Alternative harvest strategies to alleviate predation bottlenecks: a bioeconomic modeling approach to inform adaptive management

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Should managed populations be monitored every year?

We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system call outperform fixed-interval monitoring This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropits rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is-important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Spatio-temporal intensity dynamics of passively mode-locked fiber laser

We present recent results on measurements of intensity spatio-temporal dynamics in passively mode-locked fibre laser. We experimentally uncover distinct, dynamic and stable spatio-temporal generation regimes of various stochasticity and periodicity properties in though-to-be unstable laser. We present a method to distinguish various types of generated coherent structures, including rogue and shock waves, within the radiation by means of introducing of intensity ACF evolution map. We also discuss how the spectral dynamics could be measured in fiber lasers generating irregular train of pulses of quasi-CW generation via combination of heterodyning and intensity spatio-temporal measurement concept.

Dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in a landfill with interacting phase densities:a stochastic analysis

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear subprocesses that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction-diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables - solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth-decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically "irrelevant" in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20-30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.

Behavior Genetics and Post Genomics

The science of genetics is undergoing a paradigm shift. Recent discoveries, including the activity of retrotransposons, the extent of copy number variations, somatic and chromosomal mosaicism, and the nature of the epigenome as a regulator of DNA expressivity, are challenging a series of dogmas concerning the nature of the genome and the relationship between genotype and phenotype. DNA, once held to be the unchanging template of heredity, now appears subject to a good deal of environmental change; considered to be identical in all cells and tissues of the body, there is growing evidence that somatic mosaicism is the normal human condition; and treated as the sole biological agent of heritability, we now know that the epigenome, which regulates gene expressivity, can be inherited via the germline. These developments are particularly significant for behavior genetics for at least three reasons: First, these phenomena appear to be particularly prevalent in the human brain, and likely are involved in much of human behavior; second, they have important implications for the validity of heritability and gene association studies, the methodologies that largely define the discipline of behavior genetics; and third, they appear to play a critical role in development during the perinatal period, and in enabling phenotypic plasticity in offspring in particular. I examine one of the central claims to emerge from the use of heritability studies in the behavioral sciences, the principle of “minimal shared maternal effects,” in light of the growing awareness that the maternal perinatal environment is a critical venue for the exercise of adaptive phenotypic plasticity. This consideration has important implications for both developmental and evolutionary biology

Progenitor-Dependent Explosion Dynamics in Self-Consistent, Axisymmetric Simulations of Neutrino-Driven Core-Collapse Supernovae

We present self-consistent, axisymmetric core-collapse supernova simulations performed with the Prometheus-Vertex code for 18 pre-supernova models in the range of 11–28 M ⊙, including progenitors recently investigated by other groups. All models develop explosions, but depending on the progenitor structure, they can be divided into two classes. With a steep density decline at the Si/Si–O interface, the arrival of this interface at the shock front leads to a sudden drop of the mass-accretion rate, triggering a rapid approach to explosion. With a more gradually decreasing accretion rate, it takes longer for the neutrino heating to overcome the accretion ram pressure and explosions set in later. Early explosions are facilitated by high mass-accretion rates after bounce and correspondingly high neutrino luminosities combined with a pronounced drop of the accretion rate and ram pressure at the Si/Si–O interface. Because of rapidly shrinking neutron star radii and receding shock fronts after the passage through their maxima, our models exhibit short advection timescales, which favor the efficient growth of the standing accretion-shock instability. The latter plays a supportive role at least for the initiation of the re-expansion of the stalled shock before runaway. Taking into account the effects of turbulent pressure in the gain layer, we derive a generalized condition for the critical neutrino luminosity that captures the explosion behavior of all models very well. We validate the robustness of our findings by testing the influence of stochasticity, numerical resolution, and approximations in some aspects of the microphysics.

Ecoviability for small-scale fisheries in the context of food security constraints

This paper applies a stochastic viability approach to a tropical small-scale fishery, offering a theoretical and empirical example of ecosystem-based fishery management approach that accounts for food security. The model integrates multi-species, multi-fleet and uncertainty as well as profitability, food production, and demographic growth. It is calibrated over the period 2006–2010 using monthly catch and effort data from the French Guiana's coastal fishery, involving thirteen species and four fleets. Using projections at the horizon 2040, different management strategies and scenarios are compared from a viability viewpoint, thus accounting for biodiversity preservation, fleet profitability and food security. The analysis shows that under certain conditions, viable options can be identified which allow fishing intensity and production to be increased to respond to food security requirements but with minimum impacts on the marine resources.

Demography of a deep-sea lantern shark (Etmopterus spinax) caught in trawl fisheries of the northeastern Atlantic: Application of Leslie matrices with incorporated uncertainties

The deep-sea lantern shark Etmopterus spinax occurs in the northeast Atlantic on or near the bottoms of the outer continental shelves and slopes, and is regularly captured as bycatch in deep-water commercial fisheries. Given the lack of knowledge on the impacts of fisheries on this species, a demographic analysis using age-based Leslie matrices was carried out. Given the uncertainties in the mortality estimates and in the available life history parameters, several different scenarios, some incorporating stochasticity in the life history parameters (using Monte Carlo simulation), were analyzed. If only natural mortality were considered, even after introducing uncertainties in all parameters, the estimated population growth rate (A) suggested an increasing population. However, if fishing mortality from trawl fisheries is considered, the estimates of A either indicated increasing or declining populations. In these latter cases, the uncertainties in the species reproductive cycle seemed to be particularly relevant, as a 2-year reproductive cycle indicated a stable population, while a longer (3-year cycle) indicated a declining population. The estimated matrix elasticities were in general higher for the survivorship parameters of the younger age classes and tended to decrease for the older ages. This highlights the susceptibility of this deep-sea squaloid to increasing fishing mortality, emphasizing that even though this is a small-sized species, it shows population dynamics patterns more typical of the larger-sized and in general more vulnerable species. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.