"Making Sense of Figures": Statistics, Computing and Information Technologies in Agriculture and Biology in Britain, 1920s-1960s

Throughout the twentieth century statistical methods have increasingly become part of experimental research. In particular, statistics has made quantification processes meaningful in the soft sciences, which had traditionally relied on activities such as collecting and describing diversity rather than timing variation. The thesis explores this change in relation to agriculture and biology, focusing on analysis of variance and experimental design, the statistical methods developed by the mathematician and geneticist Ronald Aylmer Fisher during the 1920s. The role that Fisher’s methods acquired as tools of scientific research, side by side with the laboratory equipment and the field practices adopted by research workers, is here investigated bottom-up, beginning with the computing instruments and the information technologies that were the tools of the trade for statisticians. Four case studies show under several perspectives the interaction of statistics, computing and information technologies, giving on the one hand an overview of the main tools – mechanical calculators, statistical tables, punched and index cards, standardised forms, digital computers – adopted in the period, and on the other pointing out how these tools complemented each other and were instrumental for the development and dissemination of analysis of variance and experimental design. The period considered is the half-century from the early 1920s to the late 1960s, the institutions investigated are Rothamsted Experimental Station and the Galton Laboratory, and the statisticians examined are Ronald Fisher and Frank Yates.

Injuries in agriculture-injury severity and mortality

PRINCIPALS Accidents in agriculture are a problem of global importance. The hazards of working in agriculture are manifold (machines, animals, heights). We therefore assessed injury severity and mortality from accidents in farming. METHODS We retrospectively analysed all farming accidents treated over a 12-year period in the emergency department (ED) of our level I trauma centre. RESULTS Out of 815 patients 96.3% were male and 3.7% female (p <0.0001). A total of 70 patients (8.6%, 70/815) were severely injured. Patients with injuries to the chest were most likely to suffer from severe injuries (odds ratio [OR] 9.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.59-16.00, p <0.0001), followed by patients with injuries to the abdomen (OR 7.06, 95% CI 3.22-15.43, p <0.0001) and patients with injuries to the head (OR 5.03, 95% CI 2.99-8.66, p <0.0001). Hospitalisation was associated with machine- and fall-related injuries (OR 22.39, 95% CI 1.95-4.14, p <0.0001 and OR 2.84 95% CI 1.68-3.41 p <0.001, respectively). Patients suffering from a fall and patients with severe injury were more likely to die than others (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.07-10.29, p <0.037 and OR 9.17, 95% CI 6.20-13.56, p <0.0001, respectively). Fall height correlated positively with the injury severity score , hospitalisation and mortality (all p <0.0001). CONCLUSION Injuries in agriculture are accompanied by substantial morbidity and mortality, and range from minor injuries to severe multiple injuries. Additional prospective studies should be conducted on injury severity, long-term disability and mortality.

Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture: Land Grab or Food Security Improvement?

“Large-scale acquisition of land by foreign investors” is the correct term for a process where the verdict of guilt is often quicker than the examination. But is there something really new about land grab except in its extent? In comparison with colonial and post-colonial plantation operations, should foreign investors today behave differently? We generally accept coffee and banana exports as pro-growth and pro-development, just as for cars, beef and insurance. What then is wrong with an investment contract allowing the holder to buy a farm and to export wheat to Saudi Arabia, or soybeans and maize as cattle feed to Korea, or to plant and process sugar cane and palm oil into ethanol for Europe and China? Assuming their land acquisition was legal, should foreigners respect more than investment contracts and national legislation? And why would they not take advantage of the legal protection offered by international investment law and treaties, not to speak of concessional finance, infrastructure and technical cooperation by a development bank, or the tax holidays offered by the host state? Remember Milton Friedman’s often-quoted quip: “The business of business is business!” And why would the governments signing those contracts not know whether and which foreign investment projects are best for their country, and how to attract them? This chapter tries to show that land grab, where it occurs, is not only yet another symptom of regulatory failures at the national level and a lack of corporate social responsibility by certain private actors. National governance is clearly the most important factor. Nonetheless, I submit that there is an international dimension involving investor home states in various capacities. The implication is that land grab is not solely a question whether a particular investment contract is legal or not. This chapter deals with legal issues which seem to have largely escaped the attention of both human rights lawyers and, especially, of investment lawyers. I address this fragmentation between different legal disciplines, rules, and policies, by asking two basic questions: (i) Do governments and parliaments in investor home countries have any responsibility in respect of the behaviour of their investors abroad? (ii) What should they and international regulators do, if anything?

Sustainable development in international law making and trade: International food governance and trade in agriculture

This timely book provides an accessible insight into how the concept of sustainable development can be made operational through its translation into legal terms. Understood as a multidimensional legal principle, sustainable development facilitates coherent international law making. Using this notion as an analytical lens on the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, the book considers the unresolved question of what a sustainable and coherent agricultural trade agreement could look like.

Towards a new balance of trade in agriculture

Trade in agriculture is linked to a whole range of economic, environmental, societal and future interests. For this reason, international regulation of trade in agricultural goods is highly contentious. While mainly directed towards an opening of markets, the WTO Agreement on Agriculture also has some entry points for ‘non trade concerns’. However, the agreement still looks like a casual patchwork that allows rather unsystematic ally for exemptions, without explicitly exposing the grounds that allow for them. The question arises of how the agreement could be drafted in a more structured way, in order to make sure that the economic objectives are efficiently pursued, and at the same time that human rights and environmental concerns are adequately taken account of? The concept of sustainable development provides for a methodical ‘seven step’ framework that gives guidance on integrated decision making processes. In this paper, this framework is partially applied to the Agreement on Agriculture. This working paper served as an introductory note to a brainstorming workshop on the subject that took place on 27 March 2009 at the World Trade Institute, University of Bern.

Concentrations of phosphates and silicon in near-bottom and interstitial waters of the Baltic Sea

Fine structure of vertical distributions of phosphorus and silicon in near-bottom layers and interstitial waters is studied in different regions of the Baltic Sea (Gulf of Finland, Bornholm area, Gotland trench). Data obtained are used to calculate fluxes of mineral forms of phosphorus and silicon in exchange processes between sediments and the near-bottom water layer. Depending on sediment types, values of nutrient fluxes vary from 9.8 to 632.6 µg-at/m**2/day for phosphorus and from 232.4 to 1881.1 µg-at/m**2/day for silicon. Fluxes calculated for different regions are compared.

Aerial Remote Sensing in Agriculture: A Practical Approach to Area Coverage and Path Planning for Fleets of Mini Aerial Robots

In this paper, a system that allows applying precision agriculture techniques is described. The application is based on the deployment of a team of unmanned aerial vehicles that are able to take georeferenced pictures in order to create a full map by applying mosaicking procedures for postprocessing. The main contribution of this work is practical experimentation with an integrated tool. Contributions in different fields are also reported. Among them is a new one-phase automatic task partitioning manager, which is based on negotiation among the aerial vehicles, considering their state and capabilities. Once the individual tasks are assigned, an optimal path planning algorithm is in charge of determining the best path for each vehicle to follow. Also, a robust flight control based on the use of a control law that improves the maneuverability of the quadrotors has been designed. A set of field tests was performed in order to analyze all the capabilities of the system, from task negotiations to final performance. These experiments also allowed testing control robustness under different weather conditions.

Understanding phosphorus diffusion into silicon in a MOVPE environment for III-V on silicon solar cells

Dual-junction solar cells formed by a GaAsP or GaInP top cell and a silicon bottom cell seem to be attractive candidates to materialize the long sought-for integration of III?V materials on silicon for photovoltaic applications. When manufacturing a multi-junction solar cell on silicon, one of the first processes to be addressed is the development of the bottom subcell and, in particular, the formation of its emitter. In this study, we analyze, both experimentally and by simulations, the formation of the emitter as a result of phosphorus diffusion that takes place during the first stages of the epitaxial growth of the solar cell. Different conditions for the Metal-Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (MOVPE) process have been evaluated to understand the impact of each parameter, namely, temperature, phosphine partial pressure, time exposure and memory effects in the final diffusion profiles obtained. A model based on SSupremIV process simulator has been developed and validated against experimental profiles measured by ECV and SIMS to calculate P diffusion profiles in silicon formed in a MOVPE environment taking in consideration all these factors.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and The Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis. Abstract: Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Considering the critical role that water plays for agricultural production, any shock in water availability will have great implications for agricultural production, land allocation, and agricultural prices. In this paper, an Agricultural Multimarket model is developed to analyze climate change impacts in developing countries, accounting for the uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The model has a structure flexible enough to represent local conditions, resource availability, and market conditions. The results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific activity, with many distributional effects across regions