Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Experimental support for the make-up hypothesis in nestling tawny owls (Strix aluco)

Body condition can affect coloration of traits used in sexual selection and parent-offspring communication by inducing rapid internal changes in pigment concentration or aggregation, thickness of collagen arrays, or blood flux. The recent "makeup hypothesis" proposes an alternative honesty-reinforcing mechanism, with behaviorally mediated deposition of substances on body surfaces ("cosmetics") generating covariation between body condition and coloration. In birds, the uropygial gland wax is actively spread on feathers using the bill and changes in its deposition rate may cause rapid changes in bill and plumage coloration. Using tawny owl nestlings, we tested 3 predictions of the makeup hypothesis, namely that 1) quantity of preen wax deposited accounts for variation in bill coloration, 2) an immune stimulation (induced by injection of a lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) impairs uropygial gland wax production, and 3) different intensities of immune stimulations (strong vs. weak stimulations induced by injections of either LPS or phytohemagglutinin [PHA], respectively) and high versus low food availabilities result in different bill colorations. We found that 1) preen wax reduced bill brightness, 2) a challenge with LPS impaired uropygial gland development, and 3) nestlings challenged with LPS had a brighter bill than PHA-injected nestlings, whereas diet manipulation had no significant effect. Altogether, these results suggest that a strong immune challenge may decrease preen wax deposition rate on the bill of nestling birds, at least by impairing gland wax production, which causes a change in bill coloration. Our study therefore highlights that cosmetic colors might signal short-term variation in immunological status.

The V-region disease hypothesis: evidence from autoimmune encephalomyelitis.

Experimental allergic encephalomyelitis has been shown to have an immunological basis. In fact, the disease can be induced by T cells specific for myelin basic protein, a molecule found in abundance in the central nervous system. In this article, Ellen Heber-Katz and Hans Acha-Orbea discuss the T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoire of the encephalitogenic T-cell response, and show that a limited V gene pool, in fact a single V beta and two V alpha families, are being used by the PL/J and B10.PL mice and by every rat strain examined, even though the antigenic determinants and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules are different in all cases. This extraordinary finding suggests that the TCR is involved in encephalitogenicity in a way that not only involves the recognition of antigen in association with MHC, but also as an effector molecule that results in encephalitis. If this is true, it implies that TCRs, in general, play more than one role in mammalian physiology.

The economic effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber hypothesis in the German Lands

Many theories, most famously Max Weber s essay on the Protestant ethic, have hypothesizedthat Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerablereligious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, theGerman Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis.Using population figures in a dataset comprising 272 cities in the years 1300 1900, I find no effectsof Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is robust to the inclusion of a varietyof controls, and does not appear to depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition,Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development.I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates ofthe effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results.

Hypothesis on immigration and welfare

The number of hypothesis trying to explain which are the reasons behind the decision to migrate to work into a developed country are diverse and at the same time, difficult to test due to the multiplicity of factors which affect it. This papers attempts to move forward trying to disentangle which are the socio-economic factors that explain the differences in the figures of immigrants in the OECD countries. We show empirical evidence about the determinants of the migratory flows to 17 OECD countries from 65 countries in the 1980-2000 period. Our results reveal the importance to differentiate the inflows composition by at least income in the origin countries. Thus, regarding inflows from non-high-income countries, the results suggest that there is a pull effect from monetary and not real income, and then, the welfare magnets hypothesis should be rejected. This group reacts more to the migratory policy than the inflows coming from high-income countries, although those policies designed to slow down the inflows have not been able, in the aggregate, to reduce them.

The quasi-judicial role of large retailers: An efficiency hypothesis of their relation with suppliers

The paper explores an efficiency hypothesis regarding the contractual process between large retailers, such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour, and their suppliers. The empirical evidence presented supports the idea that large retailers play a quasi-judicial role, acting as "courts of first instance" in their relationships with suppliers. In this role, large retailers adjust the terms of trade to on-going changes and sanction performance failures, sometimes delaying payments. A potential abuse of their position is limited by the need for re-contracting and preserving their reputations. Suppliers renew their confidence in their retailers on a yearly basis, through writing new contracts. This renovation contradicts the alternative hypothesis that suppliers are expropriated by large retailers as a consequence of specific investments.

Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Reproductive and post-reproductive life history of wild-caught Drosophila melanogaster under laboratory conditions.

The life history of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) is well understood, but fitness components are rarely measured by following single individuals over their lifetime, thereby limiting insights into lifetime reproductive success, reproductive senescence and post-reproductive lifespan. Moreover, most studies have examined long-established laboratory strains rather than freshly caught individuals and may thus be confounded by adaptation to laboratory culture, inbreeding or mutation accumulation. Here, we have followed the life histories of individual females from three recently caught, non-laboratory-adapted wild populations of D. melanogaster. Populations varied in a number of life-history traits, including ovariole number, fecundity, hatchability and lifespan. To describe individual patterns of age-specific fecundity, we developed a new model that allowed us to distinguish four phases during a female's life: a phase of reproductive maturation, followed by a period of linear and then exponential decline in fecundity and, finally, a post-ovipository period. Individual females exhibited clear-cut fecundity peaks, which contrasts with previous analyses, and post-peak levels of fecundity declined independently of how long females lived. Notably, females had a pronounced post-reproductive lifespan, which on average made up 40% of total lifespan. Post-reproductive lifespan did not differ among populations and was not correlated with reproductive fitness components, supporting the hypothesis that this period is a highly variable, random 'add-on' at the end of reproductive life rather than a correlate of selection on reproductive fitness. Most life-history traits were positively correlated, a pattern that might be due to genotype by environment interactions when wild flies are brought into a novel laboratory environment but that is unlikely explained by inbreeding or positive mutational covariance caused by mutation accumulation.

Leaf senescence of common bean plants as affected by soil phosphorus supply

Responses of leaf senescence to P supply could constitute adaptive mechanisms for plant growth under P-limiting conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of soil P supply on leaf senescence of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Eight P levels, ranging from 5 to 640 mg kg-1 P, were applied to pots containing four bean plants of cultivar Carioca in 10 kg of an Oxic Haplustult soil. Attached leaves were counted weekly, abscised leaves were collected every other day, and seeds were harvested at maturity. The number of live leaves increased until 48 days after emergence (DAE) and decreased afterwards, irrespective of applied P levels. At lower applied P levels, the initial increase and the final decrease of leaf number was weak, whereas at higher applied P levels the leaf number increased intensively at the beginning of the growth cycle and decreased strongly after 48 DAE. Dry matter and P accumulated in senesced leaves increased as soil P levels increased until 61 DAE, but differences between P treatments narrowed thereafter. The greatest amounts of dry mass and P deposited by senesced leaves were observed at 48-54 DAE for high P levels, at 62-68 DAE for intermediate P levels and at 69-76 DAE for low P levels. These results indicate that soil P supply did not affect the stage of maximal leaf number and the beginning of leaf senescence of common bean plants, but the stage of greatest deposition of senesced leaves occurred earlier in the growth cycle as the soil P supply was raised.

Control of jasmonate biosynthesis and senescence by miR319 targets.

Considerable progress has been made in identifying the targets of plant microRNAs, many of which regulate the stability or translation of mRNAs that encode transcription factors involved in development. In most cases, it is unknown, however, which immediate transcriptional targets mediate downstream effects of the microRNA-regulated transcription factors. We identified a new process controlled by the miR319-regulated clade of TCP (TEOSINTE BRANCHED/CYCLOIDEA/PCF) transcription factor genes. In contrast to other miRNA targets, several of which modulate hormone responses, TCPs control biosynthesis of the hormone jasmonic acid. Furthermore, we demonstrate a previously unrecognized effect of TCPs on leaf senescence, a process in which jasmonic acid has been proposed to be a critical regulator. We propose that miR319-controlled TCP transcription factors coordinate two sequential processes in leaf development: leaf growth, which they negatively regulate, and leaf senescence, which they positively regulate.

In Vivo Persistence of Codominant Human CD8+ T Cell Clonotypes Is Not Limited by Replicative Senescence or Functional Alteration.

T cell responses to viral epitopes are often composed of a small number of codominant clonotypes. In this study, we show that tumor Ag-specific T cells can behave similarly. In a melanoma patient with a long lasting HLA-A2/NY-ESO-1-specific T cell response, reaching 10% of circulating CD8 T cells, we identified nine codominant clonotypes characterized by individual TCRs. These clonotypes made up almost the entire pool of highly differentiated effector cells, but only a fraction of the small pool of less differentiated "memory" cells, suggesting that the latter serve to maintain effector cells. The different clonotypes displayed full effector function and expressed TCRs with similar functional avidity. Nevertheless, some clonotypes increased, whereas others declined in numbers over the observation period of 6 years. One clonotype disappeared from circulating blood, but without preceding critical telomere shortening. In turn, clonotypes with increasing frequency had accelerated telomere shortening, correlating with strong in vivo proliferation. Interestingly, the final prevalence of the different T cell clonotypes in circulation was anticipated in a metastatic lymph node withdrawn 2 years earlier, suggesting in vivo clonotype selection driven by metastases. Together, these data provide novel insight in long term in vivo persistence of T cell clonotypes associated with continued cell turnover but not replicative senescence or functional alteration.

The squeeze cell hypothesis for the activation of jasmonate synthesis in response to wounding

Jasmonates are lipid mediators that control defence gene expression in response to wounding and other environmental stresses. These small molecules can accumulate at distances up to several cm from sites of damage and this is likely to involve cell-to-cell jasmonate transport. Also, and independently of jasmonate synthesis, transport and perception, different long-distance wound signals that stimulate distal jasmonate synthesis are propagated at apparent speeds of several cmmin(-1) to tissues distal to wounds in a mechanism that involves clade 3 GLUTAMATE RECEPTOR-LIKE (GLR) genes. A search for jasmonate synthesis enzymes that might decode these signals revealed LOX6, a lipoxygenase that is necessary for much of the rapid accumulation of jasmonic acid at sites distal to wounds. Intriguingly, the LOX6 promoter is expressed in a distinct niche of cells that are adjacent to mature xylem vessels, a location that would make these contact cells sensitive to the release of xylem water column tension upon wounding. We propose a model in which rapid axial changes in xylem hydrostatic pressure caused by wounding travel through the vasculature and lead to slower, radially dispersed pressure changes that act in a clade 3 GLR-dependent mechanism to promote distal jasmonate synthesis.

P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.