Do individual directors matter?

Paper 1: Pilot study of Swiss firms Abstract Using a fixed effects approach, we investigate whether the presence of specific individuals on Swiss firms’ boards affects firm performance and the policy choices they make. We find evidence for a substantial impact of these directors’ presence on their firms. Moreover, the director effects are correlated across policies and performance measures but uncorrelated to the directors’ background. We find these results interesting but conclude that they should to be substantiated on a dataset that is larger and better understood by researchers. Also, further tests are required to rule out methodological concerns. Paper 2: Evidence from the S&P 1,500 Abstract We ask whether directors on corporate boards contribute to firm performance as individuals. From the universe of the S&P 1,500 firms since 1996 we track 2,062 directors who serve on multiple boards over extended periods of time. Our initial findings suggest that the presence of these directors is associated with substantial performance shifts (director fixed effects). Closer examination shows that these effects are statistical artifacts and we conclude that directors are largely fungible. Moreover, we contribute to the discussion of the fixed effects method. In particular, we highlight that the selection of the randomization method is pivotal when generating placebo benchmarks. Paper 3: Robustness, statistical power, and important directors Abstract This article provides a better understanding of Senn’s (2014) findings: The outcome that individual directors are unrelated to firm performance proves robust against different estimation models and testing strategies. By looking at CEOs, the statistical power of the placebo benchmarking test is evaluated. We find that only the stronger tests are able to detect CEO fixed effects. However, these tests are not suitable to analyze directors. The suitable tests would detect director effects if the inter quartile range of the true effects amounted to 3 percentage points ROA. As Senn (2014) finds no such effects for outside directors in general, we focus on groups of particularly important directors (e.g., COBs, non-busy directors, successful directors). Overall, our evidence suggests that the members of these groups are not individually associated with firm performance either. Thus, we confirm that individual directors are largely fungible. If the individual has an effect on performance, it is of small magnitude.

Improving the dependability of research in personality and social psychology: Recommendations for research and educational practice

In this article, the Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) Task Force on Publication and Research Practices offers a brief statistical primer and recommendations for improving the dependability of research. Recommendations for research practice include (a) describing and addressing the choice of N (sample size) and consequent issues of statistical power, (b) reporting effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), (c) avoiding “questionable research practices” that can inflate the probability of Type I error, (d) making available research materials necessary to replicate reported results, (e) adhering to SPSP’s data sharing policy, (f) encouraging publication of high-quality replication studies, and (g) maintaining flexibility and openness to alternative standards and methods. Recommendations for educational practice include (a) encouraging a culture of “getting it right,” (b) teaching and encouraging transparency of data reporting, (c) improving methodological instruction, and (d) modeling sound science and supporting junior researchers who seek to “get it right.”

Prenatal management of monoamniotic twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVE To evaluate antenatal surveillance strategies and the optimal timing of delivery for monoamniotic twin pregnancies. METHODS Obstetric and perinatal outcomes were retrospectively retrieved for 193 monoamniotic twin pregnancies. Fetal and neonatal outcomes were compared between fetuses followed in an inpatient setting and those undergoing intensive outpatient follow-up from 26 to 28 weeks of gestation until planned cesarean delivery between 32 and 35 weeks of gestation. The risk of fetal death was compared with the risk of neonatal complications. RESULTS Fetal deaths occurred in 18.1% of fetuses (70/386). Two hundred ninety-five neonates from 153 pregnancies were born alive after 23 weeks of gestation. There were 17 neonatal deaths (5.8%), five of whom had major congenital anomalies. The prospective risk of a nonrespiratory neonatal complication was lower than the prospective risk of fetal death after 32 4/7 weeks of gestation (95% confidence interval 32 0/7-33 4/7). The incidence of death or a nonrespiratory neonatal complication was not significantly different between fetuses managed as outpatients (14/106 [13.2%]) or inpatients (15/142 [10.5%]; P=.55). Our statistical power to detect a difference in outcomes between these groups was low. CONCLUSIONS The in utero risk of a monoamniotic twin fetus exceeds the risk of a postnatal nonrespiratory complication at 32 4/7 weeks of gestation. If close fetal surveillance is instituted after 26-28 weeks of gestation and delivery takes place at approximately 33 weeks of gestation, the risk of fetal or neonatal death is low, no matter the surveillance setting. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE II.

Tall cell papillary thyroid carcinoma: new diagnostic criteria and mutations in BRAF and TERT

The tall cell (TC) variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has an unfavorable prognosis. The diagnostic criteria remain inconsistent, and the role of a minor TC component is unclear. Molecular diagnostic markers are not available; however, there are two potential candidates: BRAF V600E and telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations. Using a novel approach, we enriched a collective with PTCs that harbored an adverse outcome, which overcame the limited statistical power of most studies. This enabled us to review 125 PTC patients, 57 of which had an adverse outcome. The proportion of TCs that constituted a poor prognosis was assessed. All of the tumors underwent sequencing for TERT promoter and BRAF V600E mutational status and were stained with an antibody to detect the BRAF V600E mutation. A 10% cutoff for TCs was significantly associated with advanced tumor stage and lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis showed that TCs above 10% were the only significant factor for overall, tumor-specific, and relapse-free survival. Seven percent of the cases had a TERT promoter mutation, whereas 61% demonstrated a BRAF mutation. The presence of TC was significantly associated with TERT promoter and BRAF mutations. TERT predicted highly significant tumor relapse (P<0.001). PTCs comprised of at least 10% TCs are associated with an adverse clinical outcome and should be reported accordingly. BRAF did not influence patient outcome. Nevertheless, a positive status should encourage the search for TCs. TERT promoter mutations are a strong predictor of tumor relapse, but their role as a surrogate marker for TCs is limited.

Bevacizumab continuation versus no continuation after first-line chemotherapy plus bevacizumab in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: a randomized phase III non-inferiority trial (SAKK 41/06)

BACKGROUND Chemotherapy plus bevacizumab is a standard option for first-line treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. We assessed whether no continuation is non-inferior to continuation of bevacizumab after completing first-line chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS In an open-label, phase III multicentre trial, patients with mCRC without disease progression after 4-6 months of standard first-line chemotherapy plus bevacizumab were randomly assigned to continuing bevacizumab at a standard dose or no treatment. CT scans were done every 6 weeks until disease progression. The primary end point was time to progression (TTP). A non-inferiority limit for hazard ratio (HR) of 0.727 was chosen to detect a difference in TTP of 6 weeks or less, with a one-sided significance level of 10% and a statistical power of 85%. RESULTS The intention-to-treat population comprised 262 patients: median follow-up was 36.7 months. The median TTP was 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-5.4] months for bevacizumab continuation versus 2.9 (95% CI 2.8-3.8) months for no continuation; HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.96). Non-inferiority could not be demonstrated. The median overall survival was 25.4 months for bevacizumab continuation versus 23.8 months (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.63-1.1; P = 0.2) for no continuation. Severe adverse events were uncommon in the bevacizumab continuation arm. Costs for bevacizumab continuation were estimated to be ∼30,000 USD per patient. CONCLUSIONS Non-inferiority could not be demonstrated for treatment holidays versus continuing bevacizumab monotheray, after 4-6 months of standard first-line chemotherapy plus bevacizumab. Based on no impact on overall survival and increased treatment costs, bevacizumab as a single agent is of no meaningful therapeutic value. More efficient treatment approaches are needed to maintain control of stabilized disease following induction therapy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00544700.

Associations Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Inflammation, and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis Among Smokers

INTRODUCTION The high risk of cardiovascular events in smokers requires adequate control of other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) to curtail atherosclerosis progression. However, it is unclear which CVRFs have the most influence on atherosclerosis progression in smokers. METHODS In 260 smokers aged 40-70 included in a smoking cessation trial, we analyzed the association between traditional CVRFs, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking cessation and 3-year progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT, assessed by repeated ultrasound measurements) in a longitudinal multivariate model. RESULTS Participants (mean age 52 years, 47% women) had a mean smoking duration of 32 years with a median daily consumption of 20 cigarettes. Baseline CIMT was 1185 μm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1082-1287) and increased by 93 μm (95% CI: 25-161) and 108 μm (95% CI: 33-183) after 1 and 3 years, respectively. Age, male sex, daily cigarette consumption, systolic blood pressure (SBP), but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, were independently associated with baseline CIMT (all P ≤ .05). Baseline SBP, but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, was associated with 3-year atherosclerosis progression (P = .01 at 3 years). The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. We found an increase of 26 μm per each 10-mmHg raise in SBP at 1 year and an increase of 39 μm per each 10 mmHg raise in SBP at 3 years. Due to insufficient statistical power, we could not exclude an effect of smoking abstinence on CIMT progression. CONCLUSION Control of blood pressure may be an important factor to limit atherosclerosis progression in smokers, besides support for smoking cessation. IMPLICATIONS Among 260 smokers aged 40-70 years with a mean smoking duration of 32 years, baseline SBP was associated with atherosclerosis progression over 3 years, as measured by CIMT (P = .01 at 3 years), independently of smoking variables and other CVRFs. The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. Our findings emphasize the importance of focusing not only on smoking cessation among smokers, but to simultaneously control other CVRFs, particularly blood pressure, in order to prevent future cardiovascular disease.

Effect of the REG1 anticoagulation system versus bivalirudin on outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (REGULATE-PCI): a randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND REG1 is a novel anticoagulation system consisting of pegnivacogin, an RNA aptamer inhibitor of coagulation factor IXa, and anivamersen, a complementary sequence reversal oligonucleotide. We tested the hypothesis that near complete inhibition of factor IXa with pegnivacogin during percutaneous coronary intervention, followed by partial reversal with anivamersen, would reduce ischaemic events compared with bivalirudin, without increasing bleeding. METHODS We did a randomised, open-label, active-controlled, multicentre, superiority trial to compare REG1 with bivalirudin at 225 hospitals in North America and Europe. We planned to randomly allocate 13,200 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in a 1:1 ratio to either REG1 (pegnivacogin 1 mg/kg bolus [>99% factor IXa inhibition] followed by 80% reversal with anivamersen after percutaneous coronary intervention) or bivalirudin. Exclusion criteria included ST segment elevation myocardial infarction within 48 h. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and unplanned target lesion revascularisation by day 3 after randomisation. The principal safety endpoint was major bleeding. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT01848106. The trial was terminated early after enrolment of 3232 patients due to severe allergic reactions. FINDINGS 1616 patients were allocated REG1 and 1616 were assigned bivalirudin, of whom 1605 and 1601 patients, respectively, received the assigned treatment. Severe allergic reactions were reported in ten (1%) of 1605 patients receiving REG1 versus one (<1%) of 1601 patients treated with bivalirudin. The composite primary endpoint did not differ between groups, with 108 (7%) of 1616 patients assigned REG1 and 103 (6%) of 1616 allocated bivalirudin reporting a primary endpoint event (odds ratio [OR] 1·05, 95% CI 0·80-1·39; p=0·72). Major bleeding was similar between treatment groups (seven [<1%] of 1605 receiving REG1 vs two [<1%] of 1601 treated with bivalirudin; OR 3·49, 95% CI 0·73-16·82; p=0·10), but major or minor bleeding was increased with REG1 (104 [6%] vs 65 [4%]; 1·64, 1·19-2·25; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION The reversible factor IXa inhibitor REG1, as currently formulated, is associated with severe allergic reactions. Although statistical power was limited because of early termination, there was no evidence that REG1 reduced ischaemic events or bleeding compared with bivalirudin. FUNDING Regado Biosciences Inc.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) selection for genotype-phenotype association studies

With hundreds of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a candidate gene and millions of SNPs across the genome, selecting an informative subset of SNPs to maximize the ability to detect genotype-phenotype association is of great interest and importance. In addition, with a large number of SNPs, analytic methods are needed that allow investigators to control the false positive rate resulting from large numbers of SNP genotype-phenotype analyses. This dissertation uses simulated data to explore methods for selecting SNPs for genotype-phenotype association studies. I examined the pattern of linkage disequilibrium (LD) across a candidate gene region and used this pattern to aid in localizing a disease-influencing mutation. The results indicate that the r2 measure of linkage disequilibrium is preferred over the common D′ measure for use in genotype-phenotype association studies. Using step-wise linear regression, the best predictor of the quantitative trait was not usually the single functional mutation. Rather it was a SNP that was in high linkage disequilibrium with the functional mutation. Next, I compared three strategies for selecting SNPs for application to phenotype association studies: based on measures of linkage disequilibrium, based on a measure of haplotype diversity, and random selection. The results demonstrate that SNPs selected based on maximum haplotype diversity are more informative and yield higher power than randomly selected SNPs or SNPs selected based on low pair-wise LD. The data also indicate that for genes with small contribution to the phenotype, it is more prudent for investigators to increase their sample size than to continuously increase the number of SNPs in order to improve statistical power. When typing large numbers of SNPs, researchers are faced with the challenge of utilizing an appropriate statistical method that controls the type I error rate while maintaining adequate power. We show that an empirical genotype based multi-locus global test that uses permutation testing to investigate the null distribution of the maximum test statistic maintains a desired overall type I error rate while not overly sacrificing statistical power. The results also show that when the penetrance model is simple the multi-locus global test does as well or better than the haplotype analysis. However, for more complex models, haplotype analyses offer advantages. The results of this dissertation will be of utility to human geneticists designing large-scale multi-locus genotype-phenotype association studies. ^

Evaluation of therapist and client language in Motivational Interviewing (MI) sessions: A secondary analysis of data from the Southern Methodist Alcohol Research Trial (SMART) study

In the United States, “binge” drinking among college students is an emerging public health concern due to the significant physical and psychological effects on young adults. The focus is on identifying interventions that can help decrease high-risk drinking behavior among this group of drinkers. One such intervention is Motivational interviewing (MI), a client-centered therapy that aims at resolving client ambivalence by developing discrepancy and engaging the client in change talk. Of late, there is a growing interest in determining the active ingredients that influence the alliance between the therapist and the client. This study is a secondary analysis of the data obtained from the Southern Methodist Alcohol Research Trial (SMART) project, a dismantling trial of MI and feedback among heavy drinking college students. The present project examines the relationship between therapist and client language in MI sessions on a sample of “binge” drinking college students. Of the 126 SMART tapes, 30 tapes (‘MI with feedback’ group = 15, ‘MI only’ group = 15) were randomly selected for this study. MISC 2.1, a mutually exclusive and exhaustive coding system, was used to code the audio/videotaped MI sessions. Therapist and client language were analyzed for communication characteristics. Overall, therapists adopted a MI consistent style and clients were found to engage in change talk. Counselor acceptance, empathy, spirit, and complex reflections were all significantly related to client change talk (p-values ranged from 0.001 to 0.047). Additionally, therapist ‘advice without permission’ and MI Inconsistent therapist behaviors were strongly correlated with client sustain talk (p-values ranged from 0.006 to 0.048). Simple linear regression models showed a significant correlation between MI consistent (MICO) therapist language (independent variable) and change talk (dependent variable) and MI inconsistent (MIIN) therapist language (independent variable) and sustain talk (dependent variable). The study has several limitations such as small sample size, self-selection bias, poor inter-rater reliability for the global scales and the lack of a temporal measure of therapist and client language. Future studies might consider a larger sample size to obtain more statistical power. In addition the correlation between therapist language, client language and drinking outcome needs to be explored.^

Nonlinear dimension reduction in pathway-based genome-wide association analysis

Pathway based genome wide association study evolves from pathway analysis for microarray gene expression and is under rapid development as a complementary for single-SNP based genome wide association study. However, it faces new challenges, such as the summarization of SNP statistics to pathway statistics. The current study applies the ridge regularized Kernel Sliced Inverse Regression (KSIR) to achieve dimension reduction and compared this method to the other two widely used methods, the minimal-p-value (minP) approach of assigning the best test statistics of all SNPs in each pathway as the statistics of the pathway and the principal component analysis (PCA) method of utilizing PCA to calculate the principal components of each pathway. Comparison of the three methods using simulated datasets consisting of 500 cases, 500 controls and100 SNPs demonstrated that KSIR method outperformed the other two methods in terms of causal pathway ranking and the statistical power. PCA method showed similar performance as the minP method. KSIR method also showed a better performance over the other two methods in analyzing a real dataset, the WTCCC Ulcerative Colitis dataset consisting of 1762 cases, 3773 controls as the discovery cohort and 591 cases, 1639 controls as the replication cohort. Several immune and non-immune pathways relevant to ulcerative colitis were identified by these methods. Results from the current study provided a reference for further methodology development and identified novel pathways that may be of importance to the development of ulcerative colitis.^

Cancer screening behaviors among Asian Americans in Houston, Texas

Background: Cancer is the second-leading cause of death in the United States, and Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders are the only racial/ethnic group for which cancer is the leading cause of death. Regular cancer screenings help to identify precancerous lesions and cancer at an earlier stage, when the cancer is more treatable. Ethnic disparities in participation in cancer screenings are also striking, and evidence indicates that Asian Americans may have lower rates of cancer screening participation than other racial/ethnic groups. The Health of Houston Survey 2010 (HHS 2010) is an address-based survey, administered via telephone, website, and mail, of over 5,000 respondents in Houston and Harris County that provides recent data on the health status and needs of the Houston community. HHS 2010 researchers oversampled for Asians and Vietnamese Americans in order to obtain a sample size large enough to obtain statistical power. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to examine the cancer screening behaviors and predictors of Vietnamese and Chinese Americans living in Houston, Texas.^ Methods: This study was a secondary data analysis of HHS 2010 data. The data were analyzed to compare the breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening compliance rates of Vietnamese and Chinese Americans with other racial/ethnic groups in Houston, Texas. Key predictors of participation and barriers to cancer screening were identified.^ Results: The results of this study indicate that in Houston, Vietnamese Americans and Asian Americans as a whole have strikingly lower rates of participation in cancer screenings compared to other ethnic groups. Chinese Americans had the highest rate of noncompliance for mammography of all ethnic groups; Asian Americans and Vietnamese Americans also had high rates of noncompliance. Similarly, Vietnamese and Asian Americans had high rates of noncompliance with colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Importantly, Vietnamese, Chinese, and Asian Americans had by far the worst pap test participation, with noncompliance rates more than double that of all other racial/ethnic groups. In general, the findings indicated several key predictors in cancer screening behaviors, including English language proficiency, years lived in the United States, health insurance, college education, and income; however, the significance and patterns of these variables varied by ethnic group as well as cancer site.^ Conclusions: This secondary analysis highlights the disparities in cancer screening participation among Vietnamese, Chinese, and Asian Americans in Houston, Texas and indicate the need to identify Asian Americans as a high-risk group in need of health promotion attention. Barriers to screening and educational needs appear to be specific to each target ethnic group. Thus, health educators and health professionals in Houston must focus on the specific educational needs of the key ethnic groups that make up the Houston population. Further, more ethnic-specific research is needed to examine the health behaviors and needs of Houston's Asian American subgroups.^

Decomposition of $\rm R\times C$ contingency table chi -square: Application to binned DNA fragment size data and population structure analysis

The purpose of this research is to develop a new statistical method to determine the minimum set of rows (R) in a R x C contingency table of discrete data that explains the dependence of observations. The statistical power of the method will be empirically determined by computer simulation to judge its efficiency over the presently existing methods. The method will be applied to data on DNA fragment length variation at six VNTR loci in over 72 populations from five major racial groups of human (total sample size is over 15,000 individuals; each sample having at least 50 individuals). DNA fragment lengths grouped in bins will form the basis of studying inter-population DNA variation within the racial groups are significant, will provide a rigorous re-binning procedure for forensic computation of DNA profile frequencies that takes into account intra-racial DNA variation among populations. ^

Mg/Ca variability in Globigerinoides ruber tests

Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry microanalysis of fossil and live Globigerinoides ruber from the eastern Indian Ocean reveals large variations of Mg/Ca composition both within and between individual tests from core top or plankton pump samples. Although the extent of intertest and intratest compositional variability exceeds that attributable to calcification temperature, the pooled mean Mg/Ca molar values obtained for core top samples between the equator and >30°S form a strong exponential correlation with mean annual sea surface temperature (Mg/Ca mmol/mol = 0.52 exp**0.076SST°C, r**2 = 0.99). The intertest Mg/Ca variability within these deep-sea core top samples is a source of significant uncertainty in Mg/Ca seawater temperature estimates and is notable for being site specific. Our results indicate that widely assumed uncertainties in Mg/Ca thermometry may be underestimated. We show that statistical power analysis can be used to evaluate the number of tests needed to achieve a target level of uncertainty on a sample by sample case. A varying bias also arises from the presence and varying mix of two morphotypes (G. ruber ruber and G. ruber pyramidalis), which have different mean Mg/Ca values. Estimated calcification temperature differences between these morphotypes range up to 5°C and are notable for correlating with the seasonal range in seawater temperature at different sites.

The Risk of Using the Q Heterogeneity Estimator for Software Engineering Experiments

All meta-analyses should include a heterogeneity analysis. Even so, it is not easy to decide whether a set of studies are homogeneous or heterogeneous because of the low statistical power of the statistics used (usually the Q test). Objective: Determine a set of rules enabling SE researchers to find out, based on the characteristics of the experiments to be aggregated, whether or not it is feasible to accurately detect heterogeneity. Method: Evaluate the statistical power of heterogeneity detection methods using a Monte Carlo simulation process. Results: The Q test is not powerful when the meta-analysis contains up to a total of about 200 experimental subjects and the effect size difference is less than 1. Conclusions: The Q test cannot be used as a decision-making criterion for meta-analysis in small sample settings like SE. Random effects models should be used instead of fixed effects models. Caution should be exercised when applying Q test-mediated decomposition into subgroups.

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.