Influence diagnostics in Gaussian spatial linear models

Spatial linear models have been applied in numerous fields such as agriculture, geoscience and environmental sciences, among many others. Spatial dependence structure modelling, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to estimate the parameters that define this structure. However, this estimation may be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in the sampled data. The purpose of this paper is to use diagnostic techniques to assess the sensitivity of the maximum-likelihood estimators, covariance functions and linear predictor to small perturbations in the data and/or the spatial linear model assumptions. The methodology is illustrated with two real data sets. The results allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values in the sample data have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing the spatial dependence structure.

Nitric oxide mediates the blood pressure response to mental stress in humans

Nitric oxide (NO) regulates arterial pressure by modulating peripheral vascular tone and sympathetic vasoconstrictor outflow. NO synthesis is impaired in several major cardiovascular disease states. Loss of NO-induced vasodilator tone and restraint on sympathetic outflow could result in exaggerated pressor responses to mental stress.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

El tópico del justo medio en los Epigramas de Marco V. Marcial

Roma durante la época de los Flavios. Un primer acercamiento a la obra impresiona al lector por la desmesura de los vicios de la sociedad descripta y por la obscenidad del lenguaje utilizado por el escritor. Sin embargo, en una lectura más profunda, se van descubriendo composiciones de una enorme belleza, además se reconoce una voz que va exponiendo una filosofía de vida en la que se enaltecen la sencillez, la mesura y se condenan los excesos. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar algunos epigramas donde aparece explícitamente la mediocritas como un ‘ideal de vida’, y comentar otros en los que el epigramista critica negativamente la intemperantia.

Estudio teórico-experimental para la mejora de la resistencia estructural de autocares basado en el diseño de uniones y asientos

La presente tesis analiza la mejora de la resistencia estructural ante vuelco de autocares enfocando dos vías de actuación: análisis y propuestas de requisitos reglamentarios a nivel europeo y la generación de herramientas que ayuden al diseño y a la verificación de estos requisitos. Los requisitos reglamentarios de resistencia estructural a vuelco contemplan la superestructura de los vehículos pero no para los asientos y sistemas de retención. La influencia de los pasajeros retenidos es superior a la incluida en reglamentación (Reg. 66.01) debiendo considerarse unida al vehículo un porcentaje de la masa de los pasajeros del 91% para cinturón de tres puntos y del 52% para cinturón subabdominal frente al 50% reglamentario para todos los casos. Se ha determinado la cinemática y dinámica del vuelco normativo en sus diferentes fases, formulando las energías en las fases iniciales (hasta el impacto contra el suelo) y determinando la fase final de deformación a través del análisis secuencial de ensayos de módulos reales. Se han determinado los esfuerzos para los asientos que se dividen en dos fases diferenciadas temporalmente: una primera debida a la deformación estructural y una segunda debida al esfuerzo del pasajero retenido que se produce en sentido opuesto (con una deceleración del pasajero en torno a 3.3 g). Se ha caracterizado a través de ensayos cuasi.estáticos el comportamiento de perfiles a flexión y de las uniones estructurales de las principales zonas del vehículo (piso, ventana y techo) verificándose la validez del comportamiento plástico teórico Kecman.García para perfiles de hasta 4 mm de espesor y caracterizando la resistencia y rigidez en la zona elástica de las uniones en función del tipo de refuerzo, materiales y perfiles (análisis de más de 180 probetas). Se ha definido un método de ensayo cuasi.estático para asientos ante esfuerzos de vuelco, ensayándose 19 butacas y determinándose que son resistentes (salvo las uniones a vehículo con pinzas), que son capaces de absorber hasta más de un 17% de la energía absorbida, aunque algunos necesitan optimización para llegar a contribuir en el mecanismo de deformación estructural. Se han generado modelos simplificados para introducir en los modelos barra.rótula plástica: un modelo combinado unión+rótula plástica (que incluye la zona de rigidez determinada en función del tipo de unión) para la superestructura y un modelo simplificado de muelles no.lineales para los asientos. Igualmente se ha generado la metodología de diseño a través de ensayos virtuales con modelos de detalle de elementos finitos tanto de las uniones como de los asientos. Se ha propuesto una metodología de diseño basada en obtener el “mecanismo óptimo de deformación estructural” (elevando la zona de deformación lateral a nivel de ventana y en pilar o en costilla en techo). Para ello se abren dos vías: diseño de la superestructura (selección de perfiles y generación de uniones resistentes) o combinación con asientos (que en lugar de solo resistir las cargas pueden llegar a modificar el mecanismo de deformación). Se ha propuesto una metodología de verificación alternativa al vuelco de vehículo completo que contempla el cálculo cuasi.estático con modelos simplificados barra.rótula plástica más el ensayo de una sección representativa con asientos y utillajes antropomórficos retenidos que permite validar el diseño de las uniones, determinar el porcentaje de energía que debe absorberse por deformación estructural (factor C) y verificar el propio asiento como sistema de retención. ABSTRACT This research analyzes the improvement of the structural strength of buses and coaches under rollover from two perspectives: regulatory requirements at European level and generation of tools that will help to the design and to the verification of requirements. European Regulations about rollover structural strength includes requirements for the superstructure of the vehicles but not about seats, anchorages and restraint systems. The influence of the retained passengers is higher than the one included currently in the Regulations (Reg. 66.01), being needed to consider a 91% of the passenger mass as rigidly joint to the vehicle (for 3 points’ belt, a 52% for 2 points’ belt) instead of the 50% included in the Regulation. Kinematic and dynamic of the normative rollover has been determined from testing of different sections, formulating the energies of the first phases (up to the first impact with the ground) and determining the last deformation phase through sequential analysis of movements and deformations. The efforts due to rollover over the seats have been established, being divided in two different temporal phases: a first one due to the structural deformation of the vehicle and a second one due to the effort of the restrained passenger being this second one in opposite sense (with a passenger deceleration around 3.3 g). From quasi.static testing, the behavior of the structural tubes under flexural loads, including the principal joints in the vehicle (floor, window and roof), the validity of the theoretical plastic behavior according Kecman.García theories have been verified up to 4 mm of thickness. Strength of the joints as well as the stiffness of the elastic zone has been determined in function of main parameters: type of reinforcement, materials and section of the tubes (more than 180 test specimens). It has been defined a quasi.static testing methodology to characterize the seats and restrain system behavior under rollover, testing 19 double seats and concluding that they are resistant (excepting clamping joints), that they can absorb more than a 17 of the absorbed energy, and that some of them need optimization to contribute in the structural deformation mechanism. It has been generated simplified MEF models, to analyze in a beam.plastic hinge model: a combined model joint+plastic hinge (including the stiffness depending on the type of joint) for the superstructure and a simplified model with non.lineal springs to represent the seats. It has been detailed methodologies for detailed design of joints and seats from virtual testing (MEF models). A design methodology based in the “optimized structural deformation mechanism” (increasing the height of deformation of the lateral up to window level) is proposed. Two possibilities are analyzed: design of the superstructure based on the selection of profiles and design of strength joints (were seats only resist the efforts and contribute in the energy absorption) or combination structure.seats, were seats contributes in the deformation mechanism. An alternative methodology to the rollover of a vehicle that includes the quasi.static calculation with simplified models “beam.joint+plastic hinge” plus the testing of a representative section of the vehicle including seats and anthropomorphic ballast restrained by the safety belts is presented. The test of the section allows validate the design of the joints, determine the percentage of energy to be absorbed by structural deformation (factor C) and verify the seat as a retention system.

Efeitos do transporte e do tempo de espera no bem-estar e na qualidade de carne de cordeiros

Com este estudo objetivou-se avaliar os níveis de estresse e a qualidade de carne de cordeiros mestiços Santa Inês x Dorper, submetidos a transporte de percurso curto (duas horas) e longo (seis horas) e em dois períodos de espera pré-abate (12 ou 24 horas). Foram utilizados 32 cordeiros com 127 ± 7 dias de idade e 30,4 ± 2,1 kg de peso vivo. Antes de serem submetidos aos períodos de transporte, os animais estavam alocados em baias coletivas e receberam ração concentrada (farelo de soja e milho, calcário calcítico e núcleo com monensina), bagaço úmido de citros e capim Napier (Pennisetum purpureum) e água ad libitum. Foram realizadas avaliações de reatividade dos animais no momento do embarque, desembarque e durante a contenção dos animais para as colheitas de sangue, urina e temperatura ocular por termografia infravermelho. Durante o período de espera pré-abate, realizou-se a colheita de dados comportamentais dos animais. Foram avaliadas as concentrações de cortisol no soro, na urina e as concentrações de haptoglobina no soro nos períodos que antecederam a insensibilização, assim como no momento do abate. Os animais apresentaram baixa reatividade durante todos os manejos. Houve diferença significativa no comportamento dos cordeiros durante os períodos de espera (P < 0,05) que durante as 12 horas apresentaram frequência de comportamentos que indicaram bem-estar favorável, enquanto que o período de transporte não afetou (P > 0,05). Os níveis de cortisol no soro mantiveram-se semelhantes da saída dos animais para o transporte até o final do período de espera (P > 0,05), enquanto houve oscilação dessas concentrações no cortisol na urina (P < 0,05), com pico no desembarque dos animais de duas horas de transporte e diminuição ao final do período de descanso. Os níveis de haptoglobina mantiveram-se semelhantes da colheita realizada antes do transporte, no embarque e no desembarque (P > 0,05) e diminuíram no final do período de espera pré-abate (P < 0,05). A temperatura ocular elevou-se no embarque e no desembarque dos animais, com diminuição da temperatura ao final do período de espera (P < 0,05). No momento do abate, foi observado aumento das concentrações de haptoglobina (P < 0,05), enquanto não houve alteração nas concentrações de cortisol no soro (P > 0,05). Animais que permaneceram por 24 horas de espera pré-abate apresentaram maior força de cisalhamento e menor luminosidade (L*) e intensidade de amarelo (b*). As variáveis comportamentais foram pouco afetadas pelos períodos de transporte e de espera pré-abate, porém o período de 12 horas de espera favoreceu a qualidade da carne

Capacidad predictiva de la autoeficacia académica sobre las dimensiones del autoconcepto en una muestra de adolescentes chilenos

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la capacidad predictiva de la autoeficacia académica sobre las dimensiones del autoconcepto en una muestra de 860 estudiantes chilenos. El análisis de regresión logística reveló que la autoeficacia académica fue un predictor positivo y significativo de las escalas académicas (Matemáticas, Verbal y Académica General), no académicas (Habilidades Físicas, Apariencia Física, Relaciones con el Sexo Opuesto, Relaciones con el Mismo Sexo, Relación con los Padres, Sinceridad- Veracidad), y de la escala de Autoestima, excepto de la escala de Estabilidad Emocional. Esta relación de predicción fue de mayor magnitud con las escalas académicas y autoestima.

Conhecimento e atitudes dos pais perante a criança com febre em contexto de serviço de urgência

Enquadramento – A febre na criança constitui uma das principais manifestações que impul-siona os pais na procura dos cuidados de saúde diferenciados, resultando na utilização ina-propriada de recursos. Objetivos – Identificar as variáveis sociodemográficas que interferem no conhecimento e nas atitudes dos pais perante a criança com febre; avaliar a influência do número de filhos no conhecimento e nas atitudes; identificar as fontes de informação que influenciam o conheci-mento e as atitudes dos pais. Material e Método – Estudo quantitativo, transversal, descritivo e correlacional. Recorreu-se ao questionário que inclui a caracterização sociodemográfica, contextual da criança, variá-veis clínicas de fontes de informação e questões que avaliam o conhecimento e as atitudes dos pais perante a febre na criança. A amostragem é não probabilística por conveniência (144 pais/cuidadores). Resultados – Amostra predominantemente feminina (86.8%), os homens são mais velhos (M=34.05 anos .6.45 anos); cerca de 9 em cada 10 das crianças eram acompanhadas pela mãe. Os sintomas que mais preocupam e levaram os participantes a recorrer ao Serviço de Urgência foram: vómitos/desidratação (66.4%), mau estado geral (64.6%), dificuldade respirató-ria (52.1%); em 58.5% dos casos de febre sem foco poder-se-ia ter utilizado os cuidados de saúde primários; a idade da criança e o sexo dummy revelaram-se preditoras dos conhecimen-tos e o sexo preditor das atitudes; as mulheres e os homens com mais idade e com filhos mais jovens possuem melhores conhecimentos; as mulheres têm atitudes mais adequadas. Conclusões – As mulheres possuem conhecimentos intermédios e revelam melhor atitude perante a febre. Quanto maior a escolaridade melhor é o conhecimento e os participantes que procuram como fonte de informação um profissional de saúde, possuem atitudes mais ade-quadas. Assume grande relevância a aquisição de competências que proporcionem aos pais/cuidadores ferramentas que os ajudem a lidar com a fobia da febre. Palavras-chave: Febre; Criança; Pais; Conhecimento; Atitudes; Serviço de Urgência.

Why Do Some International Institutions Contain Strong Dispute Settlement Provisions: New Evidence from Preferential Trade Agreements

To understand why some international institutions have stronger dispute settlement mechanisms (DSMs) than others, we investigate the dispute settlement provisions of nearly 600 preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which possess several desirable case-selection features and are evoked more than is realized. We broaden the study of dispute settlement design beyond “legalization” and instead reorient theorizing around a multi-faceted conceptualization of the strength of DSMs. We posit that strong DSMs are first and foremost a rational response to features of agreements that require stronger dispute settlement, such as depth and large memberships. Multivariate empirical tests using a new data set on PTA design confirm these expectations and reveal that depth – the amount of policy change specified in an agreement – is the most powerful and consistent predictor of DSM strength, providing empirical support to a long-posited but controversial conjecture. Yet power also plays a sizeable role, since agreements among asymmetric members are more likely to have strong DSMs due to their mutual appeal, as are those involving the United States. Important regional differences also emerge, as PTAs across the Americas are designed with strong dispute settlement, as are Asian PTAs, which contradicts the conventional wisdom about Asian values and legalization. Our findings demonstrate that rationalism explains much of international institutional design, yet it can be enhanced by also incorporating power-based and regional explanations.

An Analytical Solution for the Elastic Lateral-Distortional Buckling of I-section Beams

Lateral-distortional buckling may occur in I-section beams with slender webs and stocky flanges. A computationally efficient method is presented in this paper to study this phenomenon. Previous studies on distortional buckling have been on the use of 3(rd) and 5(th) order polynomials to model the displacements. The present study provides an alternative way, using Fourier Series, to model the behaviour. Beams of different cross-sectional dimensions, load cases and restraint conditions are examined and compared. The accuracy and versatility of the method are verified by calibrating against the results of other published studies. The present method is believed to be a simple and efficient way of determining the buckling load and mode shapes of I-section beams that are susceptible to lateral-distortional buckling modes.

Kinetic energy conserving integrators for Gaussian thermostatted SLLOD

A new integration scheme is developed for nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations where the temperature is constrained by a Gaussian thermostat. The utility of the scheme is demonstrated by its application to the SLLOD algorithm which is the standard nonequilibrium molecular dynamics algorithm for studying shear flow. Unlike conventional integrators, the new integrators are constructed using operator-splitting techniques to ensure stability and that little or no drift in the kinetic energy occurs. Moreover, they require minimum computer memory and are straightforward to program. Numerical experiments show that the efficiency and stability of the new integrators compare favorably with conventional integrators such as the Runge-Kutta and Gear predictor-corrector methods. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(99)50125-6].

Towards developing reliable models of leaf area on grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.)

A field study in three vineyards in southern Queensland (Australia) was carried out to develop predictive models for individual leaf area and shoot leaf area of two cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz) of grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.). Digital image analysis was used to measure leaf vein length and leaf area. Stepwise regressions of untransformed and transformed models consisting of up to six predictor variables for leaf area and three predictor variables for shoot leaf area were carried out to obtain the most efficient models. High correlation coefficients were found for log10 transformed individual leaf and shoot leaf area models. The significance of predictor variables in the models varied across vineyards and cultivars, demonstrating the discontinuous and heterogeneous nature of vineyards. The application of this work in a grapevine modeling environment and in a dynamic vineyard management context are discussed. Sample sizes for quantification of individual leaf areas and areas of leaves on shoots are proposed based on target margins of errors of sampled data.

Individual differences in the sensory perception of fats

Excessive consumption of dietary fat is acknowledged to be a widespread problem linked to a range of medical conditions. Despite this, little is known about the specific sensory appeal held by fats and no previous published research exists concerning human perception of non-textural taste qualities in fats. This research aimed to address whether a taste component can be found in sensory perception of pure fats. It also examined whether individual differences existed in human taste responses to fat, using both aggregated data analysis methods and multidimensional scaling. Results indicated that individuals were able to detect both the primary taste qualities of sweet, salty, sour and bitter in pure processed oils and reliably ascribe their own individually-generated taste labels, suggested that a taste component may be present in human responses to fat. Individual variation appeared to exist, both in the perception of given taste qualities and in perceived intensity and preferences. A number of factors were examined in relation to such individual differences in taste perception, including age, gender, genetic sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, body mass, dietary preferences and intake, dieting behaviours and restraint. Results revealed that, to varying extents, gender, age, sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, dietary preferences, habitual dietary intake and restraint all appeared to be related to individual variation in taste responses to fat. However, in general, these differences appeared to exist in the form of differing preferences and levels of intensity with which taste qualities detected in fat were perceived, as opposed to the perception of specific taste qualities being associated with given traits or states. Equally, each of these factors appeared to exert only a limited influence upon variation in sensory responses and thus the potential for using taste responses to fats as a marker for issues such as over-consumption, obesity or eating disorder is at present limited.

On the modulation of the effects of some 5 - HT - related agents in axiety models

The results of an investigation into how stressors interact with the action of serotonergic agents in animal models of anxiety are presented. Water deprivation and restraint both increased plasma corticosterone concentrations and elevated 5-HT turnover. In the elevated X-maze, water deprivation had a duration-dependent "anxiolytic" effect. The effect of restraint was dependent on the duration of restraint and was to inhibit maze exploration. Water-deprivation did not influence the action of diazepam or any 5-HT1A ligand in the X-maze. Restraint switched the "anxiogenic" effect of 8-0H-DPAT to either "anxiolytic" or inactive, depending on the time after the restraint when testing was performed. The Vogel conflict test detected an "anxiolytic" "anxiolytic"V"anxiolytic""anxiolytic" effect of buspirone which was additive with "anxiolytic" effects of pindolol and propranolol. Diazepam and fluoxetine were also active, but 8-0H-DPAT, ipsapirone, gepirone and yohimbine were inactive. In the elevated X-maze, "anxiogenic" responses to picrotoxin, flumazenil, RU 24969, CGS 12066B, fluoxetine and 8-0H-DPAT were detected. Other 5-HT1A ligands were inactive. Diazepam and corticosterone had "anxiolytic" effects. Increasing light intensity did not change behaviour on the elevated X-maze, but was able to reverse the effect of 8- OH-DPAT to an "anxiolytic" action. This effect was attributed to a presynaptic mechanism, because it was abolished by pCPA. The occurence of different behaviours in different reglons of the maze was shown to be susceptible to modulation by "anxiolytic" and "anxiogenic" drugs. These results are discussed in the context of there being at least two separate 5-HT mechanisms which are involved in the control of anxiety.

TATPred:a Bayesian method for the identification of twin arginine translocation pathway signal sequences

The twin arginine translocation (TAT) system ferries folded proteins across the bacterial membrane. Proteins are directed into this system by the TAT signal peptide present at the amino terminus of the precursor protein, which contains the twin arginine residues that give the system its name. There are currently only two computational methods for the prediction of TAT translocated proteins from sequence. Both methods have limitations that make the creation of a new algorithm for TAT-translocated protein prediction desirable. We have developed TATPred, a new sequence-model method, based on a Nave-Bayesian network, for the prediction of TAT signal peptides. In this approach, a comprehensive range of models was tested to identify the most reliable and robust predictor. The best model comprised 12 residues: three residues prior to the twin arginines and the seven residues that follow them. We found a prediction sensitivity of 0.979 and a specificity of 0.942.