983 resultados para Simulated temperature and precipitation change


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We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

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Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

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The warming of coastal oceans due to climate change is increasing the overwinter survival of tropical fishes transported to temperate latitudes by ocean currents. However, the processes governing early post-arrival mortality are complex and can result in minimum threshold temperatures for overwinter survival, which are greater than those predicted based upon physiological temperature tolerances alone. This 3.5 mo laboratory study monitored the early performance of a tropical damselfish Abudefduf vaigiensis that occurs commonly during austral summer along the SE Australian coast, under nominal summer and winter water temperatures, and compares results with a co-occurring year-round resident of the same family, Parma microlepis. Survivorship, feeding rate, growth and burst swimming ability (as a measure of predator escape ability) were all reduced for the tropical species at winter water temperatures compared to those in summer, whereas the temperate species experienced no mortality and only feeding rate was reduced at colder temperatures. These results suggest that observed minimum threshold survival temperatures may be greater than predicted by physiology alone, due to lowered food intake combined with increased predation risk (a longer time at vulnerable sizes and reduced escape ability). Overwinter survival is a significant hurdle in pole-ward range expansions of tropical fishes, and a better understanding of its complex processes will allow for more accurate predictions of changes in biodiversity as coastal ocean temperatures continue to increase due to climate change.

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This paper describes a simple method to co-precipitate CeO2 and Ce0.8Gd0.2O1.9-delta with ammonium hydroxide from solvents such as: water, ethylene glycol, ethyl alcohol and isopropyl alcohol. Characterization by Raman spectroscopy and XRD evidenced the formation of a solid solution of gadolinium-doped ceria at room temperature. Nanometric particles with crystallite size of 3.1 nm were obtained during synthesis using ethyl alcohol as solvent. This is a promising result compared with those mentioned in the literature, in which the smallest crystallite size reported was, 6.5 nm. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Aluminium Hydroxides were precipitated from Aluminium Nitrate and Ammonium Hydroxide, at the temperatures 64 degrees C (hot) and 25 degrees C (cold), under the pH conditions 5, 7 and 9. The samples were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA). The hydroxide precipitated at pH 9 and 64 degrees C is built up by pseudoboehmite and a minor share of others apparently amorphous hydroxides. The crystallinity of the hot yielded pseudoboehmite diminishes with the pH. The crystallite size was evaluated as about 40 Angstrom for the best crystallized sample. The cold precipitated product is apparently composed by amorphous or very poorly crystallized hydroxides. Upon heating, the cold precipitated hydroxides, and the low pH and hot precipitated hydroxide, release their structural water before the occurrence, about 430 degrees C, of the transition of the pseudoboehmite to gamma-alumina, and exhibit a shifting (towards low temperature side) and a broadening in the peak of the transition to alpha-alumina, which occurs at 1200 degrees C in the pseudoboehmite pattern. The yielded pseudo-boehmite peptized by HNO3, addition and gelified by evaporation in a critical concentration approximately 0.17 gcm(-3).

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This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

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This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of simulated pulpal pressure (SPP) on the variation of intrapulpal temperature (ΔT) and microtensile bond strength (μTBS) to dentin submitted to an adhesive technique using laser irradiation. One hundred sound human molars were randomly divided into two groups (n = 50), according to the presence or absence of SPP (15 cm H2O). Each group was divided into five subgroups (n = 10) according to Nd:YAG laser energy (60, 80, 100, 120, 140 mJ/pulse). The samples were sequentially treated with the following: 37 % phosphoric acid, adhesive (Scotchbond Universal), irradiation with Nd:YAG laser (60 s), and light curing (10 s). ΔT was evaluated during laser irradiation using a type K thermocouple. Next, a composite resin block was build up onto the irradiated area. After 48 h, samples were submitted to microtensile test (10 kgf load cell, 0.5 mm/min). Data were analyzed by two-way ANOVA and Tukey tests (p = 0.05). ANOVA revealed significant differences for ΔT and TBS in the presence of SPP. For ΔT, the highest mean (14.3 ± 3.23 °C)(A) was observed in 140 mJ and without SPP. For μTBS, the highest mean (33.4 ± 4.15 MPa)(A) was observed in 140 mJ and without SPP. SPP significantly reduced both ΔT and μTBS during adhesive procedures, lower laser energy parameters resulted in smaller ΔT, and the laser parameters did not influence the μTBS values.

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Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.

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The Mediterranean Sea is expected to react faster to global change compared to the ocean and is already showing more pronounced warming and acidification rates. A study performed along the Italian western coast showed that porosity of the skeleton increases with temperature in the zooxanthellate (i.e. symbiotic with unicellular algae named zooxanthellae) solitary scleractinian Balanophyllia europaea while it does not vary with temperature in the solitary non-zooxanthellate Leptopsammia pruvoti. These results were confirmed by another study that indicated that the increase in porosity was accompanied by an increase of the fraction of the largest pores in the pore-space, perhaps due to an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures, causing an attenuation of calcification. B. europaea, L. pruvoti and the colonial non-zooxanthellate Astroides calycularis, transplanted along a natural pH gradient, showed that high temperature exacerbated the negative effect of lowered pH on their mortality rates. The growth of the zooxanthellate species did not react to reduced pH, while the growth of the two non-zooxanthellate species was negatively affected. Reduced abundance of naturally occurring B. europaea, a mollusk, a calcifying and a non-calcifying macroalgae were observed along the gradient while no variation was seen in the abundance of a calcifying green alga. With decreasing pH, the mineralogy of the coral and mollusk did not change, while the two calcifying algae decreased the content of aragonite in favor of the less soluble calcium sulphates and whewellite (calcium oxalate), possibly as a mechanism of phenotypic plasticity. Increased values of porosity and macroporosity with CO2 were observed in B. europaea specimens, indicating reduces the resistance of its skeletons to mechanical stresses with increasing acidity. These findings, added to the negative effect of temperature on various biological parameters, generate concern on the sensitivity of this zooxanthellate species to the envisaged global climate change scenarios.

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The end of the Last Glacial Maximum (Termination I), roughly 20 thousand years ago (ka), was marked by cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, a weakening of the Asian monsoon, a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and warming over Antarctica. The sequence of events associated with the previous glacial–interglacial transition (Termination II), roughly 136 ka, is less well constrained. Here we present high-resolution records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and isotopic composition of N2—an atmospheric temperature proxy—from air bubbles in the EPICA Dome C ice core that span Termination II. We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Antarctic temperature started increasing in phase around 136 ka, but in a second phase of Termination II, from 130.5 to 129 ka, the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations lagged that of Antarctic temperature unequivocally. We suggest that during this second phase, the intensification of the low-latitude hydrological cycle resulted in the development of a CO2 sink, which counteracted the CO2 outgassing from the Southern Hemisphere oceans over this period.

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

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Calcareous foraminifera are well known for their CaCO3 shells. Yet, CaCO3 precipitation acidifies the calcifying fluid. Calcification without pH regulation would therefore rapidly create a negative feedback for CaCO3 precipitation. In unicellular organisms, like foraminifera, an effective mechanism to counteract this acidification could be the externalization of H+ from the site of calcification. In this study we show that a benthic symbiont-free foraminifer Ammonia sp. actively decreases pH within its extracellular microenvironment only while precipitating calcite. During chamber formation events the strongest pH decreases occurred in the vicinity of a newly forming chamber (range of gradient about 100 µm) with a recorded minimum of 6.31 (< 10 µm from the shell) and a maximum duration of 7 h. The acidification was actively regulated by the foraminifera and correlated with shell diameters, indicating that the amount of protons removed during calcification is directly related to the volume of calcite precipitated. The here presented findings imply that H+ expulsion as a result of calcification may be a wider strategy for maintaining pH homeostasis in unicellular calcifying organisms.