RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Slope stability analysis for fill slopes using finite element limit analysis

This paper investigates the stability of fill slopes often found in embankment cases where frictional fill materials are placed on purely cohesive undrained clay with increasing strength. By using finite element upper and lower bound limit analysis for this investigation, the limit load can be truly bounded. It is known that two-dimensional analysis yields a more conservative result due to plain strain condition when compared to three-dimensional analysis. Therefore, this paper will focus on three-dimensional (3D) slope stability analysis and for comparison purposes two-dimensional analysis results will be employed. In fact, the final results are presented in the form of comprehensive chart solutions for the convenience of practicing engineers during preliminary slope design. The failure mechanism will also be discussed in order to further illustrate the situation during failure. It should be highlighted that the failure mechanisms are obtained through the numerical method itself and no prior assumptions are required, therefore, are more realistic and able to provide a better understanding for the slope failure surfaces.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

Describing ocular aberrations with wavefront vergence maps

A common optometric problem is to specify the eye’s ocular aberrations in terms of Zernike coefficients and to reduce that specification to a prescription for the optimum sphero-cylindrical correcting lens. The typical approach is first to reconstruct wavefront phase errors from measurements of wavefront slopes obtained by a wavefront aberrometer. This paper applies a new method to this clinical problem that does not require wavefront reconstruction. Instead, we base our analysis of axial wavefront vergence as inferred directly from wavefront slopes. The result is a wavefront vergence map that is similar to the axial power maps in corneal topography and hence has a potential to be favoured by clinicians. We use our new set of orthogonal Zernike slope polynomials to systematically analyse details of the vergence map analogous to Zernike analysis of wavefront maps. The result is a vector of slope coefficients that describe fundamental aberration components. Three different methods for reducing slope coefficients to a spherocylindrical prescription in power vector forms are compared and contrasted. When the original wavefront contains only second order aberrations, the vergence map is a function of meridian only and the power vectors from all three methods are identical. The differences in the methods begin to appear as we include higher order aberrations, in which case the wavefront vergence map is more complicated. Finally, we discuss the advantages and limitations of vergence map representation of ocular aberrations.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Ecological and social characterization of key resource areas in Kenyan rangelands

Key resource areas (KRAs), defined as dry season foraging zones for herbivores, were studied relative to the more extensive outlying rangeland areas (non-KRAs) in Kenya. Field surveys with pastoralists, ranchers, scientists and government officials delineated KRAs on the ground. Identified KRAs were mapped based on global positioning and local experts' information on KRAs accessibility and ecological attributes. Using the map of known KRAs and non-KRAs, we examined characteristics of soils, climate, topography, land use/cover attributes at KRAs relative to non-KRAs. How and why do some areas (KRAs) support herbivores during droughts when forage is scarce in other areas of the landscape? We hypothesized that KRAs have fundamental ecological and socially determined attributes that enable them to provide forage during critical times and we sought to characterize some of those attributes in this study. At the landscape level, KRAs took different forms based on forage availability during the dry season but generally occurred in locations of the landscape with aseasonal water availability and/or difficult to access areas during wet season forage abundance. Greenness trends for KRAs versus non-KRAs were evaluated with a 22-year dataset of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Field surveys of KRAs provided qualitative information on KRAs as dry season foraging zones. At the scale of the study, soil attributes did not significantly differ for KRAs compared to non-KRAs. Slopes of KRA were generally steeper compared to non-KRAs and elevation was higher at KRAs. Field survey respondents indicated that animals and humans generally avoid difficult to access hilly areas using them only when all other easily accessible rangeland is depleted of forage during droughts. Understanding the nature of KRAs will support identification, protection and restoration of critical forage hotspots for herbivores by strengthening rangeland inventory, monitoring, policy formulation, and conservation efforts to improve habitats and human welfare. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The urban littoral frontier : land reclamation in the history of human settlements

The urban waterfront may be regarded as the littoral frontier of human settlement. Typically, over the years, it advances, sometimes retreats, where terrestrial and aquatic processes interact and frequently contest this margin of occupation. Because most towns and cities are sited beside water bodies, many of these urban centers on or close to the sea, their physical expansion is constrained by the existence of aquatic areas in one or more directions from the core. It is usually much easier for new urban development to occur along or inland from the waterfront. Where other physical constraints, such as rugged hills or mountains, make expansion difficult or expensive, building at greater densities or construction on steep slopes is a common response. This kind of development, though technically feasible, is usually more expensive than construction on level or gently sloping land, however. Moreover, there are many reasons for developing along the shore or riverfront in preference to using sites further inland. The high cost of developing existing dry land that presents serious construction difficulties is one reason for creating new land from adjacent areas that are permanently or periodically under water. Another reason is the relatively high value of artificially created land close to the urban centre when compared with the value of existing developable space at a greater distance inland. The creation of space for development is not the only motivation for urban expansion into aquatic areas. Commonly, urban places on the margins of the sea, estuaries, rivers or great lakes are, or were once, ports where shipping played an important role in the economy. The demand for deep waterfronts to allow ships to berth and for adjacent space to accommodate various port facilities has encouraged the advance of the urban land area across marginal shallows in ports around the world. The space and locational demands of port related industry and commerce, too, have contributed to this process. Often closely related to these developments is the generation of waste, including domestic refuse, unwanted industrial by-products, site formation and demolition debris and harbor dredgings. From ancient times, the foreshore has been used as a disposal area for waste from nearby settlements, a practice that continues on a huge scale today. Land formed in this way has long been used for urban development, despite problems that can arise from the nature of the dumped material and the way in which it is deposited. Disposal of waste material is a major factor in the creation of new urban land. Pollution of the foreshore and other water margin wetlands in this way encouraged the idea that the reclamation of these areas may be desirable on public health grounds. With reference to examples from various parts of the world, the historical development of the urban littoral frontier and its effects on the morphology and character of towns and cities are illustrated and discussed. The threat of rising sea levels and the heritage value of many waterfront areas are other considerations that are addressed.

Effects of dry density and grain size distribution on soil-water characteristic curves of sandy soils

The unsaturated soil mechanics is receiving increasing attention from researchers and as well as from practicing engineers. However, the requirement of sophisticated devices to measure unsaturated soil properties and time consumption have made the geotechnical engineers keep away from implication of the unsaturated soil mechanics for solving practical geotechnical problems. The application of the conventional laboratory devices with some modifications to measure unsaturated soil properties can promote the application of unsaturated soil mechanics into engineering practice. Therefore, in the present study, a conventional direct shear device was modified to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction. Specially, for the analysis of rain-induced slope failures, it is important to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction where slopes become unstable. The modified device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying path and wetting path of soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs) of soils. The results revealed that the internal friction angle of soil was not significantly affected by the suction and as well as the drying-wetting SWCCs of soils. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as the suction increased. Further, the apparent cohesion obtained from soil in wetting was greater than that obtained from soil in drying. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as the suction increased. In addition, it was observed that soil became more dilative with the increase of suction. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behaviour than that of in drying at the same net normal stress and the suction.

Investigation on parameters used in warning systems for rain-induced embankment instability

A number of instrumented laboratory-scale soil embankment slopes were subjected to artificial rainfall until they failed. The factor of safety of the slope based on real-time measurements of pore-water pressure (suction) and laboratory measured soil properties were calculated as the rainfall progressed. Based on the experiment measurements and slope stability analysis, it was observed that slope displacement measurements can be used to warn the slope failure more accurately. Further, moisture content/pore-water pressure measurements near the toe of the slope and the real-time factor of safety can also be used for prediction of rainfall-induced embankment failures with adequate accuracy.

Workforce gender diversity: Is it a source of competitive advantage?

Research on workforce diversity at the organisational level gained momentum in the 1990s, because of the growing trend in HR research to link HR practices with organisational performance. The new parallel wave of research focused on the business case for diversity, in which diversity was linked to organisational performance. However, the results of these studies, mainly focusing on linear diversity-performance relationships, have been inconsistent. Based on contrasting theories, this paper proposes three competing predictions of the gender diversity-performance relationship at the organisational level: a positive linear relationship derived from the resource-based view of the firm, a negative linear relationship derived from self-categorisation and social identity theories, and a U-shaped curvilinear relationship derived from the integration of the resource-based view of the firm with self-categorisation and social identity theories. The U-shaped relationship accounts for the inconsistent findings in past research, because different proportions of men and women produce different social dynamics that have different effects on organisational performance. Further, the proposed U-shaped relationship can have different slopes in the manufacturing and services industries. The paper contributes to the field of diversity by strengthening its weak theoretical foundations and by highlighting the industry differences.

Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of south-eastern Australia

Soil organic carbon (C) sequestration rates based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to simulate the economic potential for C sequestration in response to conservation tillage in the six agro-ecological zones within the Southern Region of the Australian grains industry. The net C sequestration rate over 20 years for the Southern Region (which includes discounting for associated greenhouse gases) is estimated to be 3.6 or 6.3 Mg C/ha after converting to either minimum or no-tillage practices, respectively, with no-till practices estimated to return 75% more carbon on average than minimum tillage. The highest net gains in C per ha are realised when converting from conventional to no-tillage practices in the high-activity clay soils of the High Rainfall and Wimmera agro-ecological zones. On the basis of total area available for change, the Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the highest net returns, potentially sequestering an additional 7.1 Mt C under no-tillage scenario over 20 years. The economic analysis was summarised as C supply curves for each of the 6 zones expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 years for a price per t C sequestered ranging from zero to AU$200. For a price of $50/Mg C, a total of 427 000 Mg C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <5% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 9.1 Mt for the region. The Wimmera and Mid-North offer the largest gains in C under minimum tillage over 20 years of all zones for all C prices. For the no-tillage scenario, for a price of $50/Mg C, 1.74 Mt C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <10% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 18.6 Mt for the region over 20 years. The Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the best return in C over 20 years under no-tillage for all C prices. The Mallee offers the least return for both minimum and no-tillage scenarios. At a price of $200/Mg C, the transition from conventional tillage to minimum or no-tillage practices will only realise 19% and 33%, respectively, of the total biogeochemical sequestration potential of crop and pasture systems of the Southern Region over a 20-year period.

Application of electrical resistivity method to detect deep cracks in unsaturated residual soil slope

Crack is a significant influential factor in soil slope that could leads to rainfall-induced slope instability. Existence of cracks at soil surface will decrease the shear strength and increase the hydraulic conductivity of soil slope. Although previous research has shown the effect of surface-cracks in soil stability, the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is still unknown. The limited availability of deep crack data due to the difficulty of effective investigate methods could be one of the obstacles. Current technology in electrical resistivity can be used to detect deep-cracks in soil. This paper discusses deep cracks in unsaturated residual soil slopes in Indonesia using electrical resistivity method. The field investigation such as bore hole and SPT tests was carried out at multiple locations in the area where the electrical resistivity testing have been conducted. Subsequently, the results from bore-hole and SPT test were used to verify the results of the electrical resistivity test. This study demonstrates the benefits and limitations of the electrical resistivity in detecting deep-cracks in a residual soil slopes.

Profiling and characterisation of key weather variables and their implication on building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's all eight capital cities are analyzed to characterize the variation profiles of climatic variables. The method of descriptive statistics is employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are used to graphically illustrate the similarity and difference between different study locations. It is found that although the weather variables vary with different locations, except for the extreme parts, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part. The implication of these extreme parts and the slopes of the middle parts on building design is also discussed.