Activity-based life cycle costing model for cost estimation and monitoring – Case: manned and autonomous dry bulk carrier

Recent developments in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence have given a push to a wider usage of these technologies in recent years, and nowadays, driverless transport systems are already state-of-the-art on certain legs of transportation. This has given a push for the maritime industry to join the advancement. The case organisation, AAWA initiative, is a joint industry-academia research consortium with the objective of developing readiness for the first commercial autonomous solutions, exploiting state-of-the-art autonomous and remote technology. The initiative develops both autonomous and remote operation technology for navigation, machinery, and all on-board operating systems. The aim of this study is to develop a model with which to estimate and forecast the operational costs, and thus enable comparisons between manned and autonomous cargo vessels. The building process of the model is also described and discussed. Furthermore, the model’s aim is to track and identify the critical success factors of the chosen ship design, and to enable monitoring and tracking of the incurred operational costs as the life cycle of the vessel progresses. The study adopts the constructive research approach, as the aim is to develop a construct to meet the needs of a case organisation. Data has been collected through discussions and meeting with consortium members and researchers, as well as through written and internal communications material. The model itself is built using activity-based life cycle costing, which enables both realistic cost estimation and forecasting, as well as the identification of critical success factors due to the process-orientation adopted from activity-based costing and the statistical nature of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. As the model was able to meet the multiple aims set for it, and the case organisation was satisfied with it, it could be argued that activity-based life cycle costing is the method with which to conduct cost estimation and forecasting in the case of autonomous cargo vessels. The model was able to perform the cost analysis and forecasting, as well as to trace the critical success factors. Later on, it also enabled, albeit hypothetically, monitoring and tracking of the incurred costs. By collecting costs this way, it was argued that the activity-based LCC model is able facilitate learning from and continuous improvement of the autonomous vessel. As with the building process of the model, an individual approach was chosen, while still using the implementation and model building steps presented in existing literature. This was due to two factors: the nature of the model and – perhaps even more importantly – the nature of the case organisation. Furthermore, the loosely organised network structure means that knowing the case organisation and its aims is of great importance when conducting a constructive research.

Software engineering: methods, modeling and teaching

Since the emergence of software engineering in the late 1960's as a response to the software crisis, researchers throughout the world are trying to give theoretical support to this discipline. Several points of view have to be reviewed in order to complete this task. In the middle 70's Frederick Brooks Jr. coined the term "silver bullet" suggesting the solution to several problems rela-ted to software engineering and, hence, we adopted such a metaphor as a symbol for this book. Methods, modeling, and teaching are the insights reviewed in this book. Some work related to these topies is presented by software engineering researchers, led by Ivar Jacobson, one of the most remarkable researchers in this area. We hope our work will contribute to advance in giving the theoretieal support that software engineering needs.

On Effort Estimation in Software Projects

Software engineering is criticized as not being engineering or 'well-developed' science at all. Software engineers seem not to know exactly how long their projects will last, what they will cost, and will the software work properly after release. Measurements have to be taken in software projects to improve this situation. It is of limited use to only collect metrics afterwards. The values of the relevant metrics have to be predicted, too. The predictions (i.e. estimates) form the basis for proper project management. One of the most painful problems in software projects is effort estimation. It has a clear and central effect on other project attributes like cost and schedule, and to product attributes like size and quality. Effort estimation can be used for several purposes. In this thesis only the effort estimation in software projects for project management purposes is discussed. There is a short introduction to the measurement issues, and some metrics relevantin estimation context are presented. Effort estimation methods are covered quite broadly. The main new contribution in this thesis is the new estimation model that has been created. It takes use of the basic concepts of Function Point Analysis, but avoids the problems and pitfalls found in the method. It is relativelyeasy to use and learn. Effort estimation accuracy has significantly improved after taking this model into use. A major innovation related to the new estimationmodel is the identified need for hierarchical software size measurement. The author of this thesis has developed a three level solution for the estimation model. All currently used size metrics are static in nature, but this new proposed metric is dynamic. It takes use of the increased understanding of the nature of the work as specification and design work proceeds. It thus 'grows up' along with software projects. The effort estimation model development is not possible without gathering and analyzing history data. However, there are many problems with data in software engineering. A major roadblock is the amount and quality of data available. This thesis shows some useful techniques that have been successful in gathering and analyzing the data needed. An estimation process is needed to ensure that methods are used in a proper way, estimates are stored, reported and analyzed properly, and they are used for project management activities. A higher mechanism called measurement framework is also introduced shortly. The purpose of the framework is to define and maintain a measurement or estimationprocess. Without a proper framework, the estimation capability of an organization declines. It requires effort even to maintain an achieved level of estimationaccuracy. Estimation results in several successive releases are analyzed. It isclearly seen that the new estimation model works and the estimation improvementactions have been successful. The calibration of the hierarchical model is a critical activity. An example is shown to shed more light on the calibration and the model itself. There are also remarks about the sensitivity of the model. Finally, an example of usage is shown.

Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Types for Embedded Software - A Survey

At present, there is a variety of formalisms for modeling and analyzing the communication behavior of components. Due to a tremendous increase in size and complexity of embedded systems accompanied by shorter time to market cycles and cost reduction, so called behavioral type systems become more and more important. This chapter presents an overview and a taxonomy of behavioral types. The intentions of this taxonomy are to provide a guidance for software engineers and to form the basis for future research.

Software languages engineering: experimental evaluation

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Cost information in engineering design -Potentials and limitations of activity-based costing

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse activity-based costing (ABC) and possible modified versions ofit in engineering design context. The design engineers need cost information attheir decision-making level and the cost information should also have a strong future orientation. These demands are high because traditional management accounting has concentrated on the direct actual costs of the products. However, cost accounting has progressed as ABC was introduced late 1980s and adopted widely bycompanies in the 1990s. The ABC has been a success, but it has gained also criticism. In some cases the ambitious ABC systems have become too complex to build,use and update. This study can be called an action-oriented case study with some normative features. In this thesis theoretical concepts are assessed and allowed to unfold gradually through interaction with data from three cases. The theoretical starting points are ABC and theory of engineering design process (chapter2). Concepts and research results from these theoretical approaches are summarized in two hypotheses (chapter 2.3). The hypotheses are analysed with two cases (chapter 3). After the two case analyses, the ABC part is extended to cover alsoother modern cost accounting methods, e.g. process costing and feature costing (chapter 4.1). The ideas from this second theoretical part are operationalized with the third case (chapter 4.2). The knowledge from the theory and three cases is summarized in the created framework (chapter 4.3). With the created frameworkit is possible to analyse ABC and its modifications in the engineering design context. The framework collects the factors that guide the choice of the costing method to be used in engineering design. It also illuminates the contents of various ABC-related costing methods. However, the framework needs to be further tested. On the basis of the three cases it can be said that ABC should be used cautiously when formulating cost information for engineering design. It is suitable when the manufacturing can be considered simple, or when the design engineers are not cost conscious, and in the beginning of the design process when doing adaptive or variant design. If the design engineers need cost information for the embodiment or detailed design, or if manufacturing can be considered complex, or when design engineers are cost conscious, the ABC has to be always evaluated critically.

Cost-efficient virtual machine management : provisioning, admission control, and consolidation

One of the main challenges in Software Engineering is to cope with the transition from an industry based on software as a product to software as a service. The field of Software Engineering should provide the necessary methods and tools to develop and deploy new cost-efficient and scalable digital services. In this thesis, we focus on deployment platforms to ensure cost-efficient scalability of multi-tier web applications and on-demand video transcoding service for different types of load conditions. Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) clouds provide Virtual Machines (VMs) under the pay-per-use business model. Dynamically provisioning VMs on demand allows service providers to cope with fluctuations on the number of service users. However, VM provisioning must be done carefully, because over-provisioning results in an increased operational cost, while underprovisioning leads to a subpar service. Therefore, our main focus in this thesis is on cost-efficient VM provisioning for multi-tier web applications and on-demand video transcoding. Moreover, to prevent provisioned VMs from becoming overloaded, we augment VM provisioning with an admission control mechanism. Similarly, to ensure efficient use of provisioned VMs, web applications on the under-utilized VMs are consolidated periodically. Thus, the main problem that we address is cost-efficient VM provisioning augmented with server consolidation and admission control on the provisioned VMs. We seek solutions for two types of applications: multi-tier web applications that follow the request-response paradigm and on-demand video transcoding that is based on video streams with soft realtime constraints. Our first contribution is a cost-efficient VM provisioning approach for multi-tier web applications. The proposed approach comprises two subapproaches: a reactive VM provisioning approach called ARVUE and a hybrid reactive-proactive VM provisioning approach called Cost-efficient Resource Allocation for Multiple web applications with Proactive scaling. Our second contribution is a prediction-based VM provisioning approach for on-demand video transcoding in the cloud. Moreover, to prevent virtualized servers from becoming overloaded, the proposed VM provisioning approaches are augmented with admission control approaches. Therefore, our third contribution is a session-based admission control approach for multi-tier web applications called adaptive Admission Control for Virtualized Application Servers. Similarly, the fourth contribution in this thesis is a stream-based admission control and scheduling approach for on-demand video transcoding called Stream-Based Admission Control and Scheduling. Our fifth contribution is a computation and storage trade-o strategy for cost-efficient video transcoding in cloud computing. Finally, the sixth and the last contribution is a web application consolidation approach, which uses Ant Colony System to minimize the under-utilization of the virtualized application servers.

Reliability Estimation of Open Source Software based Computational Systems

Software systems are progressively being deployed in many facets of human life. The implication of the failure of such systems, has an assorted impact on its customers. The fundamental aspect that supports a software system, is focus on quality. Reliability describes the ability of the system to function under specified environment for a specified period of time and is used to objectively measure the quality. Evaluation of reliability of a computing system involves computation of hardware and software reliability. Most of the earlier works were given focus on software reliability with no consideration for hardware parts or vice versa. However, a complete estimation of reliability of a computing system requires these two elements to be considered together, and thus demands a combined approach. The present work focuses on this and presents a model for evaluating the reliability of a computing system. The method involves identifying the failure data for hardware components, software components and building a model based on it, to predict the reliability. To develop such a model, focus is given to the systems based on Open Source Software, since there is an increasing trend towards its use and only a few studies were reported on the modeling and measurement of the reliability of such products. The present work includes a thorough study on the role of Free and Open Source Software, evaluation of reliability growth models, and is trying to present an integrated model for the prediction of reliability of a computational system. The developed model has been compared with existing models and its usefulness of is being discussed.

Techno-economic modelling and cost functions of CO2 capture processes

The paper presents the techno-economic modelling of CO2 capture process in coal-fired power plants. An overall model is being developed to compare carbon capture and sequestration options at locations within the UK, and for studies of the sensitivity of the cost of disposal to changes in the major parameters of the most promising solutions identified. Technological options of CO2 capture have been studied and cost estimation relationships (CERs) for the chosen options calculated. Created models are related to the capital, operation and maintenance cost. A total annualised cost of plant electricity output and amount of CO2 avoided have been developed. The influence of interest rates and plant life has been analysed as well. The CERs are included as an integral part of the overall model.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.