How Much Older Do You Get When a Wrinkle Appears on Your Face? Modifying Age Estimates by Number of Wrinkles

The present study investigated the influence of wrinkles on facial age judgments. In Experiment 1, preadolescents, young adults, and middle-aged adults made categorical age judgments for male and female faces. The qualitative (type of wrinkle) and quantitative (density of wrinkles and depth of furrows) contributions of wrinkles were analyzed. Results indicated that the greater the number of wrinkles and the depth of furrows, the older a face was rated. The roles of the gender of the face and the age of the participants were discussed. In Experiment 2, participants performed relative age judgments by comparing pairs of faces. Results revealed that the number of wrinkles had more influence on the perceived facial age than the type of wrinkle. A MDS analysis showed the main dimensions on which participants based their judgments, namely, the number of wrinkles and the depth of furrows. We conclude that the quantitative component is more likely to increase perceived facial age. Nevertheless, other variables, such as the gender of the face and the age of the participants, also seem to be involved in the age estimation process.

Dietary trends: Estimates from food supply and survey data

Objective: To illustrate methodological issues involved in estimating dietary trends in populations using data obtained from various sources in Australia in the 1980s and 1990s. Methods: Estimates of absolute and relative change in consumption of selected food items were calculated using national data published annually on the national food supply for 1982-83 to 1992-93 and responses to food frequency questions in two population based risk factor surveys in 1983 and 1994 in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. The validity of estimated food quantities obtained from these inexpensive sources at the beginning of the period was assessed by comparison with data from a national dietary survey conducted in 1983 using 24 h recall. Results: Trend estimates from the food supply data and risk factor survey data were in good agreement for increases in consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables and breakfast food and decreases in butter, margarine, sugar and alcohol. Estimates for trends in milk, eggs and bread consumption, however, were inconsistent. Conclusions: Both data sources can be used for monitoring progress towards national nutrition goals based on selected food items provided that some limitations are recognized. While data collection methods should be consistent over time they also need to allow for changes in the food supply (for example the introduction of new varieties such as low-fat dairy products). From time to time the trends derived from these inexpensive data sources should be compared with data derived from more detailed and quantitative estimates of dietary intake.

Two estimates concerning asymptotics of the minimizations of a Ginzburg-Landau functional

We prove two asymptotical estimates for minimizers of a Ginzburg-Landau functional of the form integral(Omega) [1/2 \del u\(2) + 1/4 epsilon(2) (1 - \u\(2))(2) W (x)] dx.

Robust algorithms for solving stochastic partial differential equations

A robust semi-implicit central partial difference algorithm for the numerical solution of coupled stochastic parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) is described. This can be used for calculating correlation functions of systems of interacting stochastic fields. Such field equations can arise in the description of Hamiltonian and open systems in the physics of nonlinear processes, and may include multiplicative noise sources. The algorithm can be used for studying the properties of nonlinear quantum or classical field theories. The general approach is outlined and applied to a specific example, namely the quantum statistical fluctuations of ultra-short optical pulses in chi((2)) parametric waveguides. This example uses a non-diagonal coherent state representation, and correctly predicts the sub-shot noise level spectral fluctuations observed in homodyne detection measurements. It is expected that the methods used wilt be applicable for higher-order correlation functions and other physical problems as well. A stochastic differencing technique for reducing sampling errors is also introduced. This involves solving nonlinear stochastic parabolic PDEs in combination with a reference process, which uses the Wigner representation in the example presented here. A computer implementation on MIMD parallel architectures is discussed. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

Ramp and constant power trials produce equivalent critical power estimates

The standard critical power test protocol on the cycle prescribes a series of trials to exhaustion, each at a different but constant power setting. Recently the protocol has been modified and applied to a series of trials to exhaustion each at a different ramp incremental rate. This study was undertaken to compare critical power and anaerobic work capacity estimates in the same group of subjects when derived from the two protocols. Ten male subjects of mixed athletic ability cycled to exhaustion on eight occasions in randomized order over a 3-wk period. Four trials were performed at differing constant power settings and four trials on differing ramp incremental rates. Both critical power and anaerobic work capacity were estimated for each subject by curve fitting of the ramp model and of three versions of the constant power model. After adjusting for inter-subject variability, no significant differences were detected between critical power estimates or between anaerobic work capacity estimates from any model formulation or from the two protocols. It is concluded that both the ramp and constant power protocols produce equivalent estimates for critical power and anaerobic work capacity.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Immunization of neonatal mice with LAMP/p55 HIV gag DNA elicits robust immune responses that last to adulthood

Successful T cell priming in early postnatal life that can generate effective long-lasting responses until adulthood is critical in HIV vaccination strategies because it prevents early sexual initiation and breastfeeding transmission of HIV. A chimeric DNA vaccine encoding p55 HIV gag associated with lysosome-associated membrane protein 1 (LAMP-1; which drives the antigen to the MIIC compartment), has been used to enhance cellular and humoral antigen-specific responses in adult mice and macaques. Herein, we investigated LAMP-1/gag vaccine immunogenicity in the neonatal period in mice and its ability to generate long-lasting effects. Neonatal vaccination with chimeric LAMP/gag generated stronger Gag-specific immune responses, as measured by the breadth of the Gag peptide-specific IFN-gamma, proliferative responsiveness, cytokine production and antibody production, all of which revealed activation of CD4+ T cells as well as the generation of a more robust CTL response compared to gag vaccine alone. To induce long-lived T and B cell memory responses, it was necessary to immunize neonates with the chimeric IAMP/gag DNA vaccine. The LAMP/gag DNA vaccine strategy could be particularly useful for generating an anti-HIV immune response in the early postnatal period capable of inducing long-term immunological memory. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Interethnic Admixture in the Brazilian Population Using a Panel of 24 X-Linked Insertion/Deletion Markers

Objectives. In this study, we aimed to identify ancestry informative haplotypes and make interethnic admixture estimates using X-chromosome markers. Methods. A significant sample (461 individuals) of European, African, and Native American populations was analyzed, and four linkage groups were identified. The data obtained were used to describe the ancestral contribution of populations from four different geographical regions of Brazil (745 individuals). Results. The global interethnic admixture estimates of the four mixed populations under investigation were calculated applying all the 24 insertion/deletion (INDEL) markers. In the North region, a larger Native Americans ancestry was observed (42%). The Northeast and Southeast regions had smaller Native American contribution (27% in both of them). In the South region, there was a large European contribution (46%). Conclusions. The estimates obtained are compatible with expectations for a colonization model with biased admixture between European men (one X chromosome) and Native American and African women (two X chromosomes), so the 24 X-INDEL panel described here can be a useful to make admixture interethnic estimates in Brazilian populations. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 22:849-852,2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models

Numerical optimisation methods are being more commonly applied to agricultural systems models, to identify the most profitable management strategies. The available optimisation algorithms are reviewed and compared, with literature and our studies identifying evolutionary algorithms (including genetic algorithms) as superior in this regard to simulated annealing, tabu search, hill-climbing, and direct-search methods. Results of a complex beef property optimisation, using a real-value genetic algorithm, are presented. The relative contributions of the range of operational options and parameters of this method are discussed, and general recommendations listed to assist practitioners applying evolutionary algorithms to the solution of agricultural systems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

Estimates of the real structured radius of stability of linear dynamic systems

A question is examined as to estimates of the norms of perturbations of a linear stable dynamic system, under which the perturbed system remains stable in a situation R:here a perturbation has a fixed structure.

Molluscan stable isotope temperature estimates of the southwestern Ross Sea during the early oligocene and early miocene, CRP-2/2A and CRP-3, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica

Stable isotope analyses of marine bivalve growth increment samples have been used to estimate early Oligocene (29.4 - 31.2) Ma and early Miocene (24.0 Ma) seafloor palaeotemperatures from the southwestern continental margin of the Ross Sea. Measured δ18O values average +2.5‰ in the early Miocene and range between +1.26 to +3.24‰ in the early Oligocene. The results show that palaeoceanographic conditions in McMurdo Sound during the mid-Cenozoic were significantly different from those of today. The minimum estimated spring through late summer seasonal temperature range was 3°C during the early Miocene and between 1 and 5°C during the early Oligocene. This compares to the equivalent modern day range of

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.