Commercialisation of agriculture in Kenya: Case study of urban bias on food availability in farm households

This study investigates the effect of cash cropping on food availability and examines the determinants of the proportion of income allocated for food expenditures in the Nyeri district in Kenya. Using a Tobit model, the results suggest that in general food expenditure allocations suffer due to cash cropping in Kenya as the lump-sum income flows from this may be used for purchases other than food. Food expenditure also suffers when remittances are irregular. On the other hand, earnings from outside employment for married women living with husbands are positively associated with food expenditure allocations. Amounts of non-cash food output as well as ownership of livestock are negatively associated with food expenditure allocations. These findings indicate that lump sum income may not lead to improved welfare of women and children. Thus, there may be social reasons for increasing non-cash food production especially by women, instead of over emphasizing cash cropping as now seems to be so in public policy.

Status, legitimacy and ingroup bias in the context of an organizational merger

Adopting an intergroup perspective, the research was designed to examine predictors of employee responses to an organizational merger. Data were collected from 120 employees of a newly merged scientific organization. As predicted from social identity theory, the most negative responses to the merger were apparent among the employees of the low status premerger organization. There was also evidence of ingroup bias among both groups of employees involved in the merger—as expected, the bias was most marked on the status-irrelevant dimensions for the employees of the lower status organization, but most marked on the status-relevant dimensions for the employees of the high status organization. Also, in support of social identity theory, the perceived legitimacy of the basis for the status differentiation between the groups was associated with more positive responses to the merger among employees of the low status premerger organization, but with poorer responses among employees of the high status premerger organization. There was consistent evidence that the status by legitimacy interaction was mediated through the extent to which employees of the newly merged organization perceived a common ingroup identity

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.

Applying statistical approaches in the dissection of genes versus environment for asthma and allergic disease

Now that some of the genes involved in asthma and allergy have been identified, interest is turning to how genetic predisposition interacts with exposure to environmental risk factors. These questions are best answered by studies in which both genotypes and other risk factors are measured, but even simpler studies, in which family history is used as a proxy for genotype, have made suggestive findings. For example, early breast feeding may increase the risk of allergic disease in genetically susceptible children, and decrease the risk of 'sporadic' allergy. This review also addresses the overall importance of genetic causes of allergic disease in the general population.

Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Codon usage bias and A+T content variation in human papillomavirus genomes

We analyzed the codon usage bias of eight open reading frames (ORFs) across up to 79 human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes from three distinct phylogenetic groups. All eight ORFs across HPV genotypes show a strong codon usage bias, amongst degenerately encoded amino acids, toward 18 codons mainly with T at the 3rd position. For all 18 degenerately encoded amino acids, codon preferences amongst human and animal PV ORFs are significantly different from those averaged across mammalian genes. Across the HPV types, the L2 ORFs show the highest codon usage bias (73.2 +/- 1.6% and the E4 ORFs the lowest (51.1 +/- 0.5%), reflecting as similar bias in codon 3rd position A + T content (L2: 76.1 +/- 4.2%; E4: 58.6 +/- 4.5%). The E4 ORF, uniquely amongst the HPV ORFs, is G + C rich, while the other ORFs are A + T rich. Codon usage bias correlates positively with A + T content at the codon 3rd position in the E2, E6, L1 and L2 ORFs, but negatively in the E4 ORFs. A general conservation of preferred codon usage across human and non-human PV genotypes whether they originate from a same supergroup or not, together with observed difference between the preferred codon usage for HPV ORFs and for genes of the cells they infect, suggests that specific codon usage bias and A + T content variation may somehow increase the replicational fitness of HPVs in mammalian epithelial cells, and have practical implications for gene therapy of HPV infection. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.