Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2005

Includes bibliography

Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 1999

Includes bibliography

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2009

Includes bibliography

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010

Spanish version available at the Library

Africans in the Southern European countries: Italy, Spain and Portugal

Incluye bibliografía

Trade, investment and fragmentation of the global market: is Latin America lagging behind?

Includes bibliography

Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Informe del II Taller de Gerentes de Organismos de Cuenca en América Latina y el Caribe = Report on the Second Workshop for Managers of River Basin Authorities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Incluye Bibliografía

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and São Paulo, Brazil, 1995–2003

Abstract Background Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and São Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. São Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than São Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

For God'sake! Lift the embargo to Spain

Intorno alla metà degli anni trenta la Spagna diventò il centro dell’attenzione del mondo e tutte le grandi potenze internazionali, vecchie e nuove, vennero coinvolte, in misura diversa, nella guerra civile. Già nell’agosto del 1936, un mese dopo l’esplosione del conflitto, tutti gli Stati più rappresentativi caldeggiavano l’ipotesi di una politica comune di “non intervento”. Il ruolo guida in tal senso venne assunto dal governo inglese, capace di dissuadere, in tempi estremamente rapidi, il governo frontista francese di Leon Blum dall’intento di sostenere economicamente e militarmente il legittimo governo repubblicano spagnolo. La preoccupazione che il conflitto potesse degenerare in uno scontro più generale fu quindi la ragione principale per la quale qualche settimana dopo nacque il “Comitato di Non Intervento”, cui aderirono ben ventisette nazioni europee tra cui Francia, Inghilterra, URSS, Italia, Germania e Portogallo. Il mio progetto di ricerca dottorale esamina il ruolo, le scelte ed i relativi dibattiti in merito all’unica grande potenza, gli Stati Uniti d’America, che, pur scegliendo di rimanere neutrale, si astenne dal partecipare al suddetto Comitato. In ambito statunitense particolare rilievo assumono due aspetti del dibattito politico sulla Spagna: il primo maturato in seno all’Amministrazione Roosevelt, il secondo elaborato dalla componente Liberal della coalizione del New Deal attraverso i settimanali, “The Nation” e “The New Republic”. Il confronto pubblico acceso dalla guerra civile spagnola fu infatti l’occasione per la società civile americana per dibattere apertamente e francamente circa l’opportunità e la capacità della nazione di assumere o meno un ruolo internazionale corrispondente al prestigio socio-economico in via di acquisizione a livello mondiale. Approfondire ed esaminare il dibattito sulla guerra civile spagnola negli USA significa dunque andare alla ricerca delle radici culturali di quello che sarà uno dei più vasti ed articolati confronti politici e teorici del ventesimo secolo: l’internazionalismo americano.

Winter Losses of Honeybee Colonies (Hymenoptera: Apidae): The Role of Infestations With Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) and Varroa destructor (Parasitiformes: Varroidae)

Multiple infections of managed honeybee, Apis mellifera, colonies are inevitable due to the ubiquitous ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor and might be an underlying cause of winter losses. Here we investigated the role of adult small hive beetles, Aethina tumida, alone and in combination with V. destructor for winter losses and for infections with the microsporidian endoparasite Nosema ceranae. We found no significant influence of A. tumida and V destructor alone or in combination on the numbers of N. ceranae spores. Likewise, A. tumida alone had no significant effects on winter losses, which is most likely due to the observed high winter mortality of the adult beetles. Therefore, our data suggest that A. tumida is unlikely to contribute to losses of overwintering honeybee colonies. However, high losses occurred in all groups highly infested with V. destructor, supporting the central role of the mite for colony losses.