Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures

Slender masonry structures are distributed all over the world and constitute a relevant part of the architectural and cultural heritage of humanity. Their protection against earthquakes is a topic of great concern among the scientific community. This concern mainly arises from the strong damage or complete loss suffered by this group of structures due to catastrophic events and the need and interest to preserve them. Although the great progress in technology, and in the knowledge of seismology and earthquake engineering, the preservation of these brittle and massive structures still represents a major challenge. Based on the research developed in this work it is proposed a methodology for the seismic risk assessment of slender masonry structures. The proposed methodology was applied for the vulnerability assessment of Nepalese Pagoda temples which follow very simple construction procedure and construction detailing in relation to seismic resistance requirements. The work is divided in three main parts. Firstly, particular structural fragilities and building characteristics of the important UNESCO classified Nepalese Pagoda temples which affect their seismic performance and dynamic properties are discussed. In the second part the simplified method proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures is presented. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work is applied to study Nepalese Pagoda temples, as well as in the efficiency assessment of seismic performance improvement solution compatible with original cultural and technological value.

FRP Seismic Strengthening of Concrete Structures

This paper presents the experimental work carried out on a full scale concrete frame strengthened with Fibre Reinforced Polymer (FRP) composites. The frame was damaged, strengthened with FRP reinforcement and re-tested to assess the effectiveness of the strengthening technique. The natural frequencies of vibration, displacements, velocities and accelerations for both the unstrengthened and strengthened frame were recorded and compared.

Comportement des systèmes de référence quantiques pour le moment cinétique

Le domaine des systèmes de référence quantiques, dont les dernière avancées sont brièvement présentées au chapitre 1, est extrêmement pertinent à la compréhension de la dégradation des états quantiques et de l’évolution d’instruments de mesures quantiques. Toutefois, pour arriver à comprendre formellement ces avancées et à apporter une contribution originale au domaine, il faut s’approprier un certain nombre de concepts physiques et mathématiques, in- troduits au chapitre 2. La dégradation des états quantiques est très présente dans le contrôle d’états utiles à l’informatique quantique. Étant donné que ce dernier tente de contrôler des sys- tèmes à deux états, le plus souvent des moments cinétiques, l’analyse des systèmes de référence quantiques qui les mesurent s’avère opportune. Puisque, parmi les plus petits moments ciné- tiques, le plus connu est de s = 1 et que son état le plus simple est l’état non polarisé, l’étude 2 du comportement d’un système de référence mesurant successivement ce type de moments ci- nétiques constitue le premier pas à franchir. C’est dans le chapitre 3 qu’est fait ce premier pas et il aborde les questions les plus intéressantes, soit celles concernant l’efficacité du système de référence, sa longévité et leur maximum. La prochaine étape est de considérer des états de moments cinétiques polarisés et généraux, étape qui est abordée dans le chapitre 4. Cette fois, l’analyse de la dégradation du système de référence est un peu plus complexe et nous pouvons l’inspecter approximativement par l’évolution de certains paramètres pour une certaine classe d’états de système de référence. De plus, il existe une interaction entre le système de référence et le moment cinétique qui peut avoir un effet sur le système de référence tout à fait comparable à l’effet de la mesure. C’est cette même interaction qui est étudiée dans le chapitre 5, mais, cette fois, pour des moments cinétiques de s = 1. Après une comparaison avec la mesure, il devient manifeste que les ressemblances entre les deux processus sont beaucoup moins apparentes, voire inexistantes. Ainsi, cette ressemblance ne semble pas générale et semble accidentelle lorsqu’elle apparaît.

A Numerically efficient power optimization scheme for coded OFDM systems in achieving minimum frame error rate

Coded OFDM is a transmission technique that is used in many practical communication systems. In a coded OFDM system, source data are coded, interleaved and multiplexed for transmission over many frequency sub-channels. In a conventional coded OFDM system, the transmission power of each subcarrier is the same regardless of the channel condition. However, some subcarrier can suffer deep fading with multi-paths and the power allocated to the faded subcarrier is likely to be wasted. In this paper, we compute the FER and BER bounds of a coded OFDM system given as convex functions for a given channel coder, inter-leaver and channel response. The power optimization is shown to be a convex optimization problem that can be solved numerically with great efficiency. With the proposed power optimization scheme, near-optimum power allocation for a given coded OFDM system and channel response to minimize FER or BER under a constant transmission power constraint is obtained

Seismic behavior of capacity designed masonry walls in low seismicity regions

Eurocode 8 representing a new generation of structural design codes in Europe defines ‎requirements for the design of buildings against earthquake action. In Central and ‎Western Europe, the newly defined earthquake zones and corresponding design ground ‎acceleration values, will lead in many cases to earthquake actions which are remarkably ‎higher than those defined so far by the design codes used until now in Central Europe. ‎ In many cases, the weak points of masonry structures during an earthquake are the corner ‎regions of the walls. Loading of masonry walls by earthquake action leads in most cases ‎to high shear forces. The corresponding bending moment in such a wall typically causes a ‎significant increase of the eccentricity of the normal force in the critical wall cross ‎section. This in turn leads ultimately to a reduction of the size of the compression zone in ‎unreinforced walls and a high concentration of normal stresses and shear stresses in the ‎corner regions. ‎ Corner-Gap-Elements, consisting of a bearing beam located underneath the wall and ‎made of a sufficiently strong material (such as reinforced concrete), reduce the effect of ‎the eccentricity of the normal force and thus restricts the pinching effect of the ‎compression zone. In fact, the deformation can be concentrated in the joint below the ‎bearing beam. According to the principles of the Capacity Design philosophy, the ‎masonry itself is protected from high stresses as a potential cause of brittle failure. ‎ Shaking table tests at the NTU Athens Earthquake Engineering Laboratory have proven ‎the effectiveness of the Corner-Gap-Element. The following presentation will cover the ‎evaluation of various experimental results as well as a numerical modeling of the ‎observed phenomena.‎

Constructing a ‘moment of crisis’ and its adequate solution

The rejection of the European Constitution marks an important crystallization point for debate about the European Union (EU) and the integration process. The European Constitution was envisaged as the founding document of a renewed and enlarged European Union and thus it was rather assumed to find wide public support. Its rejection was not anticipated. The negative referenda in France and the Netherlands therefore led to a controversial debate about the more fundamental meaning and the consequences of the rejection both for the immediate state of affairs as well as for the further integration process. The rejection of the Constitution and the controversy about its correct interpretation therefore present an intriguing puzzle for political analysis. Although the treaty rejection was taken up widely in the field of European Studies, the focus of existing analyses has predominantly been on explaining why the current situation occurred. Underlying these approaches is the premise that by establishing the reasons for the rejection it is possible to derive the ‘true’ meaning of the event for the EU integration process. In my paper I rely on an alternative, discourse theoretical approach which aims to overcome the positivist perspective dominating the existing analyses. I argue that the meaning of the event ‘treaty rejection’ is not fixed or inherent to it but discursively constructed. The critical assessment of this concrete meaning-production is of high relevance as the specific meaning attributed to the treaty rejection effectively constrains the scope for supposedly ‘reasonable’ options for action, both in the concrete situation and in the further European integration process more generally. I will argue that the overall framing suggests a fundamental technocratic approach to governance from part of the Commission. Political struggle and public deliberation is no longer foreseen as the concrete solutions to the citizens’ general concerns are designed by supposedly apolitical experts. Through the communicative diffusion and the active implementation of this particular model of governance the Commission shapes the future integration process in a more substantial way than is obvious from its seemingly limited immediate problem-solving orientation of overcoming the ‘constitutional crisis’. As the European Commission is a central actor in the discourse production my analysis focuses on the specific interpretation of the situation put forward by the Commission. In order to work out the Commission’s particular take on the event I conducted a frame analysis (according to Benford/Snow) on a body of key sources produced in the context of coping with the treaty rejection.

Padé approximants for the acoustical properties of rigid frame porous media with pore size distributions

Expressions for the viscosity correction function, and hence bulk complex impedance, density, compressibility, and propagation constant, are obtained for a rigid frame porous medium whose pores are prismatic with fixed cross-sectional shape, but of variable pore size distribution. The lowand high-frequency behavior of the viscosity correction function is derived for the particular case of a log-normal pore size distribution, in terms of coefficients which can, in general, be computed numerically, and are given here explicitly for the particular cases of pores of equilateral triangular, circular, and slitlike cross-section. Simple approximate formulae, based on two-point Pade´ approximants for the viscosity correction function are obtained, which avoid a requirement for numerical integration or evaluation of special functions, and their accuracy is illustrated and investigated for the three pore shapes already mentioned

Padé approximants for the acoustical characteristics of rigid frame porous media

In this paper it is shown that a number of theoretical models of the acoustical properties of rigid frame porous media, especially those involving ratios of Bessel functions of complex argument, can be accurately approximated and greatly simplified by the use of Padé approximation techniques. In the case of the model of Attenborough [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 81, 93–102 (1987)] rational approximations are produced for the characteristic impedance, propagation constant, dynamic compressibility, and dynamic density, as a function of frequency and the material parameters. The model proposed by Stinson and Champoux

Moho map of South America from receiver functions and surface waves

We estimate crustal structure and thickness of South America north of roughly 40 degrees S. To this end, we analyzed receiver functions from 20 relatively new temporary broadband seismic stations deployed across eastern Brazil. In the analysis we include teleseismic and some regional events, particularly for stations that recorded few suitable earthquakes. We first estimate crustal thickness and average Poisson`s ratio using two different stacking methods. We then combine the new crustal constraints with results from previous receiver function studies. To interpolate the crustal thickness between the station locations, we jointly invert these Moho point constraints, Rayleigh wave group velocities, and regional S and Rayleigh waveforms for a continuous map of Moho depth. The new tomographic Moho map suggests that Moho depth and Moho relief vary slightly with age within the Precambrian crust. Whether or not a positive correlation between crustal thickness and geologic age is derived from the pre-interpolation point constraints depends strongly on the selected subset of receiver functions. This implies that using only pre-interpolation point constraints (receiver functions) inadequately samples the spatial variation in geologic age. The new Moho map also reveals an anomalously deep Moho beneath the oldest core of the Amazonian Craton.

The intraplate Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone in the Amazon craton - Brazil

The largest earthquake observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador, Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31,1955 with a magnitude of 6.2 m(b). Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicentre. However, in Porto dos Gauchos, 100 km northeast of Serra do Tombador, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both Serra do Tombador and Porto dos Gauchos are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in Porto dos Gauchos, in 1998 and 2005, with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences lasting more than three years each. Local seismic stations have been deployed by the Seismological Observatory of the University of Brasilia since 1998 to study the ""Porto dos Gauchos"" seismic zone (PGSZ). A local seismic refraction survey was carried out with two explosions to help define the seismic velocity model. Both the 1998 and 2005 earthquake sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is in the Parecis basin, near its northern border where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. However, the epicentral distribution indicates that the 1998 and 2005 sequences are related to a N60 degrees E fault which probably crosses the entire Caiabis graben. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicentre, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust. The probable direction of the maximum horizontal stress near Porto dos Gauchos is roughly E-W, consistent with other focal mechanisms further south in the Pantanal basin and Paraguay. but seems to be different from the NW-SE direction observed further north in the Amazon basin. The recurrent seismicity observed in Porto dos Gauchos, and the large 1955 earthquake nearby, make this area of the Parecis basin one of the most important seismic zones of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin from receiver functions and Rayleigh-wave dispersion: Evidence for a fragmented cratonic root

The deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin of southern Brazil is investigated by analyzing P- and PP-wave receiver functions at 17 Brazilian Lithosphere Seismic Project stations within the basin. The study area can be described as a typical Paleozoic intracratonic basin that hosts one of the largest Large Igneous Province of the world and makes a unique setting for investigating models of basin subsidence and their interaction with mantle plumes. Our study consists of (1) an analysis of the Moho interaction phases in the receiver functions to obtain the thickness and bulk Vp/Vs ratio of the basin`s underlying crust and (2) a joint inversion with Rayleigh-wave dispersion velocities from an independent tomographic study to delineate the detailed S-wave velocity variation with depth. The results of our analysis reveal that Moho depths and bulk Vp/Vs ratios (including sediments) vary between 41 and 48 km and between 1.70 and 1.76, respectively, with the largest values roughly coinciding with the basin`s axis, and that S-wave velocities in the lower crust are generally below 3.8 km/s. Select sites within the basin, however, show lower crustal S-wave velocities slightly above 3.9 km/s suggestive of underplated mafic material. We show that these observations are consistent with a fragmented cratonic root under the Parana basin that defined a zone of weakness for the initial Paleozoic subsidence of the basin and which allowed localized mafic underplating of the crust along the suture zones by Cenozoic magmatism.

PokerMapper: : mapping executive functions, poker playing ability and responsible gambling in online environments

Research objectives Poker and responsible gambling both entail the use of the executive functions (EF), which are higher-level cognitive abilities. The main objective of this work was to assess if online poker players of different ability show different performances in their EF and if so, which functions are the most discriminating ones. The secondary objective was to assess if the EF performance can predict the quality of gambling, according to the Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS), the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Sample and methods The study design consisted of two stages: 46 Italian active players (41m, 5f; age 32±7,1ys; education 14,8±3ys) fulfilled the PGSI in a secure IT web system and uploaded their own hand history files, which were anonymized and then evaluated by two poker experts. 36 of these players (31m, 5f; age 33±7,3ys; education 15±3ys) accepted to take part in the second stage: the administration of an extensive neuropsychological test battery by a blinded trained professional. To answer the main research question we collected all final and intermediate scores of the EF tests on each player together with the scoring on the playing ability. To answer the secondary research question, we referred to GRCS, PGSI and SOGS scores.  We determined which variables that are good predictors of the playing ability score using statistical techniques able to deal with many regressors and few observations (LASSO, best subset algorithms and CART). In this context information criteria and cross-validation errors play a key role for the selection of the relevant regressors, while significance testing and goodness-of-fit measures can lead to wrong conclusions.   Preliminary findings We found significant predictors of the poker ability score in various tests. In particular, there are good predictors 1) in some Wisconsin Card Sorting Test items that measure flexibility in choosing strategy of problem-solving, strategic planning, modulating impulsive responding, goal setting and self-monitoring, 2) in those Cognitive Estimates Test variables related to deductive reasoning, problem solving, development of an appropriate strategy and self-monitoring, 3) in the Emotional Quotient Inventory Short (EQ-i:S) Stress Management score, composed by the Stress Tolerance and Impulse Control scores, and in the Interpersonal score (Empathy, Social Responsibility, Interpersonal Relationship). As for the quality of gambling, some EQ-i:S scales scores provide the best predictors: General Mood for the PGSI; Intrapersonal (Self-Regard; Emotional Self-Awareness, Assertiveness, Independence, Self-Actualization) and Adaptability  (Reality Testing, Flexibility, Problem Solving) for the SOGS, Adaptability for the GRCS. Implications for the field Through PokerMapper we gathered knowledge and evaluated the feasibility of the construction of short tasks/card games in online poker environments for profiling users’ executive functions. These card games will be part of an IT system able to dynamically profile EF and provide players with a feedback on their expected performance and ability to gamble responsibly in that particular moment. The implementation of such system in existing gambling platforms could lead to an effective proactive tool for supporting responsible gambling. 

Lifecycle environmental impact and cost analyses of steel bridge piers with seismic risk

Lifecycle approaches have found their wide applications in analyzing, evaluating and assessing technologies and management methods in the infrastructure systems. While environmental problems such as global warming have become a serious issue in the world, researchers and practicing engineers in civil engineering have to pay attention to environmental impacts as well as function, safety, cost and aesthetics in the
whole lifecycle of civil infrastructures. In addition to the normal lifecycle activities accompanied with operation and aging, the effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes with a low occurrence probability but a high
hazard loss require a full consideration in determining both lifecycle cost and lifecycle environmental impact. In this research, an approach is proposed to predetermine the lifecycle environmental impact and costs of bridges from their construction and maintenance as well as the losses and recovery after natural hazards. Based on this research, it becomes possible to quantitatively outline the roles of bridge construction, maintenance and earthquake in both environmental impact and cost in the whole lifetime of a bridge, especially their constituent parts from seismic losses and recoveries.

Performance evaluation of open source seismic data processing packages

In many businesses, including hydrocarbon industries, reducing cost is of high priority. Although hydrocarbon industries appear able to afford the expensive computing infrastructure and software packages used to process seismic data in the search for hydrocarbon traps, it is always imperative to find ways to minimize cost. Seismic processing costs can be significantly reduced by using inexpensive, open source seismic data processing packages. However, hydrocarbon industries question the processing performance capability of open source packages, claiming that their seismic functions are less integrated and provide almost no technical guarantees for one to use. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate, through a comparative analysis, that open source seismic data processing packages are capable of executing the required seismic functions on an actual industrial workload. To achieve this objective we investigate whether or not open source seismic data processing packages can be executed using the same set of seismic data through data format conversions, and whether or not they can achieve reasonable performance and speedup when executing parallel seismic functions on a HPC cluster. Among the few open source packages available on the Internet, the subjects of our study are two popular packages: Seismic UNIX (SU) and Madagascar.