The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution system restoration in a DG environment using a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm

This paper proposes a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm (HCMA) to distribution system restoration in real time considering distributed generators installed in the system. The problem is modeled as nonlinear mixed integer and considers the two main goals of the restoration of distribution networks: minimizing the number of consumers without power and the number of switching. The proposed algorithm is implemented in C++ programming language and tested using a large real-life distribution system. The results show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide a set of feasible and good quality solutions in a suitable time for the problem. © 2011 IEEE.

Traffic flow breakdown prediction using feature reduction through Rough-Neuro fuzzy Networks

The prediction of the traffic behavior could help to make decision about the routing process, as well as enables gains on effectiveness and productivity on the physical distribution. This need motivated the search for technological improvements in the Routing performance in metropolitan areas. The purpose of this paper is to present computational evidences that Artificial Neural Network ANN could be use to predict the traffic behavior in a metropolitan area such So Paulo (around 16 million inhabitants). The proposed methodology involves the application of Rough-Fuzzy Sets to define inference morphology for insertion of the behavior of Dynamic Routing into a structured rule basis, without human expert aid. The dynamics of the traffic parameters are described through membership functions. Rough Sets Theory identifies the attributes that are important, and suggest Fuzzy relations to be inserted on a Rough Neuro Fuzzy Network (RNFN) type Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and type Radial Basis Function (RBF), in order to get an optimal surface response. To measure the performance of the proposed RNFN, the responses of the unreduced rule basis are compared with the reduced rule one. The results show that by making use of the Feature Reduction through RNFN, it is possible to reduce the need for human expert in the construction of the Fuzzy inference mechanism in such flow process like traffic breakdown. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term planning of electric power distribution networks using multiobjective genetic algorithim

The high active and reactive power level demanded by the distribution systems, the growth of consuming centers, and the long lines of the distribution systems result in voltage variations in the busses compromising the quality of energy supplied. To ensure the energy quality supplied in the distribution system short-term planning, some devices and actions are used to implement an effective control of voltage, reactive power, and power factor of the network. Among these devices and actions are the voltage regulators (VRs) and capacitor banks (CBs), as well as exchanging the conductors sizes of distribution lines. This paper presents a methodology based on the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) for optimized allocation of VRs, CBs, and exchange of conductors in radial distribution systems. The Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm (MGA) is aided by an inference process developed using fuzzy logic, which applies specialized knowledge to achieve the reduction of the search space for the allocation of CBs and VRs.

Metaheurística particle swarm utilizada para alocação ótima de bancos de capacitores em sistemas de distribuição radial

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo de solvatocromismo em líquidos moleculares orgânicos via método seqüencial Monte Carlo/Mecânica Quântica

Utilizou-se o método seqüencial Monte Carlo / Mecânica Quântica para obterem-se os desvios de solvatocromismo e os momentos de dipolo dos sistemas de moléculas orgânicas: Uracil em meio aquoso, -Caroteno em Ácido Oléico, Ácido Ricinoléico em metanol e em Etanol e Ácido Oléico em metanol e em Etanol. As otimizações das geometrias e as distribuições de cargas foram obtidas através da Teoria do Funcional Densidade com o funcional B3LYP e os conjuntos de funções de base 6-31G(d) para todas as moléculas exceto para a água e Uracil, as quais, foram utilizadas o conjunto de funções de base 6-311++G(d,p). No tratamento clássico, Monte Carlo, aplicou-se o algoritmo Metropólis através do programa DICE. A separação de configurações estatisticamente relevantes para os cálculos das propriedades médias foi implementada com a utilização da função de auto-correlação calculada para cada sistema. A função de distribuição radial dos líquidos moleculares foi utilizada para a separação da primeira camada de solvatação, a qual, estabelece a principal interação entre soluto-solvente. As configurações relevantes da primeira camada de solvatação de cada sistema foram submetidas a cálculos quânticos a nível semi-empírico com o método ZINDO/S-CI. Os espectros de absorção foram obtidos para os solutos em fase gasosa e para os sistemas de líquidos moleculares comentados. Os momentos de dipolo elétrico dos mesmos também foram obtidos. Todas as bandas dos espectros de absorção dos sistemas tiveram um desvio para o azul, exceto a segunda banda do sistema de Beta-Caroteno em Ácido Oléico que apresentou um desvio para o vermelho. Os resultados encontrados apresentam-se em excelente concordância com os valores experimentais encontrados na literatura. Todos os sistemas tiveram aumento no momento de dipolo elétrico devido às moléculas dos solventes serem moléculas polares. Os sistemas de ácidos graxos em álcoois apresentaram resultados muito semelhantes, ou seja, os ácidos graxos mencionados possuem comportamentos espectroscópicos semelhantes submetidos aos mesmos solventes. As simulações através do método seqüencial Monte Carlo / Mecânica Quântica estudadas demonstraram que a metodologia é eficaz para a obtenção das propriedades espectroscópicas dos líquidos moleculares analisados.

A mixed-integer quadratically-constrained programming model for the distribution system expansion planning

This paper presents a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained programming (MIQCP) model to solve the distribution system expansion planning (DSEP) problem. The DSEP model considers the construction/reinforcement of substations, the construction/reconductoring of circuits, the allocation of fixed capacitors banks and the radial topology modification. As the DSEP problem is a very complex mixed-integer non-linear programming problem, it is convenient to reformulate it like a MIQCP problem; it is demonstrated that the proposed formulation represents the steady-state operation of a radial distribution system. The proposed MIQCP model is a convex formulation, which allows to find the optimal solution using optimization solvers. Test systems of 23 and 54 nodes and one real distribution system of 136 nodes were used to show the efficiency of the proposed model in comparison with other DSEP models available in the specialized literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Localização e preço de contrato ótimo da geração distribuída em sistemas de distribuição radiais de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Heurística especializada aplicada na alocação ótima de bancos de capacitores em sistemas de distribuição radial

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

End-to-end Distance Distribution in Fluorescent Derivatives of Bradykinin in Interaction with Lipid Vesicles

Cellular membranes have relevant roles in processes related to proteases like human kallikreins and cathepsins. As enzyme and substrate may interact with cell membranes and associated co-factors, it is important to take into account the behavior of peptide substrates in the lipid environment. In this paper we report an study based on energy transfer in two bradykinin derived peptides labeled with the donor-acceptor pair Abz/Eddnp (ortho-aminobenzoic acid/N-[2,4-dinitrophenyl]-ethylenediamine). Time-resolved fluorescence experiments were performed in phosphate buffer and in the presence of large unilamelar vesicles of phospholipids, and of micelles of sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS). The decay kinetics were analyzed using the program CONTIN to obtain end-to-end distance distribution functions f(r). Despite of the large difference in the number of residues the end-to-end distance of the longer peptide (9 amino acid residues) is only 20 % larger than the values obtained for the shorter peptide (5 amino acid residues). The proline residue, in position 4 of the bradykinin sequence promotes a turn in the longer peptide chain, shortening its end-to-end distance. The surfactant SDS has a strong disorganizing effect, substantially broadening the distance distributions, while temperature increase has mild effects in the flexibility of the chains, causing small increase in the distribution width. The interaction with phospholipid vesicles stabilizes more compact conformations, decreasing end-to-end distances in the peptides. Anisotropy experiments showed that rotational diffusion was not severely affected by the interaction with the vesicles, suggesting a location for the peptides in the surface region of the bilayer, a result consistent with small effect of lipid phase transition on the peptides conformations.

Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Direct Vlasov simulations of electron-attracting cylindrical Langmuir probes in flowing plasmas

Current collection by positively polarized cylindrical Langmuir probes immersed in flowing plasmas is analyzed using a non-stationary direct Vlasov-Poisson code. A detailed description of plasma density spatial structure as a function of the probe-to-plasma relative velocity U is presented. Within the considered parametric domain, the well-known electron density maximum close to the probe is weakly affected by U. However, in the probe wake side, the electron density minimum becomes deeper as U increases and a rarified plasma region appears. Sheath radius is larger at the wake than at the front side. Electron and ion distribution functions show specific features that are the signature of probe motion. In particular, the ion distribution function at the probe front side exhibits a filament with positive radial velocity. It corresponds to a population of rammed ions that were reflected by the electric field close to the positively biased probe. Numerical simulations reveal that two populations of trapped electrons exist: one orbiting around the probe and the other with trajectories confined at the probe front side. The latter helps to neutralize the reflected ions, thus explaining a paradox in past probe theory.

Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Bridging large and small scales of water models using hybrid Molecular Dynamics/Fluctuating Hydrodynamics framework

This thesis presents a two-dimensional water model investigation and development of a multiscale method for the modelling of large systems, such as virus in water or peptide immersed in the solvent. We have implemented a two-dimensional ‘Mercedes Benz’ (MB) or BN2D water model using Molecular Dynamics. We have studied its dynamical and structural properties dependence on the model’s parameters. For the first time we derived formulas to calculate thermodynamic properties of the MB model in the microcanonical (NVE) ensemble. We also derived equations of motion in the isothermal–isobaric (NPT) ensemble. We have analysed the rotational degree of freedom of the model in both ensembles. We have developed and implemented a self-consistent multiscale method, which is able to communicate micro- and macro- scales. This multiscale method assumes, that matter consists of the two phases. One phase is related to micro- and the other to macroscale. We simulate the macro scale using Landau Lifshitz-Fluctuating Hydrodynamics, while we describe the microscale using Molecular Dynamics. We have demonstrated that the communication between the disparate scales is possible without introduction of fictitious interface or approximations which reduce the accuracy of the information exchange between the scales. We have investigated control parameters, which were introduced to control the contribution of each phases to the matter behaviour. We have shown, that microscales inherit dynamical properties of the macroscales and vice versa, depending on the concentration of each phase. We have shown, that Radial Distribution Function is not altered and velocity autocorrelation functions are gradually transformed, from Molecular Dynamics to Fluctuating Hydrodynamics description, when phase balance is changed. In this work we test our multiscale method for the liquid argon, BN2D and SPC/E water models. For the SPC/E water model we investigate microscale fluctuations which are computed using advanced mapping technique of the small scales to the large scales, which was developed by Voulgarakisand et. al.

Applications of Radial Basis Neural Networks for Area Forest

This paper proposes a new method using radial basis neural networks in order to find the classification and the recognition of trees species for forest inventories. This method computes the wood volume using a set of data easily obtained. The results that are obtained improve the used classic and statistical models.