Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Methods and Findings We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations. Conclusions We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.

Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

Helicobacter pylori infection and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Several studies suggested an association between Helicobacter pylori infection and colorectal carcinoma or adenoma risk. However, different authors reported quite varying estimates. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies investigating this association and paid special attention to the possibility of publication bias and sources of heterogeneity between studies. Materials and METHODS: An extensive literature search and cross-referencing were performed to identify all published studies. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. The presence of possible publication bias was assessed using different statistical approaches. RESULTS: In a meta-analysis of the 11 identified human studies, published between 1991 and 2002, a summary odds ratio of 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.8) was estimated for the association between H. pylori infection and colorectal cancer risk. The graphical funnel plot appeared asymmetrical, but the formal statistical evaluations did not provide strong evidence of publication bias. The proportion of variation of study results because of heterogeneity was small (36.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our meta-analysis are consistent with a possible small increase in risk of colorectal cancer because of H. pylori infection. However, the possibility of some publication bias cannot be ruled out, although it could not be statistically confirmed. Larger, better designed and better controlled studies are needed to clarify the situation.

RISK OF SHUNT-DEPENDENT HYDROCEPHALUS AFTER OCCLUSION OF RUPTURED INTRACRANIAL ANEURYSMS BY SURGICAL CLIPPING OR ENDOVASCULAR COILING: A SINGLE-INSTITUTION SERIES AND META-ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus after treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms by clipping versus coiling. METHODS: We analyzed 596 patients prospectively added to our database from July of 1999 to November of 2005 concerning the risk of shunt dependency after clipping versus coiling. Factors analyzed included age; sex; Hunt and Hess grade; Fisher grade; acute hydrocephalus; intraventricular hemorrhage; angiographic vasospasm; and number, size, and location of aneurysms. In addition, a meta-analysis of available data from the literature was performed identifying four studies with quantitative data on the frequency of clip, coil, and shunt dependency. RESULTS: The institutional series revealed Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher grade, acute hydrocephalus, intraventricular hemorrhage, and angiographic vasospasm as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors for shunt dependency after a univariate analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we isolated intraventricular hemorrhage, acute hydrocephalus, and angiographic vasospasm as independent, significant risk factors for shunt dependency. The meta-analysis, including the current data, revealed a significantly higher risk for shunt dependency after coiling than after clipping (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Clipping of a ruptured aneurysm may be associated with a lower risk for developing shunt dependency, possibly by clot removal. This might influence long-term outcome and surgical decision making.

Lifestyle factors and colorectal cancer risk (1): systematic review and meta-analysis of associations with body mass index

OBJECTIVE: Excess body weight, defined by body mass index (BMI), may increase the risk of colorectal cancer. As a prerequisite to the determination of lifestyle attributable risks, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies to quantify colorectal cancer risk associated with increased BMI and explore for differences by gender, sub-site and study characteristics. METHOD: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (to December 2007), and other sources, selecting reports based on strict inclusion criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates were performed to determine the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI. RESULTS: We analysed 29 datasets from 28 articles, including 67,361 incident cases. Higher BMI was associated with colon (RR 1.24, 95% CIs: 1.20-1.28) and rectal (1.09, 1.05-1.14) cancers in men, and with colon cancer (1.09, 1.04-1.12) in women. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (P < 0.001) and rectal (P = 0.005) cancers. Associations were generally consistent across geographic populations. Study characteristics and adjustments accounted for only moderate variations of associations. CONCLUSION: Increasing BMI is associated with a modest increased risk of developing colon and rectal cancers, but this modest risk may translate to large attributable proportions in high-prevalence obese populations. Inter-gender differences point to potentially important mechanistic differences, which merit further research.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures conflict. PURPOSE To assess the risk for hip and nonspine fractures associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction among prospective cohorts. DATA SOURCES Search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946 to 16 March 2014) and reference lists of retrieved articles without language restriction. STUDY SELECTION Two physicians screened and identified prospective cohorts that measured thyroid function and followed participants to assess fracture outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION One reviewer extracted data using a standardized protocol, and another verified data. Both reviewers independently assessed methodological quality of the studies. DATA SYNTHESIS The 7 population-based cohorts of heterogeneous quality included 50,245 participants with 1966 hip and 3281 nonspine fractures. In random-effects models that included the 5 higher-quality studies, the pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism versus euthyrodism were 1.38 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.07) for hip fractures and 1.20 (CI, 0.83 to 1.72) for nonspine fractures without statistical heterogeneity (P = 0.82 and 0.52, respectively; I2= 0%). Pooled estimates for the 7 cohorts were 1.26 (CI, 0.96 to 1.65) for hip fractures and 1.16 (CI, 0.95 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures. When thyroxine recipients were excluded, the HRs for participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism were 2.16 (CI, 0.87 to 5.37) for hip fractures and 1.43 (CI, 0.73 to 2.78) for nonspine fractures. For participants with subclinical hypothyroidism, HRs from higher-quality studies were 1.12 (CI, 0.83 to 1.51) for hip fractures and 1.04 (CI, 0.76 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures (P for heterogeneity = 0.69 and 0.88, respectively; I2 = 0%). LIMITATIONS Selective reporting cannot be excluded. Adjustment for potential common confounders varied and was not adequately done across all studies. CONCLUSION Subclinical hyperthyroidism might be associated with an increased risk for hip and nonspine fractures, but additional large, high-quality studies are needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Swiss National Science Foundation.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE Associations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking. OBJECTIVE To assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures. DATA EXTRACTION Individual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L), and subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.50-19.99 mIU/L) with normal thyroxine concentrations. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was hip fracture. Any fractures, nonspine fractures, and clinical spine fractures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS Among 70,298 participants, 4092 (5.8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2219 (3.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During 762,401 person-years of follow-up, hip fracture occurred in 2975 participants (4.6%; 12 studies), any fracture in 2528 participants (9.0%; 8 studies), nonspine fracture in 2018 participants (8.4%; 8 studies), and spine fracture in 296 participants (1.3%; 6 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism was 1.36 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.13-1.64; 146 events in 2082 participants vs 2534 in 56,471); for any fracture, HR was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.06-1.53; 121 events in 888 participants vs 2203 in 25,901); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.95-1.41; 107 events in 946 participants vs 1745 in 21,722); and for spine fracture, HR was 1.51 (95% CI, 0.93-2.45; 17 events in 732 participants vs 255 in 20,328). Lower TSH was associated with higher fracture rates: for TSH of less than 0.10 mIU/L, HR was 1.61 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.21-2.15; 47 events in 510 participants); for any fracture, HR was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78; 44 events in 212 participants); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.96-2.71; 32 events in 185 participants); and for spine fracture, HR was 3.57 (95% CI, 1.88-6.78; 8 events in 162 participants). Risks were similar after adjustment for other fracture risk factors. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (excluding thyroid medication users) was associated with HRs of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.19-1.93) for hip fracture, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.16-1.74) for any fracture, and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.01-2.99) for spine fracture. No association was found between subclinical hypothyroidism and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with an increased risk of hip and other fractures, particularly among those with TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L and those with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism. Further study is needed to determine whether treating subclinical hyperthyroidism can prevent fractures.

Validation of the burn-up code EVOLCODE 2.0 with PWR experimental data and with a Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis

A validation of the burn-up simulation system EVOLCODE 2.0 is presented here, involving the experimental measurement of U and Pu isotopes and some fission fragments production ratios after a burn-up of around 30 GWd/tU in a Pressurized Light Water Reactor (PWR). This work provides an in-depth analysis of the validation results, including the possible sources of the uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis based on the sensitivity methodology has been also performed, providing the uncertainties in the isotopic content propagated from the cross sections uncertainties. An improvement of the classical Sensitivity/ Uncertainty (S/U) model has been developed to take into account the implicit dependence of the neutron flux normalization, that is, the effect of the constant power of the reactor. The improved S/U methodology, neglected in this kind of studies, has proven to be an important contribution to the explanation of some simulation-experiment discrepancies for which, in general, the cross section uncertainties are, for the most relevant actinides, an important contributor to the simulation uncertainties, of the same order of magnitude and sometimes even larger than the experimental uncertainties and the experiment- simulation differences. Additionally, some hints for the improvement of the JEFF3.1.1 fission yield library and for the correction of some errata in the experimental data are presented.

Contributions to Physics-Based Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Australian data and meta-analysis lend support for alpha-synuclein (NACP-Rep1) as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease

It remains unclear whether genetic variants in SNCA (the alpha-synuclein gene) alter risk for sporadic Parkinson's disease (PD). The polymorphic mixed sequence repeat (NACP-Rep I) in the promoter region of SNCA has been previously examined as a potential susceptibility factor for PD with conflicting results. We report genotype and allele distributions at this locus from 369 PD cases and 370 control subjects of European Australian ancestry, with alleles designated as -1, 0, +1, +2, and +3 as previously described. Allele frequencies designated (0) were less common in Australian cases compared to controls (OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.62-1.03). Combined analysis including all previously published ancestral European Rep1 data yielded a highly significant association between the 0 allele and a reduced risk for PD (OR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.89, p = 0.0001). Further study must now proceed to examine in detail this interesting and biologically plausible genetic association. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Reducing the risk of sexually transmitted infections in genitourinary medicine clinic patients:A systematic review and meta-analysis of behavioural interventions

Objectives: Are behavioural interventions effective in reducing the rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic patients? Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles. Data sources: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Cochrane Library Controlled Clinical Trials Register, National Research Register (1966 to January 2004). Review methods: Randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions in sexual health clinic patients were included if they reported change to STI rates or self reported sexual behaviour. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad score and results pooled using random effects meta-analyses where outcomes were consistent across studies. Results: 14 trials were included; 12 based in the United States. Experimental interventions were heterogeneous and most control interventions were more structured than typical UK care. Eight trials reported data on laboratory confirmed infections, of which four observed a greater reduction in their intervention groups (in two cases this result was statistically significant, p<0.05). Seven trials reported consistent condom use, of which six observed a greater increase among their intervention subjects. Results for other measures of sexual behaviour were inconsistent. Success in reducing STIs was related to trial quality, use of social cognition models, and formative research in the target population. However, effectiveness was not related to intervention format or length. Conclusions: While results were heterogeneous, several trials observed reductions in STI rates. The most effective interventions were developed through extensive formative research. These findings should encourage further research in the United Kingdom where new approaches to preventing STIs are urgently required.

A hybrid measurement systems analysis and uncertainty of measurement approach for industrial measurement in the light controlled factory

The uncertainty of measurements must be quantified and considered in order to prove conformance with specifications and make other meaningful comparisons based on measurements. While there is a consistent methodology for the evaluation and expression of uncertainty within the metrology community industry frequently uses the alternative Measurement Systems Analysis methodology. This paper sets out to clarify the differences between uncertainty evaluation and MSA and presents a novel hybrid methodology for industrial measurement which enables a correct evaluation of measurement uncertainty while utilising the practical tools of MSA. In particular the use of Gage R&R ANOVA and Attribute Gage studies within a wider uncertainty evaluation framework is described. This enables in-line measurement data to be used to establish repeatability and reproducibility, without time consuming repeatability studies being carried out, while maintaining a complete consideration of all sources of uncertainty and therefore enabling conformance to be proven with a stated level of confidence. Such a rigorous approach to product verification will become increasingly important in the era of the Light Controlled Factory with metrology acting as the driving force to achieve the right first time and highly automated manufacture of high value large scale products such as aircraft, spacecraft and renewable power generation structures.

Néhány megjegyzés a kockázat, bizonytalanság, valószínűség kérdéséhez (Some remarks about uncertainty, risk and probability)

A címben említett három fogalom a közgazdasági elméletben központi szerepet foglal el. Ezek viszonya elsősorban a közgazdaságtudományi megismerés határait feszegeti. Mit tudunk a gazdasági döntésekről? Milyen információk alapján születnek a döntések? Lehet-e a gazdasági döntéseket „tudományos” alapra helyezni? A bizonytalanság kérdéséről az 1920-as években való megjelenése óta mindent elmondtak. Megvizsgálták a kérdést filozófiailag, matematikailag. Tárgyalták a kérdés számtalan elméleti és gyakorlati aspektusát. Akkor miért kell sokadszorra is foglalkozni a témával? A válasz igen egyszerű: azért, mert a kérdés minden szempontból ténylegesen alapvető, és mindenkor releváns. Úgy hírlik, hogy a római diadalmenetekben a győztes szekerén mindig volt egy rabszolga is, aki folyamatosan figyelmeztette a diadaltól megmámorosodott vezért, hogy ő is csak egy ember, ezt ne feledje el. A gazdasági döntéshozókat hasonló módon újra és újra figyelmeztetni kell arra, hogy a gazdasági döntések a bizonytalanság jegyében születnek. A gazdasági folyamatok megérthetőségének és kontrollálhatóságának van egy igen szoros korlátja. Ezt a korlátot a folyamatok inherens bizonytalansága adja. A gazdasági döntéshozók fülébe folyamatosan duruzsolni kell: ők is csak emberek, és ezért ismereteik igen korlátozottak. A „bátor” döntések során az eredmény bizonytalan, a tévedés azonban bizonyosra vehető. / === / In the article the author presents some remarks on the application of probability theory in financial decision making. From mathematical point of view the risk neutral measures used in finance are some version of separating hyperplanes used in optimization theory and in general equilibrium theory. Therefore they are just formally a probabilities. They interpretation as probabilities are misleading analogies leading to wrong decisions.