Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer : predicting which patients may benefit most

Background: Recent clinical studies have demonstrated an emerging subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. This disease appears to be a distinct clinical entity with patients presenting younger and with more advanced nodal disease, having lower tobacco and alcohol exposure and highly radiosensitive tumours. This means they are living longer, often with the debilitating functional side effects of treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine how virally mediated nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers respond to radiation therapy treatment. The aim was to determine risk categories and corresponding adaptive treatment management strategies to proactively manage these patients. Method/Results: 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer who received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent between 2005 and 2010 were studied. Relevant patient demographics including age, gender, diagnosis, TNM stage, pre-treatment nodal size and dose delivered was recorded. Each patient’s treatment plan was reviewed to determine if another computed tomography (re-CT) scan was performed and at what time point (dose/fraction) this occurred. The justification for this re-CT was determined using four categories: tumour and/or nodal regression, weight loss, both or other. Patients who underwent a re-CT were further investigated to determine whether a new plan was calculated. If a re-plan was performed, the dosimetric effect was quantified by comparing dose volume histograms of planning target volumes and critical structures from the actual treatment delivered and the original treatment plan. Preliminary results demonstrated that 25/121 (20.7%) patients required a re-CT and that these re-CTs were performed between fractions 20 to 25 of treatment. The justification for these re-CTs consisted of a combination of tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss. 16/25 (13.2%) patients had a replan calculated. 9 (7.4%) of these replans were implemented clinically due to the resultant dosimetric effect calculated. The data collected from this assessment was statistically analysed to identify the major determining factors for patients to undergo a re-CT and/or replan. Specific factors identified included nodal size and timing of the required intervention (i.e. how when a plan is to be adapted). This data was used to generate specific risk profiles that will form the basis of a biologically guided adaptive treatment management strategy for virally mediated head and neck cancer. Conclusion: Preliminary data indicates that virally mediated head and neck cancers respond significantly during radiation treatment (tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss). Implications of this response are the potential underdosing or overdosing of tumour and/or surrounding critical structures. This could lead to sub-optimal patient outcomes and compromised quality of life. Consequently, the development of adaptive treatment strategies that improve organ sparing for this patient group is important to ensure delivery of the prescribed dose to the tumour volume whilst minimizing the dose received to surrounding critical structures. This could reduce side effects and improve overall patient quality of life. The risk profiles and associated adaptive treatment approaches developed in this study will be tested prospectively in the clinical setting in Phase 2 of this investigation.

Modelling risk at low exposure railway level crossings : supporting an argument for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity

This paper describes a risk model for estimating the likelihood of collisions at low-exposure railway level crossings, demonstrating the effect that differences in safety integrity can have on the likelihood of a collision. The model facilitates the comparison of safety benefits between level crossings with passive controls (stop or give-way signs) and level crossings that have been hypothetically upgraded with conventional or low-cost warning devices. The scenario presented illustrates how treatment of a cross-section of level crossings with low cost devices can provide a greater safety benefit compared to treatment with conventional warning devices for the same budget.

Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem. The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning, and; 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.

The Limited Benefit of Prison in Controlling Crime : On the Threshold of a Political Shift

In 2012 the New Zealand government spent $3.4 billion, or nearly $800 per person, on responses to crime via the justice system. Research shows that much of this spending does little to reduce the changes of re-offending. Relatively little money is spent on victims, the rehabilitation of offenders or to support the families of offenders. This book is based on papers presented at the Costs of Crime forum held by the Institute of Policy Studies in February 2011. It presents lessons from what is happening in Australia, Britain and the United States and focuses on how best to manage crime, respond to victims, and reduce offending in a cost-effective manner in a New Zealand context. It is clear that strategies are needed that are based on better research and a more informed approach to policy development. Such strategies must assist victims constructively while also reducing offending. Using public resources to lock as many people in our prisons as possible cannot be justified by the evidence and is fiscally unsustainable; nor does such an approach make society safer. To reduce the costs of crime we need to reinvest resources in effective strategies to build positive futures for those at risk and the communities needed to sustain them.

The influence of family history of hypertension on disease prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors among Sri Lankan adults

Background Hypertension is a major contributor to the global non-communicable disease burden. Family history is an important non-modifiable risk factor for hypertension. The present study aims to describe the influence of family history (FH) on hypertension prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors in a large cohort of South Asian adults, from a nationally representative sample from Sri Lanka. Methods A cross-sectional survey among 5,000 Sri Lankan adults, evaluating FH at the levels of parents, grandparents, siblings and children. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed in all patients with ‘presence of hypertension’ as dichotomous dependent variable and using family history in parents, grandparents, siblings and children as binary independent variables. The adjusted odds ratio controlling for confounders (age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and physical activity) are presented below. Results In all adults the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in patients with a FH (29.3 %, n = 572/1951) than those without (24.4 %, n = 616/2530) (p < 0.001). Presence of a FH significantly increased the risk of hypertension (OR:1.29; 95 % CI:1.13-1.47), obesity (OR:1.36; 95 % CI: 1.27–1.45), central obesity (OR:1.30; 95 % CI 1.22–1.40) and metabolic syndrome (OR:1.19; 95 % CI: 1.08–1.30). In all adults presence of family history in parents (OR:1.28; 95 % CI: 1.12–1.48), grandparents (OR:1.34; 95 % CI: 1.20–1.50) and siblings (OR:1.27; 95 % CI: 1.21–1.33) all were associated with significantly increased risk of developing hypertension. Conclusions Our results show that the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in those with a FH of hypertension. FH of hypertension was also associated with the prevalence of obesity, central obesity and metabolic syndrome. Individuals with a FH of hypertension form an easily identifiable group who may benefit from targeted interventions.

Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

'Work it out': Evaluation of a chronic condition self-management program for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with or at risk of cardiovascular disease

This thesis evaluates a chronic condition self-management program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in urban south-east Queensland who have or are at risk of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes showed short-term improvements for some anthropometry measures which could be a trend for improvement in other anthropometry indicators over the longer term. The program was of particular benefit for participants who had several social and emotional wellbeing conditions. The use of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander conceptual framework was critical in undertaking culturally competent quantitative research in this project.

An analysis of risk management disclosures: Australian evidence

- Purpose Communication of risk management practices are a critical component of good corporate governance. Research to date has been of little benefit in informing regulators internationally. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating how listed Australian companies in a setting where disclosures are explicitly required by the ASX corporate governance framework, disclose risk management (RM) information in the corporate governance statements within annual reports. - Design/methodology/approach To address our study’s research questions and related hypotheses, we examine the top 300 ASX-listed companies by market capitalisation at 30 June 2010. For these firms, we identify, code and categorise RM disclosures made in the annual reports according to the disclosure categories specified in Australian Stock Exchange Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations (ASX CGPR). The derived data is then examined using a comprehensive approach comprising thematic content analysis and regression analysis. - Findings The results indicate widespread divergence in disclosure practices and low conformance with the Principle 7 of the ASX CGPR. This result suggests that companies are not disclosing all ‘material business risks’ possibly due to ignorance at the board level, or due to the intentional withholding of sensitive information from financial statement users. The findings also show mixed results across the factors expected to influence disclosure behaviour. Notably, the presence of a risk committee (RC) (in particular, a standalone RC) and technology committee (TC) are found to be associated with improved levels of disclosure. we do not find evidence that company risk measures (as proxied by equity beta and the market-to-book ratio) are significantly associated with greater levels of RM disclosure. Also, contrary to common findings in the disclosure literature, factors such as board independence and expertise, audit committee independence, and the usage of a Big-4 auditor do not seem to impact the level of RM disclosure in the Australian context. - Research limitation/implications The study is limited by the sample and study period selection as the RM disclosures of only the largest (top 300) ASX firms are examined for the fiscal year 2010. Thus, the finding may not be generalisable to smaller firms, or earlier/later years. Also, the findings may have limited applicability in other jurisdictions with different regulatory environments. - Practical implications The study’s findings suggest that insufficient attention has been applied to RM disclosures by listed companies in Australia. These results suggest that the RM disclosures practices observed in the Australian setting may not be meeting the objectives of regulators and the needs of stakeholders. - Originality/value Despite the importance of risk management communication, it is unclear whether disclosures in annual financial reports achieve this communication. The Australian setting provides an ideal environment to examine the nature and extent of risk management communication as the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has recommended risk management disclosures follow Principle 7 of its principle-based governance rules since 2007.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention - emphasis on dietary composition and identification of high-risk individuals

Type 2 diabetes is an increasing, serious, and costly public health problem. The increase in the prevalence of the disease can mainly be attributed to changing lifestyles leading to physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity. These lifestyle-related risk factors offer also a possibility for preventive interventions. Until recently, proper evidence regarding the prevention of type 2 diabetes has been virtually missing. To be cost-effective, intensive interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes should be directed to people at an increased risk of the disease. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals, and to develop a practical method to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes and would benefit from such an intervention. To study the effect of lifestyle intervention on diabetes risk, we recruited 522 volunteer, middle-aged (aged 40 - 64 at baseline), overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) men (n = 172) and women (n = 350) with impaired glucose tolerance to the Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). The participants were randomly allocated either to the intensive lifestyle intervention group or the control group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline, and had annual physician's examination. The participants in the intervention group received, in addition, individualised dietary counselling by a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and were advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight (5% or more reduction from baseline weight), limit dietary fat (< 30% of total energy consumed) and saturated fat (< 10% of total energy consumed), and to increase dietary fibre intake (15 g / 1000 kcal or more) and physical activity (≥ 30 minutes/day). Diabetes status was assessed annually by a repeated 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing. First analysis on end-points was completed after a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, and the intervention phase was terminated after a mean duration of 3.9 years. After that, the study participants continued to visit the study clinics for the annual examinations, for a mean of 3 years. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, mean weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 kg and 0.9 kg in the control group. Cardiovascular risk factors improved more in the intervention group. After a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58% in the intervention group compared with the control group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with achieved lifestyle goals. Furthermore, those who consumed moderate-fat, high-fibre diet achieved the largest weight reduction and, even after adjustment for weight reduction, the lowest diabetes risk during the intervention period. After discontinuation of the counselling, the differences in lifestyle variables between the groups still remained favourable for the intervention group. During the post-intervention follow-up period of 3 years, the risk of diabetes was still 36% lower among the former intervention group participants, compared with the former control group participants. To develop a simple screening tool to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, follow-up data of two population-based cohorts of 35-64 year old men and women was used. The National FINRISK Study 1987 cohort (model development data) included 4435 subjects, with 182 new drug-treated cases of diabetes identified during ten years, and the FINRISK Study 1992 cohort (model validation data) included 4615 subjects, with 67 new cases of drug-treated diabetes during five years, ascertained using the Social Insurance Institution's Drug register. Baseline age, body mass index, waist circumference, history of antihypertensive drug treatment and high blood glucose, physical activity and daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables were selected into the risk score as categorical variables. In the 1987 cohort the optimal cut-off point of the risk score identified 78% of those who got diabetes during the follow-up (= sensitivity of the test) and 77% of those who remained free of diabetes (= specificity of the test). In the 1992 cohort the risk score performed equally well. The final Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) form includes, in addition to the predictors of the model, a question about family history of diabetes and the age category of over 64 years. When applied to the DPS population, the baseline FINDRISC value was associated with diabetes risk among the control group participants only, indicating that the intensive lifestyle intervention given to the intervention group participants abolished the diabetes risk associated with baseline risk factors. In conclusion, the intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, body weight, and cardiovascular risk factors, and reduced diabetes risk. Furthermore, the effects of the intervention were sustained after the intervention was discontinued. The FINDRISC proved to be a simple, fast, inexpensive, non-invasive, and reliable tool to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. The use of FINDRISC to identify high-risk subjects, followed by lifestyle intervention, provides a feasible scheme in preventing type 2 diabetes, which could be implemented in the primary health care system.

Algorithm of medication review in frail older people: Focus on minimizing the use of high-risk medications

Aim Frail older people typically suffer several chronic diseases, receive multiple medications and are more likely to be institutionalized in residential aged care facilities. In such patients, optimizing prescribing and avoiding use of high-risk medications might prevent adverse events. The present study aimed to develop a pragmatic, easily applied algorithm for medication review to help clinicians identify and discontinue potentially inappropriate high-risk medications. Methods The literature was searched for robust evidence of the association of adverse effects related to potentially inappropriate medications in older patients to identify high-risk medications. Prior research into the cessation of potentially inappropriate medications in older patients in different settings was synthesized into a four-step algorithm for incorporation into clinical assessment protocols for patients, particularly those in residential aged care facilities. Results The algorithm comprises several steps leading to individualized prescribing recommendations: (i) identify a high-risk medication; (ii) ascertain the current indications for the medication and assess their validity; (iii) assess if the drug is providing ongoing symptomatic benefit; and (iv) consider withdrawing, altering or continuing medications. Decision support resources were developed to complement the algorithm in ensuring a systematic and patient-centered approach to medication discontinuation. These include a comprehensive list of high-risk medications and the reasons for inappropriateness, lists of alternative treatments, and suggested medication withdrawal protocols. Conclusions The algorithm captures a range of different clinical scenarios in relation to potentially inappropriate medications, and offers an evidence-based approach to identifying and, if appropriate, discontinuing such medications. Studies are required to evaluate algorithm effects on prescribing decisions and patient outcomes.

Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis.

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

A risk perspective on human resource management: A review and directions for future research

Arguing the value of effective HRM practice has long been a focus in the HRM literature. However, there is also a case for identifying the risks presented by inappropriate or absent HRM practices. Although risk management has been established in the broader management literature for over two decades, human resource related risks have not featured as prominently as other types of risks. HRM as a discipline has a role to play in addressing this situation and raising awareness of human resource issues as risks for the organization. A review of papers published since the year 2000 in a broad range of high quality management journals, identifies that limited research has thus far taken a risk management perspective on human resources. Although the HRM and risk management disciplines stand to benefit from drawing the two areas together, this review concludes that further research and development of the phenomenon of human resource risk management is needed.

Accounting for risk: The advent of capped conveyancing title insurance

Title insurance companies originating from America, have, in the past 15 years become part of the Australian conveyancing landscape. However for most residential freehold owners, their activities would be a mystery. A purchaser does not routinely obtain title insurance, with the companies presently focussing on servicing the mortgagee sector. While the lack of penetration in the residential purchaser market may be attributed to the consumer’s lack of knowledge, evidence from Ontario and New Zealand illustrates that title insurance is likely to become an additional cost in the conveyancing process in Australia. In this article we highlight the reasons why, and demonstrate how title insurers have, by working with the legal profession been able to subtly move the risk of responsibility for compensation for loss, (at least in the first instance) from the state to the insurer, but with the added benefit for the state and the conveyancing agents that the cost of the insurance is ultimately borne by the consumer. In New Zealand this development is being accelerated by the introduction of capped conveyancing title insurance. Whether title insurance will become part of the conveyancing process is no longer the relevant question for Australia, (it undoubtedly will), but the unknown issue is just how title insurance companies will work with conveyancing agents to infiltrate the market, and what response this infiltration will have in terms of the state’s view as to their continued role in the provision of assurance. We suggest that developments from New Zealand in relation to capped conveyancing insurance are likely to be replicated in Australia in the near future, and that the state’s role in providing an assurance fund will continue, though the state may seek to expand the areas in which the right to compensation is restricted.

Prevention of foot ulcers in the at-risk patient with diabetes: A systematic review

Background Prevention of foot ulcers in patients with diabetes is extremely important to help reduce the enormous burden of foot ulceration on both patient and health resources. A comprehensive analysis of reported interventions is not currently available, but is needed to better inform caregivers about effective prevention. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the effectiveness of interventions to prevent first and recurrent foot ulcers in persons with diabetes who are at risk for ulceration. Methods The available medical scientific literature in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane database was searched for original research studies on preventative interventions. Both controlled and non-controlled studies were selected. Data from controlled studies were assessed for methodological quality by two independent reviewers. Results From the identified records, a total of 30 controlled studies (of which 19 RCTs) and another 44 non-controlled studies were assessed and described. Few controlled studies, of generally low to moderate quality, were identified on the prevention of a first foot ulcer. For the prevention of recurrent plantar foot ulcers, multiple RCTs with low risk of bias show the benefit for the use of daily foot skin temperature measurements and consequent preventative actions, as well as for therapeutic footwear that demonstrates to relieve plantar pressure and that is worn by the patient. To prevent recurrence, some evidence exists for integrated foot care when it includes a combination of professional foot treatment, therapeutic footwear and patient education; for just a single session of patient education, no evidence exists. Surgical interventions can be effective in selected patients, but the evidence base is small. Conclusion The evidence base to support the use of specific self-management and footwear interventions for the prevention of recurrent plantar foot ulcers is quite strong, but is small for the use of other, sometimes widely applied, interventions and is practically nonexistent for the prevention of a first foot ulcer and non-plantar foot ulcer.