The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

Does board gender diversity have a financial impact? Evidence using stock portfolio performance.

There is growing regulatory pressure on firms worldwide to address the under-representation of women in senior positions. Regulators have taken a variety of approaches to the issue. We investigate a jurisdiction that has issued recommendations and disclosure requirements, rather than implementing quotas. Much of the rhetoric surrounding gender diversity centres on whether diversity has a financial impact. In this paper we take an aggregate (market-level) approach and compare the performance of portfolios of firms with gender diverse boards to those without. We also investigate whether having multiple women on the board is linked to performance, and if there is a within-industry effect. Overall, we do not find evidence of an association between diversity and performance. We find some weak evidence of a negative correlation between having multiple women on the board and performance, but that in some industries diversity is positively correlated with performance.

Quantitative genetic parameter estimates for body and carcass traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest weight in Vietnam

We estimated the heritability and correlations between body and carcass weight traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest body weight in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body and carcass weight traits were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P>. 0.05). Maternal effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females than in males. Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in the mixed sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high. Although some issues remain regarding the best statistical model to be fitted to GFP data, our results suggest that selection for high harvest body weight based on breeding values estimated by fitting an animal model to the data can significantly improve mean body and carcass weight in GFP.

Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

Review: "Health service frameworks for small rural and remote communities: issues and options" by J. Humphreys, S. Mathews-Cowey, F. Rolley 1996

This monograph is a welcome investigation of current issues in rural health service delivery in smaller communities. The underlying assumption is that existing health service frameworks for rural and remote communities with populations of less than 230 are simply- not appropriate for their needs. With this in mind, the authors identify the strengths and weaknesses of frameworks presently utilised, and offer viable alternatives. They have made information accessible to those who wish to improve the delivery of rural health care, and have provided a catalyst for further research and dialogue on rural health issues...

Reshaping our protective systems : issues and options

Australia's systems for protecting children from child abuse and neglect are undergoing reform in light of the National Framework for Protecting Australia's Children and innumerable judicial and other inquiries into their operations and outcomes. This article examines the current context for child protection practice and critically examines the dominant policy and practice frameworks, highlighting issues confronting policy makers and practitioners. Within the current systematic reform agendas, it is posited, there are key priorities that must be attended to in order to bring about necessary change, workforce support and a renewed emphasis on quality professional practice and re-orientation of practice approaches. Also required is the embedding of ethics into a relationship-based practice framework, and revitalising localised community involvement in a protective web of care that provides practical, compassionate and accessible help to needy and vulnerable children and families.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Status of the world's remaining closed forests : an assessment using satellite data and policy options

Historically, it appears that some of the WRCF have survived because i) they lack sufficient quantity of commercially valuable species; ii) they are located in remote or inaccessible areas; or iii) they have been protected as national parks and sanctuaries. Forests will be protected when people who are deciding the fate of forests conclude than the conservation of forests is more beneficial, e.g. generates higher incomes or has cultural or social values, than their clearance. If this is not the case, forests will continue to be cleared and converted. In the future, the WRCF may be protected only by focused attention. The future policy options may include strategies for strong protection measures, the raising of public awareness about the value of forests, and concerted actions for reducing pressure on forest lands by providing alternatives to forest exploitation to meet the growing demands of forest products. Many areas with low population densities offer an opportunity for conservation if appropriate steps are taken now by the national governments and international community. This opportunity must be founded upon the increased public and government awareness that forests have vast importance to the welfare of humans and ecosystems' services such as biodiversity, watershed protection, and carbon balance. Also paramount to this opportunity is the increased scientific understanding of forest dynamics and technical capability to install global observation and assessment systems. High-resolution satellite data such as Landsat 7 and other technologically advanced satellite programs will provide unprecedented monitoring options for governing authorities. Technological innovation can contribute to the way forests are protected. The use of satellite imagery for regular monitoring and Internet for information dissemination provide effective tools for raising worldwide awareness about the significance of forests and intrinsic value of nature.

Quantitative genetic parameters for body traits at different ages in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for fast growth

The aim of the current study was to estimate heritabilities and correlations for body traits at different ages (Weeks 10 and 18 after stocking) in a giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) population selected for fast growth rate in Vietnam. The dataset consisted of 4650 body records (2432 and 2218 records collected at Weeks 10 and 18, respectively) in the full pedigree comprising a total of 18 387 records. Variance and covariance components were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Estimates of heritability for body traits (bodyweight, body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width) were moderate and ranged from 0.06 to 0.11 and from 0.11 to 0.22 at Weeks 10 and 18, respectively. Body-trait heritabilities estimated at Week 10 were not significantly lower than at Week 18. Genetic correlations between body traits within age and genetic correlations for body traits between ages were generally high. Our results suggested that selection for high growth rate in GFP can be undertaken successfully before full market size has been reached.