Flexibility of representational states in working memory

The relationship between working memory (WM) and attention is a highly interdependent one, with evidence that attention determines the state in which items in WM are retained. Through focusing of attention, an item might be held in a more prioritized state, commonly termed as the focus of attention (FOA). The remaining items, although still retrievable, are considered to be in a different representational state. One means to bring an item into the FOA is to use retrospective cues (‘retro-cues’) which direct attention to one of the objects retained in WM. Alternatively, an item can enter a privileged state once attention is directed towards it through bottom-up influences (e.g. recency effect) or by performing an action on one of the retained items (‘incidental’ cueing). In all these cases, the item in the FOA is recalled with better accuracy compared to the other items in WM. Far less is known about the nature of the other items in WM and whether they can be flexibly manipulated in and out of the FOA. We present data from three types of experiments as well as transcranial magnetic stimulation to early visual cortex to manipulate the item inside FOA. Taken together, our results suggest that the context in which items are retained in WM matters. When an item remains behaviourally relevant, despite not being inside the FOA, re-focusing attention upon it can increase its recall precision. This suggests that a non-FOA item can be held in a state in which it can be later retrieved. However, if an item is rendered behaviourally unimportant because it is very unlikely to be probed, it cannot be brought back into the FOA, nor recalled with high precision. Under such conditions, some information appears to be irretrievably lost from WM. These findings, obtained from several different methods, demonstrate quite considerable flexibility with which items in WM can be represented depending upon context. They have important consequences for emerging state-dependent models of WM.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Approach to Equilibrium for a Class of Random Quantum Models of Infinite Range

We consider random generalizations of a quantum model of infinite range introduced by Emch and Radin. The generalizations allow a neat extension from the class l (1) of absolutely summable lattice potentials to the optimal class l (2) of square summable potentials first considered by Khanin and Sinai and generalised by van Enter and van Hemmen. The approach to equilibrium in the case of a Gaussian distribution is proved to be faster than for a Bernoulli distribution for both short-range and long-range lattice potentials. While exponential decay to equilibrium is excluded in the nonrandom l (1) case, it is proved to occur for both short and long range potentials for Gaussian distributions, and for potentials of class l (2) in the Bernoulli case. Open problems are discussed.

Recognising and monitoring high-level behaviours in complex spatial environments

The recognition of activities from sensory data is important in advanced surveillance systems to enable prediction of high-level goals and intentions of the target under surveillance. The problem is complicated by sensory noise and complex activity spanning large spatial and temporal extents. This paper presents a system for recognising high-level human activities from multi-camera video data in complex spatial environments. The Abstract Hidden Markov mEmory Model (AHMEM) is used to deal with noise and scalability The AHMEM is an extension of the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM) that allows us to represent a richer class of both state-dependent and context-free behaviours. The model also supports integration with low-level sensory models and efficient probabilistic inference. We present experimental results showing the ability of the system to perform real-time monitoring and recognition of complex behaviours of people from observing their trajectories within a real, complex indoor environment.

Education, preferences for leisure, and the optimal income tax schedule

Recent advances in dynamic Mirrlees economies have incorporated the treatment of human capital investments as an important dimension of government policy. This paper adds to this literature by considering a two period economy where agents are di erentiated by their preferences for leisure and their productivity, both private information. The fact that productivity is only learnt later in an agent's life introduces uncertainty to agent's savings and human capital choices and makes optimal the use of multi-period tie-ins in the mechanism that characterizes the government policy. We show that optimal policies are often interim ine cient and that the introduction of these ine ciencies may take the form of marginal tax rates on labor income of varying sign and educational policies that include the discouragement of human capital acquisition. With regards to implementation, state-dependent linear taxes implement optimal savings, while human capital policies may require labor income taxes that depend directly on agents' schooling.

Ensaios sobre o fator estocástico de descontos

Este trabalho propõe maneiras alternativas para a estimação consistente de uma medida abstrata, crucial para o estudo de decisões intertemporais, o qual é central a grande parte dos estudos em macroeconomia e finanças: o Fator Estocástico de Descontos (SDF, sigla em Inglês). Pelo emprego da Equação de Apreçamento constrói-se um inédito estimador consistente do SDF que depende do fato de que seu logaritmo é comum a todos os ativos de uma economia. O estimador resultante é muito simples de se calcular, não depende de fortes hipóteses econômicas, é adequado ao teste de diversas especificações de preferência e para a investigação de paradoxos de substituição intertemporal, e pode ser usado como base para a construção de um estimador para a taxa livre de risco. Alternativas para a estratégia de identificação são aplicadas e um paralelo entre elas e estratégias de outras metodologias é traçado. Adicionando estrutura ao ambiente inicial, são apresentadas duas situações onde a distribuição assintótica pode ser derivada. Finalmente, as metodologias propostas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados dos EUA e do Brasil. Especificações de preferência usualmente empregadas na literatura, bem como uma classe de preferências dependentes do estado, são testadas. Os resultados são particularmente interessantes para a economia americana. A aplicação de teste formais não rejeita especificações de preferências comuns na literatura e estimativas para o coeficiente relativo de aversão ao risco se encontram entre 1 e 2, e são estatisticamente indistinguíveis de 1. Adicionalmente, para a classe de preferência s dependentes do estado, trajetórias altamente dinâmicas são estimadas para a tal coeficiente, as trajetórias são confinadas ao intervalo [1,15, 2,05] e se rejeita a hipótese de uma trajetória constante.

Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-ependent pricing

The real effects of an imperfectly credible disinflation depend critically on the extent of price rigidity. Therefore, the study of how policymakers’ credibility affects the outcome of an announced disinflation should not be dissociated from the analysis of the determinants of the frequency of price adjustments. In this paper we examine how credibility affects the outcome of a disinflation in a model with endogenous timedependent pricing rules. Both the initial degree of price ridigity, calculated optimally, and, more notably, the changes in contract length during disinflation play an important role in the explanation of the effects of imperfect credibility. We initially evaluate the costs of disinflation in a setup where credibility is exogenous, and then allow agents to use Bayes rule to update beliefs about the “type” of monetary authority that they face. In both cases, the interaction between the endogeneity of time-dependent rules and imperfect credibility increases the output costs of disinflation, but the pattern of the output path is more realistic in the case with learning.

Securitização de recebíveis da agroenergia: um estudo de caso baseado em títulos do agronegócio

Desde o final da década de 90, a securitização de ativos vem se firmando no mercado brasileiro como uma importante alternativa de captação de recursos. Essa inovação financeira permite às empresa o acesso direto ao mercado de capitais, para a venda de títulos lastreados em suas carteiras de recebíveis, eliminando a intermediação bancária e permitindo reduções no custo de capital, inclusive em comparação com títulos convencionais de dívida corporativa. Os títulos de securitização são em regra emitidos por um veículo de propósito específico (FIDC ou companhia securitizadora), com o objetivo de segregar os riscos do originador/tomador em relação aos créditos securitizados (lastro da emissão). Em 2004, a Lei 11.076 criou os novos títulos do agronegócio (CDA-WA, CDCA, LCA e CRA), inspirada na legislação da securitização imobiliária (SFI - Lei 9.514/97), buscando disponibilizar ao agronegócio uma nova fonte de recursos, via emissão de títulos no mercado de capitais. Desde então, um número crescente de operações estruturadas com esses papéis pôde ser observada, demonstrando sua funcionalidade e potencial. No entanto, o volume de captações públicas mais sofisticadas fundadas na emissão de cotas de FIDCs e de CRAs ainda se apresenta muito reduzida em relação à demanda do agronegócio por financiamento, sobretudo levando-se em conta a representatividade desse setor no Brasil. O setor sucro-energético é provavelmente o segmento do agronegócio que está em melhor posição para o desenvolvimento de operações de securitização, por apresentar características como: escala, padronização dos produtos, grau de consolidação dos grupos empresariais e perspectivas de crescimento, além do forte apelo ambiental. Os papéis associados a esse segmento possuem, dessa forma, um potencial singular para superar a resistência natural de investidores às aplicações financeiras na área agrícola. Este trabalho dedica-se a investigar como o conceito de securitização pode ser aplicado em operações ligadas ao agronegócio, particularmente ao setor sucro-alcooleiro. A partir de um estudo de caso, serão analisados aspectos operacionais de uma emissão pública de CRAs, ressaltando os mecanismos e procedimentos adotados para lidar com as particularidades dos títulos oriundos do agronegócio. O estudo mostra que a estruturação desse tipo de operação apresenta algumas características e desafios diferentes das operações fundadas em outros papéis, porém a priori administráveis a partir das técnicas tradicionais de securitização e da incorporação de mecanismos suplementares de gestão de riscos.

Demand-pull stagflation

This paper explores the possibility of stagflation emanating exc1usively from monetaJy sbocks, without concurrent supply shocks or shifts in potential output. This arises in connection with a tight money paradox. in the context of a fiscal theory of the price leveI. The paper exhibits perfect foresight equilibria with output and inflation fluctuating in opposite direetions as a consequence of small monetary shocks, and also following changes in monetaJy policy regime that launch the economy into hyperinflation or that produce dramatic stabilization of already high inflation. For that purpose, an analytically convenient dynamic general equilibrium macro model is deve10ped wbere nominal rigidities are represented by a cross between staggered two-period contracts and state dependent price adjustment in the presence of menu costs.

Does liquidity constraints matter for Ricardian equivalence?

The paper analysis a general equilibrium model with two periods, several households and a government that has to finance some expenditures in the first period. Households may have some private information either about their type (adverse selection) or about some action levei chosen in the first period that affects the probability of certain states of nature in the second period (moral hazard). Trade of financiai assets are intermediated by a finite collection of banks. Banks objective functions are determined in equilibrium by shareholders. Due to private information it may be optimal for the banks to introduce constraints in the set of available portfolios for each household as wellas household specific asset prices. In particular, households may face distinct interest rates for holding the risk-free asset. The government finances its expenditures either by taxing households in the first period or by issuing bonds in the first period and taxing households in the second period. Taxes may be state-dependent. Suppose government policies are neutml: i) government policies do not affect the distribution of wealth across households; and ii) if the government decides to tax a household in the second period there is a portfolio available for the banks that generates the Mme payoff in each state of nature as the household taxes. Tben, Ricardian equivalence holds if and only if an appropriate boundary condition is satisfied. Moreover, at every free-entry equilibrium the boundary condition is satisfied and thus Ricardian equivalence holds. These results do not require any particular assumption on the banks' objective function. In particular, we do not assume banks to be risk neutral.

Selective Coupling between Theta Phase and Neocortical Fast Gamma Oscillations during REM-Sleep in Mice

TORT, A. B. L. ; SCHEFFER-TEIXEIRA, R ; Souza, B.C. ; DRAGUHN, A. ; BRANKACK, J. . Theta-associated high-frequency oscillations (110-160 Hz) in the hippocampus and neocortex. Progress in Neurobiology , v. 100, p. 1-14, 2013.

Effects of inhibition gastric acid secretion on arterial acid-base status during digestion in the toad Bufo marinus

Digestion affects acid-base status, because the net transfer of HCl from the blood to the stomach lumen leads to an increase in HCO3- levels in both extra- and intracellular compartments. The increase in plasma [HCO3-], the alkaline tide, is particularly pronounced in amphibians and reptiles, but is not associated with an increased arterial pH, because of a concomitant rise in arterial Pco(2) caused by a relative hypoventilation. In this study, we investigate whether the postprandial increase in Paco(2) of the toad Bufo marinus represents a compensatory response to the increased plasma [HCO3-] or a state-dependent change in the control of pulmonary ventilation. To this end, we successfully prevented the alkaline tide, by inhibiting gastric acid secretion with omeprazole, and compared the response to that of untreated toads determined in our laboratory during the same period. In addition, we used vascular infusions of bicarbonate to mimic the alkaline tide in fasting animals. Omeprazole did not affect blood gases, acid-base and haematological parameters in fasting toads, but abolished the postprandial increase in plasma [HCO3-] and the rise in arterial Pco(2) that normally peaks 48 h into the digestive period. Vascular infusion of HCO3-, that mimicked the postprandial rise in plasma [HCO3-], led to a progressive respiratory compensation of arterial pH through increased arterial Pco(2) Thus, irrespective of whether the metabolic alkalosis is caused by gastric acid secretion in response to a meal or experimental infusion of bicarbonate, arterial pH is being maintained by an increased arterial Pco(2). It seems, therefore, that the elevated Pco(2), occuring during the postprandial period, constitutes of a regulated response to maintain pH rather than a state-dependent change in ventilatory control. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variational supersymmetric approach to evaluate Fokker-Planck probability

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Statements on chaos control designs, including a fractional order dynamical system, applied to a MEMS comb-drive actuator

In this work, we deal with a micro electromechanical system (MEMS), represented by a micro-accelerometer. Through numerical simulations, it was found that for certain parameters, the system has a chaotic behavior. The chaotic behaviors in a fractional order are also studied numerically, by historical time and phase portraits, and the results are validated by the existence of positive maximal Lyapunov exponent. Three control strategies are used for controlling the trajectory of the system: State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) Control, Optimal Linear Feedback Control, and Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control. The controls proved effective in controlling the trajectory of the system studied and robust in the presence of parametric errors.

The rigid-flexible nonlinear robotic manipulator: Modeling and control

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)