Relations between soil surface roughness, tortuosity, tillage treatments, rainfall intensity and soil and water losses from a red yellow latosol

The soil surface roughness increases water retention and infiltration, reduces the runoff volume and speed and influences soil losses by water erosion. Similarly to other parameters, soil roughness is affected by the tillage system and rainfall volume. Based on these assumptions, the main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of tillage treatments on soil surface roughness (RR) and tortuosity (T) and to investigate the relationship with soil and water losses in a series of simulated rainfall events. The field study was carried out at the experimental station of EMBRAPA Southeastern Cattle Research Center in São Carlos (Fazenda Canchim), in São Paulo State, Brazil. Experimental plots of 33 m² were treated with two tillage practices in three replications, consisting of: untilled (no-tillage) soil (NTS) and conventionally tilled (plowing plus double disking) soil (CTS). Three successive simulated rain tests were applied in 24 h intervals. The three tests consisted of a first rain of 30 mm/h, a second of 30 mm/h and a third rain of 70 mm/h. Immediately after tilling and each rain simulation test, the surface roughness was measured, using a laser profile meter. The tillage treatments induced significant changes in soil surface roughness and tortuosity, demonstrating the importance of the tillage system for the physical surface conditions, favoring water retention and infiltration in the soil. The increase in surface roughness by the tillage treatments was considerably greater than its reduction by rain action. The surface roughness and tortuosity had more influence on the soil volume lost by surface runoff than in the conventional treatment. Possibly, other variables influenced soil and water losses from the no-tillage treatments, e.g., soil type, declivity, slope length, among others not analyzed in this study.

Scaling properties of rainfall and desert dust in the Canary Islands

[EN] Precipitation and desert dust event occurrence time series measured in the Canary Islands region are examined with the primary intention of exploring their scaling characteristics as well as their spatial variability in terms of the islands topography and geographical orientation. In particular, the desert dust intrusion regime in the islands is studied in terms of its relationship with visibility. Analysis of dust and rainfall events over the archipelago exhibits distributions in time that obey power laws. Results show that the rain process presents a high clustering and irregular pattern on short timescales and a more scattered structure for long ones. In contrast, dustiness presents a more uniform and dense structure and, consequently, a more persistent behaviour on short timescales. It was observed that the fractal dimension of rainfall events shows an important spatial variability, which increases with altitude, as well as towards northern latitudes and western longitudes.

Influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality

This thesis presents the outcomes of a comprehensive research study undertaken to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The knowledge created is expected to contribute to a greater understanding of urban stormwater quality and thereby enhance the design of stormwater quality treatment systems. The research study was undertaken based on selected urban catchments in Gold Coast, Australia. The research methodology included field investigations, laboratory testing, computer modelling and data analysis. Both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques were used to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The rainfall characteristics investigated included average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration whilst catchment characteristics included land use, impervious area percentage, urban form and pervious area location. The catchment scale data for the analysis was obtained from four residential catchments, including rainfall-runoff records, drainage network data, stormwater quality data and land use and land cover data. Pollutants build-up samples were collected from twelve road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land use areas. The relationships between rainfall characteristics, catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality were investigated based on residential catchments and then extended to other land uses. Based on the influence rainfall characteristics exert on urban stormwater quality, rainfall events can be classified into three different types, namely, high average intensity-short duration (Type 1), high average intensity-long duration (Type 2) and low average intensity-long duration (Type 3). This provides an innovative approach to conventional modelling which does not commonly relate stormwater quality to rainfall characteristics. Additionally, it was found that the threshold intensity for pollutant wash-off from urban catchments is much less than for rural catchments. High average intensity-short duration rainfall events are cumulatively responsible for the generation of a major fraction of the annual pollutants load compared to the other rainfall event types. Additionally, rainfall events less than 1 year ARI such as 6- month ARI should be considered for treatment design as they generate a significant fraction of the annual runoff volume and by implication a significant fraction of the pollutants load. This implies that stormwater treatment designs based on larger rainfall events would not be feasible in the context of cost-effectiveness, efficiency in treatment performance and possible savings in land area needed. This also suggests that the simulation of long-term continuous rainfall events for stormwater treatment design may not be needed and that event based simulations would be adequate. The investigations into the relationship between catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality found that other than conventional catchment characteristics such as land use and impervious area percentage, other catchment characteristics such as urban form and pervious area location also play important roles in influencing urban stormwater quality. These outcomes point to the fact that the conventional modelling approach in the design of stormwater quality treatment systems which is commonly based on land use and impervious area percentage would be inadequate. It was also noted that the small uniformly urbanised areas within a larger mixed catchment produce relatively lower variations in stormwater quality and as expected lower runoff volume with the opposite being the case for large mixed use urbanised catchments. Therefore, a decentralised approach to water quality treatment would be more effective rather than an "end-of-pipe" approach. The investigation of pollutants build-up on different land uses showed that pollutant build-up characteristics vary even within the same land use. Therefore, the conventional approach in stormwater quality modelling, which is based solely on land use, may prove to be inappropriate. Industrial land use has relatively higher variability in maximum pollutant build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution than the other two land uses. However, commercial and residential land uses had relatively higher variations of nutrients and organic carbon build-up. Additionally, it was found that particle size distribution had a relatively higher variability for all three land uses compared to the other build-up parameters. The high variability in particle size distribution for all land uses illustrate the dissimilarities associated with the fine and coarse particle size fractions even within the same land use and hence the variations in stormwater quality in relation to pollutants adsorbing to different sizes of particles.

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

Numerical Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration in the Slope with a Fracture

With the finite volume method, a 2D numerical model for seepage in unsaturated soil has been established to study the rainfall infiltration in the fractured slope.The result shows that more rain may infiltrate into the slope due to existing fracture and then the pore pressure rises correspondingly. Very probably, it is one of the crucial factors accounting for slope failure. Furthermore a preliminary study has been conducted to investigate the influence of various fracture and rainfall factors such as the depth, width and location of a crack, surface condition, rainfall intensity and duration. Pore pressure and water volumetric content during the transient seepage are carefully examined to reveal the intrinsic mechanism.

Analysis of groundwater-level response to rainfall and recharge estimates in fractured hard rock aquifers, NW Ireland

Despite fractured hard rock aquifers underlying over 65% of Ireland, knowledge of key processes controlling groundwater recharge in these bedrock systems is inadequately constrained. In this study, we examined 19 groundwater-level hydrographs from two Irish hillslope sites underlain by hard rock aquifers. Water-level time-series in clustered monitoring wells completed at the subsoil, soil/bedrock interface, shallow and deep bedrocks were continuously monitored hourly over two hydrological years. Correlation methods were applied to investigate groundwater-level response to rainfall, as well as its seasonal variations. The results reveal that the direct groundwater recharge to the shallow and deep bedrocks on hillslope is very limited. Water-level variations within these geological units are likely dominated by slow flow rock matrix storage. The rapid responses to rainfall (⩽2 h) with little seasonal variations were observed to the monitoring wells installed at the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, as well as those in the shallow or deep bedrocks at the base of the hillslope. This suggests that the direct recharge takes place within these units. An automated time-series procedure using the water-table fluctuation method was developed to estimate groundwater recharge from the water-level and rainfall data. Results show the annual recharge rates of 42–197 mm/yr in the subsoil and soil/bedrock interface, which represent 4–19% of the annual rainfall. Statistical analysis of the relationship between the rainfall intensity and water-table rise reveal that the low rainfall intensity group (⩽1 mm/h) has greater impact on the groundwater recharge rate than other groups (>1 mm/h). This study shows that the combination of the time-series analysis and the water-table fluctuation method could be an useful approach to investigate groundwater recharge in fractured hard rock aquifers in Ireland.

Agricultural practices and horizontal nutrient balances in urban gardens and the alternative use of urban agricultural land in Khartoum, Sudan

The surge in the urban population evident in most developing countries is a worldwide phenomenon, and often the result of drought, conflicts, poverty and the lack of education opportunities. In parallel with the growth of the cities is the growing need for food which leads to the burgeoning expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In this context, urban agriculture (UA) contributes significantly to supplying local markets with both vegetable and animal produce. As an income generating activity, UA also contributes to the livelihoods of poor urban dwellers. In order to evaluate the nutrient status of urban soils in relation to garden management, this study assessed nutrient fluxes (inputs and outputs) in gardens on urban Gerif soils on the banks of the River Nile in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. To achieve this objective, a preliminary baseline survey was carried out to describe the structure of the existing garden systems. In cooperation with the author of another PhD thesis (Ms. Ishtiag Abdalla), alternative uses of cow dung in brick making kilns in urban Khartoum were assessed; and the socio-economic criteria of the brick kiln owners or agents, economical and plant nutritional value of animal dung and the gaseous emission related to brick making activities were assessed. A total of 40 household heads were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on demographic, socio-economic and migratory characteristics of the household members, the gardening systems used and the problems encountered in urban gardening. Based on the results of this survey, gardens were divided into three groups: mixed vegetable-fodder gardens, mixed vegetable-subsistence livestock gardens and pure vegetable gardens. The results revealed that UA is the exclusive domain of men, 80% of them non-native to Khartoum. The harvested produce in all gardens was market oriented and represented the main source of income for 83% of the gardeners. Fast growing leafy vegetables such as Jew’s mallow (Corchorous olitorius L.), purslane (Portulaca oleracea L.) and rocket (Eruca sativa Mill.) were the dominant cultivated species. Most of the gardens (95%) were continuously cultivated throughout the year without any fallow period, unless they were flooded. Gardeners were not generally aware of the importance of crop diversity, which may help them overcome the strongly fluctuating market prices for their produce and thereby strengthen the contributions of UA to the overall productivity of the city. To measure nutrient fluxes, four gardens were selected and their nutrients inputs and outputs flows were monitored. In each garden, all plots were monitored for quantification of nutrient inputs and outputs. To determine soil chemical fertility parameters in each of the studied gardens, soil samples were taken from three selected plots at the beginning of the study in October 2007 (gardens L1, L2 and H1) and in April 2008 (garden H2) and at the end of the study period in March 2010. Additional soil sampling occurred in May 2009 to assess changes in the soil nutrient status after the River Nile flood of 2008 had receded. Samples of rain and irrigation water (river and well-water) were analyzed for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and carbon (C) content to determine their nutrient inputs. Catchment traps were installed to quantify the sediment yield from the River Nile flood. To quantify the nutrient inputs of sediments, samples were analyzed for N, P, K and organic carbon (Corg) content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and the particle size distribution. The total nutrient inputs were calculated by multiplying the sediment nutrient content by total sediment deposits on individual gardens. Nutrient output in the form of harvested yield was quantified at harvest of each crop. Plant samples from each field were dried, and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. Cumulative leaching losses of mineral N and P were estimated in a single plot in garden L1 from December 1st 2008 to July 1st 2009 using 12 ion exchange resins cartridges. Nutrients were extracted and analyzed for nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and phosphate PO4-3-P. Changes in soil nutrient balance were assessed as inputs minus outputs. The results showed that across gardens, soil N and P concentrations increased from 2007 to 2009, while particle size distribution remained unchanged. Sediment loads and their respective contents of N, P and Corg decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from the gardens of the downstream lowlands (L1 and L2) to the gardens of the upstream highlands (H1 and H2). No significant difference was found in K deposits. None of the gardens received organic fertilizers and the only mineral fertilizer applied was urea (46-0-0). This equaled 29, 30, 54, and 67% of total N inputs to gardens L1, L2, H1, and H2, respectively. Sediment deposits of the River Nile floods contributed on average 67, 94, 6 and 42% to the total N, P, K and C inputs in lowland gardens and 33, 86, 4 and 37% of total N, P, K and C inputs in highland gardens. Irrigation water and rainfall contributed substantially to K inputs representing 96, 92, 94 and 96% of total K influxes in garden L1, L2, H1 and H2, respectively. Following the same order, total annual DM yields in the gardens were 26, 18, 16 and 1.8 t ha-1. Annual leaching losses were estimated to be 0.02 kg NH4+-N ha-1 (SE = 0.004), 0.03 kg NO3--N ha-1 (SE = 0.002) and 0.005 kg PO4-3-P ha-1 (SE = 0.0007). Differences between nutrient inputs and outputs indicated negative nutrient balances for P and K and positive balances of N and C for all gardens. The negative balances in P and K call for adoptions of new agricultural techniques such as regular manure additions or mulching which may enhance the soil organic matter status. A quantification of fluxes not measured in our study such as N2-fixation, dry deposition and gaseous emissions of C and N would be necessary to comprehensively assess the sustainability of these intensive gardening systems. The second part of the survey dealt with the brick making kilns. A total of 50 brick kiln owners/or agents were interviewed from July to August 2009, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data collected included general information such as age, family size, education, land ownership, number of kilns managed and/or owned, number of months that kilns were in operation, quantity of inputs (cow dung and fuel wood) used, prices of inputs and products across the production season. Information related to the share value of the land on which the kilns were built and annual income for urban farmers and annual returns from dung for the animal raisers was also collected. Using descriptive statistics, budget calculation and Gini coefficient, the results indicated that renting the land to brick making kilns yields a 5-fold higher return than the rent for agriculture. Gini coefficient showed that the kiln owners had a more equal income distribution compared to farmers. To estimate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and losses of N, P, K, Corg and DM from cow dung when used in brick making, samples of cow dung (loose and compacted) were collected from different kilns and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. The procedure modified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1994) was used to estimate the gaseous emissions of cow dung and fuel wood. The amount of deforested wood was estimated according to the default values for wood density given by Dixon et al. (1991) and the expansion ratio for branches and small trees given by Brown et al. (1989). The data showed the monetary value of added N and P from cow dung was lower than for mineral fertilizers. Annual consumption of compacted dung (381 t DM) as biomass fuel by far exceeded the consumption of fuel wood (36 t DM). Gaseous emissions from cow dung and fuel wood were dominated by CO2, CO and CH4. Considering that Gerif land in urban Khartoum supports a multifunctional land use system, efficient use of natural resources (forest, dung, land and water) will enhance the sustainability of the UA and brick making activities. Adoption of new kilns with higher energy efficiency will reduce the amount of biomass fuels (cow dung and wood) used the amount of GHGs emitted and the threat to the few remaining forests.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I. Observation and modelling

In this study, the oceanic regions that are associated with anomalous Ethiopian summer rains were identified and the teleconnection mechanisms that give rise to these associations have been investigated. Because of the complexities of rainfall climate in the horn of Africa, Ethiopia has been subdivided into six homogeneous rainfall zones and the influence of SST anomalies was analysed separately for each zone. The investigation made use of composite analysis and modelling experiments. Two sets of composites of atmospheric fields were generated, one based on excess/deficit rainfall anomalies and the other based on warm/cold SST anomalies in specific oceanic regions. The aim of the composite analysis was to determine the link between SST and rainfall in terms of large scale features. The modelling experiments were intended to explore the causality of these linkage. The results show that the equatorial Pacific, the midlatitude northwest Pacific and the Gulf of Guinea all exert an influence on the summer rainfall in various part of the country. The results demonstrate that different mechanisms linked to sea surface temperature control variations in rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia. This has important consequences for seasonal forecasting models which are based on statistical correlations between SST and seasonal rainfall totals. It is clear that such statistical models should take account of the local variations in teleconnections.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model

The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change. In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall. Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection.

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non-parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.