Calciphylaxis: a rare but potentially fatal event of chronic kidney disease. Case report

Calciphylaxis or calcific uremic arteriolopathy is a rare cutaneous-systemic disease occurring in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. The classical clinical picture is that of a necrotic and progressive skin ulcer of reticular pattern, mostly in the lower legs and susceptible to local infection. It is a product of mural calcification and occlusion of cutaneous and sub-cutaneous arteries and arterioles. The authors report the case of a 73-year-old male patient in his late stage of renal disease presenting severe necrotic cutaneous ulcers on lower legs followed by local and systemic infection and death due to sepse after parathyroidectomy.

The dynamic regeneration niche of a forest following a rare disturbance event

Aim: Knowledge of how climate and fire regimes affect regeneration in foundation species is critical to the conservation of entire ecosystems. Different stages of regeneration often require different ecological conditions, but dynamic constraints on regeneration are poorly known for species that regenerate only after infrequent wildfires. Focussing on a long-lived, foundation tree species (Eucalyptus regnans), we tested the hypothesis that the relative importance of fire regime variables (fire severity and time since previous fire) and environmental gradients on post-fire regeneration would shift as seedlings developed. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: Following a large (> 59,000 ha) summer wildfire in 2009, we sampled 131 sites (61 burnt) annually for four years (2009-2012), representing the range of environmental conditions in which E. regnans occurs. We analysed the effect of fire severity, time since fire and environmental variables on early regeneration processes critical for post-fire species distributions: seedling establishment, seedling density and growth through different height stages (10 cm, 25 cm, 50 cm and 200 cm). Results: The regeneration niche of E. regnans was defined by different factors at different stages of development. Initially, seedlings established prolifically on burnt sites, regardless of severity. Three years into the regeneration process, high-severity fire became the dominant driver of seedling persistence and growth over 25 cm. Growth over 50 cm was dependent on environmental conditions relating to elevation and precipitation. Main conclusions: Our results describe how fire occurrence, fire severity and environmental gradients affected seedling establishment, persistence and growth. The dynamic constraints on regeneration likely reflect temporal changes in the biotic and abiotic environment and variation in resource requirements during the early post-fire years. Our findings will enable more accurate forecasts of species distributions to assist forest conservation in the face of global changes in climate and fire regimes.

Kindergarten students' understanding of probability concepts

This study explored kindergarten students’ intuitive strategies and understandings in probabilities. The paper aims to provide an in depth insight into the levels of probability understanding across four constructs, as proposed by Jones (1997), for kindergarten students. Qualitative evidence from two students revealed that even before instruction pupils have a good capacity of predicting most and least likely events, of distinguishing fair probability situations from unfair ones, of comparing the probability of an event in two sample spaces, and of recognizing conditional probability events. These results contribute to the growing evidence on kindergarten students’ intuitive probabilistic reasoning. The potential of this study for improving the learning of probability, as well as suggestions for further research, are discussed.

Surviving the Titanic disaster : economic, natural and social determinants

The sinking of the Titanic in April 1912 took the lives of 68 percent of the people aboard. Who survived? It was women and children who had a higher probability of being saved, not men. Likewise, people traveling in first class had a better chance of survival than those in second and third class. British passengers were more likely to perish than members of other nations. This extreme event represents a rare case of a well-documented life and death situation where social norms were enforced. This paper shows that economic analysis can account for human behavior in such situations.

FGFR2 mutations are rare across histologic subtypes of ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynecologic malignancies in the Western world. Fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) signaling has been implicated to play a role in ovarian tumorigenesis. Mutational activation of one member of this receptor family, FGFR2, is a frequent event in endometrioid endometrial cancer. Given the similarities in the histologic and molecular genetics of ovarian and endometrial cancers, we hypothesized that activating FGFR2 mutations may occur in a subset of endometrioid ovarian tumors, and possibly other histotypes. METHODS: Six FGFR2 exons were sequenced in 120 primary ovarian tumors representing the major histologic subtypes. RESULTS: FGFR2 mutation was detected at low frequency in endometrioid (1/46, 2.2%) and serous (1/41, 2.4%) ovarian cancer. No mutations were detected in clear cell, mucinous, or mixed histology tumors or in the ovarian cancer cell lines tested. Functional characterization of the FGFR2 mutations confirmed that the mutations detected in ovarian cancer result in receptor activation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the low incidence of FGFR2 mutations in ovarian cancer, the two FGFR2 mutations identified in ovarian tumors (S252W, Y376C) overlap with the oncogenic mutations previously identified in endometrial tumors, suggesting activated FGFR2 may contribute to ovarian cancer pathogenesis in a small subset of ovarian tumors.

How activation, entanglement, and searching a semantic network contribute to event memory

Free association norms indicate that words are organized into semantic/associative neighborhoods within a larger network of words and links that bind the net together. We present evidence indicating that memory for a recent word event can depend on implicitly and simultaneously activating related words in its neighborhood. Processing a word during encoding primes its network representation as a function of the density of the links in its neighborhood. Such priming increases recall and recognition and can have long lasting effects when the word is processed in working memory. Evidence for this phenomenon is reviewed in extralist cuing, primed free association, intralist cuing, and single-item recognition tasks. The findings also show that when a related word is presented to cue the recall of a studied word, the cue activates it in an array of related words that distract and reduce the probability of its selection. The activation of the semantic network produces priming benefits during encoding and search costs during retrieval. In extralist cuing recall is a negative function of cue-to-distracter strength and a positive function of neighborhood density, cue-to-target strength, and target-to cue strength. We show how four measures derived from the network can be combined and used to predict memory performance. These measures play different roles in different tasks indicating that the contribution of the semantic network varies with the context provided by the task. We evaluate spreading activation and quantum-like entanglement explanations for the priming effect produced by neighborhood density.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Incorporating adverse event relatedness into dose-finding clinical trial designs

Dose-finding designs estimate the dose level of a drug based on observed adverse events. Relatedness of the adverse event to the drug has been generally ignored in all proposed design methodologies. These designs assume that the adverse events observed during a trial are definitely related to the drug, which can lead to flawed dose-level estimation. We incorporate adverse event relatedness into the so-called continual reassessment method. Adverse events that have ‘doubtful’ or ‘possible’ relationships to the drug are modelled using a two-parameter logistic model with an additive probability mass. Adverse events ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ related to the drug are modelled using a cumulative logistic model. To search for the maximum tolerated dose, we use the maximum estimated toxicity probability of these two adverse event relatedness categories. We conduct a simulation study that illustrates the characteristics of the design under various scenarios. This article demonstrates that adverse event relatedness is important for improved dose estimation. It opens up further research pathways into continual reassessment design methodologies.

Functional neuroanatomy of auditory mismatch processing : an event-related fMRI study of duration-deviant oddballs

This study was designed to identify the neural networks underlying automatic auditory deviance detection in 10 healthy subjects using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We measured blood oxygenation level-dependent contrasts derived from the comparison of blocks of stimuli presented as a series of standard tones (50 ms duration) alone versus blocks that contained rare duration-deviant tones (100 ms) that were interspersed among a series of frequent standard tones while subjects were watching a silent movie. Possible effects of scanner noise were assessed by a “no tone” condition. In line with previous positron emission tomography and EEG source modeling studies, we found temporal lobe and prefrontal cortical activation that was associated with auditory duration mismatch processing. Data were also analyzed employing an event-related hemodynamic response model, which confirmed activation in response to duration-deviant tones bilaterally in the superior temporal gyrus and prefrontally in the right inferior and middle frontal gyri. In line with previous electrophysiological reports, mismatch activation of these brain regions was significantly correlated with age. These findings suggest a close relationship of the event-related hemodynamic response pattern with the corresponding electrophysiological activity underlying the event-related “mismatch negativity” potential, a putative measure of auditory sensory memory.

Improving Near-Miss Event Detection Rate at Railway Level Crossings

Even though crashes between trains and road users are rare events at railway level crossings, they are one of the major safety concerns for the Australian railway industry. Nearmiss events at level crossings occur more frequently, and can provide more information about factors leading to level crossing incidents. In this paper we introduce a video analytic approach for automatically detecting and localizing vehicles from cameras mounted on trains for detecting near-miss events. To detect and localize vehicles at level crossings we extract patches from an image and classify each patch for detecting vehicles. We developed a region proposals algorithm for generating patches, and we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for classifying each patch. To localize vehicles in images we combine the patches that are classified as vehicles according to their CNN scores and positions. We compared our system with the Deformable Part Models (DPM) and Regions with CNN features (R-CNN) object detectors. Experimental results on a railway dataset show that the recall rate of our proposed system is 29% higher than what can be achieved with DPM or R-CNN detectors.

Detecting rare events using Kullback-Leibler divergence: A weakly supervised approach

Video surveillance infrastructure has been widely installed in public places for security purposes. However, live video feeds are typically monitored by human staff, making the detection of important events as they occur difficult. As such, an expert system that can automatically detect events of interest in surveillance footage is highly desirable. Although a number of approaches have been proposed, they have significant limitations: supervised approaches, which can detect a specific event, ideally require a large number of samples with the event spatially and temporally localised; while unsupervised approaches, which do not require this demanding annotation, can only detect whether an event is abnormal and not specific event types. To overcome these problems, we formulate a weakly-supervised approach using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to detect rare events. The proposed approach leverages the sparse nature of the target events to its advantage, and we show that this data imbalance guarantees the existence of a decision boundary to separate samples that contain the target event from those that do not. This trait, combined with the coarse annotation used by weakly supervised learning (that only indicates approximately when an event occurs), greatly reduces the annotation burden while retaining the ability to detect specific events. Furthermore, the proposed classifier requires only a decision threshold, simplifying its use compared to other weakly supervised approaches. We show that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on a popular real-world traffic surveillance dataset, while preserving real time performance.