Testing a belief-based intervention encouraging sun safety among adolescents in a high risk area

Objective. To provide a preliminary test of a Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) belief-based intervention to increase adolescents’ sun protective behaviors in a high risk area, Queensland, Australia. Methods. In the period of October-November, 2007 and May-June, 2008, 80 adolescents (14.53 ± 0.69 years) were recruited from two secondary schools (one government and one private) in Queensland after obtaining student, parental, and school informed consent. Adolescents were allocated to either a control or intervention condition based on the class they attended. The intervention comprised three, one hour in-school sessions facilitated by Cancer Council Queensland employees with sessions covering the belief basis of the TPB (i.e., behavioral, normative, and control [barrier and motivator] sun-safe beliefs). Participants completed questionnaires assessing sun-safety beliefs, intentions, and behavior pre- and post-intervention. Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance was used to test the effect of the intervention across time on these constructs. Results. Students completing the intervention reported stronger sun-safe normative and motivator beliefs and intentions and the performance of more sun-safe behaviors across time than those in the control condition. Conclusion. Strengthening beliefs about the approval of others and motivators for sun protection may encourage sun-safe cognitions and actions among adolescents.

The development and validation of two complementary measures of drivers' hazard perception ability

Hazard perception in driving involves a number of different processes. This paper reports the development of two measures designed to separate these processes. A Hazard Perception Test was developed to measure how quickly drivers could anticipate hazards overall, incorporating detection, trajectory prediction, and hazard classification judgements. A Hazard Change Detection Task was developed to measure how quickly drivers can detect a hazard in a static image regardless of whether they consider it hazardous or not. For the Hazard Perception Test, young novices were slower than mid-age experienced drivers, consistent with differences in crash risk, and test performance correlated with scores in pre-existing Hazard Perception Tests. For drivers aged 65 and over, scores on the Hazard Perception Test declined with age and correlated with both contrast sensitivity and a Useful Field of View measure. For the Hazard Change Detection Task, novices responded quicker than the experienced drivers, contrary to crash risk trends, and test performance did not correlate with measures of overall hazard perception. However for drivers aged 65 and over, test performance declined with age and correlated with both hazard perception and Useful Field of View. Overall we concluded that there was support for the validity of the Hazard Perception Test for all ages but the Hazard Change Detection Task might only be appropriate for use with older drivers.

Measuring risk and blameworthiness in the sentencing of criminal defendants : an exploratory study in Western Australia's Higher Courts

The focal concern perspective dominates quantitative explorations of judicial sentencing. A critical argument underlying this perspective is the role of judicial assessments of risk and blameworthiness. Prior research has not generally explored how these two concepts fit together. This study provides an empirical test of the focal concerns perspective by examining the latent structure among the measures traditionally used in sentencing research, and investigates the extent to which focal concerns can be applied in a non-US jurisdiction. Using factor analysis (as suggested by prior research), we find evidence of distinct factors of risk and blameworthiness, with separate and independent effects on sentencing outcomes. We also identify the need for further development of the focal concerns perspective, especially around the role of perceptual shorthand.

Body composition and its relationship to metabolic risk factors in Asian children

Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The body mass index (BMI) is the most common index used to define obesity. The universal application of the same BMI classification across different ethnic groups is being challenged due to the inability of the index to differentiate fat mass (FM) and fat�]free mass (FFM) and the recognized ethnic differences in body composition. A better understanding of the body composition of Asian children from different backgrounds would help to better understand the obesity�]related health risks of people in this region. Moreover, the limitations of the BMI underscore the necessity to use where possible, more accurate measures of body fat assessment in research and clinical settings in addition to BMI, particularly in relation to the monitoring of prevention and treatment efforts. The aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in the relationship between BMI and percent body fat (%BF) in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. A total of 1039 children aged 8�]10 y were recruited using a non�]random purposive sampling approach aiming to encompass a wide BMI range from the five countries. Percent body fat (%BF) was determined using the deuterium dilution technique to quantify total body water (TBW) and subsequently derive proportions of FM and FFM. The study highlighted the sex and ethnic differences between BMI and %BF in Asian children from different countries. Girls had approximately 4.0% higher %BF compared with boys at a given BMI. Filipino boys tended to have a lower %BF than their Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai counterparts at the same age and BMI level (corrected mean %BF was 25.7�}0.8%, 27.4�}0.4%, 27.1�}0.6%, 27.7�}0.5%, 28.1�}0.5% for Filipino, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai boys, respectively), although they differed significantly from Thai and Malay boys. Thai girls had approximately 2.0% higher %BF values than Chinese, Lebanese, Filipino and Malay counterparts (however no significant difference was seen among the four ethnic groups) at a given BMI (corrected mean %BF was 31.1�}0.5%, 28.6�}0.4%, 29.2�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.5% for Thai, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Filipino girls, respectively). However, the ethnic difference in BMI�]%BF relationship varied by BMI. Compared with Caucasians, Asian children had a BMI 3�]6 units lower for a given %BF. More than one third of obese Asian children in the study were not identified using the WHO classification and more than half were not identified using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) classification. However, use of the Chinese classification increased the sensitivity by 19.7%, 18.1%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 11.3% for Chinese, Lebanese, Malay, Filipino and Thai girls, respectively. A further aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in body fat distribution in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Thailand. The skin fold thicknesses, height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and total adiposity (as determined by deuterium dilution technique) of 922 children from the four countries was assessed. Chinese boys and girls had a similar trunk�]to�]extremity skin fold thickness ratio to Thai counterparts and both groups had higher ratios than the Malays and Lebanese at a given total FM. At a given BMI, both Chinese and Thai boys and girls had a higher WC than Malays and Lebanese (corrected mean WC was 68.1�}0.2 cm, 67.8�}0.3 cm, 65.8�}0.4 cm, 64.1�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay boys, respectively; 64.2�}0.2 cm, 65.0�}0.3 cm, 62.9�}0.4 cm, 60.6�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay girls, respectively). Chinese boys and girls had lower trunk fat adjusted subscapular/suprailiac skinfold ratio compared with Lebanese and Malay counterparts. The second study aimed to develop and cross�]validate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) prediction equations of TBW and FFM for Asian pre�]pubertal children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Data on height, weight, age, gender, resistance and reactance measured by BIA were collected from 948 Asian children (492 boys and 456 girls) aged 8�]10 y from the five countries. The deuterium dilution technique was used as the criterion method for the estimation of TBW and FFM. The BIA equations were developed from the validation group (630 children randomly selected from the total sample) using stepwise multiple regression analysis and cross�]validated in a separate group (318 children) using the Bland�]Altman approach. Age, gender and ethnicity influenced the relationship between the resistance index (RI = height2/resistance), TBW and FFM. The BIA prediction equation for the estimation of TBW was: TBW (kg) = 0.231�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.066�~Height (cm) + 0.188�~Weight (kg) + 0.128�~Age (yr) + 0.500�~Sex (male=1, female=0) . 0.316�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 4.574, and for the estimation of FFM: FFM (kg) = 0.299�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.086�~Height (cm) + 0.245�~Weight (kg) + 0.260�~Age (yr) + 0.901�~Sex (male=1, female=0) �] 0.415�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 6.952. The R2 was 88.0% (root mean square error, RSME = 1.3 kg), 88.3% (RSME = 1.7 kg) for TBW and FFM equation, respectively. No significant difference between measured and predicted TBW and between measured and predicted FFM for the whole cross�]validation sample was found (bias = �]0.1�}1.4 kg, pure error = 1.4�}2.0 kg for TBW and bias = �]0.2�}1.9 kg, pure error = 1.8�}2.6 kg for FFM). However, the prediction equation for estimation of TBW/FFM tended to overestimate TBW/FFM at lower levels while underestimate at higher levels of TBW/FFM. Accuracy of the general equation for TBW and FFM compared favorably with both BMI�]specific and ethnic�]specific equations. There were significant differences between predicted TBW and FFM from external BIA equations derived from Caucasian populations and measured values in Asian children. There were three specific aims of the third study. The first was to explore the relationship between obesity and metabolic syndrome and abnormalities in Chinese children. A total of 608 boys and 800 girls aged 6�]12 y were recruited from four cities in China. Three definitions of pediatric metabolic syndrome and abnormalities were used, including the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition for adults modified by Cook et al. and de Ferranti et al. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied with different definitions, was highest using the de Ferranti definition (5.4%, 24.6% and 42.0%, respectively for normal�]weight, overweight and obese children), followed by the Cook definition (1.5%, 8.1%, and 25.1%, respectively), and the IDF definition (0.5%, 1.8% and 8.3%, respectively). Overweight and obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal�]weight children (odds ratio varied with different definitions from 3.958 to 6.866 for overweight children, and 12.640�]26.007 for obese children). Overweight and obesity also increased the risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. Central obesity and high triglycerides (TG) were the most common while hyperglycemia was the least frequent in Chinese children regardless of different definitions. The second purpose was to determine the best obesity index for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor clustering across a 2�]y follow�]up among BMI, %BF, WC and waist�]to�]height ratio (WHtR) in Chinese children. Height, weight, WC, %BF as determined by BIA, blood pressure, TG, high�]density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL�]C), and fasting glucose were collected at baseline and 2 years later in 292 boys and 277 girls aged 8�]10 y. The results showed the percentage of children who remained overweight/obese defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR and %BF was 89.7%, 93.5%, 84.5%, and 80.4%, respectively after 2 years. Obesity indices at baseline significantly correlated with TG, HDL�]C, and blood pressure at both baseline and 2 years later with a similar strength of correlations. BMI at baseline explained the greatest variance of later blood pressure. WC at baseline explained the greatest variance of later HDL�]C and glucose, while WHtR at baseline was the main predictor of later TG. Receiver�]operating characteristic (ROC) analysis explored the ability of the four indices to identify the later presence of CV risk. The overweight/obese children defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR or %BF were more likely to develop CV risk 2 years later with relative risk (RR) scores of 3.670, 3.762, 2.767, and 2.804, respectively. The final purpose of the third study was to develop age�] and gender�]specific percentiles of WC and WHtR and cut�]off points of WC and WHtR for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children. Smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHtR were produced in 2830 boys and 2699 girls aged 6�]12 y randomly selected from southern and northern China using the LMS method. The optimal age�] and gender�]specific thresholds of WC and WHtR for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering were derived in a sub�]sample (n=1845) by ROC analysis. Age�] and gender�]specific WC and WHtR percentiles were constructed. The WC thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67.2% to 83.3%. The WHtR thresholds were at the 91st and 94th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 78.6% to 88.9%. The cut�]offs of both WC and WHtR were age�] and gender�]dependent. In conclusion, the current thesis quantifies the ethnic differences in the BMI�]%BF relationship and body fat distribution between Asian children from different origins and confirms the necessity to consider ethnic differences in body composition when developing BMI and other obesity index criteria for obesity in Asian children. Moreover, ethnicity is also important in BIA prediction equations. In addition, WC and WHtR percentiles and thresholds for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children differ from other populations. Although there was no advantage of WC or WHtR over BMI or %BF in the prediction of CV risk, obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome and abnormalities than normal�]weight children regardless of the obesity index used.

When non-significance maybe significant: lessons learned from a study into the development, implementation and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for fleet settings

Introduction This study reports on the development of a self report assessment tool to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian Fleet settings Over last 20 years an array of measures have been produced (Driver anger scale, Driving Skill Inventory, Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, Driver Attitude Questionnaire, Driver Stress Inventory, Safety Climate Questionnaire) While these tools are useful, research has demonstrated limited ability to accurately identify individuals most likely to be involved in a crash. Reasons cited include; - Crashes are relatively rare - Other competing factors may influence crash event - Ongoing questions regarding the validity of self report measures (common method variance etc) - Lack of contemporary issues relating to fleet driving performance

Bicycling injuries and perceived risk

Introduction Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries. Method A survey of 2,532 Queensland adults who had ridden at least once in the past year was conducted from October 2009 to March 2010, with most responses received online (99.3%). Riders were asked where they rode (footpath, bike path, road etc.), average travel speed, purpose of riding, type of bike ridden, how far and how often they rode in. Measures of rider experience, skill, safety perceptions, safety behaviours, crash involvement and demographic characteristics were also collected. RESULTS Increasing exposure and having more expensive bicycles were shown to reduce the risk per km of crash and non-crash injury rates, and to reduce perceived risk. Never wearing bright coloured clothing related to increased crash risk, use of fluorescent and reflective clothing had no effect on crash risk. Riding in low-speed environments, never using a front light, and riding in low-speed environments were associated with reduced non-crash injury risk. Perceived risk was influenced by exposure, use of conspicuity aids and helmets, riding for utilitarian reasons, and group-riding behaviours. DISCUSSION Perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates and injury rates do not appear to influence the perceived risk of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling to be risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding and always wear helmets. Not all measures of conspicuity were associated with risk, with rear lights found to have no relationship to injury. The risks of experiencing a crash or non-crash injury were similar, therefore injury prevention strategies should expand their scope to include other factors such as the importance of bicycle set-up.

Evaluation of the skills for preventing injury in youth program : impact on health risk behaviors, injury and school connectedness

Injury is the leading cause of death among young people, and involvement in health risk behaviors, such as alcohol use and transport-related risks, is related to increased risk for injury. Effective health promotion programs for adolescents focus on multiple levels, including relationships with peers and parents, student knowledge, behavior and attitudes, and school-level factors such as school connectedness. This study describes the pilot evaluation of a comprehensive, multi-level injury prevention program for 13-14 year old adolescents, targeting change in injury associated with transport and alcohol risks. The program, called Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), incorporates two primary elements: an 8-week, teacher delivered attitude and behavior change curriculum with peer protection and first aid messages; and professional development for program teachers focusing on strategies to increase students’ connectedness to school. Five Australian high schools were recruited for the pilot evaluation research, with three being assigned to receive intervention components and two assigned as curriculum-as-usual controls. In the intervention schools, 118 Year 8 students participated in surveys at baseline, with 105 completing surveys at follow up, six months following the intervention. In the control schools, 196 Year 8 students completed surveys at baseline and 207 at follow up. Survey measures included self-reported injury, risk taking behavior and school connectedness. Results showed that students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report riding bikes without helmets, riding with dangerous drivers, having driven cars on the road, and using alcohol six months after the program, while the intervention group showed no such increase in these behaviors. Additionally, students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report having had pedestrian-related injuries at follow up than they were at the baseline measurement, while intervention school students showed no change. There was also a trend observed in terms of a decrease in bicycle related injuries among intervention school students, compared with a slight increasing trend in bicycle injuries among control students. Overall, scores on the school connectedness scale decreased significantly from baseline to follow up for both intervention and control students, however measurement limitations may have impacted on results relating to students’ connectedness. Overall, the SPIY program has shown promising results in regards to prevention of students’ health risk behavior and injuries. Evidence suggests that the curriculum component was important; however there was limited evidence to suggest that teacher training in school connectedness strategies contributed to these promising results. While school connectedness may be an important factor to target in risk and injury prevention programs, programs may need to incorporate whole-of-school strategies or target a broader range of teachers than were selected for the current research.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Educational stress among Chinese adolescents : measurement, risk factors and associations with mental health

Academic pressure among adolescents is a major risk factor for poor mental health and suicide and other harmful behaviours. While this is a worldwide phenomenon, it appears to be especially pronounced in China and other East Asian countries. Despite a growing body of research into adolescent mental health in recent years, the multiple constructs within the ‘educational stress’ phenomenon have not been clearly articulated in Chinese contexts. Further, the individual, family, school and peer influencing factors for educational stress and its associations with adolescent mental health are not well understood. An in-depth investigation may provide important information for the ongoing educational reform in Mainland China with a special focus on students’ mental health and wellbeing. The primary goal of this study was to examine the relative contribution of educational stress to poor mental health, in comparison to other well-known individual, family, school and peer factors. Another important task was to identify significant risk factors for educational stress. In addition, due to the lack of a culturally suitable instrument for educational stress in this population, a new tool – the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA) was initially developed in this study and tested for reliability and validity. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from convenient samples of secondary school students in Shandong, China. The pilot survey was conducted with 347 students (grades 8 and 11) to test the psychometric properties of the ESSA and other scales or questions in the questionnaire. Based on factor analysis and reliability and validity testing, the 16-item scale (the ESSA) with five factors showed adequate to good internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent and predictive validity. Its factor structure was further demonstrated in the main survey with a confirmatory factor analysis illustrating a good fit of the proposed model based on a confirmatory factor analysis. The reliabilities of other scales and questions were also adequate to be used in this study. The main survey was subsequently conducted with a sample of 1627 secondary school (grades 7-12) students to examine the influencing factors of educational stress and its associations with mental health outcomes, including depression, happiness and suicidal behaviours. A wide range of individual, family, school and peer factors were found to have a significant association with the total ESSA and subscale scores. Most of the strong factors for academic stress were school or study-related, including rural school location, low school connectedness, perceived poor academic grades and frequent emotional conflicts with teachers and peers. Unexpectedly, family and parental factors, such as parental bonding, family connectedness and conflicts with parents were found to have little or no association with educational stress. Educational stress was the most predictive variable for depression, but was not strongly associated with happiness. It had a strong association with suicide ideation but not with suicide attempts. Among five subscales of the ESSA, ‘Study despondency’ score had the strongest associations with these mental health measures. Surprising, two subscales, ‘Self-expectation’ and ‘Worry about grades’ showed a protective effect on suicidal behaviours. An additional analysis revealed that although academic pressure was the most commonly reported reason for suicidal thinking, the occurrence of problems in peer relationships such as peer teasing and bullying, and romantic problems had a much stronger relationship with actual attempts. This study provides some insights into the nature and health implications of educational stress among Chinese adolescents. Findings in this study suggest that interventions on educational stress should focus on school environment and academic factors. Intervention programs focused on educational stress may have a high impact on the prevalence of common mental disorders such as depression. Efforts to increase perceived happiness however should cover a wider range of individual, family and school factors. The importance of healthy peer relationships should be adequately emphasised in suicide prevention. In addition, the newly developed scale (the ESSA) demonstrates sound psychometric properties and is expected to be used in future research into academic-related stress among secondary school adolescents.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in Regional Areas: The Healthy Hearts – Beyond City Limits Program

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is more prevalent in regional and remote Australia compared to metropolitan areas. The aim of Healthy Hearts was to determine age and sex specific CVD risk factor levels and the potential value of national risk clinics. Methods: Healthy Hearts was an observational research study conducted in four purposefully selected higher risk communities in regional Victoria, Australia. The main outcome measures were the proportion of participants with CVD risk factors with group comparisons to determine the adjusted likelihood of elevated risk factor levels. Trained personnel used a standardized protocol over four weeks per community to measure CVD risk factor levels, estimate absolute CVD risk and provide feedback and advice. Results: A total of 2125 self-selected participants were assessed (mean age 58 ± 15 years, 57% women). Overall, CVD risk factors were highly prevalent. More men than women had ≥ 2 modifiable CVD risk factors (76% vs. 68%, p < .001), pre-existing CVD (20 vs. 15%, p < .01) and a major ECG abnormality requiring follow-up (15% vs. 7%, p < .001) . Less men reported depressive symptoms compared to women (28% vs. 22%, p < .01). A higher proportion of women were obese (adjusted OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.63), and physically inactive (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.63). Conclusions: High CVD risk factor levels were confirmed for regional Victoria. Close engagement with individuals and communities provides scope for the application of regional risk management clinics to reduce the burden of CVD risk in regional Australia.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.

Subacute effects of ecstasy on mood : an exploration of associated risk factors

Ecstasy use may result in lowered mood, anxiety or aggression in the days following use. Yet, few studies have investigated what factors increase the risk of experiencing such symptoms. Ecstasy users (at least once in the last 12 months) who subsequently took ecstasy (n=35) over the next week, were compared on measures of mood, sleep, stress and drug use, with those who abstained (n=21) that week. Measures were administered the week prior to ecstasy use and 1 and 3 days following use, or the equivalent day for abstainers. Mood symptoms were assessed using the Kessler-10 self-report psychological distress scale, a subjective mood rating (1-10), and the depression, anxiety and hostility items of the clinician-rated Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Timeline followback methods were used to collect information on drug use and life stress in the past month. Self-reported sleep quality was also assessed. Ecstasy use was not associated with subacute depressive, anxiety or aggressive symptoms. Rather, lowered mood and increased psychological distress were associated with self-reported hours and quality of sleep obtained during the 3-day follow up. These findings highlight the importance of considering sleep disruption in understanding the short-term mood effects of ecstasy use.