Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

Long-term dynamic patterns and diversity of phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic river (the case of River Danube, Hungary)

In this paper we present the composition, seasonal dynamics and fluctuations in diversity of the phytoplankton in the Danube River over 24 years. Weekly samplings were conducted at one section of the river at Göd, in the 1669 river kilometer segment. The change in the phytoplankton community structure was analyzed in relation of water temperature and discharge means. Our findings support the opinion that the Danube is very rich in species, although many of the species are rare and could be described only as coloring species. Results indicate trends in the phytoplankton abundance, which are only detectable in long-term studies. By the help of diversity indices we have observed an increase in the phytoplankton community diversity. With the relevant information, an explanation of the significant changes in diversity and richness was formed. Our goals were a construction of a solid database of the phytoplankton, examining the seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton through a 24 year long study and to see the most important changing factors of the community. The results of this study are to assist and help future model developments to predict the phytoplankton seasonal dynamic patterns.

Composition of zooplankton assemblages along the Zagyva River

The species composition, longitudinal distribution and seasonal dynamics of zooplankton were studied in the Zagyva River, Hungary. A total of 108 taxa was recorded from which 61 were new for the river. Rotatoria was the most abundant group, microcrustaceans were less important, only nauplii and copepodites were represented in similar individual numbers. Frequent species included Anuraeopsis fissa, Pompholyx spp., Keratella cochlearis, Brachionus angularis, Bdelloida sp., Bosmina longirostris. Dominance of cosmopolitan species was observed both in the river and its reservoir, and species characteristic of eutrophic waters were of major importance in the latter. There was a downstream decrease in zooplankton densities, which was explained by modified conditions. The relatively large number of individuals in autumn months, and the characteristic large number of individuals in the upper section contrasted general findings of potamoplankton dynamics. On the basis of the species abundance matrix, three river sections can be distinguished (upper, middle, lower section). Due to waste water discharges - received from the Tarján Stream - we found extremely high number of individuals and the lowest diversity at the sampling site Nagybátony (148 rkm).

Crustacean plankton abundance in the Danube River and in its side arms in Hungary

The spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics of the crustacean zooplankton were studied in the Danube River and in its side arms near Budapest, Hungary. Microcrustaceans were sampled biweekly from October 2006 to November 2007 at eleven sites. Thermocyclops crassus, Moina micrura and Bosmina longirostris added up to 57.6% of the total density. Comparisons of the different water bodies stressed the separation of the eupotamal and parapotamal side arms. Densities in the side arms were one respectively two orders of magnitude higher as compared to the main channel, which was relatively poor in plankton. There were remarkable longitudinal and transversal variations in the abundance of the major zooplankton groups (cladocerans, adult copepods, copepodites, nauplii) and dominant species (t-test, P < 0.05). However, no general pattern was observed, the spatial distribution depended on the examined objects. There were statistically significant seasonal differences in zooplankton abundance (Tukey-test, P < 0.05). Water residence time and water discharge were not found to be related to zooplankton abundance, but water temperature was positively correlated with microcrustacean density.

Effect of sampling effort and sampling frequency on the composition of the planktonic crustacean assemblage: a case study of the river Danube

Although numerous studies have focused on the seasonal dynamics of riverine zooplankton, little is known about its short-term variation. In order to examine the effects of sampling frequency and sampling effort, microcrustacean samples were collected at daily intervals between 13 June and 21 July of 2007 in a parapotamal side arm of the river Danube, Hungary. Samples were also taken at biweekly intervals from November 2006 to May 2008. After presenting the community dynamics, the effect of sampling effort was evaluated with two different methods; the minimal sample size was also estimated. We introduced a single index (potential dynamic information loss; to determine the potential loss of information when sampling frequency is reduced. The formula was calculated for the total abundance, densities of the dominant taxa, adult/larva ratios of copepods and for two different diversity measures. Results suggest that abundances may experience notable fluctuations even within 1 week, as do diversities and adult/larva ratios.

Inter-seasonal population dynamics and pest status of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B in an Australian cropping system

Bemisia tabaci, biotype B, commonly known as the silverleaf whitefly (SLW) is an alien species that invaded Australia in the mid-90s. This paper reports on the invasion ecology of SLW and the factors that are likely to have contributed to the first outbreak of this major pest in an Australian cotton cropping system, population dynamics of SLW within whitefly-susceptible crop (cotton and cucurbit) and non-crop vegetation (sowthistle, Sonchus spp.) components of the cropping system were investigated over four consecutive growing seasons (September-June) 2001/02-2004/05 in the Emerald Irrigation Area (EIA) of Queensland, Australia. Based on fixed geo-referenced sampling sites, variation in spatial and temporal abundance of SLW within each system component was quantified to provide baseline data for the development of ecologically sustainable pest management strategies. Parasitism of large (3rd and 4th instars) SLW nymphs by native aphelinid wasps was quantified to determine the potential for natural control of SLW populations. Following the initial outbreak in 2001/02, SLW abundance declined and stabilised over the next three seasons. The population dynamics of SLW is characterised by inter-seasonal population cycling between the non-crop (weed) and cotton components of the EIA cropping system. Cotton was the largest sink for and source of SLW during the study period. Over-wintering populations dispersed from weed host plant sources to cotton in spring followed by a reverse dispersal in late summer and autumn to broad-leaved crops and weeds. A basic spatial source-sink analysis showed that SLW adult and nymph densities were higher in cotton fields that were closer to over-wintering weed sources throughout spring than in fields that were further away. Cucurbit fields were not significant sources of SLW and did not appear to contribute significantly to the regional population dynamics of the pest. Substantial parasitism of nymphal stages throughout the study period indicates that native parasitoid species and other natural enemies are important sources of SLW mortality in Australian cotton production systems. Weather conditions and use of broad-spectrum insecticides for pest control are implicated in the initial outbreak and on-going pest status of SLW in the region.

Nutrient dynamics of seasonal tanks in the dry zone of Sri Lanka in relation to their hydrological regimes

Village tanks are put to a wide range of uses by the rural communities that depend on them for their survival. As the primacy of irrigation has decreased under these tanks due to a variety of climatic and economic reasons there is a need to reevaluate their use for other productive functions. The research presented in this paper is part of a programme investigating the potential to improve the management of living aquatic resources in order to bring benefits to the most marginal groups identified in upper watershed areas. Based on an improved typology of seasonal tanks, the seasonal changes and dynamics of various water quality parameters indicative of nutrient status and fisheries carrying capacity are compared over a period of one year. Indicators of Net (Primary) Productivity (NP): Rates of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) change, Total Suspended Solids (TSS): Total Suspended Volatile solids (TVSS) ratios are the parameters of principle interest. Based on these results a comparative analysis is made on two classes of ‘seasonal’ and ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Results indicate a broad correlation in each of these parameters with seasonal trends in tank hydrology. Highest productivity levels are associated with periods of declining water storage, whilst the lowest levels are associated with the periods of maximum water storage shortly after the NW monsoon. This variation is primarily attributed to dilution effects associated with depth and storage area. During the yala period, encroachment of the surface layer by several species of aquatic macrophyte also has progressively negative impacts on productivity. The most seasonal tanks show wider extremes in seasonal nutrient dynamics, overall, with less favourable conditions than the ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Never the less all the tanks can be considered as being highly productive with NP levels comparable to fertilised pond systems for much of the year. This indicates that nutrient status is not likely to be amongst the most important constraints to enhancing fish production. Other potential management improvements based on these results are discussed. [PDF contains 19 pages]

Seasonal population dynamics of parasitic copepods, Sinergasilus spp. on farmed fish in China

Seasonal population dynamics of parasitic copepods in the genus Sinergasilus on fanned silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, farmed bighead carp Aristichthys nobilis, and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idellus were investigated in China. Changes in prevalence and abundance were seasonal with higher levels observed in summer. Reproduction of the copepods occurs from spring to early autumn as indicated by the higher ratio of gravid copepods. The frequency distribution of Sinergasilus polycolpus and S. major in their host populations can be fitted well with negative binomial distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Defining seasonal marine microbial community dynamics

Here we describe, the longest microbial time-series analyzed to date using high-resolution 16S rRNA tag pyrosequencing of samples taken monthly over 6 years at a temperate marine coastal site off Plymouth, UK. Data treatment effected the estimation of community richness over a 6-year period, whereby 8794 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified using single-linkage preclustering and 21 130 OTUs were identified by denoising the data. The Alphaproteobacteria were the most abundant Class, and the most frequently recorded OTUs were members of the Rickettsiales (SAR 11) and Rhodobacteriales. This near-surface ocean bacterial community showed strong repeatable seasonal patterns, which were defined by winter peaks in diversity across all years. Environmental variables explained far more variation in seasonally predictable bacteria than did data on protists or metazoan biomass. Change in day length alone explains >65% of the variance in community diversity. The results suggested that seasonal changes in environmental variables are more important than trophic interactions. Interestingly, microbial association network analysis showed that correlations in abundance were stronger within bacterial taxa rather than between bacteria and eukaryotes, or between bacteria and environmental variables.