La alianza de estados insulares pequeños y la securitización del cambio climático en la convención marco de Naciones Unidas sobre cambio climático (1992-2012)

La presente monografía busca explicar el proceso de securitización realizado por la AOSIS del cambio climático en las COP de la CMNUCC. Esta investigación defiende que la AOSIS sí ha hecho dicho proceso a través de estrategias como el liderazgo moral y los nexos con actores no-estatales; pero dicho proceso no ha sido exitoso, dado el predominio del discurso del desarrollo sostenible en las negociaciones, el debilitamiento de la AOSIS como actor securitizador y el poco apoyo formal de las potencias emergentes y el bloque UMBRELLA. Para sustentar lo anterior, se realizará una revisión de informes científicos que demuestran que el cambio climático es una amenaza a la seguridad, y un estudio desde de la teoría de securitización de Thierry Balzacq, de los discursos dados por los estados AOSIS, de las COP y de las posiciones de algunos bloques de negociación sobre el cambio climático.

Dime cómo me percibes y te diré quién soy: Estados Unidos y su idea de la política exterior China en la década de 1950

La década de 1950 fue determinante en el establecimiento y póstumo desarrollo del sistema de política exterior de la República Popular China. Al respecto, es de vital importancia realizar un análisis exhaustivo sobre esta primera etapa en donde actores externos a la nación tuvieron un papel determinante. Se busca, entonces, analizar la incidencia que tuvo el discurso de Estados Unidos en la política exterior China a través de un profundo análisis cualitativo que tendrá como base elementos propios de la historiografía. Mediante aproximaciones constructivistas, se pretende demostrar que las creencias pre-existentes de ambos actores (así como la intersubjetividad entre los mismos), determinó la identidad construida a través de la percepción mutua. Lo anterior, impulsó las relaciones predominantemente agresivas entre Estados Unidos y la China Maoísta de principios de la Guerra Fría.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

The Emerging Civil Society in China and Its Impact on Democratization

Recent years have seen an emerging civil society in an authoritarian China. The authoritarian embrace of civil society challenges the conventional wisdom that civil society is closely linked to democracy. In Beijing, the rhetoric of civil society linked less to democracy than to modernization. However, does civil society development have any impact on democratization in authoritarian regimes? The thesis tries to provide a tentative answer by studying civil society and democratization in post-Mao China. As a result of economic development and political reforms, gradual political liberalization has marked a shift of state-society relations that gives rise to a certain degree of democratization and a growing civil society. The thesis uses a statistical correlation study to examine the relations between grassroots democratization and civil society development. The study concludes that civil society development may have contributed to democratization at the grassroots level but not on the national level. The impact of civil society on democratization depends on the political structure of the state and will remain limited unless the government allows for further state-led democratic openings.

Impact of the Manaus urban plume on trace gas mixing ratios near the surface in the Amazon Basin: Implications for the NO-NO2-O-3 photostationary state and peroxy radical levels

We measured the mixing ratios of NO, NO2, O-3, and volatile organic carbon as well as the aerosol light-scattering coefficient on a boat platform cruising on rivers downwind of the city of Manaus (Amazonas State, Brazil) in July 2001 (Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia-Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment-2001). The dispersion and impact of the Manaus plume was investigated by a combined analysis of ground-based (boat platform) and airborne trace gas and aerosol measurements as well as by meteorological measurements complemented by dispersion calculations (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model). For the cases with the least anthropogenic influence (including a location in a so far unexplored region similar to 150 km west of Manaus on the Rio Manacapuru), the aerosol scattering coefficient, sigma(s), was below 11 Mm(-1), NOx mixing ratios remained below 0.6 ppb, daytime O-3 mixing ratios were mostly below 20 ppb and maximal isoprene mixing ratios were about 3 ppb in the afternoon. The photostationary state (PSS) was not established for these cases, as indicated by values of the Leighton ratio, Phi, well above unity. Due to the influence of river breeze systems and other thermally driven mesoscale circulations, a change of the synoptic wind direction from east-northeast to south-southeast in the afternoon often caused a substantial increase of ss and trace gas mixing ratios (about threefold for sigma(s), fivefold for NOx, and twofold for O-3), which was associated with the arrival of the Manaus pollution plume at the boat location. The ratio F reached unity within its uncertainty range at NOx mixing ratios of about 3 ppb, indicating "steady-state" conditions in cases when radiation variations, dry deposition, emissions, and reactions mostly involving peroxy radicals (XO2) played a minor role. The median midday/afternoon XO2 mixing ratios estimated using the PSS method range from 90 to 120 parts per trillion (ppt) for the remote cases (sigma(s) < 11 Mm(-1) and NOx < 0.6 ppb), while for the polluted cases our estimates are 15 to 60 ppt. These values are within the range of XO2 estimated by an atmospheric chemistry box model (Chemistry As A Box model Application-Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (CAABA/MECCA)-3.0).

Three Decades of Social Work in France: from Security within the Welfare State to a State of «Disembedded Modernity»

This article gives an overview of trends in policy on the functions and role of social work in French society over the past twenty years. The author suggests several reasons for the current feeling of crisis of professional identity among professionals and the complexities of the political demands made on social work. These are analysed as a consequence of the specific French context of decentralisation of the State and of the multitude of approaches to organisation and to professional training programs. On a broader level, it seems that French social work reflects many characteristics of “modernity” being concerned with difficulties in defining a clear identity, lack of a clear territorial and institutional base (or “disembeddedness” to borrow Giddens term) and difficulties in finding a clear voice to make its values heard in an increasingly politicised arena of public debate.

The Impact of Visa Liberalisation in Eastern Partnership Countries, Russia and Turkey on Trans-Border Mobility. CEPS Liberty and Security in Europe No. 63, March 2014

Schengen Visa liberalisation in the Eastern Partnership countries, Russia and Turkey has proven to have a huge transformative potential across the justice, liberty and security policies of the countries where it has been deployed. Far-reaching technical reforms in the fields of document security, irregular migration and border management, public order security and fundamental rights have to be implemented so that visa-free travel can be allowed. Evidence provided by visa applications data reveals that visa liberalisation is a logical step, provided that the technical reforms are adopted and implemented. This study analyses the current state of play of the implementation of the EU visa policy instruments and assesses the positive impact of visa-free travel on trans-border mobility according to current visa application statistics.

Securing international society: Towards an English School discourse of security

English School approaches to international politics, which focus on the idea of an international society of states bound together by shared rules and norms, have not paid significant explicit attention to the study of security in international relations. This is curious given the centrality of security to the study of world politics and the recent resurgence of English School scholarship in general. This article attempts to redress this gap by locating and explicating an English School discourse of security. We argue here that there is indeed an English School discourse of security, although an important internal distinction exists here between pluralist and solidarist accounts, which focus on questions of order and justice in international society respectively. In making this argument, we also seek to explore the extent to which emerging solidarist accounts of security serve to redress the insecurity of security in international relations: the tendency of traditional security praxes to privilege the state in ways that renders individuals insecure.

Human Security and Crime in Latin America: The political Capital and Political Impact of Criminal Groups and Belligerents Involved in Illicit Economies

Organized crime and illegal economies generate multiple threats to states and societies. But although the negative effects of high levels of pervasive street and organized crime on human security are clear, the relationships between human security, crime, illicit economies, and law enforcement are highly complex. By sponsoring illicit economies in areas of state weakness where legal economic opportunities and public goods are seriously lacking, both belligerent and criminal groups frequently enhance some elements of human security of the marginalized populations who depend on illicit economies for basic livelihoods. Even criminal groups without a political ideology often have an important political impact on the lives of communities and on their allegiance to the State. Criminal groups also have political agendas. Both belligerent and criminal groups can develop political capital through their sponsorship of illicit economies. The extent of their political capital is dependent on several factors. Efforts to defeat belligerent groups by decreasing their financial flows through suppression of an illicit economy are rarely effective. Such measures, in turn, increase the political capital of anti-State groups. The effectiveness of anti-money laundering measures (AML) also remains low and is often highly contingent on specific vulnerabilities of the target. The design of AML measures has other effects, such as on the size of a country’s informal economy. Multifaceted anti-crime strategies that combine law enforcement approaches with targeted socio-economic policies and efforts to improve public goods provision, including access to justice, are likely to be more effective in suppressing crime than tough nailed-fist approaches. For anti-crime policies to be effective, they often require a substantial, but politically-difficult concentration of resources in target areas. In the absence of effective law enforcement capacity, legalization and decriminalization policies of illicit economies are unlikely on their own to substantially reduce levels of criminality or to eliminate organized crime. Effective police reform, for several decades largely elusive in Latin America, is one of the most urgently needed policy reforms in the region. Such efforts need to be coupled with fundamental judicial and correctional systems reforms. Yet, regional approaches cannot obliterate the so-called balloon effect. If demand persists, even under intense law enforcement pressures, illicit economies will relocate to areas of weakest law enforcement, but they will not be eliminated.

Rethinking What is Necessary in a Democratic Society: Militant Democracy and the Turkish State

Questions relating to contemporary understandings of democracy continue to preoccupy the academic landscape, from politics to law—how does one define democracy; is it necessary to recalibrate the concept of democracy to meet the exigencies of the current global security "crisis" and, following from this, how does one understand (and control) the democratic relationship of representation and accountability between citizen and state? Although those writing on the recalibration of democratic theory come from different points of departure, they often arrive at a similar conclusion; namely that this global era poses significant challenges to contemporary understandings of democracy. This article identifies and focuses on one challenge posed by the concept of “militant” democracy against the backdrop of the Turkish case.

Experiences in Passively Detecting Session Hijacking Attacks in IEEE 802.11 Networks

Current IEEE 802.11 wireless networks are vulnerable to session hijacking attacks as the existing standards fail to address the lack of authentication of management frames and network card addresses, and rely on loosely coupled state machines. Even the new WLAN security standard - IEEE 802.11i does not address these issues. In our previous work, we proposed two new techniques for improving detection of session hijacking attacks that are passive, computationally inexpensive, reliable, and have minimal impact on network performance. These techniques utilise unspoofable characteristics from the MAC protocol and the physical layer to enhance confidence in the intrusion detection process. This paper extends our earlier work and explores usability, robustness and accuracy of these intrusion detection techniques by applying them to eight distinct test scenarios. A correlation engine has also been introduced to maintain the false positives and false negatives at a manageable level. We also explore the process of selecting optimum thresholds for both detection techniques. For the purposes of our experiments, Snort-Wireless open source wireless intrusion detection system was extended to implement these new techniques and the correlation engine. Absence of any false negatives and low number of false positives in all eight test scenarios successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the correlation engine and the accuracy of the detection techniques.

ICT integration and teachers' confidence in using ICT for teaching and learning in Queensland state schools

Information and communication technology (ICT) curriculum integration is the apparent goal of an extensive array of educational initiatives in all Australian states and territories. However, ICT curriculum integration is neither value neutral nor universally understood. The literature indicates the complexity of rationales and terminology that underwrite various initiatives; various dimensions and stages of integration; inherent methodological difficulties; obstacles to integration; and significant issues relating to teacher professional development and ICT competencies (Jamieson-Proctor, Watson, & Finger, 2003). This paper investigates the overarching question: Are ICT integration initiatives making a significant impact on teaching and learning in Queensland state schools? It reports the results from a teacher survey that measures the quantity and quality of student use of ICT. Results from 929 teachers across all year levels and from 38 Queensland state schools indicate that female teachers (73% of the full time teachers in Queensland state schools in 2005) are significantly less confident than their male counterparts in using ICT with students for teaching and learning, and there is evidence of significant resistance to using ICT to align curriculum with new times and new technologies. This result supports the hypothesis that current initiatives with ICT are having uneven and less than the desired results system wide. These results require further urgent investigation in order to address the factors that currently constrain the use of ICT for teaching and learning.

The impact of natural disasters on residential property markets

Over the past ten years various residential property markets throughout Australia in general and NSW in particular have been subject to substantial natural disasters. These occurrences have included floods, bushfires and hailstorms. In extreme cases the actual rectification costs have been up to AUD$1.5 billion, which occurred with the severe hailstorm in Sydney in April 1999 and cyclone Tracey in Darwin in 1974. Natural disasters such as severe storms and hailstorms have tended to be very indiscriminate in relation to frequency and the actual location of damage, whereas the nature of bushfire and flooding tends to be more defined. Although these extreme natural disasters tend to be infrequent, occurrences of floods and bushfires in residential property areas are more frequent, particularly as urban sprawl encroaches closer to national Parks, State recreation Parks and State forests. Considerable work has been carried out on flood effects on property markets by Bell (1999), Donnelly (1988), McClusky and Rausser (2001), Skrantz and Strickland (1987) in the US, and Chou and Shih (2001) in Taiwan. Fibbens (1994), Lambley and Cordery (1991) and Eves (1999, 2001, 2002) have carried out studies in relation to the effect of flooding on residential property values in the Sydney region, including the tracking of flood prone property values over time. However, no similar rigorous research has been carried out in relation to the impact of bushfires on residential property markets in the Sydney region.

Stakeholder impact analysis of infrastructure project management in developing countries : a study of perception of project managers in state-owned engineering firms in Vietnam

Construction projects can involve a diverse range of stakeholders and the success of the project depends very much on fulfilling their needs and expectations. It is important, therefore, to identify and recognize project stakeholders and develop a rigorous stakeholder management process. However, limited research has investigated the impact of stakeholders on construction projects in developing countries. A stakeholder impact analysis (SIA), based on an approach developed by Olander (2007), was adopted to investigate the stakeholders' impact on state-owned civil engineering projects in Vietnam. This involved the analysis of a questionnaire survey of 57 project managers to determine the relative importance of different stakeholders. The results show the client to have the highest level of impact on the projects, followed by project managers and the senior management of state-owned engineering firms. The SIA also provides suggestions to project managers in developing and evaluating the stakeholder management process.