Whole of life cycle cost analysis in bridge rehabilitation

The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.

A geometrical analysis of trajectory design for underwater vehicles

Designing trajectories for a submerged rigid body motivates this paper. Two approaches are addressed: the time optimal approach and the motion planning ap- proach using concatenation of kinematic motions. We focus on the structure of singular extremals and their relation to the existence of rank-one kinematic reduc- tions; thereby linking the optimization problem to the inherent geometric frame- work. Using these kinematic reductions, we provide a solution to the motion plan- ning problem in the under-actuated scenario, or equivalently, in the case of actuator failures. We finish the paper comparing a time optimal trajectory to one formed by concatenation of pure motions.

Analysis of the build-up of semi and non volatile organic compounds on urban roads

Vehicular traffic in urban areas may adversely affect urban water quality through the build-up of traffic generated semi and non volatile organic compounds (SVOCs and NVOCs) on road surfaces. The characterisation of the build-up processes is the key to developing mitigation measures for the removal of such pollutants from urban stormwater. An in-depth analysis of the build-up of SVOCs and NVOCs was undertaken in the Gold Coast region in Australia. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the SVOC and NVOC build-up under combined traffic scenarios of low, moderate, and high traffic in different land uses. It was found that congestion in the commercial areas and use of lubricants and motor oils in the industrial areas were the main sources of SVOCs and NVOCs on urban roads, respectively. The contribution from residential areas to the build-up of such pollutants was hardly noticeable. It was also revealed through this investigation that the target SVOCs and NVOCs were mainly attached to particulate fractions of 75 to 300 µm whilst the redistribution of coarse fractions due to vehicle activity mainly occurred in the >300 µm size range. Lastly, under combined traffic scenario, moderate traffic with average daily traffic ranging from 2300 to 5900 and average congestion of 0.47 was found to dominate SVOC and NVOC build-up on roads.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Modelling and analysis of the crush zone of a typical Australian passenger train

In this paper, a three-dimensional nonlinear rigid body model has been developed for the investigation of the crashworthiness of a passenger train using the multibody dynamics approach. This model refers to a typical design of passenger cars and train constructs commonly used in Australia. The high-energy and low-energy crush zones of the cars and the train constructs are assumed and the data are explicitly provided in the paper. The crash scenario is limited to the train colliding on to a fixed barrier symmetrically. The simulations of a single car show that this initial design is only applicable for the crash speed of 35 km/h or lower. For higher speeds (e.g. 140 km/h), the crush lengths or crush forces or both the crush zone elements will have to be enlarged. It is generally better to increase the crush length than the crush force in order to retain the low levels of the longitudinal deceleration of the passenger cars.

Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield

Projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and air temperature associated with future climate change are expected to affect crop development, crop yield, and, consequently, global food supplies. They are also likely to change agricultural production practices, especially those related to agricultural water management and sowing date. The magnitude of these changes and their implications to local production systems are mostly unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (i) simulate the effect of projected climate change on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Lang) yield and water use for the subtropical environment of the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia; and (ii) investigate the impact of changing sowing date, as an adaptation strategy to future climate change scenarios, on wheat yield and water use. The multimodel climate projections from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the period 2030–2070 were used in this study. Climate scenarios included combinations of four changes in air temperature (08C, 18C, 28C, and 38C), three [CO2] levels (380 ppm, 500 ppm, and 600 ppm), and three changes in rainfall (–30%, 0%, and +20%), which were superimposed on observed station data. Crop management scenarios included a combination of six sowing dates (1 May, 10 May, 20 May, 1 June, 10 June, and 20 June) and three irrigation regimes (no irrigation (NI), deficit irrigation (DI), and full irrigation (FI)). Simulations were performed with the model DSSAT4.5, using 50 years of daily weather data.Wefound that: (1) grain yield and water-use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration) increased linearly with [CO2]; (2) increases in [CO2] had minimal impact on evapotranspiration; (3) yield increased with increasing temperature for the irrigated scenarios (DI and FI), but decreased for the NI scenario; (4) yield increased with earlier sowing dates; and (5) changes in rainfall had a small impact on yield for DI and FI, but a high impact for the NI scenario.

Examination of distracted driving and yellow light running : analysis of simulator data

Driving on an approach to a signalized intersection while distracted is particularly dangerous, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be severe. Given the prevalence and importance of this particular scenario, the decisions and actions of distracted drivers during the onset of yellow lights are the focus of this study. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 58 drivers under baseline and handheld mobile phone conditions at the University of Iowa - National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables included age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. Although there is extensive research on drivers’ responses to yellow traffic signals, the examination has been conducted from a traditional regression-based approach, which does not necessary provide the underlying relations and patterns among the sampled data. In this paper, we exploit the benefits of both classical statistical inference and data mining techniques to identify the a priori relationships among main effects, non-linearities, and interaction effects. Results suggest that novice (16-17 years) and young drivers’ (18-25 years) have heightened yellow light running risk while distracted by a cell phone conversation. Driver experience captured by age has a multiplicative effect with distraction, making the combined effect of being inexperienced and distracted particularly risky. Overall, distracted drivers across most tested groups tend to reduce the propensity of yellow light running as the distance to stop line increases, exhibiting risk compensation on a critical driving situation.

Surgical site infection prevention following total hip arthroplasty in Australia : a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.

Experimental impact and finite element analysis of a composite, portable road safety barrier

This thesis provides an experimental and computational platform for investigating the performance and behaviour of water filled, plastic portable road safety barriers in an isolated impact scenario. A schedule of experimental impact tests were conducted assessing the impact response of an existing design of road safety barrier utilising a novel horizontal impact testing system. A coupled finite element and smooth particle hydrodynamic model of the barrier system was developed and validated against the results of the experimental tests. The validated model was subsequently used to assess the effect of certain composite materials on the impact performance of the water filled, portable road safety barrier system.

Nonlinear pre-fire and post-fire analysis of steel frames

A numerical procedure based on the plastic hinge concept for study of the structural behaviour of steel framed structures exposed to fire is described. Most previous research on fire analysis considered the structural performance due to rising temperature. When strain reversal occurs during the cooling phase, the stress–strain curve is different. The plastic deformation is incorporated into the stress–strain curve to model the strain reversal effect in which unloading under elastic behaviour is allowed. This unloading response is traced by the incremental–iterative Newton–Raphson method. The mechanical properties of the steel member in the present fire analysis follows both Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and BS5950 Part 8, which implicitly allow for thermal creep deformation. This paper presents an efficient fire analysis procedure for predicting thermal and cooling effects on an isolated element and a multi-storey frame. Several numerical and experimental examples related to structural behaviour in cooling phase are studied and compared with results obtained by other researchers. The proposed method is effective in the fire safety design and analysis of a building in a real fire scenario. The scope of investigation is of great significance since a large number of rescuers would normally enter a fire site as soon as the fire is extinguished and during the cooling phase, so a structural collapse can be catastrophic.

The tertiary debate : a case study analysis of factors considered when applying for university entry by traditional age school leavers in Brisbane

Many interacting factors contribute to a student's choice of a university. This study takes a systems perspective of the choice and develops a Bayesian Network to represent and quantify these factors and their interactions. The systems model is illustrated through a small study of traditional school leavers in Australia, and highlights similarities and differences between universities' perceptions of student choices, students' perceptions of factors that they should consider and how students really make choices. The study shows the range of information that can be gained from this approach, including identification of important factors and scenario assessment.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

UWB channel measurement and data transfer analysis for multiuser Infostation applications

In this paper, the results of the time dispersion parameters obtained from a set of channel measurements conducted in various environments that are typical of multiuser Infostation application scenarios are presented. The measurement procedure takes into account the practical scenarios typical of the positions and movements of the users in the particular Infostation network. To provide one with the knowledge of how much data can be downloaded by users over a given time and mobile speed, data transfer analysis for multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) is presented. As expected, the rough estimate of simultaneous data transfer in a multiuser Infostation scenario indicates dependency of the percentage of download on the data size, number and speed of the users, and the elapse time.