How reporting and controlling systems can be effectively designed to support the decision-making process: The case of a Software SME

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Interactive spatial decision support for sustainable agroforestry management: a case study in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Forest managers, stakeholders and investors want to be able to evaluate economic, environmental and social benefits in order to improve the outcomes of their decisions and enhance sustainable forest management. This research developed a spatial decision support system that provides: (1) an approach to identify the most beneficial locations for agroforestry projects based on the biophysical properties and evaluate its economic, social and environmental impact; (2) a tool to inform prospective investors and stakeholders of the potential and opportunities for integrated agroforestry management; (3) a simulation environment that enables evaluation via a dashboard with the opportunity to perform interactive sensitivity analysis for key parameters of the project; (4) a 3D interactive geographic visualization of the economic, environmental and social outcomes, which facilitate understanding and eases planning. Although the tool and methodology presented are generic, a case study was performed in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. For the whole study area, it was simulated the most suitable location for three different plantation schemes: monoculture of timber, a specific recipe (cassava, banana and sugar palm) and different recipes per geographic unit. The results indicate that a mixed cropping plantation scheme, with different recipes applied to the most suitable location returns higher economic, environmental and social benefits.

The use of analytical hierarchy process in spatial decision support system for land use management

Geographic information systems give us the possibility to analyze, produce, and edit geographic information. Furthermore, these systems fall short on the analysis and support of complex spatial problems. Therefore, when a spatial problem, like land use management, requires a multi-criteria perspective, multi-criteria decision analysis is placed into spatial decision support systems. The analytic hierarchy process is one of many multi-criteria decision analysis methods that can be used to support these complex problems. Using its capabilities we try to develop a spatial decision support system, to help land use management. Land use management can undertake a broad spectrum of spatial decision problems. The developed decision support system had to accept as input, various formats and types of data, raster or vector format, and the vector could be polygon line or point type. The support system was designed to perform its analysis for the Zambezi river Valley in Mozambique, the study area. The possible solutions for the emerging problems had to cover the entire region. This required the system to process large sets of data, and constantly adjust to new problems’ needs. The developed decision support system, is able to process thousands of alternatives using the analytical hierarchy process, and produce an output suitability map for the problems faced.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Decision-making process of Nova Executivos’ students

Field lab: Consumer insights

Importance of decision-making in a purchasing context – DPS Case Study

This work project has the objective of exploring the importance of making good decisions on supplier selection, so that the purchasing department can contribute to the success of a company. For that it is presented a short bibliography review of the latest insights that were found relevant, on the subjects of purchasing, technology, outsourcing, supplier selection and decision-making techniques. For a better understating on how to deal with a decision-making situation, a case study is also presented: Digital Printing Solutions (DPS) is a Portuguese company that provides complete and integrated printing solutions and has been planning to contract a software supplier. DPS has no formal supplier-selection model and it has to choose between 2 suppliers. The case study was solved using the M-MACBETH software. I have found that complex decisions-making situations can be easily overcome by using the M-MACBETH decision model. Moreover, the usage of a model, instead of decision that follows no formal procedure, provides the decision maker with insights that can be useful to negotiate with the supplier.

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Normal aging and decision-making: a systematic review of the literature of the last 10 years

Objective Conduct a systematic review to investigate whether healthy elderly have deficits in the decision-making process when compared to the young. Methods We performed a systematic search on SciELO, Lilacs, PsycINFO, Scopus and PubMed database with keywords decision making and aging (according to the description of Mesh terms) at least 10 years. Results We found nine studies from different countries, who investigated 441 young and 377 elderly. All studies used the IOWA Gambling Task as a way of benchmarking the process of decision making. The analysis showed that 78% of the articles did not have significant differences between groups. However, 100% of the studies that assessed learning did find relevant differences. Furthermore, studies that observed the behavior of individuals in the face of losses and gains, 60% of articles showed that the elderly has more disadvantageous choices throughout the task. Conclusion: The consulted literature showed no consensus on the existence of differences in performance of the decision-making process between old and young, but it is observed that the elderly has deficits in learning and a tendency to fewer advantageous choices.

Analyzing university spin-offs and supporting decision making in new venture creation

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2008

Network Meta-analysis to Synthesize Evidence for Decision Making in Cardiovascular Research

Abstract Clinical decision-making requires synthesis of evidence from literature reviews focused on a specific theme. Evidence synthesis is performed with qualitative assessments and systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials, typically covering statistical pooling with pairwise meta-analyses. These methods include adjusted indirect comparison meta-analysis, network meta-analysis, and mixed-treatment comparison. These tools allow synthesis of evidence and comparison of effectiveness in cardiovascular research.

Incentive structures in economic experiments : a neuroeconomic analysis of decision making under risk

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2013