Effects of climate and morphology on temperature conditions of lakes

To a large extent, lakes can be described with a one-dimensional approach, as their main features can be characterized by the vertical temperature profile of the water. The development of the profiles during the year follows the seasonal climate variations. Depending on conditions, lakes become stratified during the warm summer. After cooling, overturn occurs, water cools and an ice cover forms. Typically, water is inversely stratified under the ice, and another overturn occurs in spring after the ice has melted. Features of this circulation have been used in studies to distinguish between lakes in different areas, as basis for observation systems and even as climate indicators. Numerical models can be used to calculate temperature in the lake, on the basis of the meteorological input at the surface. The simple form is to solve the surface temperature. The depth of the lake affects heat transfer, together with other morphological features, the shape and size of the lake. Also the surrounding landscape affects the formation of the meteorological fields over the lake and the energy input. For small lakes the shading by the shores affects both over the lake and inside the water body bringing limitations for the one-dimensional approach. A two-layer model gives an approximation for the basic stratification in the lake. A turbulence model can simulate vertical temperature profile in a more detailed way. If the shape of the temperature profile is very abrupt, vertical transfer is hindered, having many important consequences for lake biology. One-dimensional modelling approach was successfully studied comparing a one-layer model, a two-layer model and a turbulence model. The turbulence model was applied to lakes with different sizes, shapes and locations. Lake models need data from the lakes for model adjustment. The use of the meteorological input data on different scales was analysed, ranging from momentary turbulent changes over the lake to the use of the synoptical data with three hour intervals. Data over about 100 past years were used on the mesoscale at the range of about 100 km and climate change scenarios for future changes. Increasing air temperature typically increases water temperature in epilimnion and decreases ice cover. Lake ice data were used for modelling different kinds of lakes. They were also analyzed statistically in global context. The results were also compared with results of a hydrological watershed model and data from very small lakes for seasonal development.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Effects of commercial fishing regulations on stranding rates of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus).

Fisheries management actions taken to protect one species can have unintended, and sometimes positive, consequences on other species. For example, regulatory measures to reduce fishing effort in the winter gillnet fishery for spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) off North Carolina (NC) also led to decreases in the number of bycaught bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). This study found that a marked decrease in fishing effort for spiny dogfish in NC also corresponded with a marked decrease in winter stranding rates of bottlenose dolphins with entanglement lesions (P= 0.002). Furthermore, from 1997 through 2002, there was a significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.79; P= 0.0003) between seasonal bycatch estimates of bottlenose dolphins in gill nets and rates of stranded dolphins with entanglement lesions. With this information, stranding thresholds were developed that would enable the detection of those increases in bycatch in near real-time. This approach is valuable because updated bycatch estimates from observer data usually have a time-lag of two or more years. Threshold values could be used to detect increases in stranding rates, triggering managers immediately to direct observer effort to areas of potentially high bycatch or to institute mitigation measures. Thus, observer coverage and stranding investigations can be used in concert for more effective fishery management.

Nutrient dynamics of seasonal tanks in the dry zone of Sri Lanka in relation to their hydrological regimes

Village tanks are put to a wide range of uses by the rural communities that depend on them for their survival. As the primacy of irrigation has decreased under these tanks due to a variety of climatic and economic reasons there is a need to reevaluate their use for other productive functions. The research presented in this paper is part of a programme investigating the potential to improve the management of living aquatic resources in order to bring benefits to the most marginal groups identified in upper watershed areas. Based on an improved typology of seasonal tanks, the seasonal changes and dynamics of various water quality parameters indicative of nutrient status and fisheries carrying capacity are compared over a period of one year. Indicators of Net (Primary) Productivity (NP): Rates of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) change, Total Suspended Solids (TSS): Total Suspended Volatile solids (TVSS) ratios are the parameters of principle interest. Based on these results a comparative analysis is made on two classes of ‘seasonal’ and ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Results indicate a broad correlation in each of these parameters with seasonal trends in tank hydrology. Highest productivity levels are associated with periods of declining water storage, whilst the lowest levels are associated with the periods of maximum water storage shortly after the NW monsoon. This variation is primarily attributed to dilution effects associated with depth and storage area. During the yala period, encroachment of the surface layer by several species of aquatic macrophyte also has progressively negative impacts on productivity. The most seasonal tanks show wider extremes in seasonal nutrient dynamics, overall, with less favourable conditions than the ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Never the less all the tanks can be considered as being highly productive with NP levels comparable to fertilised pond systems for much of the year. This indicates that nutrient status is not likely to be amongst the most important constraints to enhancing fish production. Other potential management improvements based on these results are discussed. [PDF contains 19 pages]

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather conditions were very different to what they are today. Most are based on samples collected at weekly or fortnightly intervals and cannot quantify the effects of short-term, more extreme, variations in the weather. In this article, the author presents some examples to show the importance of developing new monitoring methods using case studies from a number of lakes in the English Lake District. The impact of year-to-year changes and short-term changes on the dynamics of of lakes are highlighted.

Ecological effects of trial pumpings in the Upper Lambourn: Stage 1 group pumping test Upper Lambourn group, September - November 1975

This report to the Thames Water Authority and Central Water Planning Unit is on research carried out in conjunction with the Stage 1 Group Pumping Test of five boreholes in the upper Lambourn Group for a period of three months in September, October and November 1975. The aim of the study was to assess the ecological effects of the pumpin g of five bore-holes in the upper Lambourn. That is, to determine how the seasonal sequence of ecological events in the river differed from what would hav e occurred had no pumping taken place. Since this 'experiment' has no control it is not possible to make a direct assessment. Nevertheless, by careful monitoring of ecological events before, during and after the pumping it is possible to document changes in th e river and by reference to the data already available for the Rive r Lambourn, normal seasonal changes in the flora and fauna can be separated from changes which may be attributable to the pumping and subsequent events.

Vegetation Effects on Fish Distribution in Impounded Salt Marshes

We compared the density and biomass of resident fish in vegetated and unvegetated flooded habitats of impounded salt marshes in the northern Indian River Lagoon (IRL) Estuary of east-central Florida. A 1-m2 throw trap was used to sample fish in randomly located, paired sample plots (n = 198 pairs) over 5 seasons in 7 impoundments. We collected a total of 15 fish taxa, and 88% of the fishes we identified from the samples belonged to three species: Cyprinodon variegatus (Sheepshead Minnow), Gambusia holbrooki (Eastern Mosquitofish), and Poecilia latipinna (Sailfin Molly). Vegetated habitat usually had higher density and biomass of fish. Mean fish density (and 95% confidence interval) for vegetated and unvegetated sites were 8.2 (6.7–9.9) and 2.0 (1.6–2.4) individuals m-2, respectively; mean biomass (and 95% confidence interval) for vegetated and unvegetated sites were 3.0 (2.5–3.7) and 1.1 (0.9–1.4) g m-2, respectively. We confirmed previous findings that impounded salt marshes of the northern IRL Estuary produce a high standing stock of resident fishes. Seasonal patterns of abundance were consistent with fish moving between vegetated and unvegetated habitat as water levels changed in the estuary. Differences in density, mean size, and species composition of resident fishes between vegetated and unvegetated habitats have important implications for movement of biomass and nutrients out of salt marsh by piscivores (e.g., wading birds and fishes) via a trophic relay.

Regional and seasonal patterns of epipelagic fish assemblages from the central California Current

The coastal Pacific Ocean off northern and central California encompasses the strongest seasonal upwelling zone in the California Current ecosystem. Headlands and bays here generate complex circulation features and confer unusual oceanographic complexity. We sampled the coastal epipelagic fish community of this region with a surface trawl in the summer and fall of 2000–05 to assess patterns of spatial and temporal community structure. Fifty-three species of fish were captured in 218 hauls at 34 fixed stations, with clupeiform species dominating. To examine spatial patterns, samples were grouped by location relative to a prominent headland at Point Reyes and the resulting two regions, north coast and Gulf of the Farallones, were plotted by using nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Seasonal and interannual patterns were also examined, and representative species were identified for each distinct community. Seven oceanographic variables measured concurrently with trawling were plotted by principal components analysis and tested for correlation with biotic patterns. We found significant differences in community structure by region, year, and season, but no interaction among main effects. Significant differences in oceanographic conditions mirrored the biotic patterns, and a match between biotic and hydrographic structure was detected. Dissimilarity between assemblages was mostly the result of differences in abundance and frequency of occurrence of about twelve common species. Community patterns were best described by a subset of hydrographic variables, including water depth, distance from shore, and any one of several correlated variables associated with upwelling intensity. Rather than discrete communities with clear borders and distinct member species, we found gradients in community structure and identified stations with similar fish communities by region and by proximity to features such as the San Francisco Bay.

Effects of commercial fishing on local abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the Bering Sea

Groundfish fisheries in the southeast Bering Sea in Alaska have been constrained in recent years by management measures to protect the endangered Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). There is concern that the present commercial harvest may produce a localized depletion of groundfish that would affect the foraging success of Steller sea lions or other predators. A three-year field experiment was conducted to determine whether an intensive trawl fishery in the southeast Bering Sea created a localized depletion in the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). This experiment produced strongly negative results; no difference was found in the rate of seasonal change in Pacific cod abundance between stations within a regulatory no-trawl zone and stations in an immediately adjacent trawled area. Corollary studies showed that Pacific cod in the study area were highly mobile and indicated that the geographic scale of Pacific cod movement was larger than the spatial scale used as the basis for current no-trawl zones. The idea of localized depletion is strongly dependent on assumed spatial and temporal scales and contains an implicit assumption that there is a closed local population. The scale of movement of target organisms is critical in determining regional effects of fishery removals.

Ichthyoplankton community in the Columbia River plume off Oregon: effects of fluctuating oceanographic conditions

Ichthyoplankton samples were collected at approximately 2-week intervals, primarily during spring and summer 1999−2004, from two stations located 20 and 30 km from shore near the Columbia River, Oregon. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) was the most abundant species collected, and was the primary species associated with summer upwelling conditions, but it showed significant interannual and seasonal fluctuations in abundance and occurrence. Other abundant taxa included sanddabs (Citharichthys spp.), English sole (Parophrys vetulus), and blacksmelts (Bathylagidae). Two-way cluster analysis revealed strong species associations based primarily on season (before or after the spring transition date). Ichthyoplankton abundances were compared to biological and environmental data, and egg and larvae abundances were found to be most correlated with sea surface temperature. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed sign (from negative to positive) in late 2002 and indicated overall warmer conditions in the North Pacific Ocean. Climate change is expected to alter ocean upwelling, temperatures, and Columbia River flows, and consequently fish eggs and larvae distributions and survival. Long-term research is needed to identify how ichthyoplankton and fish recruitment are affected by regional and largescale oceanographic proces

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Monoculture of marine planktonic diatoms and the effects of different media on their growth and survival

Diatoms are the preferred live food of the protozoea stages of prawns. Due to seasonal variations, it is difficult to obtain continuous supply of diatoms and other algae throughout the year. Therefore mass culture of diatoms is necessary. At attempt was made to culture planktonic diatoms and to study the effect of Allen and Nelson media, Simon media, Vitamin B12 and treated sewage water media on their growth and survival. Navicula sp showed better growth in Allen and Nelson media, Coscinodiscus and Chaetoceros grew better in Simon media while Navicula sp and Coscinodiscus sp showed better growth in the combination of Allen and Nelson + Vitamin B12.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.

Effects of food and topography on ranging behavior of black crested gibbon (Nomascus concolor jingdongensis) in Wuliang mountain, Yunnan, China

We studied the ranging behavior of a habituated group of black crested gibbons (Nomascus concolor jingdongensis) in a high, seasonal habitat on Mt. Wuliang, central Yunnan, China, between March 2005 and April 2006. Our results indicated that the total home range size for the study group was 129 ha, or 151 ha if the lacunae within the borders in which gibbons were not observed were included. This is a much bigger range size than that of other gibbon species. However, 69.7% of their activities occurred within 29 ha. The intensity of quadrant use was significantly correlated with the distribution of important food patches. The mean yearly daily path length was 1,391 m. Gibbons traveled farther when they spent more time feeding on fruit. To avoid often passing through ridges with little food, gibbons usually stayed in the same valley for successive days, and then moved on to another valley for another several days, which resulted in a concentrated ranging pattern.