Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photosynthetic responses of the coral Montipora digitata to cold temperature stress

Coral bleaching events have become more frequent and widespread, largely due to elevated sea surface temperatures. Global climate change could lead to increased variability of sea surface temperatures, through influences on climate systems, e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Field observations in 1999, following a strong ENSO, revealed that corals bleached in winter after unusually cold weather. To explore the basis for these observations, the photosynthetic responses of the coral species Montipora digitata Studer were investigated in a series of temperature and light experiments. Small replicate coral colonies were exposed to ecologically relevant lower temperatures for varying durations and under light regimes that ranged from darkness to full sunlight. Photosynthetic efficiency was analyzed using a pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometer (F-0, F-m, F-v/F-m), and chlorophyll a (chl a) content and symbiotic dinoflagellate density were analyzed with spectrophotometry and microscopy, respectively. Cold temperature stress had a negative impact on M digitata colonies indicated by decreased photosynthetic efficiency (F-v/F-m), loss of symbiotic dinoflagellates and changes in photosynthetic pigment concentrations. Corals in higher light regimes were more susceptible to cold temperature stress, Moderate cold stress resulted in photoacclimatory responses, but severe cold stress resulted in photodamage, bleaching and increased mortality. Responses to cold temperature stress of M digitata appeared similar to that observed in corals exposed to warmer than normal temperatures, suggesting a common mechanism. The results of this study suggest that corals and coral reefs may also be impacted by exposure to cold as well as warm temperature extremes as climate change occurs.

On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.

INFLUENCIA DE LAS VARIACIONES ECOLÒGICAS Y AMBIENTALES EN LA EMERGENCIA DE FLAVIVIRUS DE IMPORTANCIA SANITARIA EN LA CIUDAD DE CÓRDOBA

El VSLE, desde el año 2002, reemergió como agente etiológico de encefalitis en humanos en América del Sur, generando casos aislados en Argentina. Córdoba sufrió recientemente la introducción de los virus Dengue y VWN y la emergencia del virus SLE como patógeno causante de encefalitis en humanosel cual sorpresivamente, en el verano-otoño de 2005, produjo por primera vez una epidemia de encefalitis en humanos en Córdoba ciudad, inédita para América del sur. Nuestros estudios permitieron conocer que el ciclo de transmisión estaría integrado por mosquitos Cx quinquefasciatus y Cx. interfor y palomas Zenaida auriculata y Columbina picui.Sobre VWN, estrechamente relacionado a VSLE, los primeros antecedentes de actividad en Argentina son del año 2006. Sin embargo, en poblaciones silvestres de aves, confirmamos por seroprevalencia su actividad desde fines del año 2004. Desconocemos el ciclo del VWN en Argentina, aunque, demostramos preliminarmente que Columbina picui actuaría como hospedador en el ciclo de mantenimiento del virus. Estos resultados similares a los obtenidos para el VSLE indicarían que ambos virus podrían compartir hospedadores aviares en Argentina.Las escasas notificaciones sobre WNV en humanos en el país,muestran registros de casos de encefalitis por este virus en las provincias de Chaco, Córdoba y Entre Ríos en 2006 y en Córdoba, Formosa, y Santa Fe en 2007.En referencia a virus Dengue, en el año 1997 ocurrieron los primeros casos autóctonos de esta enfermedad ( Degue 2), en la provincia de Salta, con un total acumulado de casos hasta el 2007 de 4700. En la epidemia ocurrida recientemente en el 2009 el número de casos confirmados por laboratorio y/o nexo epidemiológico superó los 25.000.El virus DEN, junto con los virus SLE y WN co-circulan en tiempo y espacio en las regiones centrales y norte de nuestro país, generando complicaciones a la hora del diagnóstico de casos febriles.Los factores que provocaron la re-emergencia del VSLE y emergencia de los virus DEN y WN en la región central de Argentina se desconocen al presente. La variabilidad climática ligada a ENSO ( El NIño / Southern oscillation) ha demostrado incrementar las enfermedades de transmisión vectorial tales como encefalitis por Murray Valley, malaria, bluuetongue .Considerando que el cambio en las condiciones climáticas y el uso de la tierra observadas en la ciudad de Córdoba y zona rural del arco sur de la laguna de Mar Chiquita podrían influir en la actividad espacio-temporal de los virus DEN, SLE y WN, el objetivo de proyecto es determinar la influencia de las variaciones climáticas y modificaciones ambientales sobre la actividad de flavivirus de importancia sanitaria en las zonas seleccionadas de la provincia de Córdoba. Se generará una Base de Datos obtenidos sobre mosquitos ,aves y metereológicos retrospectivos y prospectivos que serán sometidos A Diversos Análisis Estadísticos. Se desarrollará y aplicará un SIG Para El Estudio De La Influencia De Modificaciones Ambientales Y Climáticas Sobre La Emergencia De Flavivirus. Se Realizarán Inoculaciones Experimentales En Aves Domésticas Y Silvestres A Fin De Evaluar Su Rol Como Hospedadores. Se Realizarán Estudios Experimentales De competencia Vectorial De Aedes Aegypti, Culex Interfor Y Cx. Quinquefasciatus.Se estudiaran factores ambientales y ecológicos de criaderos de Cx quinquefasciatus En La Ciudad De Córdoba Que Afectan Sus Dinámicas Poblacionales Y Factibles De Ser Aplicados En El Diseño De Planes De Vigilancia De Los Virus Sle Y Wn Y Control De Vectores.Así También Se Desarrollarará Un Modelo Para Predecir Posibles CriadeMediante El Uso De Sensores Remotos Satelitales Se Estudiaran Las Fluctuaciónes Espacio-Temporal De Ae. Aegypti.El proyecto brindará la información necesaria para analizar el rol de las variaciones por el cambio climático que sufre la región en la emergencia de enfermedades virales endémicas de transmisión vectorial.

Relación entre anchoveta y otros componentes del ecosistema

Se hipotetiza que la mortalidad por pesca ocasiona efectos ecosistémicos, no sólo sobre la anchoveta, sino también sobre otros componentes del ecosistema, tales como los depredadores tope. El objetivo es realizar simulaciones con un modelo ecotrófico multiespecífico cubriendo el decenio de los años 2000, cambiando la mortalidad por pesca y analizando las variaciones en la biomasa de anchoveta, aves guaneras y lobos marinos. Se usó el Índice de Oscilación Peruano (IOP) para incluir una mediación que afecte la vulnerabilidad de las presas de la anchoveta. Se comparó el ajuste de los datos observados, usando dos tipos de dieta para anchoveta (fitoplanctófaga y zooplanctófaga). Se realizaron proyecciones de la biomasa, cambiando la mortalidad por pesca de 0,0 a 1,4 año-1. Las simulaciones con la dieta zooplanctófaga, que eleva el nivel trófico de la anchoveta de 2,35 a 3,36, produjo un menor ajuste entre los datos observados y simulados. La relación inversa entre la mortalidad por pesca y la biomasa desovante de la anchoveta, mostró que mortalidades por pesca entre 0,8 y 1,4 año-1 estarían asociadas a una biomasa desovante mínima de anchoveta, tomando en consideración sus relaciones multiespecíficas. También se encontró una relación inversa entre la mortalidad por pesca y las poblaciones de aves guaneras y lobos marinos.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

Torrential rainfall in northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: synoptic patterns and WeMO influence

This study presents a catalogue of synoptic patterns of torrential rainfall in northeast of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These circulation patterns were obtained by applying a T-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to a daily data grid (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) at sea level pressure (SLP). The analysis made use of 304 days which recorded >100 mm in one or more stations in provinces of Barcelona, Girona and Tarragona (coastland area of Catalonia) throughout the 1950-2005 period. The catalogue comprises 7 circulation patterns showing a great variety of atmospheric conditions and seasonal or monthly distribution. Likewise, we computed the mean index value of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) for the synoptic patterns obtained by averaging all days grouped in each pattern. The results showed a clear association between the negative values of this teleconnection index and torrential rainfall in northeast of the IP. We therefore put forward the WeMO as an essential tool for forecasting heavy rainfall in northeast of Spain

Response of Eastern Arabian Sea to Extreme climatic Events with Special Reference to Selected Pelagic Fishes

The thesis attempts to study the changes in oceanographic parameters associated with extreme climatic events,the influence of oceanographic as well as meteorological parameters on fishes.The characteristics of major pelagic fishes of southwest coast of India(Oil sardine and Indian mackerel) have been described here.A description on study area and period of study is also described .The impact of extreme climatic events on the oceanographic variability of Eastern Arabian Sea.The extreme climatic event,the Indian Ocean Dipole associated with EI Nino Southern Oscillation is taken into consideration.The variability in oil sardine and mackerel landings of southwest coast of India during the study period.The trend analysis of the landings has been done and also a prediction model is applied for the landings.The influence of environmental parameters on oil sardine as well as mackerel fishery has been explained .With regression analysis ,the significant relation between environmental parameters and fish landings are also been recognized.The prediction of landings is done with these environmental parameters.

Environmental Influences on the Frequency and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones genesis, movement and intensification are highly dependent on its environment both oceanic and atmospheric. This thesis has made a detailed study on the environmental factors related to tropical cyclones of North Indian Ocean basin. This ocean basin has produced only 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually but it has caused maximum loss of human life associated with the strong winds, heavy rain and particularly storm surges that accompany severe cyclones as they strike the heavily populated coastal areas. Atmospheric factors studied in the thesis are the moisture content of the atmosphere, instability of the atmosphere that produces thunderstorms which are the main source of energy for the tropical cyclone, vertical wind shear to which cyclones are highly sensitive and the Sub-Tropical westerly Jetsteram and its Asian high speed center. The oceanic parameters studied are sea surface temperature and heat storage in the top layer of the ocean. A major portion of the thesis has dealt with the three temporal variabilities of tropical cyclone frequency namely intra-seasonal (mainly the influence of Madden Julian Oscillation), inter- annual (the relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation) and decadal variabilities. Regarding decadal variability, a prominent four decade oscillation in the frequency of both tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions unique to the Indian Ocean basin has been brought out. The thesis consists of 9 chapters.

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause.

On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.