Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Securitizing infectious disease

Over the past decade there has been an increased awareness in the field of international relations of the potential impact of an infectious disease epidemic on national security. While states’ attempts to combat infectious disease have a long history, what is new in this area is the adoption at the international level of securitized responses regarding the containment of infectious disease. This article argues that the securitization of infectious disease by states and the World Health Organization (WHO) has led to two key developments. First, the WHO has had to assert itself as the primary actor that all states, particularly western states, can rely upon to contain the threat of infectious diseases. The WHO's apparent success in this is evidenced by the development of the Global Outbreak Alert Response Network (GOARN), which has led to arguments that the WHO has emerged as the key authority in global health governance. The second outcome that this article seeks to explore is the development of the WHO's authority in the area of infectious disease surveillance. In particular, is GOARN a representation of the WHO's consummate authority in the area of coordinating infectious disease response or is GOARN the product of the WHO's capitulation to western states’ concerns with preventing infectious disease outbreaks from reaching their borders and as a result, are arguments expressing the authority of the WHO in infectious disease response premature?

What contribution can International Relations make to the evolving global health agenda?

This article presents two approaches that have dominated International Relations in their approach to the international politics of health. The statist approach, which is primarily security-focused, seeks to link health initiatives to a foreign or defence policy remit. The globalist approach, in contrast, seeks to advance health not because of its intrinsic security value but because it advances the well-being and rights of individuals. This article charts the evolution of these approaches and demonstrates why both have the potential to shape our understanding of the evolving global health agenda. It examines how the statist and globalist perspectives have helped shape contemporary initiatives in global health governance and suggests that there is evidence of an emerging convergence between the two perspectives. This convergence is particularly clear in the articulation of a number of UN initiatives in this area—especially the One World, One Health Strategic Framework and the Oslo Ministerial Declaration (2007) which inspired the first UN General Assembly resolution on global health and foreign policy in 2009 and the UN Secretary-General's note ‘Global health and foreign policy: strategic opportunities and challenges'. What remains to be seen is whether this convergence will deliver on securing states’ interest long enough to promote the interests of the individuals who require global efforts to deliver local health improvements.

Book reviews : "Biosecurity interventions: global health and security in question"

International Relations’ engagement with global health governance has proliferated in the last decade. There are a number of excellent works that seek to understand how the relationship between politics and health shapes and informs people’s lives and governments’ policies. However, the overt securitization of health by the IR field has, Biosecurity interventions argues, remained relatively unproblematized...

Long-term care and family bargaining

We present a structural model of how families decide who should care for elderly parents. We use data from the National Long-Term Care Survey to estimate and test the parameters of the model. Then we use the parameter estimates to simulate the effects of the existing long-term trends in terms of the common but untested explanations for them. Finally, we simulate the effects of alternative family bargaining rules on individual utility to measure the sensitivity of our results to the family decision-making assumptions we make.

Formal home health care, informal care, and family decision making

We use the 1993 wave of the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) data set to estimate a game-theoretic model of families' decisions concerning the provision of informal and formal care for elderly individuals. The outcome is the Nash equilibrium where each family member jointly determines her consumption, transfers for formal care, and allocation of time to informal care, market work, and leisure. We use the estimates to decompose the effects of adult children's opportunity costs, quality of care, and caregiving burden on their propensities to provide informal care. We also simulate the effects of a broad range of policies of current interest. © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Cohabitation, marriage, and divorce in a model of match quality

The objective of this research is to further our understanding of how and why individuals enter and leave coresidential relationships. We develop and estimate an economic model of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and divorce that is consistent with current data on the formation and dissolution of relationships. Jovanovic's (Journal of Political Economy 87 (1979), 972-90) theoretical matching model is extended to help explain household formation and dissolution behavior. Implications of the model reveal what factors influence the decision to start a relationship, what form this relationship will take, and the relative stability of the various types of unions. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using longitudinal data from a sample of female high school seniors from the United States. New numerical methods are developed to reduce computational costs associated with estimation. The empirical results have interesting interpretations given the structural model. They show that a significant cause of cohabitation is the need to learn about potential partners and to hedge against future bad shocks. The estimated parameters are used to conduct several comparative dynamic experiments. For example, we show that policy experiments changing the cost of divorce have little effect on relationship choices.

Cultural economy planning in creative cities : discourse and practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.

Specialist versus generic models of psychiatry training and service provision for people with intellectual disabilities

Background  Models of service provision and professional training differ between countries. This study aims to investigate a specialist intellectual disabilities model and a generic mental health model, specifically comparing psychiatrists’ knowledge and competencies, and service quality and accessibility in meeting the mental health needs of people with intellectual disabilities. Method  Data were collected from consultant and trainee psychiatrists within a specialist intellectual disabilities model (UK) and a generic mental health model (Australia). Results  The sample sizes were 294 (UK) and 205 (Australia). Statistically significant differences were found, with UK participants having positive views about the specialist intellectual disabilities service model they worked within, demonstrating flexible and accessible working practices and service provision, responsive to the range of mental health needs of the population with intellectual disabilities, and providing a wide range of treatments and supports. The UK participants were knowledgeable, well trained and confident in their work. They wanted to work with people with intellectual disabilities. In all of these areas, the converse was found from the Australian generic mental health service model. Conclusions  The specialist intellectual disabilities model of service provision and training has advantages over the generic mental health model.

Improvement of the mode II interface fracture toughness of glass fiber reinforced plastics/aluminum laminates through vapor grown carbon fiber interleaves

The effects of acid treatment, vapor grown carbon fiber (VGCF) interlayer and the angle, i.e., 0° and 90°, between the rolling stripes of an aluminum (Al) plate and the fiber direction of glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP) on the mode II interlaminar mechanical properties of GFRP/Al laminates were investigated. The experimental results of an end notched flexure test demonstrate that the acid treatment and the proper addition of VGCF can effectively improve the critical load and mode II fracture toughness of GFRP/Al laminates. The specimens with acid treatment and 10 g m−2 VGCF addition possess the highest mode II fracture toughness, i.e., 269% and 385% increases in the 0° and 90° specimens, respectively compared to those corresponding pristine ones. Due to the induced anisotropy by the rolling stripes on the aluminum plate, the 90° specimens possess 15.3%–73.6% higher mode II fracture toughness compared to the 0° specimens. The improvement mechanisms were explored by the observation of crack propagation path and fracture surface with optical, laser scanning and scanning electron microscopies. Moreover, finite element analyses were carried out based on the cohesive zone model to verify the experimental fracture toughness and to predict the interface shear strength between the aluminum plates and GFRP laminates.

Identification of optimal epitopes for Plasmodium falciparum rapid diagnostic tests that target histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent important tools to diagnose malaria infection. To improve understanding of the variable performance of RDTs that detect the major target in Plasmodium falciparum, namely, histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), and to inform the design of better tests, we undertook detailed mapping of the epitopes recognized by eight HRP-specific monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). To investigate the geographic skewing of this polymorphic protein, we analyzed the distribution of these epitopes in parasites from geographically diverse areas. To identify an ideal amino acid motif for a MAb to target in HRP2 and in the related protein HRP3, we used a purpose-designed script to perform bioinformatic analysis of 448 distinct gene sequences from pfhrp2 and from 99 sequences from the closely related gene pfhrp3. The frequency and distribution of these motifs were also compared to the MAb epitopes. Heat stability testing of MAbs immobilized on nitrocellulose membranes was also performed. Results of these experiments enabled the identification of MAbs with the most desirable characteristics for inclusion in RDTs, including copy number and coverage of target epitopes, geographic skewing, heat stability, and match with the most abundant amino acid motifs identified. This study therefore informs the selection of MAbs to include in malaria RDTs as well as in the generation of improved MAbs that should improve the performance of HRP-detecting malaria RDTs.

Building the science and innovation base: work, skills and employment issues

This Special Issue of New Technology, Work and Employment has been prompted by the increasing awareness in many countries of the need to maintain and grow their science and innovation base. The development of science, engineering, technology and mathematics (STEM) skills and capacity is seen as vital for economic development and prosperity through its impact on national and regional research and development (R&D), technological advancement, and innovation potential.

Productivity analysis with CO2 emissions in Japan

This article measures Japanese prefectures' productivity from 1991 to 2002, taking CO2 emissions into consideration, and examines the factors that impact on productivity. We use the data envelopment analysis and measure the Luenberger productivity indicator, incorporating CO2 emissions in the analysis. Our results show that productivity was decreasing during the period of investigation. According to the results of the generalized method of moment estimation, the operations rate, the share of the energy intensive industries and social capital significantly impact on productivity.

Technical efficiency, regulation and heterogeneity in Japanese airports

In this paper, the random stochastic frontier model is used to estimate the technical efficiency of Japanese airports, with regulation and heterogeneity included in the variables. The airports are ranked according to their productivity for the period 1987-2005 and homogeneous and heterogeneous variables in the cost function are disentangled. Policy implications are derived.