Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks method for aging Australian Caucasian Populations using multislice Computed Tomography reconstructions of the Pubic Symphyseal Surface

Establishing age-at-death for skeletal remains is a vital component of forensic anthropology. The Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation has been widely utilised since 1986 and relies on a visual assessment of the pubic symphyseal surface in comparison to a series of casts. Inter-population studies (Kimmerle et al., 2005; Djuric et al., 2007; Sakaue, 2006) demonstrate limitations of the S-B method, however, no assessment of this technique specific to Australian populations has been published. Aim: This investigation assessed the accuracy and applicability of the S-B method to an adult Australian Caucasian population by highlighting error rates associated with this technique. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) and contact scans of the S-B casts were performed; each geometrically modelled surface was extracted and quantified for reference purposes. A Queensland skeletal database for Caucasian remains aged 15 – 70 years was initiated at the Queensland Health Forensic and Scientific Services – Forensic Pathology Mortuary (n=350). Three-dimensional reconstruction of the bone surface using innovative volume visualisation protocols in Amira® and Rapidform® platforms was performed. Samples were allocated into 11 sub-sets of 5-year age intervals and changes associated with the surface geometry were quantified in relation to age, gender and asymmetry. Results: Preliminary results indicate that computational analysis was successfully applied to model morphological surface changes. Significant differences in observed versus actual ages were noted. Furthermore, initial morphological assessment demonstrates significant bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis, which is unaccounted for in the S-B method. These results propose refinements to the S-B method, when applied to Australian casework. Conclusion: This investigation promises to transform anthropological analysis to be more quantitative and less invasive using CT imaging. The overarching goal contributes to improving skeletal identification and medico-legal death investigation in the coronial process by narrowing the range of age-at-death estimation in a biological profile.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

A method of extracting switching loss from a high efficiency MOSFET based half bridge converter

The measurement of losses in high efficiency / high power converters is difficult. Measuring the losses directly from the difference between the input and output power results in large errors. Calorimetric methods are usually used to bypass this issue but introduce different problems, such as, long measurement times, limited power loss measurement range and/or large set up cost. In this paper the total losses of a converter are measured directly and switching losses are exacted. The measurements can be taken with only three multimeters and a current probe and a standard bench power supply. After acquiring two or three power loss versus output current sweeps, a series of curve fitting processes are applied and the switching losses extracted.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

A single institution experience of streptozocin/fluorouracil combination chemotherapy : a case series

Background The combination chemotherapy regimen of streptozocin and 5-fluorouracil (FU/STZ) has been used for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumours. Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the use of this regimen in a tertiary oncology referral centre over a 10-year period. Method We retrospectively analysed nine cases from February 2000 to May 2010. Patient demographics, chemotherapy schedule, toxicities, progression-free and overall survival were tabulated for each patient. Result The median progression-free survival was 17 months (range 3-48+ months), and overall survival 31 months (range 12-53+ months) with no toxicity related deaths. Conclusion FU/STZ was a well-tolerated regimen that produced significant benefit in the setting of metastatic and progressive disease. Our case series demonstrated comparable progression-free survival and overall survival in relation to randomized controlled studies and previous case series. © Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2011.

Exact series solutions of reactive transport models with general initial conditions

Exact solutions of partial differential equation models describing the transport and decay of single and coupled multispecies problems can provide insight into the fate and transport of solutes in saturated aquifers. Most previous analytical solutions are based on integral transform techniques, meaning that the initial condition is restricted in the sense that the choice of initial condition has an important impact on whether or not the inverse transform can be calculated exactly. In this work we describe and implement a technique that produces exact solutions for single and multispecies reactive transport problems with more general, smooth initial conditions. We achieve this by using a different method to invert a Laplace transform which produces a power series solution. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we apply it to two example problems with initial conditions that cannot be solved exactly using traditional transform techniques.

Physical activity recognition from accelerometer data using a multi-scale ensemble method

Accurate and detailed measurement of an individual's physical activity is a key requirement for helping researchers understand the relationship between physical activity and health. Accelerometers have become the method of choice for measuring physical activity due to their small size, low cost, convenience and their ability to provide objective information about physical activity. However, interpreting accelerometer data once it has been collected can be challenging. In this work, we applied machine learning algorithms to the task of physical activity recognition from triaxial accelerometer data. We employed a simple but effective approach of dividing the accelerometer data into short non-overlapping windows, converting each window into a feature vector, and treating each feature vector as an i.i.d training instance for a supervised learning algorithm. In addition, we improved on this simple approach with a multi-scale ensemble method that did not need to commit to a single window size and was able to leverage the fact that physical activities produced time series with repetitive patterns and discriminative features for physical activity occurred at different temporal scales.

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

A novel dc-link voltage regulation method for single source hybrid multilevel inverters

This paper presents a novel dc-link voltage regulation technique for a hybrid inverter system formed by cascading two 3-level inverters. The two inverters are named as “bulk inverter” and “conditioning inverter”. For the hybrid system to act as a nine level inverter, conditioning inverter dc link voltage should be maintained at one third of the bulk inverter dc link voltage. Since the conditioning inverter is energized by two series connected capacitors, dc-link voltage regulation should be carried out by controlling the capacitor charging/discharging times. A detailed analysis of conditioning inverter capacitor charging/discharging process and a simplified general rule, derived from the analysis, are presented in this paper. Time domain simulations were carried out to demonstrate efficacy of the proposed method on regulating the conditioning inverter dc-link voltage under various operating conditions.

Simulation-based density estimation for time series using covariate data

This paper proposes a simulation-based density estimation technique for time series that exploits information found in covariate data. The method can be paired with a large range of parametric models used in time series estimation. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate attractive finite sample properties for a range of well-known econometric and financial applications.

Correlation based method for phase identification in a three phase LV distribution network

Low voltage distribution networks feature a high degree of load unbalance and the addition of rooftop photovoltaic is driving further unbalances in the network. Single phase consumers are distributed across the phases but even if the consumer distribution was well balanced when the network was constructed changes will occur over time. Distribution transformer losses are increased by unbalanced loadings. The estimation of transformer losses is a necessary part of the routine upgrading and replacement of transformers and the identification of the phase connections of households allows a precise estimation of the phase loadings and total transformer loss. This paper presents a new technique and preliminary test results for a method of automatically identifying the phase of each customer by correlating voltage information from the utility's transformer system with voltage information from customer smart meters. The techniques are novel as they are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken at the household and at the distribution transformer. Experimental results using a combination of electrical power and current of the real smart meter datasets demonstrate the performance of our techniques.

Structural damage detection method using frequency response functions

Structural damage detection using measured dynamic data for pattern recognition is a promising approach. These pattern recognition techniques utilize artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm to match pattern features. In this study, an artificial neural network–based damage detection method using frequency response functions is presented, which can effectively detect nonlinear damages for a given level of excitation. The main objective of this article is to present a feasible method for structural vibration–based health monitoring, which reduces the dimension of the initial frequency response function data and transforms it into new damage indices and employs artificial neural network method for detecting different levels of nonlinearity using recognized damage patterns from the proposed algorithm. Experimental data of the three-story bookshelf structure at Los Alamos National Laboratory are used to validate the proposed method. Results showed that the levels of nonlinear damages can be identified precisely by the developed artificial neural networks. Moreover, it is identified that artificial neural networks trained with summation frequency response functions give higher precise damage detection results compared to the accuracy of artificial neural networks trained with individual frequency response functions. The proposed method is therefore a promising tool for structural assessment in a real structure because it shows reliable results with experimental data for nonlinear damage detection which renders the frequency response function–based method convenient for structural health monitoring.

Wonder and method

In this paper, my aim is to address the twin concerns raised in this session - models of practice and geographies or spaces of practice - through regarding a selection of works and processes that have arisen from my recent research. Setting up this discussion, I first present a short critique of the idea of models of creative practice, recognising possible problems with the attempt to generalise or abstract its complexities. Working through a series of portraits of my working environment, I will draw from Lefebvre’s Rhythmanalysis as a way of understanding an art practice both spatially and temporally, suggesting that changes and adjustments can occur through attending to both intuitions and observations of the complex of rhythmic layers constantly at play in any event. Reflecting on my recent studio practice I explore these rhythms through the evocation of a twin axis: the horizontal and the vertical and the arcs of difference or change that occur between them, in both spatial and temporal senses. What this analysis suggests is the idea that understanding does not only emerge from the construction of general principles, derived from observation of the particular, but that the study of rhythms allows us to maintain the primacy of the particular. This makes it well suited to a study of creative methods and objects, since it is to the encounter with and expression of the particular that art practices, most certainly my own, are frequently directed.

Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.