Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Density of trap states in a polymer field-effect transistor

We report a more accurate method to determine the density of trap states in a polymer field-effect transistor. In the approach, we describe in this letter, we take into consideration the sub-threshold behavior in the calculation of the density of trap states. This is very important since the sub-threshold regime of operation extends to fairly large gate voltages in these disordered semiconductor based transistors. We employ the sub-threshold drift-limited mobility model (for sub-threshold response) and the conventional linear mobility model for above threshold response. The combined use of these two models allows us to extract the density of states from charge transport data much more accurately. We demonstrate our approach by analyzing data from diketopyrrolopyrrole based co-polymer transistors with high mobility. This approach will also work well for other disordered semiconductors in which sub-threshold conduction is important.

Reconsidering pro bono : a comparative analysis of protocols in Australia, the united states, the United Kingdom and Singapore

As of now, there is little evidence on the questions of whether pro bono services are effective, whether lawyer charity is a cheaper way to provide them (because it does cost money to do pro bono), or whether it would in fact be more efficient and effective if firms and attorneys stopped giving their time and instead donated money to the organizations already specializing in these clients and causes. Pro bono may or may not be an efficient way of doing socially important work; at this point, we simply do not know

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Clinton, Bush, and Obama : changing policy and rhetoric in the United States Annual Trafficking in Persons Report

This chapter charts the political transitions in the anti-trafficking agenda and rhetoric of the U.S. Government across three Presidential administrations through a detailed examination of the annual Trafficking in Persons reports released by the Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons between 2001 and 2012. We argue that the transitions in language and focus reflect key tensions that have dominated trafficking discourse throughout the Clinton, Bush and Obama Presidencies. These fissures include debate over law enforcement versus rights-based frameworks, competing approaches on victim protection and identification, and ongoing disputes about the relationship between prostitution and human trafficking.

Foreign-currency and monetary geopolitics of United States and its effects on the future of the international system

The US dollar is still considered as the main strategic deposit among the currencies of different countries of the world and the policies of the World Bank and the International Financial Organizations have been and will always be influenced by the US economy. Despite the economic crises and commercial balance deficits in the United States, dollar has maintained its high position in and its domination over foreign exchanges and foreign-currency deposits of the countries. The novelty of the present research relies on its consideration of the political properties of the governments and the geopolitical effects of these countries on the position of their monetary and foreign-currency policies and consequently, on the international financial organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which can determine the future of international economy and the political relations among countries. Our research proves that the political development of the United States and its geopolitical situation have been of the effective factors on dollar growth; and unless the competitors acquire such a relative advantage, they will not be able to seriously challenge the currency of dollar and the monetary policies of the United States, at least in a short time

Protecting World Heritage sites from the adverse impacts of climate change : obligations for States Parties to the World Heritage Convention

Through its mandate to protect and preserve places of ‘outstanding universal value’, the World Heritage Convention provides an unlikely yet effective tool in global efforts to mitigate climate change. The practical efficacy of the Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses (‘the Strategy’), which represents the World Heritage Committee’s primary response to the threats posed by climate change to World Heritage sites, is undermined by its weak stance on mitigation. This paper argues that the World Heritage Convention imposes stronger obligations on States Parties than those contained in the Strategy, including a duty on States Parties to commit to ‘deep cuts’ in greenhouse gas emissions. In order to ensure the continuing success of the World Heritage Convention States Parties must engage in extensive mitigation strategies without delay.

Creating meaning: the cancer survivorship experiences of young adults in Australia, England and the United States

This cross-cultural research examined the phenomenon of cancer survivorship through an analysis of the experiences of adolescents and young adults diagnosed with cancer in Australia, England and the United States of America. The research enhances understanding of how meaning and identity develop in relation to cancer interpretively and socioculturally, and the implications for quality of life in adulthood. In so doing, the study explored the existential challenges young people confront when negotiating illness, identity formation and meaning-making, amid the complex matrix of youth and life stage transitions, cultural norms and practices, and varied healthcare environments.

Bikeshare's impact on active travel: Evidence from the United States, Great Britain, and Australia

Over 800 cities globally now offer bikeshare programs. One of their purported benefits is increased physical activity. Implicit in this claim is that bikeshare replaces sedentary modes of transport, particularly car use. This paper estimates the median changes in physical activity levels as a result of bikeshare in the cities of Melbourne, Brisbane, Washington, D.C., London, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. This study is the first known multi-city evaluation of the active travel impacts of bikeshare programs. To perform the analysis, data on mode substitution (i.e. the modes that bikeshare replaces) were used to determine the extent of shift from sedentary to active transport modes (e.g. when a car trip is replaced by bikeshare). Potentially offsetting these gains, reductions in physical activity when walking trips are replaced by bikeshare was also estimated. Finally a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to estimate confidence bounds on estimated impacts on active travel given uncertainties in data sources. The results indicate that on average 60% of bikeshare trips replace sedentary modes of transport (from 42% in Minneapolis/St. Paul to 67% in Brisbane). When bikeshare replaces a walking trip, there is a reduction in active travel time because walking a given distance takes longer than cycling. Considering the active travel balance sheet for the cities included in this analysis, bikeshare activity in 2012 has an overall positive impact on active travel time. This impact ranges from an additional 1.4 million minutes of active travel for the Minneapolis/St. Paul bikeshare program, to just over 74 million minutes of active travel for the London program The analytical approach adopted to estimate bikeshare’s impact on active travel may act as the basis for future bikeshare evaluations or feasibility studies.

Prostitution Ideology and Trafficking Policy: The Impact of Political Approaches to Domestic Sex Work on Human Trafficking Policy in Australia and the United States

Debates over the legitimacy and legality of prostitution have characterised human trafficking discourse for the last two decades. This article identifies the extent to which competing perspectives concerning the legitimacy of prostitution have influenced anti-trafficking policy in Australia and the United States, and argues that each nation-state’s approach to domestic sex work has influenced trafficking legislation. The legal status of prostitution in each country, and feminist influences on prostitution law reform, have had a significant impact on the nature of the legislation adopted.

Robbery under arms: Copyright law and the Australia-United States free trade agreement

TThis article considers the radical, sweeping changes to Australian copyright law wrought by the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement 2004 (AUSFTA). It contends that the agreement will result in a “piracy of the public domain”. Under this new regime, copyright owners will be able to obtain greater monopoly profits at the expense of Australian consumers, libraries and research institutions, as well as intermediaries, such as Internet service providers. Part One observes that the copyright term extension in Australia to life of the author plus 70 years for works will have a negative economic and cultural impact — with Australia’s net royalty payments estimated to be up to $88 million higher per year. Part Two argues that the adoption of stronger protection of technological protection measures modelled upon the Digital Millennium Copyright Act 1998 (U.S.) will override domestic policy–making processes, such as the Phillips Fox Digital Agenda Review, and judicial pronouncements such as the Stevens v Sony litigation. Part Three questions whether the new safe harbours protection for Internet service providers will adversely affect the sale of Telstra. This article concludes that there is a need for judicial restraint in interpreting the AUSFTA. There is an urgent call for the Federal Government to pass ameliorating reforms — such as an open–ended defence of fair use and a mechanism for orphan works. There is a need for caution in negotiating future bilateral trade agreements — lest the multinational system for the protection of copyright law be undermined.

Changes in disability, physical/mental health states and quality of life during an 8-Week multimodal physiotherapy programme in patients with chronic non-specific neck pain: A prospective cohort study

Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of an 8-week multimodal physiotherapy programme (MPP), integrating physical land-based therapeutic exercise (TE), adapted swimming and health education, as a treatment for patients with chronic non-specific neck pain (CNSNP), on disability, general health/mental states and quality of life. Methods 175 CNSNP patients from a community-based centre were recruited to participate in this prospective study. Intervention: 60-minute session (30 minutes of land-based exercise dedicated to improving mobility, motor control, resistance and strengthening of the neck muscles, and 30 minutes of adapted swimming with aerobic exercise keeping a neutral neck position using a snorkel). Health education was provided using a decalogue on CNSNP and constant repetition of brief advice by the physiotherapist during the supervision of the exercises in each session. Study outcomes: primary: disability (Neck Disability Index); secondary: physical and mental health states and quality of life of patients (SF-12 and EuroQoL-5D respectively). Differences between baseline data and that at the 8-week follow-up were calculated for all outcome variables. Results Disability showed a significant improvement of 24.6% from a mean (SD) of 28.2 (13.08) at baseline to 16.88 (11.62) at the end of the 8-week intervention. All secondary outcome variables were observed to show significant, clinically relevant improvements with increase ranges between 13.0% and 16.3% from a mean of 0.70 (0.2) at baseline to 0.83 (0.2), for EuroQoL-5D, and from a mean of 40.6 (12.7) at baseline to 56.9 (9.5), for mental health state, at the end of the 8-week intervention. Conclusion After 8 weeks of a MPP that integrated land-based physical TE, health education and adapted swimming, clinically-relevant and statistically-significant improvements were observed for disability, physical and mental health states and quality of life in patients who suffer CNSNP. The clinical efficacy requires verification using a randomised controlled study design.

Tornado damage and impacts on nuclear facilities in the United States

This report provides an overview of the tornado impact on the safe operation and shutdown of nuclear power plants in the United States. The motivation for this review stems from the damage and failure of the Fukushima nuclear power plant on March 11, 2011. That disaster warrants comparison of the safety measures in place within the global nuclear power industry.

Latinos and political advocacy for cancer control in a United States-Mexico border community

Health policy interventions provide powerful tools for addressing health disparities. The Latino community is one of the fastest growing communities in the United States yet is largely underrepresented in government and advocacy efforts. This study includes 42 Latino adults (M age 5 45 years) who participated in focus group discussions and completed a brief questionnaire assessing their experiences with political health advocacy. Qualitative analyses revealed participants considered cancer a concern for the Latino community, but there was a lack of familiarity with political advocacy and its role in cancer control. Participants identified structural, practical, cultural, and contextual barriers to engaging in political health advocacy. This article presents a summary of the findings that suggest alternative ways to engage Latinos in cancer control advocacy.