The role of Qiongzhou Strait in the seasonal variation of the South China Sea circulation

An analysis of the water level and current data taken in Qiongzhou Strait in the South China Sea (SCS) over the last 37 years (1963 to 1999) was made to examine the characteristics of tidal waves and residual flow through the strait and their roles in the seasonal variation of the SCS circulation. The observations reveal that Qiongzhou Strait is an area where opposing tidal waves interact and a source of water transport to the Gulf of Beibu (Gulf of Tonkin), SCS. A year-round westward mean flow with a maximum speed of 10-40 cm s(-1) is found in Qiongzhou Strait. This accounts for water transport of 0.2-0.4 Sv and 0.1-0.2 Sv into the Gulf of Beibu in winter-spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The outflow from Qiongzhou Strait may cause up to 44% of the gulf water to be refreshed each season, suggesting that it has a significant impact on the seasonal circulation in the Gulf of Beibu. This finding is in contrast to our current understanding that the seasonal circulation patterns in the South China Sea are primarily driven by seasonal winds. Several numerical experiments were conducted to examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the formation of the westward mean flow in Qiongzhou Strait. The model provides a reasonable simulation of semidiurnal and diurnal tidal waves in the strait and the predicted residual flow generally agrees with the observed mean flow. An analysis of the momentum equations indicates that the strong westward flow is driven mainly by tidal rectification over variable bottom topography. Both observations and modeling suggest that the coastal physical processes associated with tidal rectification and buoyancy input must be taken into account when the mass balance of the SCS circulation is investigated, especially for the regional circulation in the Gulf of Beibu.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

Rifting process and formation mechanisms of syn-rift stage prolongation in the deepwater basin, northern South China Sea

Based on the latest seismic and geological data, tectonic subsidence of three seismic lines in the deepwater area of Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB), the northern South China Sea (SCS), is calculated. The result shows that the rifting process of study area is different from the typical passive continental margin basin. Although the seafloor spreading of SCS initiated at 32 Ma, the tectonic subsidence rate does not decrease but increases instead, and then decreases at about 23 Ma, which indicates that the rifting continued after the onset of seafloor spreading until about 23 Ma. The formation thickness exhibits the same phenomenon, that is the syn-rift stage prolonged and the post-rift thermal subsidence delayed. The formation mechanisms are supposed to be three: (1) the lithospheric rigidity of the northern SCS is weak and its ductility is relatively strong, which delayed the strain relaxation resulting from the seafloor spreading; (2) the differential layered independent extension of the lithosphere may be one reason for the delay of post-rift stage; and (3) the southward transition of SCS spreading ridge during 24 to 21 Ma and the corresponding acceleration of seafloor spreading rate then triggered the initiation of large-scale thermal subsidence in the study area at about 23 Ma.

Characteristics of nonlinear internal waves observed in the northern South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most active areas of internal waves. We undertook a program of physical oceanography in the northern South China Sea from June to July of 2009, and conducted a 1-day observation from 15:40 of June 24 to 16:40 of June 25 using a chain of instruments, including temperature sensors, pressure sensors and temperature-pressure meters at a site (117.5A degrees E, 21A degrees N) northeast of the Dongsha Islands. We measured fluctuating tidal and subtidal properties with the thermistor-chain and a ship-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, and observed a large-amplitude nonlinear internal wave passing the site followed by a number of small ones. To further investigate this phenomenon, we collected the tidal constituents from the TPXO7.1 dataset to evaluate the tidal characteristics at and around the recording site, from which we knew that the amplitude of the nonlinear internal wave was about 120 m and the period about 20 min. The horizontal and vertical velocities induced by the soliton were approximately 2 m/s and 0.5 m/s, respectively. This soliton occurred 2-3 days after a spring tide.

Comparison of nonlinear and linear PCA on surface wind, surface height, and SST in the South China Sea

We compared nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) with linear principal component analysis (LPCA) with the data of sea surface wind anomalies (SWA), surface height anomalies (SSHA), and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), taken in the South China Sea (SCS) between 1993 and 2003. The SCS monthly data for SWA, SSHA and SSTA (i.e., the anomalies with climatological seasonal cycle removed) were pre-filtered by LPCA, with only three leading modes retained. The first three modes of SWA, SSHA, and SSTA of LPCA explained 86%, 71%, and 94% of the total variance in the original data, respectively. Thus, the three associated time coefficient functions (TCFs) were used as the input data for NLPCA network. The NLPCA was made based on feed-forward neural network models. Compared with classical linear PCA, the first NLPCA mode could explain more variance than linear PCA for the above data. The nonlinearity of SWA and SSHA were stronger in most areas of the SCS. The first mode of the NLPCA on the SWA and SSHA accounted for 67.26% of the variance versus 54.7%, and 60.24% versus 50.43%, respectively for the first LPCA mode. Conversely, the nonlinear SSTA, localized in the northern SCS and southern continental shelf region, resulted in little improvement in the explanation of the variance for the first NLPCA.

Factors influencing the climatological mixed layer depth in the South China Sea: numerical simulations

The mixed layer depth (MLD) in the upper ocean is an important physical parameter for describing the upper ocean mixed layer. We analyzed several major factors influencing the climatological mixed layer depth (CMLD), and established a numerical simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) using the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with a high-resolution (1/12A degrees x1/12A degrees) grid nesting method and 50 vertical layers. Several ideal numerical experiments were tested by modifying the existing sea surface boundary conditions. Especially, we analyzed the sensitivity of the results simulated for the CMLD with factors of sea surface wind stress (SSWS), sea surface net heat flux (SSNHF), and the difference between evaporation and precipitation (DEP). The result shows that of the three factors that change the depth of the CMLD, SSWS is in the first place, when ignoring the impact of SSWS, CMLD will change by 26% on average, and its effect is always to deepen the CMLD; the next comes SSNHF (13%) for deepening the CMLD in October to January and shallowing the CMLD in February to September; and the DEP comes in the third (only 2%). Moreover, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of CMLD and compared the simulation result with the ARGO observational data. The results indicate that ROMS is applicable for studying CMLD in the SCS area.

Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

Highly nonlinear internal solitary waves over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea

Large amplitude internal solitary waves (ISWs) often exhibit highly nonlinear effects and may contribute significantly to mixing and energy transporting in the ocean. We observed highly nonlinear ISWs over the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea (19A degrees 35'N, 112A degrees E) in May 2005 during the Wenchang Internal Wave Experiment using in-situ time series data from an array of temperature and salinity sensors, and an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). We summarized the characteristics of the ISWs and compared them with those of existing internal wave theories. Particular attention has been paid to characterizing solitons in terms of the relationship between shape and amplitude-width. Comparison between theoretical prediction and observation results shows that the high nonlinearity of these waves is better represented by the second-order extended Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) theory than the first-order KdV model. These results indicate that the northwestern South China Sea (SCS) is rich in highly nonlinear ISWs that are an indispensable part of the energy budget of the internal waves in the northern South China Sea.

Observations of Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea

To discuss the intrusion of the Kuroshio into the SCS, we examined the mixing between the North Pacific and South China Sea (SCS) waters based on in-situ CTD data collected in August and September 2008 and the moored ADCP data taken from mid September 2008 to early July 2009. The CTD survey included four meridional sections from 119A degrees E to 122A degrees E around the Luzon Strait, during which pressure, temperature, and salinity were measured. The CTD data show that the isopycnal surface tilted from the SCS to the North Pacific; and it was steeper in the lower layers than in the upper ones. Meanwhile, we found strong vertical mixing taken place in the areas near 121A degrees E. The Kuroshio in high temperature and salinity intruded westward through Luzon Strait. The frequency of buoyancy was one order of magnitude greater than that of the common ones in the ocean, suggesting stronger stratification in the northeastern SCS. On the other hand, the long-term ADCP data show that before late October 2008, the direction of water flow in the SCS was eastward, and from November 2008 to late February 2009, it turned northwestward in the layers shallower than 150 m, while remained unchanged in deep layers from 200 to 450 m. From March to June 2009, the direction shifted with increasing depth from northward to southward, akin to the Ekman spiral. EOF analysis of the current time series revealed dominant empirical modes: the first mode corresponded to the mean current and showed that the Kuroshio intrusion occurred in the upper layers only from late December to early March. The temporal coefficient of the first and the second mode indicated clearly a dominant signal in a quasi-seasonal cycle.

Vertical structure and evolution of the Luzon Warm Eddy

Eddies are frequently observed in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS). However, there have been few studies on vertical structure and temporal-spatial evolution of these eddies. We analyzed the seasonal Luzon Warm Eddy (LWE) based on Argo float data and the merged data products of satellite altimeters of Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 and European Research Satellites. The analysis shows that the LWE extends vertically to more than 500 m water depth, with a higher temperature anomaly of 5A degrees C and lower salinity anomaly of 0.5 near the thermocline. The current speeds of the LWE are stronger in its uppermost 200 m, with a maximum speed of 0.6 m/s. Sometimes the LWE incorporates mixed waters from the Kuroshio Current and the SCS, and thus has higher thermohaline characteristics than local marine waters. Time series of eddy kinematic parameters show that the radii and shape of the LWE vary during propagation, and its eddy kinetic energy follows a normal distribution. In addition, we used the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) here to analyze seasonal characteristics of the LWE. The results suggest that the LWE generally forms in July, intensifies in August and September, separates from the coast of Luzon in October and propagates westward, and weakens in December and disappears in February. The LWE's westward migration is approximately along 19A degrees N latitude from northwest of Luzon to southeast of Hainan, with a mean speed of 6.6 cm/s.

A study of internal solitary waves observed on the continental shelf in the northwestern South China Sea

Based on in-situ time series data from the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and thermistor chain in Wenchang area, a sequence of internal solitary wave (ISW) packets was observed in September 2005, propagating northwest on the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea (SCS). Corresponding to different stratification of the water column and tidal condition, both elevation and depression ISWs were observed at the same mooring location with amplitude of 35 m and 25 m respectively in different days. Regular arrival of the remarkable ISW packets at approximately the diurnal tidal period and the dominance of diurnal internal waves in the study area, strongly suggest that the main energy source of the waves is the diurnal tide. Notice that the wave packets were all riding on the troughs and shoulders of the internal tides, they were probably generated locally from the shelf break by the evolution of the internal tides due to nonlinear and dispersive effects.

刺参急性口围肿胀病和皱纹盘鲍肌肉萎缩症的病理学研究

本论文以大连沿海养殖刺参劾皱纹盘鲍为研究对象，利用组织学、超微病理学、病理生理学的方法，开展了患病病理学研究，并对可能诱发刺参和皱纹盘鲍病害的原因，以及病变过程进行了初步探讨。 中国北方养殖刺参[Apostichopus japonicus (Selenka)]幼参和成参的急性口围肿胀病。急性口围肿胀病是爆发于中国北方辽宁省和山东省沿岸养殖刺参群体中的一种新发现的疾病，并且从2004年开始已经引起刺参的大面积死亡现象，经济损失重大。 本文报道在养殖患病刺参的肠上皮细胞内发现大量的病毒样颗粒。这是首次报道病毒样粒子感染刺参。组织学检查表明该病毒具有包涵体结构，寄生于肠上皮细胞中。电镜检查的结果表明，该病毒粒子呈球形，直径80-100纳米，螺旋状核衣壳，具有囊膜结构且囊膜表面具有纤突结构。 进一步的形态学和病理学分析发现该病毒具有许多报道的关于冠状病毒的特征。细胞质内的 病毒颗粒大部分以团聚方式存在于一个完整的包膜内，形成典型的病毒包涵体结构。最明显的细胞病理学特征是细胞质内大面积的粒状物质的存在，该区域相对缺少相应的细胞器。在病毒包涵体内的管状结构，核衣壳包涵体以及双层膜囊泡也在病变细胞内发现。 在病参体内未发现立克次氏体，衣原体，细菌以及其他寄生生物。 中国北方养殖皱纹盘鲍(Haliotis discus hannai)的肌肉萎缩症病理研究 。 在2004年和2005年的中国北方海区，养殖皱纹盘鲍幼体和成体群体中爆发了严重的肌肉萎缩症。肌电图监测显示病鲍的肌肉萎缩是肌源性的而不是神经源性的。 与正常对照组对比结果显示，病鲍的肌纤维数量和肌纤维直径都显著降低。 肌酶谱测定结果显示，病鲍血清中的肌酸激酶水平，肌酸激酶—肌同工酶水平和乳酸脱氢酶水平，与正常血清对比，呈显著升高状态，说明病鲍体内发生了肌细胞损伤。超薄切片电镜检测结果显示在发生病变的肌细胞内存在双螺旋丝状结构的包涵体（Paired helical filaments, PHFs）, 该结构是人类患包涵体肌炎的主要的病理特征。 本文首次报道在无脊椎动物中发现双螺旋丝包涵体结构。 对损伤的肌纤维的进一步研究发现了异常增生的小圆柱体结构（Small Cylinder Structure, SCS）和致密小体(Dense colored particles, DCP),同时观察到这两种异常结构与肌纤维的损伤直接相关。本文还对该病的感染机制作了探讨。 中国北方皱纹盘鲍(Haliotis discus hannai)肌肉萎缩的病理生理研究。严重的足肌肉萎缩症是鲍的一种慢性致死性疾病。在中国北方的养殖皱纹盘鲍群体中第一次发现是在2000年，随后在各养殖海区，自然海区及实验室养殖过程中都发现了该病的暴发。 超微结构电镜检测显示肌肉纤维损伤严重，其内的大部分肌原纤维断裂或消失。 大量的花瓣状的糖原颗粒聚集在断裂的肌原纤维中，还有一些被包裹在包膜内。 这说明在病鲍体内的糖原代谢处于被抑制状态（或停止状态），随后的血清学检测表明病鲍血清中的葡萄糖含量与正常对照的含量显著降低，也证明了糖代谢途径的终止。病鲍血清中胆固醇和甘油三酯的量显著降低，伴随着高密度脂蛋白的水平显著升高，说明脂肪代谢途径的亢进状态。病鲍血清中的二氧化碳水平的显著降低说明出现了酸碱平衡紊乱，通过病因学分析可知该酸碱平衡紊乱应属于代谢性酸中毒。病鲍血清中的钠离子和钾离子浓度显著升高，无机磷和镁离子浓度显著降低说明出现了患病皱纹盘鲍体内出现了电解质紊乱。病鲍血清中蛋白质含量的检测表明患病皱纹盘鲍已出现低蛋白血症，说明病鲍出现了严重的营养不良。病鲍血清中的尿酸含量，胆碱酯酶水平和γ-转肽酶水平与正常对照组相比显著降低。各项指标检测的结果说明糖代谢途径的终止造成了病鲍一系列的调节体系的不平衡和各种生理功能的紊乱，甚至造成了鲍的最终死亡。

南海北部陆缘深水区构造演化及其资源效应

南海北部陆缘深水区（水深>300m）蕴藏着丰富的资源，我国对深水区的地质研究刚刚起步，但相关领域已成为科研热点。深水油气盆地的构造演化是油气勘探中最重要的基础性研究之一，因此针对我国南海北部陆缘深水区开展构造演化及其资源效应的研究具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。 本文利用钻井和地震资料并结合区域地质资料，重点研究了珠江口盆地深水区的结构和构造演化，取得如下创新性成果：1）首次利用半地堑分析方法系统解剖了研究区的结构、各构造单元发育特征，在此基础上指出五个有利油气运聚带；2）采用回剥法并利用最新资料进行校正，得到了研究区更为可靠的构造沉降曲线，重新划分了裂陷期和裂后期的分界，认为32Ma南海海底扩张之后裂陷作用仍在持续，直到23Ma左右才开始大规模裂后热沉降，并进一步解释了裂陷期延迟的形成机制；3）应用非连续拉张模型计算拉张系数的方程计算了研究区的壳幔拉张系数，指出了深水区地幔相对于地壳的优势伸展作用；首次运用平衡剖面技术重建了研究区的构造发育史，计算了各构造期的拉张率和沉积速率，指出研究区新生代整体呈现持续拉张，拉张系数在1.1-1.24之间；4）精细刻画了水合物钻采区的地质构造特征，建立了该区天然气水合物成藏的概念模式；建立了一套根据地震叠加速度计算流体势的方法，为水合物成藏规律的研究提供了新的思路。

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。