Intégration de méthodes de data mining dans le renseignement criminel : analyse par des structures issues de la théorie des graphes dans le profilage des stupéfiants

Data mining can be defined as the extraction of previously unknown and potentially useful information from large datasets. The main principle is to devise computer programs that run through databases and automatically seek deterministic patterns. It is applied in different fields of application, e.g., remote sensing, biometry, speech recognition, but has seldom been applied to forensic case data. The intrinsic difficulty related to the use of such data lies in its heterogeneity, which comes from the many different sources of information. The aim of this study is to highlight potential uses of pattern recognition that would provide relevant results from a criminal intelligence point of view. The role of data mining within a global crime analysis methodology is to detect all types of structures in a dataset. Once filtered and interpreted, those structures can point to previously unseen criminal activities. The interpretation of patterns for intelligence purposes is the final stage of the process. It allows the researcher to validate the whole methodology and to refine each step if necessary. An application to cutting agents found in illicit drug seizures was performed. A combinatorial approach was done, using the presence and the absence of products. Methods coming from the graph theory field were used to extract patterns in data constituted by links between products and place and date of seizure. A data mining process completed using graphing techniques is called ``graph mining''. Patterns were detected that had to be interpreted and compared with preliminary knowledge to establish their relevancy. The illicit drug profiling process is actually an intelligence process that uses preliminary illicit drug classes to classify new samples. Methods proposed in this study could be used \textit{a priori} to compare structures from preliminary and post-detection patterns. This new knowledge of a repeated structure may provide valuable complementary information to profiling and become a source of intelligence.

Multitask learning of environmental spatial data

The present research deals with an application of artificial neural networks for multitask learning from spatial environmental data. The real case study (sediments contamination of Geneva Lake) consists of 8 pollutants. There are different relationships between these variables, from linear correlations to strong nonlinear dependencies. The main idea is to construct a subsets of pollutants which can be efficiently modeled together within the multitask framework. The proposed two-step approach is based on: 1) the criterion of nonlinear predictability of each variable ?k? by analyzing all possible models composed from the rest of the variables by using a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) as a model; 2) a multitask learning of the best model using multilayer perceptron and spatial predictions. The results of the study are analyzed using both machine learning and geostatistical tools.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

A process for mining science & technology documents databases, illustrated for the case of "knowledge discovery and data mining"

This paper presents a process of mining research & development abstract databases to profile current status and to project potential developments for target technologies, The process is called "technology opportunities analysis." This article steps through the process using a sample data set of abstracts from the INSPEC database on the topic o "knowledge discovery and data mining." The paper offers a set of specific indicators suitable for mining such databases to understand innovation prospects. In illustrating the uses of such indicators, it offers some insights into the status of knowledge discovery research*.

Monitoring network optimisation for spatial data classification using support vector machines

The paper presents a novel method for monitoring network optimisation, based on a recent machine learning technique known as support vector machine. It is problem-oriented in the sense that it directly answers the question of whether the advised spatial location is important for the classification model. The method can be used to increase the accuracy of classification models by taking a small number of additional measurements. Traditionally, network optimisation is performed by means of the analysis of the kriging variances. The comparison of the method with the traditional approach is presented on a real case study with climate data.

Inteligência obtida pela aplicação de data mining em base de teses francesas sobre o Brasil

O assunto Brasil foi analisado na base de teses francesas DocThèses, compreendendo os anos de 1969 a 1999. Utilizou-se a técnica de Data Mining como ferramenta para obter inteligência e conhecimento. O software utilizado para a limpeza da base DocThèses foi o Infotrans, e, para a preparação dos dados, empregou-se o Dataview. Os resultados da análise foram ilustrados com a aplicação dos pressupostos da Lei de Zipf, classificando-se as informações em trivial, interessante e ruído, conforme a distribuição de freqüência. Conclui-se que a técnica do Data Mining associada a softwares especialistas é uma poderosa aliada no emprego de inteligência no processo decisório em todos os níveis, inclusive o nível macro, pois oferece subsídios para a consolidação, investimento e desenvolvimento de ações e políticas.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Educational data mining and learning analytics : Clasificación de las matriculaciones de A.D.E. en la UOC

Trabajo de investigación que realiza un estudio clasificatorio de las asignaturas matriculadas en la carrera de Administración y Dirección de Empresas de la UOC en relación a su resultado. Se proponen diferentes métodos y modelos de comprensión del entorno en el que se realiza el estudio.

New kernel functions and learning methods for text and data mining

Recent advances in machine learning methods enable increasingly the automatic construction of various types of computer assisted methods that have been difficult or laborious to program by human experts. The tasks for which this kind of tools are needed arise in many areas, here especially in the fields of bioinformatics and natural language processing. The machine learning methods may not work satisfactorily if they are not appropriately tailored to the task in question. However, their learning performance can often be improved by taking advantage of deeper insight of the application domain or the learning problem at hand. This thesis considers developing kernel-based learning algorithms incorporating this kind of prior knowledge of the task in question in an advantageous way. Moreover, computationally efficient algorithms for training the learning machines for specific tasks are presented. In the context of kernel-based learning methods, the incorporation of prior knowledge is often done by designing appropriate kernel functions. Another well-known way is to develop cost functions that fit to the task under consideration. For disambiguation tasks in natural language, we develop kernel functions that take account of the positional information and the mutual similarities of words. It is shown that the use of this information significantly improves the disambiguation performance of the learning machine. Further, we design a new cost function that is better suitable for the task of information retrieval and for more general ranking problems than the cost functions designed for regression and classification. We also consider other applications of the kernel-based learning algorithms such as text categorization, and pattern recognition in differential display. We develop computationally efficient algorithms for training the considered learning machines with the proposed kernel functions. We also design a fast cross-validation algorithm for regularized least-squares type of learning algorithm. Further, an efficient version of the regularized least-squares algorithm that can be used together with the new cost function for preference learning and ranking tasks is proposed. In summary, we demonstrate that the incorporation of prior knowledge is possible and beneficial, and novel advanced kernels and cost functions can be used in algorithms efficiently.

Educational Data Mining: cerrando el círculo del proceso de aprendizaje en entornos virtuales

Development of methods to explore data from educational settings, to understand better the learning process.

Data mining and mall users profile

Marketing scholars have suggested a need for more empirical research on consumer response to malls, in order to have a better understanding of the variables that explain the behavior of the consumers. The segmentation methodology CHAID (Chi-square automatic interaction detection) was used in order to identify the profiles of consumers with regard to their activities at malls, on the basis of socio-demographic variables and behavioral variables (how and with whom they go to the malls). A sample of 790 subjects answered an online questionnaire. The CHAID analysis of the results was used to identify the profiles of consumers with regard to their activities at malls. In the set of variables analyzed the transport used in order to go shopping and the frequency of visits to centers are the main predictors of behavior in malls. The results provide guidelines for the development of effective strategies to attract consumers to malls and retain them there.

Evaluating multidimensional visualization techniques in data mining tasks

Visual data mining (VDM) tools employ information visualization techniques in order to represent large amounts of high-dimensional data graphically and to involve the user in exploring data at different levels of detail. The users are looking for outliers, patterns and models – in the form of clusters, classes, trends, and relationships – in different categories of data, i.e., financial, business information, etc. The focus of this thesis is the evaluation of multidimensional visualization techniques, especially from the business user’s perspective. We address three research problems. The first problem is the evaluation of projection-based visualizations with respect to their effectiveness in preserving the original distances between data points and the clustering structure of the data. In this respect, we propose the use of existing clustering validity measures. We illustrate their usefulness in evaluating five visualization techniques: Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Sammon’s Mapping, Self-Organizing Map (SOM), Radial Coordinate Visualization and Star Coordinates. The second problem is concerned with evaluating different visualization techniques as to their effectiveness in visual data mining of business data. For this purpose, we propose an inquiry evaluation technique and conduct the evaluation of nine visualization techniques. The visualizations under evaluation are Multiple Line Graphs, Permutation Matrix, Survey Plot, Scatter Plot Matrix, Parallel Coordinates, Treemap, PCA, Sammon’s Mapping and the SOM. The third problem is the evaluation of quality of use of VDM tools. We provide a conceptual framework for evaluating the quality of use of VDM tools and apply it to the evaluation of the SOM. In the evaluation, we use an inquiry technique for which we developed a questionnaire based on the proposed framework. The contributions of the thesis consist of three new evaluation techniques and the results obtained by applying these evaluation techniques. The thesis provides a systematic approach to evaluation of various visualization techniques. In this respect, first, we performed and described the evaluations in a systematic way, highlighting the evaluation activities, and their inputs and outputs. Secondly, we integrated the evaluation studies in the broad framework of usability evaluation. The results of the evaluations are intended to help developers and researchers of visualization systems to select appropriate visualization techniques in specific situations. The results of the evaluations also contribute to the understanding of the strengths and limitations of the visualization techniques evaluated and further to the improvement of these techniques.

Efficiency of distinct data mining algorithms for classifying stress level in piglets from their vocalization

Among the challenges of pig farming in today's competitive market, there is factor of the product traceability that ensures, among many points, animal welfare. Vocalization is a valuable tool to identify situations of stress in pigs, and it can be used in welfare records for traceability. The objective of this work was to identify stress in piglets using vocalization, calling this stress on three levels: no stress, moderate stress, and acute stress. An experiment was conducted on a commercial farm in the municipality of Holambra, São Paulo State , where vocalizations of twenty piglets were recorded during the castration procedure, and separated into two groups: without anesthesia and local anesthesia with lidocaine base. For the recording of acoustic signals, a unidirectional microphone was connected to a digital recorder, in which signals were digitized at a frequency of 44,100 Hz. For evaluation of sound signals, Praat® software was used, and different data mining algorithms were applied using Weka® software. The selection of attributes improved model accuracy, and the best attribute selection was used by applying Wrapper method, while the best classification algorithms were the k-NN and Naive Bayes. According to the results, it was possible to classify the level of stress in pigs through their vocalization.

Using data mining to identify factors that influence the degree of leg injuries in broilers

Locomotor problems prevent the bird to move freely, jeopardizing the welfare and productivity, besides generating injuries on the legs of chickens. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of age, use of vitamin D, the asymmetry of limbs and gait score, the degree of leg injuries in broilers, using data mining. The analysis was performed on a data set obtained from a field experiment in which it was used two groups of birds with 30 birds each, a control group and one treated with vitamin D. It was evaluated the gait score, the asymmetry between the right and left toes, and the degree of leg injuries. The Weka ® software was used in data mining. In particular, C4.5 algorithm (also known as J48 in Weka environment) was used for the generation of a decision tree. The results showed that age is the factor that most influences the degree of leg injuries and that the data from assessments of gait score were not reliable to estimate leg weakness in broilers.