Malaria chemoprophylaxis recommendations for immigrants to Europe, visiting relatives and friends--a Delphi method study.

BACKGROUND: Numbers of travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from Europe to malaria endemic countries are increasing and include long-term and second generation immigrants, who represent the major burden of malaria cases imported back into Europe. Most recommendations for malaria chemoprophylaxis lack a solid evidence base, and often fail to address the cultural, social and economic needs of VFRs. METHODS: European travel medicine experts, who are members of TropNetEurop, completed a sequential series of questionnaires according to the Delphi method. This technique aims at evaluating and developing a consensus through repeated iterations of questionnaires. The questionnaires in this study included questions about professional experience with VFRs, controversial issues in malaria prophylaxis, and 16 scenarios exploring indications for prescribing and choice of chemoprophylaxis. RESULTS: The experience of participants was rather diverse as was their selection of chemoprophylaxis regimen. A significant consensus was observed in only seven of 16 scenarios. The analysis revealed a wide variation in prescribing choices with preferences grouped by region of practice and increased prescribing seen in Northern Europe compared to Central Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the evidence base on efficacy, adherence to chemoprophylaxis and risk of malaria and encouraging discussion among experts, using techniques such as the Delphi method, may reduce the variability in prescription in European travel clinics.

Effective notch method assessment of misalignment for fatigue loaded welds

 The objective of this thesis work was to assess axial misalignment in fatigue loaded welds using the effective notch method. As a result, the fatigue behaviour of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joint under cyclic tensile loading has been studied. Various degrees of axial misalignment have been found in one series of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joints used in a laboratory investigation. As a result, it was important to carry out a comprehensive investigation since axial misalignment forms part of thequality of fatigue loaded structure and can reduce the fatigue strength. To extend the study, the correlation between fatigue strength and stress ratio, as well as stress concentration factor, were also studied. Moreover, a closer investigation of place of crack initiation and its dependence on weld sequence and imperfections of test specimen (angular distortion) was studied. For the fatigue class calculations, FEM (finite element method) and the effectivenotch approach are used. The addressed variable is the axial misalignment whichis introduce by modeling the entire joint. Fracture mechanics based calculations are also used and quantitatively compared with effective notch and experimental results.

Four-corner bone arthrodesis with dorsal rectangular plate: series and personal technique.

Controversy exists about the best method to achieve bone fusion in four-corner arthrodesis. Thirty-five patients who underwent this procedure by our technique were included in the study. Surgical indications were stage II-III SLAC wrist, stage II SNAC wrist and severe traumatic midcarpal joint injury. Mean follow-up was 4.6 years. Mean active flexion and extension were 34 degrees and 30 degrees respectively; grip strength recovery was 79%. Radiological consolidation was achieved in all cases. The mean DASH score was 23 and the postoperative pain improvement by visual analogue scale was statistically significant. Return to work was possible at 4 months for the average patient. Complications were a capitate fracture in one patient and the need for hardware removal in four cases. Four-corner bone wrist arthrodesis by dorsal rectangular plating achieves an acceptable preservation of range of motion with good pain relief, an excellent consolidation rate and minimal complications.

Discription of a New Calculation Method for Determination of Stoichiometric Dissociation Constants of WeakAcid in Salt Solutions from Potentiometric Titration Data

A recently developed calculation method to determine stoichiometric dissociation constants of weak acids from potentiometric titration data is described. The titration data from three different weak acids in aqueous salt solutions at 25 °C were used as examples of the use of the method. The salt alone determined the ionic strength of the solutions considered in this study, and salt molalities up to 0,5 mol kg -1 were used.

Communicating Cost Information to Design Engineers using an Activity-based Costing Method

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method when formulating cost information for the needs of design engineers. This paper suggests that ABC is more useful than the traditional job order costing, but the negative issue is the fact that ABC models become easily too complicated, i.e. expensive to build and maintain, and difficult to use. For engineering design the most suitable elements of ABC are recognizing activities of the company, constructing acitivity chains, identifying resources, activity and cost drivers, as wellas calculating accurate product costs. ABC systems including numerous cost drivers can become complex. Therefore, a comprehensive ABC based cost information system for the use of design engineers should be considered criticaly. Combining the suitable ideas of ABC with engineering oriented thinking could give competentresults.

Potentiometric titration as a method of determining the stoichiometric dissociation constants of weak acids from the thermodynamic dissociation constants of aqueous solutions at 298.15 K

The simple single-ion activity coefficient equation originating from the Debye-Hückel theory was used to determine the thermodynamic and stoichiometric dissociation constants of weak acids from data concerning galvanic cells. Electromotive force data from galvanic cells without liquid junctions, which was obtained from literature, was studied in conjuction with the potentiometric titration data relating to aqueous solutions at 298.15 K. The dissociation constants of weak acids could be determined by the presented techniques and almost all the experimental data studied could be interpreted within the range of experimental error. Potentiometric titration has been used here and the calculation methods were developed to obtain the thermodynamic and stoichiometric dissociation constants of some weak acids in aqueous solutions at 298.15 K. The ionic strength of titrated solutions were adjusted using an inert electrolyte, namely, sodium or potassium chloride. Salt content alonedetermines the ionic strength. The ionic strength of the solutions studied varied from 0.059 mol kg-1 to 0.37 mol kg-1, and in some cases up to 1.0 mol kg-1. The following substances were investigated using potentiometric titration: aceticacid, propionic acid, L-aspartic acid, L-glutamic acid and bis(2,2-dimethyl-3-oxopropanol) amine.

Image guided critical screw placement precision in the cervical spine : important or incidental? : results of a series of 91 consecutive cases using OVEM

Study design: A retrospective study of image guided cervical implant placement precision. Objective: To describe a simple and precise classification of cervical critical screw placement. Summary of Background Data: "Critical" screw placement is defined as implant insertion into a bone corridor which is surrounded circumferentially by neurovascular structures. While the use of image guidance has improved accuracy, there is currently no classification which provides sufficient precision to assess the navigation success of critical cervical screw placement. Methods: Based on postoperative clinical evaluation and CT imaging, the orthogonal view evaluation method (OVEM) is used to classify screw accuracy into grade I (no cortical breach), grade la (screw thread cortical breach), grade II (internal diameter cortical breach) and grade III (major cortical breach causing neural or vascular injury). Grades II and III are considered to be navigation failures, after accounting for bone corridor / screw mismatch (minimal diameter of targeted bone corridor being smaller than an outer screw diameter). Results: A total of 276 screws from 91 patients were classified into grade I (64.9%), grade la (18.1%), and grade II (17.0%). No grade III screw was observed. The overall rate of navigation failure was 13%. Multiple logistic regression indicated that navigational failure was significantly associated with the level of instrumentation and the navigation system used. Navigational failure was rare (1.6%) when the margin around the screw in the bone corridor was larger than 1.5 mm. Conclusions: OVEM evaluation appears to be a useful tool to assess the precision of critical screw placement in the cervical spine. The OVEM validity and reliability need to be addressed. Further correlation with clinical outcomes will be addressed in future studies.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Radio Frequency Measurement Method for Detecting Bearing Currents in Induction Motors

Induction motors are widely used in industry, and they are generally considered very reliable. They often have a critical role in industrial processes, and their failure can lead to significant losses as a result of shutdown times. Typical failures of induction motors can be classified into stator, rotor, and bearing failures. One of the reasons for a bearing damage and eventually a bearing failure is bearing currents. Bearing currents in induction motors can be divided into two main categories; classical bearing currents and inverter-induced bearing currents. A bearing damage caused by bearing currents results, for instance, from electrical discharges that take place through the lubricant film between the raceways of the inner and the outer ring and the rolling elements of a bearing. This phenomenon can be considered similar to the one of electrical discharge machining, where material is removed by a series of rapidly recurring electrical arcing discharges between an electrode and a workpiece. This thesis concentrates on bearing currents with a special reference to bearing current detection in induction motors. A bearing current detection method based on radio frequency impulse reception and detection is studied. The thesis describes how a motor can work as a “spark gap” transmitter and discusses a discharge in a bearing as a source of radio frequency impulse. It is shown that a discharge, occurring due to bearing currents, can be detected at a distance of several meters from the motor. The issues of interference, detection, and location techniques are discussed. The applicability of the method is shown with a series of measurements with a specially constructed test motor and an unmodified frequency-converter-driven motor. The radio frequency method studied provides a nonintrusive method to detect harmful bearing currents in the drive system. If bearing current mitigation techniques are applied, their effectiveness can be immediately verified with the proposed method. The method also gives a tool to estimate the harmfulness of the bearing currents by making it possible to detect and locate individual discharges inside the bearings of electric motors.

Aplicación de algunos modelos de series temporales al mercado de la electricidad en España

Hoy día, todo el mundo tiene un ojo puesto en el Mercado Eléctrico en nuestro país. No existe duda alguna sobre la importancia que tiene el comportamiento de la demanda eléctrica. Una de las peculiaridades de la electricidad que producimos, es que hoy por hoy, no existen aún métodos lo suficientemente efectivos para almacenarla, al menos en grandes cantidades. Por consiguiente, la cantidad demandada y la ofertada/producida deben casar de manera casi perfecta. Debido a estas razones, es bastante interesante tratar de predecir el comportamiento futuro de la demanda, estudiando una posible tendencia y/o estacionalidad. Profundizando más en los datos históricos de las demandas; es relativamente sencillo descubrir la gran influencia que la temperatura ambiente, laboralidad o la actividad económica tienen sobre la respuesta de la demanda. Una vez teniendo todo esto claro, podemos decidir cuál es el mejor método para aplicarlo en este tipo de series temporales. Para este fin, los métodos de análisis más comunes han sido presentados y explicados, poniendo de relieve sus principales características, así como sus aplicaciones. Los métodos en los que se ha centrado este proyecto son en los modelos de alisado y medias móviles. Por último, se ha buscado una relación entre la demanda eléctrica peninsular y el precio final que pagamos por la luz.

Citation auctions as a method to improve selection of scientific papers

This paper describes the basis of citation auctions as a new approach to selecting scientific papers for publication. Our main idea is to use an auction for selecting papers for publication through - differently from the state of the art - bids that consist of the number of citations that a scientist expects to receive if the paper is published. Hence, a citation auction is the selection process itself, and no reviewers are involved. The benefits of the proposed approach are two-fold. First, the cost of refereeing will be either totally eliminated or significantly reduced, because the process of citation auction does not need prior understanding of the paper's content to judge the quality of its contribution. Additionally, the method will not prejudge the content of the paper, so it will increase the openness of publications to new ideas. Second, scientists will be much more committed to the quality of their papers, paying close attention to distributing and explaining their papers in detail to maximize the number of citations that the paper receives. Sample analyses of the number of citations collected in papers published in years 1999-2004 for one journal, and in years 2003-2005 for a series of conferences (in a totally different discipline), via Google scholar, are provided. Finally, a simple simulation of an auction is given to outline the behaviour of the citation auction approach

A Method for Sky-Condition Classification from Ground-Based Solar Radiation Measurements

Identification of clouds from satellite images is now a routine task. Observation of clouds from the ground, however, is still needed to acquire a complete description of cloud conditions. Among the standard meteorologicalvariables, solar radiation is the most affected by cloud cover. In this note, a method for using global and diffuse solar radiation data to classify sky conditions into several classes is suggested. A classical maximum-likelihood method is applied for clustering data. The method is applied to a series of four years of solar radiation data and human cloud observations at a site in Catalonia, Spain. With these data, the accuracy of the solar radiation method as compared with human observations is 45% when nine classes of sky conditions are to be distinguished, and it grows significantly to almost 60% when samples are classified in only five different classes. Most errors are explained by limitations in the database; therefore, further work is under way with a more suitable database

MCMC Analysis Of Classical Time Series Algorithms

Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Orthogonal function method in modelling paper web quality variation

This work is devoted to the analysis of signal variation of the Cross-Direction and Machine-Direction measurements from paper web. The data that we possess comes from the real paper machine. Goal of the work is to reconstruct the basis weight structure of the paper and to predict its behaviour to the future. The resulting synthetic data is needed for simulation of paper web. The main idea that we used for describing the basis weight variation in the Cross-Direction is Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) algorithm, which is closely related to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. Signal forecasting in time is based on Time-Series analysis. Two principal mathematical procedures that we used in the work are Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) modelling and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process.