Time-domain models for power system stability and unbalance

It is an important and difficult challenge to protect modern interconnected power system from blackouts. Applying advanced power system protection techniques and increasing power system stability are ways to improve the reliability and security of power systems. Phasor-domain software packages such as Power System Simulator for Engineers (PSS/E) can be used to study large power systems but cannot be used for transient analysis. In order to observe both power system stability and transient behavior of the system during disturbances, modeling has to be done in the time-domain. This work focuses on modeling of power systems and various control systems in the Alternative Transients Program (ATP). ATP is a time-domain power system modeling software in which all the power system components can be modeled in detail. Models are implemented with attention to component representation and parameters. The synchronous machine model includes the saturation characteristics and control interface. Transient Analysis Control System is used to model the excitation control system, power system stabilizer and the turbine governor system of the synchronous machine. Several base cases of a single machine system are modeled and benchmarked against PSS/E. A two area system is modeled and inter-area and intra-area oscillations are observed. The two area system is reduced to a two machine system using reduced dynamic equivalencing. The original and the reduced systems are benchmarked against PSS/E. This work also includes the simulation of single-pole tripping using one of the base case models. Advantages of single-pole tripping and comparison of system behavior against three-pole tripping are studied. Results indicate that the built-in control system models in PSS/E can be effectively reproduced in ATP. The benchmarked models correctly simulate the power system dynamics. The successful implementation of a dynamically reduced system in ATP shows promise for studying a small sub-system of a large system without losing the dynamic behaviors. Other aspects such as relaying can be investigated using the benchmarked models. It is expected that this work will provide guidance in modeling different control systems for the synchronous machine and in representing dynamic equivalents of large power systems.

Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM) for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.

Reliability and reproductibility of skin temperature of overweight subjects by an infrared thermograpy software designed for human beings

The technical improvement and new applications of Infrared Thermography (IRT) with healthy subjects should be accompanied by results about the reproducibility of IRT measurements in different popula-tion groups. In addition, there is a remarkable necessity of a larger supply on software to analyze IRT images of human beings. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: firstly, to investigate the reproducibility of skin temperature (Tsk) on overweight and obese subjects using IRT in different Regions of Interest (ROI), moments and side-to-side differences (?T); and secondly, to check the reliability of a new software called Termotracker®, specialized on the analysis of IRT images of human beings. Methods: 22 overweight and obese males (11) and females (11) (age: 41,51±7,76 years; height: 1,65±0,09 m; weight: 82,41±11,81 Kg; BMI: 30,17±2,58 kg/m²) were assessed in two consecutive thermograms (5 seconds in-between) by the same observer, using an infrared camera (FLIR T335, Sweden) to get 4 IRT images from the whole body. 11 ROI were selected using Termotracker® to analyze its reproducibility and reliability through Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Coefficient of Variation (CV) values. Results: The reproducibility of the side-to-side differences (?T) between two consecutive thermograms was very high in all ROIs (Mean ICC = 0,989), and excellent between two computers (Mean ICC = 0,998). The re-liability of the software was very high in all the ROIs (Mean ICC = 0,999). Intraexaminer reliability analysing the same subjects in two consecutive thermograms was also very high (Mean ICC = 0,997). CV values of the different ROIs were around 2%. Conclusions: Skin temperature on overweight subjects had an excellent reproducibility for consecutive ther-mograms. The reproducibility of thermal asymmetries (?T) was also good but it had the influence of several factors that should be further investigated. Termotracker® reached excellent reliability results and it is a relia-ble and objective software to analyse IRT images of humans beings.

The Role of Knowledge Modeling Techniques in Software Development: A General Approach Based on a Knowledge Management Tool

The aim of the paper is to discuss the use of knowledge models to formulate general applications. First, the paper presents the recent evolution of the software field where increasing attention is paid to conceptual modeling. Then, the current state of knowledge modeling techniques is described where increased reliability is available through the modern knowledge acquisition techniques and supporting tools. The KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager) tool is described next. First, the concept of knowledge area is introduced as a building block where methods to perform a collection of tasks are included together with the bodies of knowledge providing the basic methods to perform the basic tasks. Then, the CONCEL language to define vocabularies of domains and the LINK language for methods formulation are introduced. Finally, the object oriented implementation of a knowledge area is described and a general methodology for application design and maintenance supported by KSM is proposed. To illustrate the concepts and methods, an example of system for intelligent traffic management in a road network is described. This example is followed by a proposal of generalization for reuse of the resulting architecture. Finally, some concluding comments are proposed about the feasibility of using the knowledge modeling tools and methods for general application design.

Reliability of rubble-mound breakwater stability models /

Prepared for Public Service Electric and Gas Co., Newark, N. J.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Enhanced semantic access to formal software models

The success of the Semantic Web, as the next generation of Web technology, can have profound impact on the environment for formal software development. It allows both the software engineers and machines to understand the content of formal models and supports more effective software design in terms of understanding, sharing and reusing in a distributed manner. To realise the full potential of the Semantic Web in formal software development, effectively creating proper semantic metadata for formal software models and their related software artefacts is crucial. In this paper, a methodology with tool support is proposed to automatically derive ontological metadata from formal software models and semantically describe them.

On the use of software models during software execution

Increasingly software systems are required to survive variations in their execution environment without or with only little human intervention. Such systems are called "eternal software systems". In contrast to the traditional view of development and execution as separate cycles, these modern software systems should not present such a separation. Research in MDE has been primarily concerned with the use of models during the first cycle or development (i.e. during the design, implementation, and deployment) and has shown excellent results. In this paper the author argues that an eternal software system must have a first-class representation of itself available to enable change. These runtime representations (or runtime models) will depend on the kind of dynamic changes that we want to make available during execution or on the kind of analysis we want the system to support. Hence, different models can be conceived. Self-representation inevitably implies the use of reflection. In this paper the author briefly summarizes research that supports the use of runtime models, and points out different issues and research questions. © 2009 IEEE.

Exploring the digital supply chain:implications and models for online software distribution

As a discipline, supply chain management (SCM) has traditionally been primarily concerned with the procurement, processing, movement and sale of physical goods. However an important class of products has emerged - digital products - which cannot be described as physical as they do not obey commonly understood physical laws. They do not possess mass or volume, and they require no energy in their manufacture or distribution. With the Internet, they can be distributed at speeds unimaginable in the physical world, and every copy produced is a 100% perfect duplicate of the original version. Furthermore, the ease with which digital products can be replicated has few analogues in the physical world. This paper assesses the effect of non-physicality on one such product – software – in relation to the practice of SCM. It explores the challenges that arise when managing the software supply chain and how practitioners are addressing these challenges. Using a two-pronged exploratory approach that examines the literature around software management as well as direct interviews with software distribution practitioners, a number of key challenges associated with software supply chains are uncovered, along with responses to these challenges. This paper proposes a new model for software supply chains that takes into account the non-physicality of the product being delivered. Central to this model is the replacement of physical flows with flows of intellectual property, the growing importance of innovation over duplication and the increased centrality of the customer in the entire process. Hybrid physical / digital supply chains are discussed and a framework for practitioners concerned with software supply chains is presented.

On the Models of Development and Distribution of Software

The notion model of development and distribution of software (MDDS) is introduced and its role for the efficiency of the software products is stressed. Two classical MDDS are presented and some attempts to adapt them to the contemporary trends in web-based software design are described. Advantages and shortcomings of the obtained models are outlined. In conclusion the desired features of a better MDDS for web-based solutions are given.

An automated tool for semantic accessing to formal software models

Many software engineers have found that it is difficult to understand, incorporate and use different formal models consistently in the process of software developments, especially for large and complex software systems. This is mainly due to the complex mathematical nature of the formal methods and the lack of tool support. It is highly desirable to have software models and their related software artefacts systematically connected and used collaboratively, rather than in isolation. The success of the Semantic Web, as the next generation of Web technology, can have profound impact on the environment for formal software development. It allows both the software engineers and machines to understand the content of formal models and supports more effective software design in terms of understanding, sharing and reusing in a distributed manner. To realise the full potential of the Semantic Web in formal software development, effectively creating proper semantic metadata for formal software models and their related software artefacts is crucial. This paper proposed a framework that allows users to interconnect the knowledge about formal software models and other related documents using the semantic technology. We first propose a methodology with tool support is proposed to automatically derive ontological metadata from formal software models and semantically describe them. We then develop a Semantic Web environment for representing and sharing formal Z/OZ models. A method with prototype tool is presented to enhance semantic query to software models and other artefacts. © 2014.

Reliability for Beta Models

In the area of stress-strength models there has been a large amount of work as regards estimation of the reliability R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) when X1 and X2 are independent random variables belonging to the same univariate family of distributions. The algebraic form for R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) has been worked out for the majority of the well-known distributions including Normal, uniform, exponential, gamma, weibull and pareto. However, there are still many other distributions for which the form of R is not known. We have identified at least some 30 distributions with no known form for R. In this paper we consider some of these distributions and derive the corresponding forms for the reliability R. The calculations involve the use of various special functions.