards MC was two to seven-times higher in liver cytosol than in kidney cytosol. The relation for MC between species was identical in both organs: mouse > HC > rat > LC > hamster > NC. In rats, mice and hamsters GSTT1-1 activity in liver cytosol towards DCM was also two to seven-times higher than in the kidney cytosol. In humans this activity was twice as high in kidney cytosol than in liver cytosol. The relation between species was mouse > rat > HC > LC > hamster > NC for liver, but mouse > HC > LC/rat > hamster/NC for kidney cytosol. The importance to heed the specific environment at potential target sites in risk assessment is emphasized by these results.

Alliances in the shadow of conflict

Victorious alliances often fight about the spoils of war. This article presents an experiment on the determinants of whether alliances break up and fight internally after having defeated a joint enemy. First, if peaceful sharing yields an asymmetric rent distribution, this increases the likelihood of fighting. In turn, anticipation of the higher likelihood of internal fight reduces the alliance’s ability to succeed against the outside enemy. Second, the option to make nonbinding nonaggression declarations between alliance members does not make peaceful settlement within the alliance more likely. Third, higher differences in the alliance players’ contributions to alliance effort lead to more internal conflict and more intense fighting.

The Australian prehospital pandemic risk perception study and an examination of new public health roles in pandemic response for ambulance services

This report is one of a series of products resulting from a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Urgent Research Grant – Pandemic Influenza [No 409973]. The research targeted two key aspects of planning and preparedness for a human influenza pandemic, namely: