Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exchange of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) between plants and the atmosphere under laboratory and field conditions

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient. It is for human, animal and plants a constituent element of proteins and nucleic acids. Although the majority of the Earth’s atmosphere consists of elemental nitrogen (N2, 78 %) only a few microorganisms can use it directly. To be useful for higher plants and animals elemental nitrogen must be converted to a reactive oxidized form. This conversion happens within the nitrogen cycle by free-living microorganisms, symbiotic living Rhizobium bacteria or by lightning. Humans are able to synthesize reactive nitrogen through the Haber-Bosch process since the beginning of the 20th century. As a result food security of the world population could be improved noticeably. On the other side the increased nitrogen input results in acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems and in loss of biodiversity. Negative health effects arose for humans such as fine particulate matter and summer smog. Furthermore, reactive nitrogen plays a decisive role at atmospheric chemistry and global cycles of pollutants and nutritive substances.rnNitrogen monoxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) belong to the reactive trace gases and are grouped under the generic term NOx. They are important components of atmospheric oxidative processes and influence the lifetime of various less reactive greenhouse gases. NO and NO2 are generated amongst others at combustion process by oxidation of atmospheric nitrogen as well as by biological processes within soil. In atmosphere NO is converted very quickly into NO2. NO2 is than oxidized to nitrate (NO3-) and to nitric acid (HNO3), which bounds to aerosol particles. The bounded nitrate is finally washed out from atmosphere by dry and wet deposition. Catalytic reactions of NOx are an important part of atmospheric chemistry forming or decomposing tropospheric ozone (O3). In atmosphere NO, NO2 and O3 are in photosta¬tionary equilibrium, therefore it is referred as NO-NO2-O3 triad. At regions with elevated NO concentrations reactions with air pollutions can form NO2, altering equilibrium of ozone formation.rnThe essential nutrient nitrogen is taken up by plants mainly by dissolved NO3- entering the roots. Atmospheric nitrogen is oxidized to NO3- within soil via bacteria by nitrogen fixation or ammonium formation and nitrification. Additionally atmospheric NO2 uptake occurs directly by stomata. Inside the apoplast NO2 is disproportionated to nitrate and nitrite (NO2-), which can enter the plant metabolic processes. The enzymes nitrate and nitrite reductase convert nitrate and nitrite to ammonium (NH4+). NO2 gas exchange is controlled by pressure gradients inside the leaves, the stomatal aperture and leaf resistances. Plant stomatal regulation is affected by climate factors like light intensity, temperature and water vapor pressure deficit. rnThis thesis wants to contribute to the comprehension of the effects of vegetation in the atmospheric NO2 cycle and to discuss the NO2 compensation point concentration (mcomp,NO2). Therefore, NO2 exchange between the atmosphere and spruce (Picea abies) on leaf level was detected by a dynamic plant chamber system under labo¬ratory and field conditions. Measurements took place during the EGER project (June-July 2008). Additionally NO2 data collected during the ECHO project (July 2003) on oak (Quercus robur) were analyzed. The used measuring system allowed simultaneously determina¬tion of NO, NO2, O3, CO2 and H2O exchange rates. Calculations of NO, NO2 and O3 fluxes based on generally small differences (∆mi) measured between inlet and outlet of the chamber. Consequently a high accuracy and specificity of the analyzer is necessary. To achieve these requirements a highly specific NO/NO2 analyzer was used and the whole measurement system was optimized to an enduring measurement precision.rnData analysis resulted in a significant mcomp,NO2 only if statistical significance of ∆mi was detected. Consequently, significance of ∆mi was used as a data quality criterion. Photo-chemical reactions of the NO-NO2-O3 triad in the dynamic plant chamber’s volume must be considered for the determination of NO, NO2, O3 exchange rates, other¬wise deposition velocity (vdep,NO2) and mcomp,NO2 will be overestimated. No significant mcomp,NO2 for spruce could be determined under laboratory conditions, but under field conditions mcomp,NO2 could be identified between 0.17 and 0.65 ppb and vdep,NO2 between 0.07 and 0.42 mm s-1. Analyzing field data of oak, no NO2 compensation point concentration could be determined, vdep,NO2 ranged between 0.6 and 2.71 mm s-1. There is increasing indication that forests are mainly a sink for NO2 and potential NO2 emissions are low. Only when assuming high NO soil emissions, more NO2 can be formed by reaction with O3 than plants are able to take up. Under these circumstance forests can be a source for NO2.

Magnetization exchange with water and T(1) relaxation of the downfield resonances in human brain spectra at 3.0 T

The use of water suppression for in vivo proton MR spectroscopy diminishes the signal intensities from resonances that undergo magnetization exchange with water, particularly those downfield of water. To investigate these exchangeable resonances, an inversion transfer experiment was performed using the metabolite cycling technique for non-water-suppressed MR spectroscopy from a large brain voxel in 11 healthy volunteers at 3.0 T. The exchange rates of the most prominent peaks downfield of water were found to range from 0.5 to 8.9 s(-1), while the T(1) relaxation times in absence of exchange were found to range from 175 to 525 ms. These findings may help toward the assignments of the downfield resonances and a better understanding of the sources of contrast in chemical exchange saturation transfer imaging.

Poverty in Slovenia: A Conseqence of Economic Transition

Slovenia is considered to be one of the most successful Central and Eastern European countries undergoing the process of transition. It has a high GDP per capita (the highest in the Visegrad group) amounting to about 7200 US dollars (at the exchange rates pertaining during Ms. Stropnik's research). In 1994, a low rate of inflation, a low level of public debt and almost balanced public finances, were all positive elements. However, there is a darker side, for instance the dramatic increase in unemployment and (somewhat less dramatic) fall in production during the transition period. This analysis aimed to provide insights into what is actually happening at the household level, since households are the ultimate bearers of macroeconomic and social change. The final output totalled 166 pages in English and Slovenian, available also on disc. The income concept used by Ms. Stropnik is that of the disposable (monetary) household income, i.e. the cash income of all household members - including social security transfers and family benefits, and the net sum of taxes and social security contributions - plus the equivalent of domestic production, used in the household. Non-monetary income sources, such as household own production, benefits in kind, subsidies for goods and services, and fringe benefits, were not taken into account. The concept of relative and objective poverty was followed. Poverty means having less than others in society, it is a state of relative deprivation. Objective aspects of the situation, e.g. command over resources (i.e. the household income) and the relative position of the household in the income distribution, determine who is poor and who is not. Changes in household composition - an increase in the number of pensioners, unemployed and self-employed, concomitant with a large decrease in the number of employees - obviously played a part in the changing structure of household income sources during this period. The overall decrease in the share of wages and salaries from primary employment in 1993 is to be observed in all income deciles. On the other hand, the importance of salaries gained from secondary employment has increased in all deciles. The lower seven deciles experienced a sharp rise in the share of social benefits in the period 1988-1993, mostly because of the increase in the number of persons entitled to claim unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, income inequality has increased considerably during the 1988-1993 period. To make matters worse, the large increase in income inequality occurred in a period of falling real incomes. In 1983 the bottom decile disposed of 3.8 percent and the top decile disposed of 23.4 percent of total monetary income in Slovenia, whereas by 1993 the same statistics revealed 3.1 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. Unemployment greatly increases the risk of living in poverty. In 1993, 35 per cent of all unemployed persons in Slovenia were living in the lowest income quintile. Ms. Stropnik found certain features that were specific to Slovenia and not shared by most countries in transition. For example, the relative income position of pensioners has improved. Retirement did not increase the risk of poverty in 1993 as much as it did in 1983 and 1988. Also, it appears that children have not been particularly hard-hit by the transition upheavals. The incidence of poverty amongst children has not increased in the period 1983-1993. Children were also fairly evenly distributed across income quintiles. In 1983, 11.8 percent of households with children aged 18 or less were poor. In 1993, this figure was 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, poor households with children were, in comparison with other households of the same type, poorer in 1993 than in 1983. Ms. Stropnik also analysed the impact of social transfers. Her conclusion was that the level of social transfers prevented them from being successful in alleviating poverty. Family policy transfers (child allowances, child tax allowances, subsidised child care) did, however, contribute to the lowering of income inequality between families with and without children, and amongst families with different numbers of children. Ms. Stropnik is determined that the results of her research be used in the creation of social policy aimed at helping the poor. She quotes Piachaud approvingly: "If the term 'poverty' carries with it the implication and moral imperative that something should be done about it, then the study of poverty is only ultimately justifiable if it influences individual and social attitudes and actions."

Exchange Market Pressure on the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1925-1931

An investigation of exchange market pressure against the pound sterling during the inter-war period. The main findings are that a) the behavior of UK fundamentals relative to those of the USA help to explain exchange market pressure against the pound; b) during the run up to devaluation in September 1931 the monetary authorities in the UK were acting to reduce domestic credit; but that c) additional pressure was brought against the pound from speculative sources. These findings relate to current thinking on the choice of exchange rate regime as even well behaved fundamentals may not be sufficient to sustain a currency on its peg.

Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Overshooting, and Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop an open economy macroeconomic model with real capital accumulation and microeconomic foundations. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but potentially twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through international portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

The Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

What Explains Real and Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations? Evidence from SVAR Analysis for India

This study empirically analyzes the sources of the exchange rate fluctuations in India by employing the structural VAR model. The VAR system consists of three variables, i.e., the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate, and the relative output of India and a foreign country. Consistent with most previous studies, the empirical evidence demonstrates that real shocks are the main drives of the fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates, indicating that the central bank cannot maintain the real exchange rate at its desired level over time.

Transition from black to official markets for foreign exchange in Myanmar

We address the puzzle why the black market for foreign exchange thrives in Myanmar despite the successful unification of multiple exchange rates. A closer look at the black market reveals that its enduring competitiveness stems from its lower transaction costs. A question arising from this observation is how the official market, namely banks, can compete with and replace the black market. Our empirical analysis based on an original questionnaire survey of private export firms regarding their choices of currency trading modes suggests that banks can attract exporters by exploiting the economies of scope between currency trading and lending.

Fractionation factors and activation energies for exchange of the low barrier hydrogen bonding proton in peptidyl trifluoromethyl ketone complexes of chymotrypsin

NMR investigations have been carried out of complexes between bovine chymotrypsin Aα and a series of four peptidyl trifluoromethyl ketones, listed here in order of increasing affinity for chymotrypsin: N-Acetyl-l-Phe-CF3, N-Acetyl-Gly-l-Phe-CF3, N-Acetyl-l-Val-l-Phe-CF3, and N-Acetyl-l-Leu-l-Phe-CF3. The D/H fractionation factors (φ) for the hydrogen in the H-bond between His 57 and Asp 102 (His 57-Hδ1) in these four complexes at 5°C were in the range φ = 0.32–0.43, expected for a low-barrier hydrogen bond. For this series of complexes, measurements also were made of the chemical shifts of His 57-Hɛ1 (δ2,2-dimethylsilapentane-5-sulfonic acid 8.97–9.18), the exchange rate of the His 57-Hδ1 proton with bulk water protons (284–12.4 s−1), and the activation enthalpies for this hydrogen exchange (14.7–19.4 kcal⋅mol−1). It was found that the previously noted correlations between the inhibition constants (Ki 170–1.2 μM) and the chemical shifts of His 57-Hδ1 (δ2,2-dimethylsilapentane-5-sulfonic acid 18.61–18.95) for this series of peptidyl trifluoromethyl ketones with chymotrypsin [Lin, J., Cassidy, C. S. & Frey, P. A. (1998) Biochemistry 37, 11940–11948] could be extended to include the fractionation factors, hydrogen exchange rates, and hydrogen exchange activation enthalpies. The results support the proposal of low barrier hydrogen bond-facilitated general base catalysis in the addition of Ser 195 to the peptidyl carbonyl group of substrates in the mechanism of chymotrypsin-catalyzed peptide hydrolysis. Trends in the enthalpies for hydrogen exchange and the fractionation factors are consistent with a strong, double-minimum or single-well potential hydrogen bond in the strongest complexes. The lifetimes of His 57-Hδ1, which is solvent shielded in these complexes, track the strength of the hydrogen bond. Because these lifetimes are orders of magnitude shorter than those of the complexes themselves, the enzyme must have a pathway for hydrogen exchange at this site that is independent of dissociation of the complexes.

A general two-process model describes the hydrogen exchange behavior of RNase A in unfolding conditions.

When NMR hydrogen exchange was used previously to monitor the kinetics of RNase A unfolding, some peptide NH protons were found to show EX2 exchange (detected by base catalysis) in addition to the expected EX1 exchange, whose rate is limited by the kinetic unfolding process. In earlier work, two groups showed independently that a restricted two-process model successfully fits published hydrogen exchange rates of native RNase A in the range 0-0.7 M guanidinium chloride. We find that this model predicts properties that are very different from the observed properties of the EX2 exchange reactions of RNase A in conditions where guanidine-induced unfolding takes place. The model predicts that EX2 exchange should be too fast to measure by the technique used, whereas it is readily measurable. Possible explanations for the contradiction are considered here, and we show that removing the restriction from the earlier two-process model is sufficient to resolve the contradiction; instead of specifying that exchange caused by global unfolding occurs by the EX2 mechanism, we allow it to occur by the general mechanism, which includes both the EX1 and EX2 cases. It is logical to remove this restriction because global unfolding of RNase A is known to give rise to EX1 exchange in these unfolding conditions. Resolving the contradiction makes it possible to determine whether populated unfolding intermediates contribute to the EX2 exchange, and this question is considered elsewhere. The results and simulations indicate that moderate or high denaturant concentrations readily give rise to EX1 exchange in native proteins. Earlier studies showed that hydrogen exchange in native proteins typically occurs by the EX2 mechanism but that high temperatures or pH values above 7 may give rise to EX1 exchange. High denaturant concentrations should be added to the list of variables likely to cause EX1 exchange.

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs. CEPS Working Document No. 372, February 2013

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements.

System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.