Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Effect of amino acid substitutions at the subunit interface on the stabiity and aggregation properties of a dimeric protein: role of Arg 178 and Arg 218 at the dimer interface of thymidylate synthase

The significance of two interface arginine residues on the structural integrity of an obligatory dimeric enzyme thymidylate synthase (TS) from Lactobacillus casei was investigated by thermal and chemical denaturation. While the R178F mutant showed apparent stability to thermal denaturation by its decreased tendency to aggregate, the Tm of the R218K mutant was lowered by 5 degrees C. Equilibrium denaturation studies in guanidinium chloride (GdmCl) and urea indicate that in both the mutants, replacement of Arg residues results in more labile quaternary and tertiary interactions. Circular dichroism studies in aqueous buffer suggest that the protein interior in R218K may be less well-packed as compared to the wild type protein. The results emphasize that quaternary interactions may influence the stability of the tertiary fold of TS. The amino acid replacements also lead to notable alteration in the ability of the unfolding intermediate of TS to aggregate. The aggregated state of partially unfolded intermediate in the R178F mutant is stable over a narrower range of denaturant concentrations. In contrast, there is an exaggerated tendency on the part of R218K to aggregate in intermediate concentrations of the denaturant. The 3 A crystal structure of the R178F mutant reveals no major structural change as a consequence of amino acid substitution. The results may be rationalized in terms of mutational effects on both the folded and unfolded state of the protein. Site specific amino acid substitutions are useful in identifying specific regions of TS involved in association of non-native protein structures.

CD and NMR studies on the aggregation of amphotericin-B in solution

We report in this paper the aggregation properties of amphotericin-B (amp-B) in solution using CD and 1H-NMR techniques. Our results indicate that the preferred structure of amp-B in dimethylsulfoxide is a monomer at low concentrations (10−4M and below) and a stable dimer at higher concentrations (range 5 · 103 M to 10−2M). In a DMSO/ethanol mixture (1:1 (v/v)), the antibiotic is monomeric, irrespective of the concentration within the range studied. We propose a head-to-tail model based on NMR data. An understanding of the head-to-tail dimer, is, we believe important, particularly in view of the recent report wherein it is proposed that the drug inserts into bilayers as head-to-tail oligomers.

Lipid-amphotericin B complex structure in solution: A possible first step in the aggregation process in cell membranes

The interactions between the polyene antibiotic amphotericin B with dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine were investigated in vesicles (using circular dichroism) and in chloroform solution (using circular dichroism and IH, I3C, and 31P nuclear magnetic resonance). The results show that amphotericin B readily aggregates in vesicles and that the extent of aggregation depends on the 1ipid:drug concentration ratio. Introduction of sterol molecules into the membrane hastens the process of aggregation of amphotericin B. In chloroform solutions amphotericin B strongly interacts with phospholipid molecules to form a stoichiometric complex. The results suggest that there are interactions between the conjugated heptene stretch of amphotericin B and the methylene groups of lipid acyl chains, while the sugar moiety interacts with the phosphate head group by the formation of a hydrogen bond. A model is proposed for the lipid-amphotericin B complex, in which amphotericin B interacts equally well with the two lipid acyl chains, forming a 1:l complex.

Characterization of cast irons for optimum performance by overall rating method

An experimental investigation was carried out to Characterise the performance of four types of cast iron under adhesive wear, erosive wear, cavitation erosion and low frequency thermal cycling. Results indicate that vermicular graphite iron has the best rating among the cast irons investigate,based on the overall performance as well as cost consideration.

Coordination aggregation of mesoaryl substituted porphyrins

Synthesis of the free-base tetrakis (3'-nitro/aminophenyl), (H2TNP/H(2)TAP) has been accomplished and its coordination behaviour towards Mg(II), Co(II), Zn(II) and Ag(II) ions is investigated. Optical and magnetic resonance properties of the metal derivatives MTNP and MTAP reveal that the aminoporphyrins exist as aggregates in solution. The aggregation is promoted by the coordination of the peripheral amino groups to neighbouring metalloporphyrins. Possible structures of aggregated species are proposed from the model studies.

Novel cationic and neutral analogues of bile acids: Synthesis and preliminary study of their aggregation properties

Novel cationic and neutral analogues of bile acids (1-6) were synthesized and their aggregation properties studied. Cations 1 and 2 formed thermoreversible gels in aqueous salt solutions, whereas neutral 4 formed gels in water in the presence of organic solvents such as ethanol, methanol, DMSO, and DMF. The gels derived from 1 and 4 have been investigated by SEM and with pyrene as a fluorescent probe.

On the solution of bivariate population balance equations for aggregation: X-discretization of space for expansion and contraction of computational domain

A new structured discretization of 2D space, named X-discretization, is proposed to solve bivariate population balance equations using the framework of minimal internal consistency of discretization of Chakraborty and Kumar [2007, A new framework for solution of multidimensional population balance equations. Chem. Eng. Sci. 62, 4112-4125] for breakup and aggregation of particles. The 2D space of particle constituents (internal attributes) is discretized into bins by using arbitrarily spaced constant composition radial lines and constant mass lines of slope -1. The quadrilaterals are triangulated by using straight lines pointing towards the mean composition line. The monotonicity of the new discretization makes is quite easy to implement, like a rectangular grid but with significantly reduced numerical dispersion. We use the new discretization of space to automate the expansion and contraction of the computational domain for the aggregation process, corresponding to the formation of larger particles and the disappearance of smaller particles by adding and removing the constant mass lines at the boundaries. The results show that the predictions of particle size distribution on fixed X-grid are in better agreement with the analytical solution than those obtained with the earlier techniques. The simulations carried out with expansion and/or contraction of the computational domain as population evolves show that the proposed strategy of evolving the computational domain with the aggregation process brings down the computational effort quite substantially; larger the extent of evolution, greater is the reduction in computational effort. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conformation-Changing Aggregation in Hydroxyacetone: A Combined Low-Temperature FTIR, Jet, and Crystallographic Study

Aggregation in hydroxyacetone (HA) is studied using low-temperature FTIR, supersonic jet expansion, and X-ray crystallographic (in situ cryocrystallization) techniques. Along with quantum chemical methods (MP2 and DFT), the experiments unravel the conformational preferences of HA upon aggregation to dinners and oligomers. The O-H center dot center dot center dot O=C intramolecular hydrogen bond present in the gas-phase monomer partially opens upon aggregation in supersonic expansions, giving rise to intermolecular cooperatively enhanced O-H center dot center dot center dot O-H hydrogen bonds in competition with isolated O-H center dot center dot center dot O=C hydrogen bonds. On the other hand, low-temperature IR studies on the neat solid and X-ray crystallographic data reveal that HA undergoes profound conformational changes upon crystallization, with the HOCC dihedral angle changing from similar to 0 degrees in the gas phase to similar to 180 degrees in the crystalline phase, hence giving rise to a completely new conformation. These conclusions are supported by theoretical calculations performed on the geometry derived from the crystalline phase.

Evidence of aggregation induced emission enhancement and keto-enol-tautomerism in a gallic acid derived salicylideneaniline gel

A novel salicylideneaniline type fluorescent organogelator based on a 3,4,5-(tri-dodecyloxy)benzoyl group immobilizes aromatic solvents. The resulting gels show enhancement in emission and thermochromic/non-photochromic behaviour during sol-to-gel transition.

Aggregation and mesomorphic properties of 'double-headed' carbohydrate amphiphiles

Sugar-based amphiphiles, consisting of two sugar head groups and an alkylene chain within the molecules, are synthesized and their aggregation and mesomorphic properties are evaluated. The hydrophilic sugar head groups, constituted with β-D-glucopyranoside units, and the lyophilic alkylene units, are coupled to a glycerol backbone to afford the ‘double-headed’ sugar amphiphiles. Aggregation studies in aqueous solutions provided their critical micellar concentrations and the aggregation numbers. Mesophase characterizations by polarizing optical microscopy and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) revealed the phase-transition behaviour of these new ‘double-headed’ glycolipids.

Enhancing Speedup in Network Processing Applications by Exploiting Instruction Reuse with Flow Aggregation

Instruction reuse is a microarchitectural technique that improves the execution time of a program by removing redundant computations at run-time. Although this is the job of an optimizing compiler, they do not succeed many a time due to limited knowledge of run-time data. In this paper we examine instruction reuse of integer ALU and load instructions in network processing applications. Specifically, this paper attempts to answer the following questions: (1) How much of instruction reuse is inherent in network processing applications?, (2) Can reuse be improved by reducing interference in the reuse buffer?, (3) What characteristics of network applications can be exploited to improve reuse?, and (4) What is the effect of reuse on resource contention and memory accesses? We propose an aggregation scheme that combines the high-level concept of network traffic i.e. "flows" with a low level microarchitectural feature of programs i.e. repetition of instructions and data along with an architecture that exploits temporal locality in incoming packet data to improve reuse. We find that for the benchmarks considered, 1% to 50% of instructions are reused while the speedup achieved varies between 1% and 24%. As a side effect, instruction reuse reduces memory traffic and can therefore be considered as a scheme for low power.

On the solution of bivariate population balance equations for aggregation: Pivotwise expansion of solution domain

The solution of a bivariate population balance equation (PBE) for aggregation of particles necessitates a large 2-d domain to be covered. A correspondingly large number of discretized equations for particle populations on pivots (representative sizes for bins) are solved, although at the end only a relatively small number of pivots are found to participate in the evolution process. In the present work, we initiate solution of the governing PBE on a small set of pivots that can represent the initial size distribution. New pivots are added to expand the computational domain in directions in which the evolving size distribution advances. A self-sufficient set of rules is developed to automate the addition of pivots, taken from an underlying X-grid formed by intersection of the lines of constant composition and constant particle mass. In order to test the robustness of the rule-set, simulations carried out with pivotwise expansion of X-grid are compared with those obtained using sufficiently large fixed X-grids for a number of composition independent and composition dependent aggregation kernels and initial conditions. The two techniques lead to identical predictions, with the former requiring only a fraction of the computational effort. The rule-set automatically reduces aggregation of particles of same composition to a 1-d problem. A midway change in the direction of expansion of domain, effected by the addition of particles of different mean composition, is captured correctly by the rule-set. The evolving shape of a computational domain carries with it the signature of the aggregation process, which can be insightful in complex and time dependent aggregation conditions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.