Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Controlling gene expression in enterobacteriaceae: studies on sRNAs and strategies for synthetic biology

Dissertation presented to obtain the Master Degree in Molecular, Genetics and Biomedicine

How effective is dog culling in controlling zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis? a critical evaluation of the science, politics and ethics behind this public health policy

INTRODUCTION: Zoonotic kala-azar, a lethal disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania is considered out of control in parts of the world, particularly in Brazil, where transmission has spread to cities throughout most of the territory and mortality presents an increasing trend. Although a highly debatable measure, the Brazilian government regularly culls seropositive dogs to control the disease. Since control is failing, critical analysis concerning the actions focused on the canine reservoir was conducted. METHODS: In a review of the literature, a historical perspective focusing mainly on comparisons between the successful Chinese and Soviet strategies and the Brazilian approach is presented. In addition, analyses of the principal studies regarding the role of dogs as risk factors to humans and of the main intervention studies regarding the efficacy of the dog killing strategy were undertaken. Brazilian political reaction to a recently published systematic review that concluded that the dog culling program lacked efficiency and its effect on public policy were also reviewed. RESULTS: No firm evidence of the risk conferred by the presence of dogs to humans was verified; on the contrary, a lack of scientific support for the policy of killing dogs was confirmed. A bias for distorting scientific data towards maintaining the policy of culling animals was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Since there is no evidence that dog culling diminishes visceral leishmaniasis transmission, it should be abandoned as a control measure. Ethical considerations have been raised regarding distorting scientific results and the killing of animals despite minimal or absent scientific evidence

Enfermedad de Chagas: epidemiología de vectores y estrategias educativas para la vigilancia entomológica en áreas de riesgo del norte de la provincia de Córdoba. Chagas disease: epidemiology of vectors and educational strategies for entomological surveillance in risk areas of northern province of Cordoba.

La Enfermedad de Chagas es considerada en términos sociales y económicos, una de las enfermedades parasíticas más importantes de América Latina. La transmisión vectorial de esta enfermedad ha sido interrumpida en gran parte de América Latina sin embargo, el control vectorial no ha podido lograr la sostenibilidad y la efectividad necesarias para interrumpir la transmisión vectorial en la región del Gran Chaco de Argentina, Bolivia y Paraguay. La permanencia de poblaciones residuales de triatominos en estructuras peridomiciliarias permite una rápida recuperación del vector, sugiriéndose que estas poblaciones serían la principal fuente de reinfestación de la vivienda humana. Este escenario plantea por lo tanto la necesidad de estudiar con más profundidad las poblaciones de triatominos presentes en los peridomicilios para comprender su dispersión, capacidad de domiciliación y así entender el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Dentro de la provincia de Córdoba existen áreas que por la presencia histórica de triatomineos, la notificación reciente de casos de Chagas vectorial y el registro de especies silvestres invadiendo los domicilios merecen un estudio más profundo. Es por ello que se propone realizar un relevamiento de las especies de triatomineos que habitan los domicilios y peridomicilios en estas zonas, calcular los índices de infección con Trypanosoma cruzi que presentan, caracterizar su perfil alimentario, los factores de riesgo que favorecen su refugio, su capacidad dispersiva y diferenciar fenotípicamente entre las poblaciones peridomésticas para comprender mejor el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Además, y de manera complementaria, se aplicarán estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar que sirvan para la vigilancia entomológica y acciones preventivas de la Enfermedad de Chagas. La determinación del perfil alimentario pautará la potencialidad de cada vector, siendo esta información fundamental para el análisis de situaciones epidemiológicas de riesgo. La capacidad dispersiva y la diferenciación fenotípica de las poblaciones permitirán conocer el posible movimiento y flujo de triatominos desde y hacia la vivienda humana. La determinación de los factores que favorecen el refugio de triatominos permitirá conocer el nivel de riesgo en que se encuentra cada domicilio. Además, considerando la importancia de las poblaciones peridomésticas en los procesos de reinfestación, se analizará la capacidad dispersiva que presentan los triatominos a través de su estado nutricional y, mediante la morfometría clásica y geométrica, se analizará como se estructura la diversidad fenotípica en los domicilios y peridomicilios. La aplicación de estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar favorecerá el conocimiento en general de esta enfermedad, la vigilancia entomólogica y las acciones preventivas por parte de los niños en edad escolar. Chagas disease is considered socially and economically, one of the most important parasitic diseases in Latin America. Vector transmission of this disease has been interrupted in much of Latin America, however, vector control has failed to achieve sustainability and effectiveness necessary to interrupt the vector transmission in the Gran Chaco region of Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. The permanence of residual populations of triatomine in the peridomiciliary structures enables fast recovery of the vector, suggesting that these populations would be the main source of reinfestation of human dwellings. Within the province of Córdoba, there are areas that the historical presence of triatomines, the recent notification of cases of Chagas vector and recording of wild species invading the homes deserve further study. That is why, there will be a survey of Triatominae species that inhabit the domiciles and peridomiciles in these areas, rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, their host feeding preferences, the risk factors that favor its shelter, their dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation between peridomestic populations, to better understand the potential danger they may present to the man and vector species of Chagas disease. In addition, complementary, educational strategies in schools were implemented that serve for entomological surveillance and preventive actions of Chagas disease. The determination of the potential food profile patterns of each vector is essential for epidemiological analysis of risk situations. Dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation of populations may allow understanding the movement and flow of triatomines and from human habitation.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Novel Strategies For Food Risk

Our every day decision-making behaviour relating to food choice is taken in the context of considerations of health, naturalness, economy, convenience and what we perceive as ‘risk’. Risk perception is now as important as any technical assessment of risk. In order to communicate effectively with the consumer about food risks, the importance of the exchange of information and opinions among the interested parties is recognised (FAO/WHO, 1998). Risk communication is “not just a matter of ensuring that one’s messages are delivered and listened to â€_.. also very much a process of empowering individuals â€_. to sharpen the skills necessary to make balanced judgements on risksâ€ù, (Scherer 1991). This safefood review, conducted on an all-island of Ireland basis, provides valuable insights into the perception of food safety risk from consumers on the island of Ireland and the food safety expert viewpoint. It explores the barriers to communicating with consumers on the island of Ireland about food safety risk. It also studies the barriers to promoting and practising good food hygiene - subgroups within the population are identified as being at ‘high risk’ because of inadequate levels of knowledge or more frequently resulting from not believing that the investment of time and effort in good food safety practice is worthwhile.

Biology, diversity and strategies for the monitoring and control of triatomines - Chagas disease vectors

Despite the relevant achievements in the control of the main Chagas disease vectors Triatoma infestans and Rhodnius prolixus, several factors still promote the risk of infection. The disease is a real threat to the poor rural regions of several countries in Latin America. The current situation in Brazil requires renewed attention due to its high diversity of triatomine species and to the rapid and drastic environmental changes that are occurring. Using the biology, behaviour and diversity of triatomines as a basis for new strategies for monitoring and controlling the vectorial transmission are discussed here. The importance of ongoing long-term monitoring activities for house infestations by T. infestans, Triatoma brasiliensis, Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma rubrovaria and R. prolixus is also stressed, as well as understanding the invasion by sylvatic species. Moreover, the insecticide resistance is analysed. Strong efforts to sustain and improve surveillance procedures are crucial, especially when the vectorial transmission is considered interrupted in many endemic areas.

A geoprocessing approach for studying and controlling schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that have been recently tested for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of disease. The objective of this paper was to further develop the GIS technology to model and control schistosomiasis using environmental, social, biological and remote-sensing variables. A final regression model (R² = 0.39) was established, after a variable selection phase, with a set of spatial variables including the presence or absence of Biomphalaria glabrata, winter enhanced vegetation index, summer minimum temperature and percentage of houses with water coming from a spring or well. A regional model was also developed by splitting the state of Minas Gerais (MG) into four regions and establishing a linear regression model for each of the four regions: 1 (R² = 0.97), 2 (R² = 0.60), 3 (R² = 0.63) and 4 (R² = 0.76). Based on these models, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for MG. In this paper, geostatistics was also used to make inferences about the presence of Biomphalaria spp. The result was a map of species and risk areas. The obtained risk map permits the association of uncertainties, which can be used to qualify the inferences and it can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Novel anesthetics and other treatment strategies for refractory status epilepticus

Refractory status epilepticus (RSE)-that is, seizures resistant to at least two antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-is generally managed with barbiturates, propofol, or midazolam, despite a low level of evidence (Rossetti, 2007). When this approach fails, the need for alternative pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic strategies emerges. These have been investigated even less systematically than the aforementioned compounds, and are often used, sometimes in succession, in cases of extreme refractoriness (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006). Several possibilities are reviewed here. In view of the marked heterogeneity of reported information, etiologies, ages, and comedications, it is extremely difficult to evaluate a given method, not to say to compare different strategies among them. Pharmacologic Approaches Isoflurane and desflurane may complete the armamentarium of anesthetics,' and should be employed in a ''close'' environment, in order to prevent intoxication of treating personnel. c-Aminobutyric acid (GABA)A receptor potentiation represents the putative mechanism of action. In an earlier report, isoflurane was used for up to 55 h in nine patients, controlling seizures in all; mortality was, however, 67% (Kofke et al., 1989). More recently, the use of these inhalational anesthetics was described in seven subjects with RSE, for up to 26 days, with an endtidal concentration of 1.2-5%. All patients required vasopressors, and paralytic ileus occurred in three; outcome was fatal in three patients (43%) (Mirsattari et al., 2004). Ketamine, known as an emergency anesthetic because of its favorable hemodynamic profile, is an N-methyl-daspartate (NMDA) antagonist; the interest for its use in RSE derives from animal works showing loss of GABAA efficacy and maintained NMDA sensitivity in prolonged status epilepticus (Mazarati & Wasterlain, 1999). However, to avoid possible neurotoxicity, it appears safer to combine ketamine with GABAergic compounds (Jevtovic-Todorovic et al., 2001; Ubogu et al., 2003), also because of a likely synergistic effect (Martin & Kapur, 2008). There are few reported cases in humans, describing progressive dosages up to 7.5 mg/kg/h for several days (Sheth & Gidal, 1998; Quigg et al., 2002; Pruss & Holtkamp, 2008), with moderate outcomes. Paraldehyde acts through a yet-unidentified mechanism, and appears to be relatively safe in terms of cardiovascular tolerability (Ramsay, 1989; Thulasimani & Ramaswamy, 2002), but because of the risk of crystal formation and its reactivity with plastic, it should be used only as fresh prepared solution in glass devices (Beyenburg et al., 2000). There are virtually no recent reports regarding its use in adults RSE, whereas rectal paraldehyde in children with status epilepticus resistant to benzodiazepines seems less efficacious than intravenous phenytoin (Chin et al., 2008). Etomidate is another anesthetic agent for which the exact mechanism of action is also unknown, which is also relatively favorable regarding cardiovascular side effects, and may be used for rapid sedation. Its use in RSE was reported in eight subjects (Yeoman et al., 1989). After a bolus of 0.3 mg/kg, a drip of up to 7.2 mg/kg/h for up to 12 days was administered, with hypotension occurring in five patients; two patients died. A reversible inhibition of cortisol synthesis represents an important concern, limiting its widespread use and implying a careful hormonal substitution during treatment (Beyenburg et al., 2000). Several nonsedating approaches have been reported. The use of lidocaine in RSE, a class Ib antiarrhythmic agent modulating sodium channels, was reviewed in 1997 (Walker & Slovis, 1997). Initial boluses up to 5 mg/kg and perfusions of up to 6 mg/kg/h have been mentioned; somewhat surprisingly, at times lidocaine seemed to be successful in controlling seizures in patients who were refractory to phenytoin. The aforementioned dosages should not be overshot, in order to keep lidocaine levels under 5 mg/L and avoid seizure induction (Hamano et al., 2006). A recent pediatric retrospective survey on 57 RSE episodes (37 patients) described a response in 36%, and no major adverse events; mortality was not given (Hamano et al., 2006 Verapamil, a calcium-channel blocker, also inhibits P-glycoprotein, a multidrug transporter that may diminish AED availability in the brain (Potschka et al., 2002). Few case reports on its use in humans are available; this medication nevertheless appears relatively safe (under cardiac monitoring) up to dosages of 360 mg/day (Iannetti et al., 2005). Magnesium, a widely used agent for seizures elicited by eclampsia, has also been anecdotally reported in RSE (Fisher et al., 1988; Robakis & Hirsch, 2006), but with scarce results even at serum levels of 14 mm. The rationale may be found in the physiologic blockage of NMDA channels by magnesium ions (Hope & Blumenfeld, 2005). Ketogenic diet has been prescribed for decades, mostly in children, to control refractory seizures. Its use in RSE as ''ultima ratio'' has been occasionally described: three of six children (Francois et al., 2003) and one adult (Bodenant et al., 2008) were responders. This approach displays its effect subacutely over several days to a few weeks. Because ''malignant RSE'' seems at times to be the consequence of immunologic processes (Holtkamp et al., 2005), a course of immunomodulatory treatment is often advocated in this setting, even in the absence of definite autoimmune etiologies (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006); steroids, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), plasma exchanges, or intravenous immunoglobulins may be used alone or in sequential combination. Nonpharmacologic Approaches These strategies are described somewhat less frequently than pharmacologic approaches. Acute implantation of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) has been reported in RSE (Winston et al., 2001; Patwardhan et al., 2005; De Herdt et al., 2009). Stimulation was usually initiated in the operation room, and intensity progressively adapted over a few days up to 1.25 mA (with various regimens regarding the other parameters), allowing a subacute seizure control; one transitory episode of bradycardia/asystole has been described (De Herdt et al., 2009). Of course, pending identification of a definite seizure focus, resective surgery may also be considered in selected cases (Lhatoo & Alexopoulos, 2007). Low-frequency (0.5 Hz) transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) at 90% of the resting motor threshold has been reported to be successful for about 2 months in a patient with epilepsia partialis continua, but with a weaning effect afterward, implying the need for a repetitive use (Misawa et al., 2005). More recently, TMS was applied in a combination of a short ''priming'' high frequency (up to 100 Hz) and longer runs of low-frequency stimulations (1 Hz) at 90-100% of the motor threshold in seven other patients with simple-partial status, with mixed results (Rotenberg et al., 2009). Paradoxically at first glance, electroconvulsive treatment may be found in cases of extremely resistant RSE. A recent case report illustrates its use in an adult patient with convulsive status, with three sessions (three convulsions each) carried out over 3 days, resulting in a moderate recovery; the mechanism is believed to be related to modification of the synaptic release of neurotransmitters (Cline & Roos, 2007). Therapeutic hypothermia, which is increasingly used in postanoxic patients (Oddo et al., 2008), has been the object of a recent case series in RSE (Corry et al., 2008). Reduction of energy demand, excitatory neurotransmission, and neuroprotective effects may account for the putative mechanism of action. Four adult patients in RSE were cooled to 31_-34_C with an endovascular system for up to 90 h, and then passively rewarmed over 2-50 h. Seizures were controlled in two patients, one of whom died; also one of the other two patients in whom seizures continued subsequently deceased. Possible side effects are related to acid-base and electrolyte disturbances, and coagulation dysfunction including thrombosis, infectious risks, cardiac arrhythmia, and paralytic ileus (Corry et al., 2008; Cereda et al., 2009). Finally, anecdotic evidence suggests that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-air exchange may induce some transitory benefit in RSE (Kohrmann et al., 2006); although this approach was already in use in the middle of the twentieth century, the mechanism is unknown. Acknowledgment A wide spectrum of pharmacologic (sedating and nonsedating) and nonpharmacologic (surgical, or involving electrical stimulation) regimens might be applied to attempt RSE control. Their use should be considered only after refractoriness to AED or anesthetics displaying a higher level of evidence. Although it seems unlikely that these uncommon and scarcely studied strategies will influence the RSE outcome in a decisive way, some may be interesting in particular settings. However, because the main prognostic determinant in status epilepticus appears to be related to the underlying etiology rather than to the treatment approach (Rossetti et al., 2005, 2008), the safety issue should always represent a paramount concern for the prescribing physician. Conclusion The author confirms that he has read the Journal's position on issues involved in ethical publication and affirms that this paper is consistent with those guidelines.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statins in primary prevention comparing different strategies

Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. It is unclear which risk algorithm and guidelines should be used in European populations. Using data from a population-based study in Switzerland, we first assessed 10-year CHD risk and eligibility for statins in 5,683 women and men 35 to 75 years of age without cardiovascular disease by comparing recommendations by the European Society of Cardiology without and with extrapolation of risk to age 60 years, the International Atherosclerosis Society, and the US Adult Treatment Panel III. The proportions of participants classified as high-risk for CHD were 12.5% (15.4% with extrapolation), 3.0%, and 5.8%, respectively. Proportions of participants eligible for statins were 9.2% (11.6% with extrapolation), 13.7%, and 16.7%, respectively. Assuming full compliance to each guideline, expected relative decreases in CHD deaths in Switzerland over a 10-year period would be 16.4% (17.5% with extrapolation), 18.7%, and 19.3%, respectively; the corresponding numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 CHD death would be 285 (340 with extrapolation), 380, and 440, respectively. In conclusion, the proportion of subjects classified as high risk for CHD varied over a fivefold range across recommendations. Following the International Atherosclerosis Society and the Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations might prevent more CHD deaths at the cost of higher numbers needed to treat compared with European Society of Cardiology guidelines.