Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Cellular biomarkers to elucidate global warming effects on Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri

Global warming is a reality and its effects have been widely studied. However, the consequences for marine invertebrates remain poorly understood. Thus, the present study proposed to evaluate the effect of elevated temperature on the innate immune system of Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri. Sea urchins were collected nearby Brazilian Antarctic Station "Comandante Ferraz" and exposed to 0 (control), 2 and 4A degrees C for periods of 48 h, 2, 7 and 14 days. After the experimental periods, coelomic fluid was collected in order to perform the following analyses: coelomocytes differential counting, phagocytic response, adhesion and spreading coelomocytes assay, intranuclear iron crystalloid and ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes. The red sphere cell was considered a biomarker for heat stress, as they increased in acute stress. Besides that, a significant increase in phagocytic indexes was observed at 2A degrees C coinciding with a significant increase of intranuclear iron crystalloid at the same temperature and same time period. Furthermore, significant alterations in cell adhesion and spreading were observed in elevated temperatures. The ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes showed no significant difference across treatments. This was the first time that innate immune response alterations were observed in response to elevated temperature in a Polar echinoid.

Strategies and procedures for the development of intermodal freight transport in Europe: the role of motorways of the sea services and railway terminals

Since the birth of the European Union on 1957, the development of a single market through the integration of national freight transport networks has been one of the most important points in the European Union agenda. Increasingly congested motorways, rising oil prices and concerns about environment and climate change require the optimization of transport systems and transport processes. The best solution should be the intermodal transport, in which the most efficient transport options are used for the different legs of transport. This thesis examines the problem of defining innovative strategies and procedures for the sustainable development of intermodal freight transport in Europe. In particular, the role of maritime transport and railway transport in the intermodal chain are examined in depth, as these modes are recognized to be environmentally friendly and energy efficient. Maritime transport is the only mode that has kept pace with the fast growth in road transport, but it is necessary to promote the full exploitation of it by involving short sea shipping as an integrated service in the intermodal door-to-door supply chain and by improving port accessibility. The role of Motorways of the Sea services as part of the Trans-European Transport Network is is taken into account: a picture of the European policy and a state of the art of the Italian Motorways of the Sea system are reported. Afterwards, the focus shifts from line to node problems: the role of intermodal railway terminals in the transport chain is discussed. In particular, the last mile process is taken into account, as it is crucial in order to exploit the full capacity of an intermodal terminal. The difference between the present last mile planning models of Bologna Interporto and Verona Quadrante Europa is described and discussed. Finally, a new approach to railway intermodal terminal planning and management is introduced, by describing the case of "Terminal Gate" at Verona Quadrante Europa. Some proposals to favour the integrate management of "Terminal Gate" and the allocation of its capacity are drawn up.

Regulation of Spec genes in aboral ectoderm cells of sea urchin {\it Strongylocentrotus purpuratus}

The Spec genes of the sea urchin Stronylocentrotus purpuratus serves as an excellent model for studying cell type-specific gene expression during early embryogenesis. The Spec1/Spec2 genes encode cytosolic calcium-binding proteins related to the calmodulin/troponin C/myosin light chain superfamily. Members of the Spec gene family are activated shortly after the sixth cleavage as the lineage-specific founder cells giving rise to aboral ectoderm are established, and the accumulation of the Spec mRNAs is limited exclusively to aboral ectoderm cell lineages. In this dissertation, the transcriptional regulation of the Spec genes was studied. Sequence comparisons of the Spec gene 5$\sp\prime$ flanking regions showed that a DNA block of approximately 800 bp from the 3$\sp\prime$ end of the first exon to the 5$\sp\prime$ end of a repetitive DNA element, termed RSR, was highly conserved. In Spec2a, the conserved region was a continuous stretch of DNA, but in Spec1 and Spec2c, DNA insertions interrupt the conserved sequence block and alter the relative placement of the RSR element and other 5$\sp\prime$ flanking DNA. Thus, drastic rearrangements have occurred within the putative control regions of the Spec genes. In vivo expression experiments using the sea urchin embryo gene-transfer system showed that while the 5$\sp\prime$ flanking regions of all three Spec genes conferred proper temporal activation to the reporter CAT gene, only the Spec2a 5$\sp\prime$ flanking region could restrict lacZ gene expression to aboral ectoderm cells. However, the Spec2a conserved region alone was not sufficient to confer proper spatial expression, suggesting that negative spatial elements are also associated with the proper activation of Spec2a. A major positive regulatory region, defined as the RSR enhancer, was identified between base pairs $-$631 and $-$443 on Spec2a. The RSR enhancer was essential for maximal activity and conferred preferential aboral ectoderm expression to a lacZ reporter gene. DNaseI footprinting and band-shift analysis of the RSR enhancer revealed multiple DNA-elements. One of the elements, an A/T-rich sequence called the A/T palindrome was studied in detail. This element binds a single 45-kDa nuclear protein, the A/T palindrome binding protein (A/TBP), whose DNA-binding specificity suggests a possible relationship with the bicoid-class homeodomain proteins. Mutated A/T palindromes are incapable of binding the 45-kDa protein and lower promoter activity by 8-fold. DNA-binding activity for A/TBP is low in unfertilized eggs, increases by the 16-cell stage and continues rising in blastulae. These data suggest that A/TBP plays a major role in the activation of the Spec2a gene in aboral ectoderm cells. ^

(Table 4) Mesozoolpankton abundance and biomass and relative percentage of key zooplankton groups along the Bulgarian coast, Black Sea

Results of studies during Project of an international expedition onboard R/V Vladimir Parshin in September-October 2005 are presented. Intensive development of Bacillariophyceae and Dynophyceae was recorded in coastal waters of Bulgaria, Turkey, and in the Danube River delta during period of investigations. Increase in algae population was accompanied by rising of chlorophyll a concentration up to 2.0-5.5 µg/l. In the deep water region it did not exceed 0.5 µg/l. Phytoplankton growth rate in the surface water layer varied from 0.1 to 1.0 1/day. This parameter and NO2+NO3 concentration, as well as the silicon concentration were correlative, as was described by the Michaelis-Menten equation. Phytoplankton growth was affected by basic nutrients. Zooplankton grazing varied from 0.10 to 0.69 1/day and average values in different regions varied by 1.5 times. Microalgae size range is one of major factors of grazing regulation. Rate of phytoplankton consumption was decreasing with increasing the largest diatom Pseudosolenia calcar-avis impact on total biomass of nano- and microphytoplankton.

Effects of ocean acidification caused by rising CO2 on the early development of three mollusks

Increasing atmospheric CO2 can decrease seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the larval survival of calcareous animals. In this study, we simulated future atmospheric CO2 concentrations (800, 1500, 2000 and 3000 ppm) and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of 3 mollusks (the abalones Haliotis diversicolor and H. discus hannai and the oyster Crassostrea angulata). We showed that fertilization rate, hatching rate, larval shell length, trochophore development, veliger survival and metamorphosis all decreased significantly at different pCO2 levels (except oyster hatching). H. discus hannai were more tolerant of high CO2 compared to H. diversicolor. At 2000 ppm CO2, 79.2% of H. discus hannai veliger larvae developed normally, but only 13.3% of H. diversicolor veliger larvae. Tolerance of C. angulata to ocean acidification was greater than the 2 abalone species; 50.5% of its D-larvae developed normally at 3000 ppm CO2. This apparent resistance of C. angulata to ocean acidification may be attributed to their adaptability to estuarine environments. Mechanisms underlying the resistance to ocean acidification of both abalones requires further investigation. Our results suggest that ocean acidification may decrease the yield of these 3 economically important shellfish if increasing CO2 is a future trend.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, thickness and carbonate elemental composition of the test of juvenile sea urchins in a laboratory experiment

Ocean surface CO2 levels are increasing in line with rising atmospheric CO2 and could exceed 900 µatm by year 2100, with extremes above 2000 µatm in some coastal habitats. The imminent increase in ocean pCO2 is predicted to have negative consequences for marine fishes, including reduced aerobic performance, but variability among species could be expected. Understanding interspecific responses to ocean acidification is important for predicting the consequences of ocean acidification on communities and ecosystems. In the present study, the effects of exposure to near-future seawater CO2 (860 µatm) on resting (M O2rest) and maximum (M O2max) oxygen consumption rates were determined for three tropical coral reef fish species interlinked through predator-prey relationships: juvenile Pomacentrus moluccensis and Pomacentrus amboinensis, and one of their predators: adult Pseudochromis fuscus. Contrary to predictions, one of the prey species, P. amboinensis, displayed a 28-39% increase in M O2max after both an acute and four-day exposure to near-future CO2 seawater, while maintaining M O2rest. By contrast, the same treatment had no significant effects on M O2rest or M O2max of the other two species. However, acute exposure of P. amboinensis to 1400 and 2400 µatm CO2 resulted in M O2max returning to control values. Overall, the findings suggest that: (1) the metabolic costs of living in a near-future CO2 seawater environment were insignificant for the species examined at rest; (2) the M O2max response of tropical reef species to near-future CO2 seawater can be dependent on the severity of external hypercapnia; and (3) near-future ocean pCO2 may not be detrimental to aerobic scope of all fish species and it may even augment aerobic scope of some species. The present results also highlight that close phylogenetic relatedness and living in the same environment, does not necessarily imply similar physiological responses to near-future CO2.

Giant clams and rising CO2: light may ameliorate effects of ocean acidification on a solar-powered animal

Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 µatm) and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 µmol photons/m**2/s). Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 µatm) reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation) in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

Seasonality in pH and temperature for shallow zones of the Bering Sea from measurements of coral Clathromorphum nereostratum

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are potentially affecting marine ecosystems twofold, by warming and acidification. The rising amount of CO2 taken up by the ocean lowers the saturation state of calcium carbonate, complicating the formation of this key biomineral used by many marine organisms to build hard parts like skeletons or shells. Reliable time-series data of seawater pH are needed to evaluate the ongoing change and compare long-term trends and natural variability. For the high-latitude ocean, the region facing the strongest CO2 uptake, such time-series data are so far entirely lacking. Our study provides, to our knowledge, the first reconstruction of seasonal cycle and long-term trend in pH for a high-latitude ocean obtained from 2D images of stable boron isotopes from a coralline alga.

European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax, in a changing ocean

Ocean acidification, caused by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), is widely considered to be a major global threat to marine ecosystems. To investigate the potential effects of ocean acidification on the early life stages of a commercially important fish species, European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), 12 000 larvae were incubated from hatch through metamorphosis under a matrix of two temperatures (17 and 19 °C) and two seawater pCO2 levels (ambient and 1,000 µatm) and sampled regularly for 42 days. Calculated daily mortality was significantly affected by both temperature and pCO2, with both increased temperature and elevated pCO2 associated with lower daily mortality and a significant interaction between these two factors. There was no significant pCO2 effect noted on larval morphology during this period but larvae raised at 19 °C possessed significantly larger eyes and lower carbon:nitrogen ratios at the end of the study compared to those raised under 17 °C. Similarly, when the incubation was continued to post-metamorphic (juvenile) animals (day 67-69), fish raised under a combination of 19 °C and 1000 µatm pCO2 were significantly heavier. However, juvenile D. labrax raised under this combination of 19 °C and 1000 µatm pCO2 also exhibited lower aerobic scopes than those incubated at 19 °C and ambient pCO2. Most studies investigating the effects of near-future oceanic conditions on the early life stages of marine fish have used incubations of relatively short durations and suggested that these animals are resilient to ocean acidification. Whilst the increased survival and growth observed in this study supports this view, we conclude that more work is required to investigate whether the differences in juvenile physiology observed in this study manifest as negative impacts in adult fish.

On the steric and mass-induced contributions to the annual sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea

The sea level variation (SLVtotal) is the sum of two major contributions: steric and mass-induced. The steric SLVsteric is that resulting from the thermal and salinity changes in a given water column. It only involves volume change, hence has no gravitational effect. The mass-induced SLVmass, on the other hand, arises from adding or subtracting water mass to or from the water column and has direct gravitational signature. We examine the closure of the seasonal SLV budget and estimate the relative importance of the two contributions in the Mediterranean Sea as a function of time. We use ocean altimetry data (from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, ERS, and ENVISAT missions) to estimate SLVtotal, temperature, and salinity data (from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean ocean model) to estimate SLVsteric, and time variable gravity data (from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Project, April 2002 to July 2004) to estimate SLVmass. We find that the annual cycle of SLVtotal in the Mediterranean is mainly driven by SLVsteric but moderately offset by SLVmass. The agreement between the seasonal SLVmass estimations from SLVtotal – SLVsteric and from GRACE is quite remarkable; the annual cycle reaches the maximum value in mid-February, almost half a cycle later than SLVtotal or SLVsteric, which peak by mid-October and mid-September, respectively. Thus, when sea level is rising (falling), the Mediterranean Sea is actually losing (gaining) mass. Furthermore, as SLVmass is balanced by vertical (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) and horizontal (exchange of water with the Atlantic, Black Sea, and river runoff) mass fluxes, we compared it with the P–E determined from meteorological data to estimate the annual cycle of the horizontal flux.

Growth and carbon metabolism of the seaweed Fucus vesiculosus in the western Baltic Sea ("Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms")

Warming and acidification of the oceans as a consequence of increasing CO2-concentrations occur at large scales. Numerous studies have shown the impact of single stressors on individual species. However, studies on the combined effect of multiple stressors on a multi-species assemblage, which is ecologically much more realistic and relevant, are still scarce. Therefore, we orthogonally crossed the two factors warming and acidification in mesocosm experiments and studied their single and combined impact on the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus associated with its natural community (epiphytes and mesograzers) in the Baltic Sea in all seasons (from April 2013 to April 2014). We superimposed our treatment factors onto the natural fluctuations of all environmental variables present in the Benthocosms in so-called delta-treatments. Thereby we compared the physiological responses of F. vesiculosus (growth and metabolites) to the single and combined effects of natural Kiel Fjord temperatures and pCO2 conditions with a 5 °C temperature increase and/or pCO2 increase treatment (1100 ppm in the headspace above the mesocosms). Responses were also related to the factor photoperiod which changes over the course of the year. Our results demonstrate complex seasonal pattern. Elevated pCO2 positively affected growth of F. vesiculosus alone and/or interactively with warming. The response direction (additive, synergistic or antagonistic), however, depended on season and daylength. The effects were most obvious when plants were actively growing during spring and early summer. Our study revealed for the first time that it is crucial to always consider the impact of variable environmental conditions throughout all seasons. In summary, our study indicates that in future F. vesiculosus will be more affected by detrimental summer heat-waves than by ocean acidification although the latter consequently enhances growth throughout the year. The mainly negative influence of rising temperatures on the physiology of this keystone macroalga may alter and/or hamper its ecological functions in the shallow coastal ecosystem of the Baltic Sea.

Physical and chemical properties, 14C ages and palynology of sediment cores from the Western Baltic Sea

Sea level related radiocarbon, palynological and stratigraphical data from sediment cores in the Western Baltic have been tested against the existing sea level curves for the region. The relative sea level rise curves for the beginning of the Holocene show no significant deviations between the Kiel, Mecklenburg und Lübeck Bays and hence do not support the previously reported differences in the averaged regional subsidence rates for this time interval. Local subsidence and upheaval due to salt tectonics probably played a greater role than previously suspected in the region. The sea level possibly stagnated around -28 m during the early Holocene before rising very rapidly to -14 m. The submarine terraces at -30 m and perhaps also at -27 m were formed during the lacustrine phase of the Western Baltic when the water levels were controlled by the main thresholds in the Great Belt.

Biogenic opal estimation of deep-sea sediment cores from the Scotia Sea

We present biogenic opal flux records from two deep-sea sites in the Scotia Sea (MD07-3133 and MD07-3134) at decadal-scale resolution, covering the last glacial cycle. Besides conventional and time-consuming biogenic opal measuring methods, we introduce new biogenic opal estimation methods derived from sediment colour b*, wet bulk density, Si/Ti-count ratio, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS). All methods capture the biogenic opal amplitude, however, FTIRS - a novel method for marine sediment - yields the most reliable results. 230Th normalization data show strong differences in sediment focusing with intensified sediment focusing during glacial times. At MD07-3134 230Th normalized biogenic opal fluxes vary between 0.2 and 2.5 g/cm2/kyr. Our biogenic opal flux records indicate bioproductivity changes in the Southern Ocean, strongly influenced by sea ice distribution and also summer sea surface temperature changes. South of the Antarctic Polar Front, lowest bioproductivity occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum when upwelling of mid-depth water was reduced and sea ice cover intensified. Around 17 ka, bioproductivity increased abruptly, corresponding to rising atmospheric CO2 contents and decreasing seasonal sea ice coverage.