AASK - Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge: A database of human experience in evacuation, derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data in order to (a) identify the key processes and factors associated with evacuation, (b) quantify variables and parameters associated with the identified factors/processes and finally (c) validate the models. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise from three major data sources in order to address these issues. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from one of these sources - aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (aircraft accident statistics and knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK comprises four component sub-databases. These consist of the ACCIDENT (crash details), FLIGHT ATTENDANT (observations and actions of the flight attendants), FATALS (details concerning passenger fatalities) and PAX (observations and accounts from individual passengers) databases. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 4 April 1977 to 6 August 1995, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. In addition to aiding the development of aircraft evacuation models, AASK is also being used to challenge some of the myths which proliferate in the aviation safety industry such as, passenger exit selection during evacuation, nature and frequency of seat jumping, speed of passenger response and group dynamics. AASK can also be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive approach to conducting post accident interviews, and will eventually be used to store the data directly.

The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Simulating the interaction of cabin crew with passengers during aircraft emergency evacuation conditions

In this paper we briefly describe new modelling capabilities within the airEXODUS evacuation model. These new capabilities involve the explicit ability to simulate the interaction of crew with passengers in managing evacuation situations

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Micron-scale fast electron filaments and recirculation determined from rear-side optical emission in high-intensity laser-solid interactions

The transport of relativistic electrons generated in the interaction of petawatt class lasers with solid targets has been studied through measurements of the second harmonic optical emission from their rear surface. The high degree of polarization of the emission indicates that it is predominantly optical transition radiation (TR). A halo that surrounds the main region of emission is also polarized and is attributed to the effect of electron recirculation. The variation of the polarization state and intensity of radiation with the angle of observation indicates that the emission of TR is highly directional and provides evidence for the presence of mu m-size filaments. A brief discussion on the possible causes of such a fine electron beam structure is given.

Risk of fatal injury in older adult drivers, passengers, and pedestrians

Objectives To compare risk of fatal injury in elderly road users (drivers, passengers, pedestrians) with that of younger age groups and to assess the contribution of elderly road users to the number of reported fatalities in the population. Design Fatality age was categorized as 21 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, or 70 and older, and road user was categorized as driver, passenger, or pedestrian. Estimated number of trips made by each age group was used to adjust for exposure and to measure individual risk. Setting Fatalities recorded in Britain between 1989 and 2009. Participants Population-wide fatal injury counts in Britain. Measurements Age of fatally injured drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Estimated number of trips made per year by drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Results Risk of fatal injury, but not fatality numbers in the population, were higher for older adult (=70) drivers than for younger age groups. Risk of fatal injury was also high for older adult passengers and pedestrians, who represented the majority of older adult fatalities. Conclusion Previous emphasis on driver impairment in older age has unduly focussed attention on elderly drivers, who represent a minority of all driver fatalities. Older adults represent a much larger proportion of passenger and pedestrian fatalities. Additional policy schemes and initiatives should be targeted at safeguarding older adult passengers and making the road environment safer for elderly pedestrians. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

A static test method to assess swivel seat strength in frontal impact

Mechanical swivel seat adaptations are a key aftermarket disability modification to any small-to medium-sized passenger vehicle. However, the crashworthiness of these devices is currently unregulated and the existing 20g dynamic sled testing approach is prohibitively expensive for prototype assessment purposes. In this paper, an alternative quasi-static test method for swivel seat assessment is presented, and two different approaches (free-body diagram and multibody modelling) validated through published experimental data are developed to determine the appropriate loading conditions to apply in the quasi-static testing.Results show the two theoretical approaches can give similar results for estimating the quasi-static loading conditions, and this depends on the seatbelt configuration. Application of the approach to quasi-static testing of both conventional seats and those with integrated seat belts showed the approach to be successful and easy to apply. It is proposed that this method be used by swivel seat designers to assess new prototypes prior to final validation via the traditional 20g sled test.

The Effect of Seat Location in Lecture Theatres on Academic Performance

The purpose of this research study was to investigate and identify possible patterns relating to academic performance on the effects of university students self-selecting where to sit in a lecture theatre.
The key research questions are:
1. Does seating position affect student performance?
2. Do the most academically able and engaged students regularly sit at the front of lecture theatres?
Academic achievement
Preliminary results suggest significant assessment score differences between those that sit at the front and those that sit further the back. Of those that received a grade of 75%+ (Grade A) 6.67% regularly sat at the back. With the same group 46.67% regularly sat at the front. Of the group that scored less than 50% (Grade D) 0% of students regularly sat at the front. 12.50% regularly sat in the middle zones with 37.50% sitting at the back. It was also observed that the remaining numbers did not consistently sit in the same zone.

Temporal movement
There is little evidence of movement between seating zones of the Grade A group throughout the 24 week period. However there was considerable movement with the Grade D group. Although still under analysis there appears be a pattern of students in this group graduating towards the back seating positions over the course of the programme.

Engagement
The frequency of completed entries on PinPoint was also used as an indicator of engagement. With the Grade A group 75% of them regularly completed an entry whereas in the Grade D group this drops to less than 50%.
Further analysis on the attitudinal factors in relational to seating position and performance are ongoing, but preliminary results suggest that those students that scored highly in attitude tended to sit at the front and middle sections.
It would indeed appear that the more highly engaged and academically capable students voluntarily sit at the front for most lectures. Interestingly as the course progresses those who had lesser engagement and below average midterm results tend to began to sit progressively toward the back. If this is a repeatable pattern then a linear regression analysis of the seating positions and midterm results could help predict students in danger of failing.

Old conflicts, new rivals? Airline competition in the European market

Christoph Franz of Lufthansa recently identified Ryanair, easyJet, Air Berlin and Emirates as the company’s main competitors – gone are the days when it could benchmark itself against BA or Air France-KLM! This paper probes behind the headlines to assess the extent to which different airlines are in competition, using evidence from the UK and mainland European markets. The issue of route versus network competition is addressed. Many regulators have put an emphasis on the former whereas the latter, although less obvious, can be more relevant. For example, BA and American will cease to compete between London and Dallas Fort Worth if their alliance obtains anti-trust immunity but 80% of the passengers on this route are connecting at one or both ends and hence arguably belong to different markets (e.g. London-San Francisco, Zurich-Dallas, Edinburgh-New Orleans) which may be highly contested. The remaining 20% of local traffic is actually insufficient to support a single point to point service in its own right. Estimates are made of the seat capacity major airlines are offering to the local market as distinct from feeding other routes. On a sector such as Manchester–Amsterdam, 60% of KLM’s passengers are transferring at Schiphol as against only 1% of bmibaby’s. Thus although KLM operates 5 flights and 630 seats per day against bmibaby’s 2 flights and 298 seats, in the point to point market bmibaby offers more seats than KLM. The growth of the Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) means that competition increasingly needs to be viewed on city pair markets (e.g. London-Rome) rather than airport pair markets (e.g. Heathrow-Fiumicino). As the stronger LCCs drive out weaker rivals and mainline carriers retrench to their major hubs, some markets now have fewer direct options than existed prior to the low cost boom. Timings and frequencies are considered, in particular the extent to which services are a true alternative especially for business travellers. LCCs typically offer lower frequencies and more unsociable timings (e.g. late evening arrivals at remote airports) as they are more focused on providing the cheapest service rather than the most convenient schedule. Interesting findings on ‘monopoly’ services are presented (including alliances) - certain airlines have many more of these than others. Lufthansa has a significant number of sectors to itself whereas at the other extreme British Airways has direct competition on almost every route in its network. Ryanair and flybe have a higher proportion of monopoly routes than easyJet or Air Berlin. In the domestic US market it has become apparent since deregulation that better financial returns can come from dominating a large number of smaller markets rather than being heavily exposed in the major markets - which are hotly fought over. Regional niches that appear too thin for Ryanair to serve (with its all 189 seat 737-800 fleet) are identified. Fare comparisons in contrasting markets provide some insights to marketing and pricing strategies. Data sources used include OAG (schedules and capacity), AEA (traditional European airlines traffic by region), the UK CAA (airport, airline and route traffic plus survey information of passenger types) and ICAO (international route traffic and capacity by carrier). It is concluded that airlines often have different competitors depending on the context but in surprisingly many cases there are actually few or no direct substitutes. The competitive process set in train by deregulation of European air services in the 1990s is leading back to one of natural monopolies and oblique alternatives. It is the names of the main participants that have changed however!

Women in the driving seat Eastern European immigrant women s citizenship participation and educational inclusion in Portugal

This paper is a case study of Eastern European immigrant women’s social inclusion in Portugal through civic participation. An analysis of interviews conducted with women leaders and members of two ethnic associations provides a unique insight into their migrant pathways as highly educated women and the ways in which these women are constructing their citizenship in new contexts in Northern Portugal. These women’s accounts of their immigrant experience embrace both the public realm, in using their own education and their children’s as a means of integration but also spill over into ‘non-public’ familial relationships at home in contradictory ways. These include the sometimes traditional, gender-defined division of labour within the associations and at home and the new ways that they negotiate their relative autonomies to escape forms of violence and subordination that they face as women and immigrants.