STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

NetCodCCN: a Network Coding approach for Content-Centric Networks

Content-Centric Networking (CCN) naturally supports multi-path communication, as it allows the simultaneous use of multiple interfaces (e.g. LTE and WiFi). When multiple sources and multiple clients are considered, the optimal set of distribution trees should be determined in order to optimally use all the available interfaces. This is not a trivial task, as it is a computationally intense procedure that should be done centrally. The need for central coordination can be removed by employing network coding, which also offers improved resiliency to errors and large throughput gains. In this paper, we propose NetCodCCN, a protocol for integrating network coding in CCN. In comparison to previous works proposing to enable network coding in CCN, NetCodCCN permit Interest aggregation and Interest pipelining, which reduce the data retrieval times. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed protocol leads to significant improvements in terms of content retrieval delay compared to the original CCN. Our results demonstrate that the use of network coding adds robustness to losses and permits to exploit more efficiently the available network resources. The performance gains are verified for content retrieval in various network scenarios.

The Relationship Among Resilience, Forgiveness, and Anger Expression in Adolescents

This study was designed to investigate and describe the relationship among resilience, forgiveness and anger expression in adolescents. The purpose of the study was to explore whether certain adolescent resiliencies significantly related to positive or negative affective, behavioral, or cognitive levels of forgiveness and certain types of anger expression in adolescents. This study also investigated whether there were certain adolescent resiliencies and types of forgiveness that can predict lower levels of negative anger expression in adolescents. This research was built on two conceptual models: Wolin and Wolin's (1993) Challenge Model and the Forgiveness Process Model (Enright & Human Development Study Group, 1991). It was based on a quantitative, single-subject correlational research design. A multiple regression analysis was also used to explore possible effects of resilience and forgiveness on anger expression in adolescents. In addition, two demographic variables, Age and Gender, were examined for possible effects on anger expression. Data were gathered from a convenience sample sample of 70 students in three Maine public high schools using three separate assessment instruments: the Adolescent Resiliency Attitudes Scale (ARAS), the Adolescent Version of the Enright Forgiveness Inventory (EFI), and the Adolescent Anger Rating Scale (AARS). Correlational analyses were done on the scales and subscales of these surveys. Significant relationships were found between several adolescent resiliencies and forms of forgiveness as well as between some adolescent resiliencies and types of anger expression. The data indicated that Total Resiliency significantly correlated with Total Forgiveness as well as Total Anger. The findings also identified particular adolescent resiliencies that significantly predicted types of anger expression, while forgiveness did not predict types of anger expression. The data revealed that Age and Gender had no significant affect on anger expression. These findings suggest that the constructs of adolescent resilience and forgiveness have commonalities that can influence how adolescents express anger, and further suggest that intervention and prevention programs expand their focus to incorporate forgiveness skills. The findings from this study can provide critical information to counselors, therapists, and other helping professionals working with adolescents, on approaches to designing and implementing therapy modalities or developmental school guidance programs for adolescents.

An assessment of post-disaster psychological stress in hazardous waste operations and emergency response (HAZWOPER) workers

Personnel involved in natural or man-made disaster response and recovery efforts may be exposed to a wide variety of physical and mental stressors that can exhibit long-lasting and detrimental psychopathological outcomes. In a disaster situation, huge numbers of "secondary" responders can be involved in contaminant clean-up and debris removal and can be at risk of developing stress-related mental health outcomes. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) worker training hierarchy typically required for response workers, known as "Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response" (HAZWOPER), does not address the mental health and safety concerns of workers. This study focused on the prevalence of traumatic stress experienced by secondary responders that had received or expressed interest in receiving HAZWOPER training through the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Worker Education and Training Program (NIEHS WETP). ^ The study involved the modification of two preexisting and validated survey tools to assess secondary responder awareness of physical, mental, and traumatic stressors on mental health and sought to determine if a need existed to include traumatic stress-related mental health education in the current HAZWOPER training regimen. The study evaluated post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resiliency, mental distress, and negative effects within a secondary responder population of 176 respondents. Elevated PTSD levels were seen in the study population as compared to a general responder population (32.9% positive vs. 8%-22.5% positive). Results indicated that HAZWOPER-trained disaster responders were likely to test positive for PTSD, whereas, untrained responders with no disaster experience and responders who possessed either training or disaster experience only were likely to test PTSD negative. A majority (68.75%) of the population tested below the mean resiliency to cope score (80.4) of the average worker population. Results indicated that those who were trained only or who possessed both training and disaster work experience were more likely to have lower resiliency scores than those with no training or experience. There were direct correlations between being PTSD positive and having worked at a disaster site and experiencing mental distress and negative effects. However, HAZWOPER training status does not significantly correlate with mental distress or negative effect. ^ The survey indicated clear support (91% of respondents) for mental health education. The development of a pre- and post-deployment training module is recommended. Such training could provide responders with the necessary knowledge and skills to recognize the symptomology of PTSD, mental stressors, and physical and traumatic stressors, thus empowering them to employ protective strategies or seek professional help if needed. It is further recommended that pre-deployment mental health education be included in the current HAZWOPER 24- and 40-hour course curriculums, as well as, consideration be given towards integrating a stand-alone post-deployment mental health education training course into the current HAZWOPER hierarchy.^

Diurnal and seasonal measurements of seawater chemistry, temperature and PAR in Hurricane Hole, U.S. Virgin Islands - 2010-2012

Risk analyses indicate that more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by climate change and local anthropogenic impacts by the year 2030 under "business-as-usual" climate scenarios. Increasing temperatures and solar radiation cause coral bleaching that has resulted in extensive coral mortality. Increasing carbon dioxide reduces seawater pH, slows coral growth, and may cause loss of reef structure. Management strategies include establishment of marine protected areas with environmental conditions that promote reef resiliency. However, few resilient reefs have been identified, and resiliency factors are poorly defined. Here we characterize the first natural, non-reef coral refuge from thermal stress and ocean acidification and identify resiliency factors for mangrove-coral habitats. We measured diurnal and seasonal variations in temperature, salinity, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and seawater chemistry; characterized substrate parameters; and examined water circulation patterns in mangrove communities where scleractinian corals are growing attached to and under mangrove prop roots in Hurricane Hole, St. John, US Virgin Islands. Additionally, we inventoried the coral species and quantified incidences of coral bleaching, mortality, and recovery for two major reef-building corals, Colpophyllia natans and Diploria labyrinthiformis, growing in mangrove-shaded and exposed (unshaded) areas. Over 30 species of scleractinian corals were growing in association with mangroves. Corals were thriving in low-light (more than 70% attenuation of incident PAR) from mangrove shading and at higher temperatures than nearby reef tract corals. A higher percentage of C. natans colonies were living shaded by mangroves, and no shaded colonies were bleached. Fewer D. labyrinthiformis colonies were shaded by mangroves, however more unshaded colonies were bleached. A combination of substrate and habitat heterogeneity, proximity of different habitat types, hydrographic conditions, and biological influences on seawater chemistry generate chemical conditions that buffer against ocean acidification. This previously undocumented refuge for corals provides evidence for adaptation of coastal organisms and ecosystem transition due to recent climate change. Identifying and protecting other natural, non-reef coral refuges is critical for sustaining corals and other reef species into the future.

Comparison of vibration and rolling noise emission of resilient and solid monobloc railway wheels in underground lines

Flat or worn wheels rolling on rough or corrugated tracks can provoke airborne noise and ground-borne vibration, which can be a serious concern for nearby neighbours of urban rail transit lines. Among the various treatments used to reduce vibration and noise, resilient wheels play an important role. In conventional resilient wheels, a slightly prestressed V­shaped rubber ring is mounted between the steel wheel centre and tyre. The elastic layer enhances rolling noise and vibration suppression, as well as impact reduction on the track. In this paper the effectiveness of resilient wheels in underground lines, in comparison to monobloc ones, is assessed. The analysed resilient wheel is able to carry greater loads than standard resilient wheels used for light vehicles. It also presents a greater radial resiliency and a higher axial stiffness than conventional V­wheels. The finite element method was used in this study. A quarter car model was defined, in which the wheelset was modelled as an elastic body. Several simulations were performed in order to assess the vibrational behaviour of elastic wheels, including modal, harmonic and random vibration analysis, the latter allowing the introduction of realistic vertical track irregularities, as well as the influence of the running speed. Due to numerical problems some simplifications were needed. Parametric variations were also performed, in which the sensitivity of the whole system to variations of rubber prestress and Poisson’s ratio of the elastic material was assessed.Results are presented in the frequency domain, showing a better performance of the resilient wheels for frequencies over 200 Hz. This result reveals the ability of the analyzed design to mitigate rolling noise, but not structural vibrations, which are primarily found in the lower frequency range.

Cryptographic properties of Boolean functions defining elementary cellular automata

In this work, the algebraic properties of the local transition functions of elementary cellular automata (ECA) were analysed. Specifically, a classification of such cellular automata was done according to their algebraic degree, the balancedness, the resiliency, nonlinearity, the propagation criterion and the existence of non-zero linear structures. It is shown that there is not any ECA satisfying all properties at the same time.

Secure optical networks based on quantum key distribution and weakly trusted repeaters

Abstract—In this paper we explore how recent technologies can improve the security of optical networks. In particular, we study how to use quantum key distribution(QKD) in common optical network infrastructures and propose a method to overcome its distance limitations. QKD is the first technology offering information theoretic secretkey distribution that relies only on the fundamental principles of quantum physics. Point-to-point QKDdevices have reached a mature industrial state; however, these devices are severely limited in distance, since signals at the quantum level (e.g., single photons) are highly affected by the losses in the communication channel and intermediate devices. To overcome this limitation, intermediate nodes (i.e., repeaters) are used. Both quantum-regime and trusted, classical repeaters have been proposed in the QKD literature, but only the latter can be implemented in practice. As a novelty, we propose here a new QKD network model based on the use of not fully trusted intermediate nodes, referred to as weakly trusted repeaters. This approach forces the attacker to simultaneously break several paths to get access to the exchanged key, thus improving significantly the security of the network. We formalize the model using network codes and provide real scenarios that allow users to exchange secure keys over metropolitan optical networks using only passive components. Moreover, the theoretical framework allows one to extend these scenarios not only to accommodate more complex trust constraints, but also to consider robustness and resiliency constraints on the network.

Future-Proofing: Seeking Resilience in the Historic Built Environment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Conservation of freshwater thermal habitats for Pacific salmon in a changing climate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Mindfulness practice moderates the relationship between craving and substance use in a clinical sample

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-05

RESILIÊNCIA: UM ESTUDO PARA A CAPTAÇÃO DA DIMENSÃO MAIS DINÂMICA E SUBJETIVA DOS FATORES DE PROTEÇÃO

Estudar resiliência é perguntar se o individuo é capaz de lidar com adversidades, superá-las e ainda se tornar melhor; a resposta é sempre sim. Mas, este contexto é subjetivo, pois a resposta será baseada na percepção do sujeito baseado numa resposta em termos de o que é certo responder frente a uma pergunta como esta. Isto posto, buscou-se pesquisar um grupo de profissionais que se encontravam num universo de mudanças e como estes significavam esta mudança; se como positiva, como isso era percebido, se como negativa como este fenômeno poderia ser nomeado. Foram realizadas entrevistas semi estruturadas objetivando aproximação do fenômeno resiliência, já que o objetivo da pesquisa foi explorar o fenômeno, dado que poucos estudos foram feitos no campo da resiliência com foco na psicologia positiva. É neste cenário que este trabalho insere-se. Investigar como adultos saudáveis reagem ao fenômeno resiliência, se os constructos denominados fatores de proteção e fatores de risco podem ser relacionados à resiliência e, se sim, como estes sujeitos irão responder a estes fatores. Este estudo fundamentou-se em teorias sobre resiliência e adversidades nos campos da Psicologia, da Administração e da Sociologia. Com a análise dos relatos e à luz dos achados da área, buscou-se discutir as possíveis relações entre resiliência e fatores protetores no contexto do trabalho em pessoas saudáveis física e socialmente. Apontam-se críticas ao estudo e possíveis contribuições dos achados para a administração. Por fim, vislumbram-se possibilidades deste estudo desdobrar-se em outros cenários organizacionais buscando aprofundar outros campos da organização sempre focado na resiliência e psicologia positiva por meio de uma analise subjetiva.

Dynamic simulation of chemical processes

This thesis describes the design and implementation of an interactive dynamic simulator called DASPRII. The starting point of this research has been an existing dynamic simulation package, DASP. DASPII is written in standard FORTRAN 77 and is implemented on universally available IBM-PC or compatible machines. It provides a means for the analysis and design of chemical processes. Industrial interest in dynamic simulation has increased due to the recent increase in concern over plant operability, resiliency and safety. DASPII is an equation oriented simulation package which allows solution of dynamic and steady state equations. The steady state can be used to initialise the dynamic simulation. A robust non linear algebraic equation solver has been implemented for steady state solution. This has increased the general robustness of DASPII, compared to DASP. A graphical front end is used to generate the process flowsheet topology from a user constructed diagram of the process. A conversational interface is used to interrogate the user with the aid of a database, to complete the topological information. An original modelling strategy implemented in DASPII provides a simple mechanism for parameter switching which creates a more flexible simulation environment. The problem description generated is by a further conversational procedure using a data-base. The model format used allows the same model equations to be used for dynamic and steady state solution. All the useful features of DASPI are retained in DASPII. The program has been demonstrated and verified using a number of example problems, Significant improvements using the new NLAE solver have been shown. Topics requiring further research are described. The benefits of variable switching in models has been demonstrated with a literature problem.

The Closed Loop Model by Regional Economics or How Big is the Ants’ Footprint?

The economy is communication between Man and Nature. It is an interaction-network between our outside and inside Nature, that is, the external Nature surrounding us and the internal nature expressing our human essence. Money is an institution of the society, an infrastructure that ensures division of labour, enables the flow of information and material between the participants. The concept of regional material and financial circular flow will be more important with the oncoming peak-oil and post-carbon era. We should describe in time the outlines of closed or semi-closed loops economy. The fundamentals of Input-Output will flourish once again; it could help us formulate the link between the efficiency and resiliency of a regional complex system.

A likviditási mutatószámok struktúrája (Structure of liquidity measures)

A likviditás mérésére többféle mutató terjedt el, amelyek a likviditás jelenségét különböző szempontok alapján számszerűsítik. A cikk a szakirodalom által javasolt, különféle likviditási mutatókat elemzi sokdimenziós statisztikai módszerekkel: főkomponens-elemzés segítségével keresünk olyan faktorokat, amelyek legjobban tömörítik a likviditási jellemzőket, majd megnézzük, hogy az egyes mutatók milyen mértékben mozognak együtt a faktorokkal, illetve a korrelációk alapján klaszterezési eljárással keresünk hasonló tulajdonságokkal bíró csoportokat. Arra keressük a választ, hogy a rendelkezésünkre álló minta elemzésével kialakított változócsoportok egybeesnek-e a likviditás egyes aspektusaihoz kapcsolt mutatókkal, valamint meghatározhatók-e olyan összetett likviditási mérőszámok, amelyeknek a segítségével a likviditás jelensége több dimenzióban mérhető. / === / Liquidity is measured from different aspects (e.g. tightness, depth, and resiliency) by different ratios. We studied the co-movements and the clustering of different liquidity measures on a sample of the Swiss stock market. We performed a PCA to obtain the main factors that explain the cross-sectional variability of liquidity measures, and we used the k-means clustering methodology to defi ne groups of liquidity measures. Based on our explorative data analysis, we formed clusters of liquidity measures, and we compared the resulting groups with the expectations and intuition. Our modelling methodology provides a framework to analyze the correlation between the different aspects of liquidity as well as a means to defi ne complex liquidity measures.