Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) scoping study: Annex 3 - Early warning system and risk assessment case studies

This report provides case studies of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) and risk assessments encompassing three main hazard types: drought; flood and cyclone. The case studies are taken from ten countries across three continents (focusing on Africa, South Asia and the Caribbean). The case studies have been developed to assist the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to prioritise areas for Early Warning System (EWS) related research under their ‘Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience’ (SHEAR) programme. The aim of these case studies is to ensure that DFID SHEAR research is informed by the views of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and communities engaged with Early Warning Systems and risk assessments (including community-based Early Warning Systems). The case studies highlight a number of challenges facing Early Warning Systems (EWSs). These challenges relate to financing; integration; responsibilities; community interpretation; politics; dissemination; accuracy; capacity and focus. The case studies summarise a number of priority areas for EWS related research: • Priority 1: Contextualising and localising early warning information • Priority 2: Climate proofing current EWSs • Priority 3: How best to sustain effective EWSs between hazard events? • Priority 4: Optimising the dissemination of risk and warning information • Priority 5: Governance and financing of EWSs • Priority 6: How to support EWSs under challenging circumstances • Priority 7: Improving EWSs through monitoring and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of those systems

Immune regulatory effect of pHSP65 DNA therapy in pulmonary tuberculosis: activation of CD8(+) cells, interferon-gamma recovery and reduction of lung injury

A DNA vaccine based on the heat-shock protein 65 Mycobacterium leprae gene (pHSP65) presented a prophylactic and therapeutic effect in an experimental model of tuberculosis. In this paper, we addressed the question of which protective mechanisms are activated in Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected mice after immune therapy with pHSP65. We evaluated activation of the cellular immune response in the lungs of infected mice 30 days after infection (initiation of immune therapy) and in those of uninfected mice. After 70 days (end of immune therapy), the immune responses of infected untreated mice, infected pHSP65-treated mice and infected pCDNA3-treated mice were also evaluated. Our results show that the most significant effect of pHSP65 was the stimulation of CD8(+) lung cell activation, interferon-gamma recovery and reduction of lung injury. There was also partial restoration of the production of tumour necrosis factor-alpha. Treatment with pcDNA3 vector also induced an immune stimulatory effect. However, only infected pHSP65-treated mice were able to produce significant levels of interferon-gamma and to restrict the growth of bacilli.

Immune regulatory effect of pHSP65 DNA therapy in pulmonary tuberculosis: Activation of CD8+ cells, interferon-γ recovery and reduction of lung injury

A DNA vaccine based on the heat-shock protein 65 Mycobacterium leprae gene (pHSP65) presented a prophylactic and therapeutic effect in an experimental model of tuberculosis. In this paper, we addressed the question of which protective mechanisms are activated in Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected mice after immune therapy with pHSP65. We evaluated activation of the cellular immune response in the lungs of infected mice 30 days after infection (initiation of immune therapy) and in those of uninfected mice. After 70 days (end of immune therapy), the immune responses of infected untreated mice, infected pHSP65-treated mice and infected pCDNA3-treated mice were also evaluated. Our results show that the most significant effect of pHSP65 was the stimulation of CD8+ lung cell activation, interferon-γ recovery and reduction of lung injury. There was also partial restoration of the production of tumour necrosis factor-α. Treatment with pcDNA3 vector also induced an immune stimulatory effect. However, only infected pHSP65-treated mice were able to produce significant levels of interferon-γ and to restrict the growth of bacilli.

Motor Recovery and Synaptic Preservation after Ventral Root Avulsion and Repair with a Fibrin Sealant Derived from Snake Venom

Background:Ventral root avulsion is an experimental model of proximal axonal injury at the central/peripheral nervous system interface that results in paralysis and poor clinical outcome after restorative surgery. Root reimplantation may decrease neuronal degeneration in such cases. We describe the use of a snake venom-derived fibrin sealant during surgical reconnection of avulsed roots at the spinal cord surface. The present work investigates the effects of this fibrin sealant on functional recovery, neuronal survival, synaptic plasticity, and glial reaction in the spinal motoneuron microenvironment after ventral root reimplantation.Methodology/Principal Findings:Female Lewis rats (7 weeks old) were subjected to VRA and root replantation. The animals were divided into two groups: 1) avulsion only and 2) replanted roots with fibrin sealant derived from snake venom. Post-surgical motor performance was evaluated using the CatWalk system twice a week for 12 weeks. The rats were sacrificed 12 weeks after surgery, and their lumbar intumescences were processed for motoneuron counting and immunohistochemistry (GFAP, Iba-1 and synaptophysin antisera). Array based qRT-PCR was used to evaluate gene regulation of several neurotrophic factors and receptors as well as inflammatory related molecules. The results indicated that the root reimplantation with fibrin sealant enhanced motor recovery, preserved the synaptic covering of the motoneurons and improved neuronal survival. The replanted group did not show significant changes in microglial response compared to VRA-only. However, the astroglial reaction was significantly reduced in this group.Conclusions/Significance:In conclusion, the present data suggest that the repair of avulsed roots with snake venom fibrin glue at the exact point of detachment results in neuroprotection and preservation of the synaptic network at the microenvironment of the lesioned motoneurons. Also such procedure reduced the astroglial reaction and increased mRNA levels to neurotrophins and anti-inflammatory cytokines that may in turn, contribute to improving recovery of motor function. © 2013 Barbizan et al.

Assessment of the reproductive parameters, laparoscopic oocyte recovery and the first embryos produced in vitro from endangered Caninde goats (Capra hircus)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Age of No-Till System and Nitrogen Management on Common Bean Nutrition and Yield

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk of Disease from Wildlife Reservoirs: Badgers, Cattle, and Bovine Tuberculosis

Livestock face complex foraging options associated with optimizing nutrient intake while being able to avoid areas posing risk of parasites or disease. Areas of tall nutrient-rich swards around fecal deposits may be attractive for grazing, but might incur fitness costs from parasites. We use the example of dairy cattle and the risks of tuberculosis transmission posed to them by pastures contaminated with badger excreta to examine this trade-off. A risk may be posed either by aerosolized inhalation through investigation or by ingestion via grazing contaminated swards. We quantified the levels of investigation and grazing of 150 dairy cows at badger latrines (accumulations of feces and urine) and crossing points (urination-only sites). Grazing behavior was compared between strip-grazed and rotation-grazed fields. Strip grazing had fields subdivided for grazing periods of <24 h, whereas rotational grazing involved access to whole fields for 1 to 7 d each. A higher proportion of the herd investigated badger latrines than crossing points or controls. Cattle initially avoided swards around badger latrines but not around crossing points. Avoidance periods were shorter in strip- compared with rotation-grazing systems. In rotation-grazing management, latrines were avoided for longer times, but there were more investigative contacts than with strip-grazing management. If investigation is a major route of tuberculosis transmission, the risk to cattle is greatest in extensive rotation-grazing systems. However, if ingestion of fresh urine is the primary method of transmission, strip-grazing management may pose a greater threat. Farming systems affect the level and type of contact between livestock and wildlife excreta and thus the risks of disease.

Sexual Risk Recognition Deficits: The Role of Prior Victimization and Emotion Dysregulation

Recent theoretical writings suggest that the ineffective regulation of negative emotional states may reduce the ability of women to detect and respond effectively to situational and interpersonal factors that increase risk for sexual assault. However, little empirical research has explored this hypothesis. In the present study, it was hypothesized that prior sexual victimization and negative mood state would each independently predict poor risk recognition and less effective defensive actions in response to an analogue sexual assault vignette. Further, these variables were expected to interact to produce particularly impaired risk responses. Finally, that the in vivo emotion regulation strategy of suppression and corresponding cognitive resource usage (operationalized as memory impairment for the vignette) were hypothesized to mediate these associations. Participants were 668 female undergraduate students who were randomly assigned to receive a negative or neutral film mood induction followed by an audiotaped dating interaction during which they were instructed to indicate when the man had “gone too far” and describe an adaptive response to the situation. Approximately 33.5% of the sample reported a single victimization and 10% reported revictimization. Hypotheses were largely unsupported as sexual victimization history, mood condition, and their interaction did not impact risk recognition or adaptive responding. However, in vivo emotional suppression and cognitive resource usage were shown to predict delayed risk recognition only. Findings suggest that contrary to hypotheses, negative mood (as induced here) may not relate to risk recognition and response impairments. However, it may be important for victimization prevention programs that focus on risk perception to address possible underlying issues with emotional suppression and limited cognitive resources to improve risk perception abilities. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Motor recovery and synaptic preservation after ventral root avulsion and repair with a fibrin sealant derived from snake venom

Background: Ventral root avulsion is an experimental model of proximal axonal injury at the central/peripheral nervous system interface that results in paralysis and poor clinical outcome after restorative surgery. Root reimplantation may decrease neuronal degeneration in such cases. We describe the use of a snake venom-derived fibrin sealant during surgical reconnection of avulsed roots at the spinal cord surface. The present work investigates the effects of this fibrin sealant on functional recovery, neuronal survival, synaptic plasticity, and glial reaction in the spinal motoneuron microenvironment after ventral root reimplantation. Methodology/Principal Findings: Female Lewis rats (7 weeks old) were subjected to VRA and root replantation. The animals were divided into two groups: 1) avulsion only and 2) replanted roots with fibrin sealant derived from snake venom. Post-surgical motor performance was evaluated using the CatWalk system twice a week for 12 weeks. The rats were sacrificed 12 weeks after surgery, and their lumbar intumescences were processed for motoneuron counting and immunohistochemistry (GFAP, Iba-1 and synaptophysin antisera). Array based qRT-PCR was used to evaluate gene regulation of several neurotrophic factors and receptors as well as inflammatory related molecules. The results indicated that the root reimplantation with fibrin sealant enhanced motor recovery, preserved the synaptic covering of the motoneurons and improved neuronal survival. The replanted group did not show significant changes in microglial response compared to VRA-only. However, the astroglial reaction was significantly reduced in this group. Conclusions/Significance: In conclusion, the present data suggest that the repair of avulsed roots with snake venom fibrin glue at the exact point of detachment results in neuroprotection and preservation of the synaptic network at the microenvironment of the lesioned motoneurons. Also such procedure reduced the astroglial reaction and increased mRNA levels to neurotrophins and anti-inflammatory cytokines that may in turn, contribute to improving recovery of motor function.

On land management: landowners' attitudes to land and farming in Valdera, Tuscany

This thesis aims at explaining the intersecting dynamics of structural changes in agriculture and urbanisation, which involves changes in urban-rural relationships. The research questions are: how and why do landowners differ in their attitudes to land and farming? what are the main implications on rural landscapes and the policy implications? Relationships between urbanisation and agriculture are firstly analysed through a critical literature review; the analysis focuses on the 'landowner' as the key actor who actively takes decisions on the rural landscape From the empirical study – which is based on a Tuscan area (Valdera), and addressed through qualitative methods – a great diversity of landowners' attitudes to land and farming emerge, thus contributing to the agricultural restructuring, such as: 1) the emphasis on recreational function of the countryside for urban people 2) contracting out of land management, especially when landowners live or/and have 'urban' employment 3) the active role of hobby farmers in land management 4) agricultural operations simplification and lack of investments (especially in case of property rights expropriation). The thesis is framed in three papers, with the same methods and research questions. It seems evident that rural landscapes is subjected to functional changes (e.g. residential) and structural changes (landscape polarisation), which requires the need 1) to consider that rural landscape management is increasingly less connected to agricultural production as economic activity; 2) to give a coherence to the range of policy interventions (physical planning, landscape, sectoral).

Patterns of molecular response to and relapse after combination of sorafenib, idarubicin, and cytarabine in patients with FLT3 mutant acute myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND: FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) is a class III receptor tyrosine kinase involved in hematopoietic progenitor cell development. Mutations of FLT3 have been reported in about a third of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and inhibitors of FLT3 are of clinical interest. Sorafenib is an orally active multikinase inhibitor with potent activity against FLT3 and the Raf/ERK/MEK kinase pathway. METHODS: We studied the patterns of molecular response and relapse in 18 patients with mutated FLT3 treated with the combination of sorafenib, idarubicin, and cytarabine. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 9 months. Sixteen patients achieved complete remission (CR), and the other 2 patients achieved CR but lacked platelet recovery for an overall response rate of 100%. Ten patients had their FLT3-mutated clone eradicated, with 6 patients who showed some residual FLT3-mutated cells, and 2 patients who showed persistent FLT3-mutated cells. The elimination of FLT3-mutated population at the time of morphologic CR, however, was not predictive of relapse. After a median follow-up of 9 months (range, 1-16 months), 10 (55%) patients had relapsed, with a median CR duration of 8.8 months (range, 1-9.5 months). By DNA sequencing, there was no evidence of an acquired FLT3 point mutation at the time of relapse in 7 patients tested, which suggested the presence of other mechanisms of sorafenib resistance. CONCLUSION: Sorafenib, combined with chemotherapy, is effective in attaining CR, but relapses still occur.

The Molecular Crosstalk between the MET Receptor Tyrosine Kinase and the DNA Damage Response - Biological and Clinical Aspects

Radiation therapy remains an imperative treatment modality for numerous malignancies. Enduring significant technical achievements both on the levels of treatment planning and radiation delivery have led to improvements in local control of tumor growth and reduction in healthy tissue toxicity. Nevertheless, resistance mechanisms, which presumably also involve activation of DNA damage response signaling pathways that eventually may account for loco-regional relapse and consequent tumor progression, still remain a critical problem. Accumulating data suggest that signaling via growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, which are aberrantly expressed in many tumors, may interfere with the cytotoxic impact of ionizing radiation via the direct activation of the DNA damage response, leading eventually to so-called tumor radioresistance. The aim of this review is to overview the current known data that support a molecular crosstalk between the hepatocyte growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase MET and the DNA damage response. Apart of extending well established concepts over MET biology beyond its function as a growth factor receptor, these observations directly relate to the role of its aberrant activity in resistance to DNA damaging agents, such as ionizing radiation, which are routinely used in cancer therapy and advocate tumor sensitization towards DNA damaging agents in combination with MET targeting.

[Risk factors for the oral use of antibiotics and animal treatment incidence of weaners in Switzerland].

In the present study, risk factors for the use of oral antibiotics in weaned piglets were collected on 112 pig farms by a personal questionaire. The most common indication for an antibiotic group therapy was diarrhoea, and the most frequently used antibiotic was Colistin. On average, 27.33 daily doses in the control farms and 387.21 daily doses in the problem farms per 1000 weaners were administered on a given day. The significant risk factors in the multivariate model were poor hygiene in the water supply of suckling piglets, less than two doses ofprestarter feed daily, lack of an all-in-and-all-out production system in weaners, no herd book performance data analysis, and less than two of the legally prescribed veterinary visits per year. Furthermore, the treatment incidence of weaners for oral antibiotics was calculated on the basis of the drug inventory. This study provides evidence that the use of oral antibiotics in weaners can be reduced by interventions in hygiene and management.

Planning for Emotional Labor and Secondary Traumatic Stress in Child Welfare Organizations

This analysis provides an emergent framework that emphasizes a neglected component of both direct practice with families and organizational development. Human emotions, both beneficial (positive emotional labor) and harmful (negative emotional labor), have received short shrift in leadership development, supervision, direct practice preparation and supports, and workforce stabilization, and professionalization. Significantly, a key indicator of negative emotional labor—secondary traumatic stress (STS)—often has been ignored and neglected, despite the fact that it may be endemic in the workforce. STS typically results from traumatic events in practice, but it also stems from workplace violence. Often undetected and untreated, STS is at least a hidden correlate and perhaps a probable cause of myriad problems such as questionable practice with families, life-work conflicts, undesirable workforce turnover, and a sub-optimal organizational climate. Special interventions are needed. At the same time, new organizational designs are needed to promote and reinforce positive emotional labor. Arguably, positive emotional labor and the positive organizational climates it facilitates are requisites for harmonious relations between jobs and personal lives, desirable workforce retention, and better outcomes for children and families. What’s more, specialized interventions for positive emotional labor constitute a key component in the prevention system for STS. A dual design for positive emotional labor and STS (and other negative emotional labor) prevention/intervention is provided herewith. Early detection and rapid response systems for STS, with social work leadership, receive special attention. Guidelines for new organizational designs for emotional labor in child welfare are offered in conclusion.

Risk sharing with Multilateral Financial Institutions in infrastructure and energy project financing : effect on capital relief for commercial banks

(Matsukawa and Habeck, 2007) analyse the main instruments for risk mitigation in infrastructure financing with Multilateral Financial Institutions (MFIs). Their review coincided with the global financial crisis of 2007-08, and is highly relevant in current times considering the sovereign debt crisis, the lack of available capital and the increases in bank regulation in Western economies. The current macroeconomic environment has seen a slowdown in the level of finance for infrastructure projects, as they pose a higher credit risk given their requirements for long term investments. The rationale for this work is to look for innovative solutions that are focused on the credit risk mitigation of infrastructure and energy projects whilst optimizing the economic capital allocation for commercial banks. This objective is achieved through risk-sharing with MFIs and looking for capital relief in project finance transactions. This research finds out the answer to the main question: "What is the impact of risk-sharing with MFIs on project finance transactions to increase their efficiency and viability?", and is developed from the perspective of a commercial bank assessing the economic capital used and analysing the relevant variables for it: Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Recovery Rates, (Altman, 2010). An overview of project finance for the infrastructure and energy sectors in terms of the volume of transactions worldwide is outlined, along with a summary of risk-sharing financing with MFIs. A review of the current regulatory framework beneath risk-sharing in structured finance with MFIs is also analysed. From here, the impact of risk-sharing and the diversification effect in infrastructure and energy projects is assessed, from the perspective of economic capital allocation for a commercial bank. CreditMetrics (J. P. Morgan, 1997) is applied over an existing well diversified portfolio of project finance infrastructure and energy investments, working with the main risk capital measures: economic capital, RAROC, and EVA. The conclusions of this research show that economic capital allocation on a portfolio of project finance along with risk-sharing with MFIs have a huge impact on capital relief whilst increasing performance profitability for commercial banks. There is an outstanding diversification effect due to the portfolio, which is combined with risk mitigation and an improvement in recovery rates through Partial Credit Guarantees issued by MFIs. A stress test scenario analysis is applied to the current assumptions and credit risk model, considering a downgrade in the rating for the commercial bank (lender) and an increase of default in emerging countries, presenting a direct impact on economic capital, through an increase in expected loss and a decrease in performance profitability. Getting capital relief through risk-sharing makes it more viable for commercial banks to finance infrastructure and energy projects, with the beneficial effect of a direct impact of these investments on GDP growth and employment. The main contribution of this work is to promote a strategic economic capital allocation in infrastructure and energy financing through innovative risk-sharing with MFIs and economic pricing to create economic value added for banks, and to allow the financing of more infrastructure and energy projects. This work suggests several topics for further research in relation to issues analysed. (Matsukawa and Habeck, 2007) analizan los principales instrumentos de mitigación de riesgos en las Instituciones Financieras Multilaterales (IFMs) para la financiación de infraestructuras. Su presentación coincidió con el inicio de la crisis financiera en Agosto de 2007, y sus consecuencias persisten en la actualidad, destacando la deuda soberana en economías desarrolladas y los problemas capitalización de los bancos. Este entorno macroeconómico ha ralentizado la financiación de proyectos de infraestructuras. El actual trabajo de investigación tiene su motivación en la búsqueda de soluciones para la financiación de proyectos de infraestructuras y de energía, mitigando los riesgos inherentes, con el objeto de reducir el consumo de capital económico en los bancos financiadores. Este objetivo se alcanza compartiendo el riesgo de la financiación con IFMs, a través de estructuras de risk-sharing. La investigación responde la pregunta: "Cuál es el impacto de risk-sharing con IFMs, en la financiación de proyectos para aumentar su eficiencia y viabilidad?". El trabajo se desarrolla desde el enfoque de un banco comercial, estimando el consumo de capital económico en la financiación de proyectos y analizando las principales variables del riesgo de crédito, Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Recovery Rates, (Altman, 2010). La investigación presenta las cifras globales de Project Finance en los sectores de infraestructuras y de energía, y analiza el marco regulatorio internacional en relación al consumo de capital económico en la financiación de proyectos en los que participan IFMs. A continuación, el trabajo modeliza una cartera real, bien diversificada, de Project Finance de infraestructuras y de energía, aplicando la metodología CreditMet- rics (J. P. Morgan, 1997). Su objeto es estimar el consumo de capital económico y la rentabilidad de la cartera de proyectos a través del RAROC y EVA. La modelización permite estimar el efecto diversificación y la liberación de capital económico consecuencia del risk-sharing. Los resultados muestran el enorme impacto del efecto diversificación de la cartera, así como de las garantías parciales de las IFMs que mitigan riesgos, mejoran el recovery rate de los proyectos y reducen el consumo de capital económico para el banco comercial, mientras aumentan la rentabilidad, RAROC, y crean valor económico, EVA. En escenarios económicos de inestabilidad, empeoramiento del rating de los bancos, aumentos de default en los proyectos y de correlación en las carteras, hay un impacto directo en el capital económico y en la pérdida de rentabilidad. La liberación de capital económico, como se plantea en la presente investigación, permitirá financiar más proyectos de infraestructuras y de energía, lo que repercutirá en un mayor crecimiento económico y creación de empleo. La principal contribución de este trabajo es promover la gestión activa del capital económico en la financiación de infraestructuras y de proyectos energéticos, a través de estructuras innovadoras de risk-sharing con IFMs y de creación de valor económico en los bancos comerciales, lo que mejoraría su eficiencia y capitalización. La aportación metodológica del trabajo se convierte por su originalidad en una contribución, que sugiere y facilita nuevas líneas de investigación académica en las principales variables del riesgo de crédito que afectan al capital económico en la financiación de proyectos.