Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

Characteristics, complications, and gaps in evidence-based interventions in rheumatic heart disease: the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

AIMS: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) accounts for over a million premature deaths annually; however, there is little contemporary information on presentation, complications, and treatment.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective registry enrolled 3343 patients (median age 28 years, 66.2% female) presenting with RHD at 25 hospitals in 12 African countries, India, and Yemen between January 2010 and November 2012. The majority (63.9%) had moderate-to-severe multivalvular disease complicated by congestive heart failure (33.4%), pulmonary hypertension (28.8%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (21.8%), stroke (7.1%), infective endocarditis (4%), and major bleeding (2.7%). One-quarter of adults and 5.3% of children had decreased left ventricular (LV) systolic function; 23% of adults and 14.1% of children had dilated LVs. Fifty-five percent (n = 1761) of patients were on secondary antibiotic prophylaxis. Oral anti-coagulants were prescribed in 69.5% (n = 946) of patients with mechanical valves (n = 501), AF (n = 397), and high-risk mitral stenosis in sinus rhythm (n = 48). However, only 28.3% (n = 269) had a therapeutic international normalized ratio. Among 1825 women of childbearing age (12-51 years), only 3.6% (n = 65) were on contraception. The utilization of valvuloplasty and valve surgery was higher in upper-middle compared with lower-income countries.

CONCLUSION: Rheumatic heart disease patients were young, predominantly female, and had high prevalence of major cardiovascular complications. There is suboptimal utilization of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis, oral anti-coagulation, and contraception, and variations in the use of percutaneous and surgical interventions by country income level.

Relapsing Fever Borreliae: A Global Review

Relapsing fever borreliae were notorious and feared infectious agents that earned their place in history through their devastating impact as causes of both epidemic and endemic infection. More recently they are considered more as an oddity and their burden of infection is largely overshadowed by other infections such as malaria, which presents in a similar clinical way. Despite this, they remain the most common bacterial infection in some developing countries. Transmitted by soft ticks or lice, these fascinating spirochaetes have evolved a myriad of mechanisms to survive within their diverse environments.

Feasibility and clinical outcomes when using practice guidelines for evaluation of fever in returning travelers and migrants : a validation study.

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines for examining febrile patients presenting upon returning from the tropics were developed to assist primary care physicians in decision making. Because of the low level of evidence available in this field, there was a need to validate them and assess their feasibility in the context they have been designed for. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the study were to (1) evaluate physicians' adherence to recommendations; (2) investigate reasons for non-adherence; and (3) ensure good clinical outcome of patients, the ultimate goal being to improve the quality of the guidelines, in particular to tailor them for the needs of the target audience and population. METHODS: Physicians consulting the guidelines on the Internet (www.fevertravel.ch) were invited to participate in the study. Navigation through the decision chart was automatically recorded, including diagnostic tests performed, initial and final diagnoses, and clinical outcomes. The reasons for non-adherence were investigated and qualitative feedback was collected. RESULTS: A total of 539 physician/patient pairs were included in this study. Full adherence to guidelines was observed in 29% of the cases. Figure-specific adherence rate was 54.8%. The main reasons for non-adherence were as follows: no repetition of malaria tests (111/352) and no presumptive antibiotic treatment for febrile diarrhea (64/153) or abdominal pain without leukocytosis (46/101). Overall, 20% of diversions from guidelines were considered reasonable because there was an alternative presumptive diagnosis or the symptoms were mild, which means that the corrected adherence rate per case was 40.6% and corrected adherence per figure was 61.7%. No death was recorded and all complications could be attributed to the underlying illness rather than to adherence to guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines proved to be feasible, useful, and leading to good clinical outcomes. Almost one third of physicians strictly adhered to the guidelines. Other physicians used the guidelines not to forget specific diagnoses but finally diverged from the proposed attitudes. These diversions should be scrutinized for further refinement of the guidelines to better fit to physician and patient needs.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study.

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Practical illustrations of typhus fever of the common continued fever and of inflammatory diseases, &c.&c.

UANL

Should rituximab be considered as the first-choice treatment for severe autoimmune rheumatic diseases?

The present study aimed to assess the tolerance and efficacy of rituximab (RTX), a chimeric IgG1 monoclonal antibody directed against the CD20 receptor present in B lymphocytes, in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD). For this purpose, patients treated with RTX and their respective clinical charts were comprehensively examined. Indications for treatment were a refractory character of the disease, inefficacy or intolerance of other immunosuppressors. Activity indexes (SLEDAI, DAS28, and specific clinical manifestations) were used to evaluate efficacy. Serious side effects were also recorded. Seventy-four patients were included. Forty-three patients had systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 21 had rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 8 had Sjögren’s syndrome (SS), and 2 had Takayasu’s arteritis (TA). RTX was well-tolerated in 66 (89%) patients. In 8 patients (SLE = 3, SS = 3, RA = 2), serious side effects lead to discontinuation. The mean follow-up period was 12 ± 7.8 (2–35) months. The efficacy of RTX was registered in 58/66 (87%) patients, of whom 36 (83%) had SLE, 18/21 (85%) had RA, 3/8 (37%) had SS, and 1 had TA. The mean time of efficacy was 6.3 ± 5.1 weeks. A significant steroid-sparing effect was noticed in half of the patients. These results add further evidence for the use of RTX in AIRD. Based on its risk–benefit ratio, RTX might be used as the first-choice treatment for patients with severe AIRD.

Short Term Health Shocks and School Attendance: The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak in Colombia.

This paper makes use of a short, sharp, unexpected health shock in the form of the 2010 Colombian Dengue outbreak to examine the direct and indirect impact of negative health shocks on behaviour of households in affected areas. Our analysis combines data from several sources in order to obtain a comprehensive picture of the influence of the outbreak, and furthermore to understand the underlying mechanisms driving the effects. Our initial analysis indicates that the outbreak had a substantial negative effect on the health status of adults and adversely affected their ability to function as usual in their daily lives. In our aggregated school data, in areas with high levels of haemorrhagic Dengue we observe a reduction innational exam attendance (last year of secondary school) and on enrolment rates in primary education. Further analysis aims to exploit detailed individual level data to gain a more in depth understanding of the precise channels through which this disease influenced the behaviour and outcomes of the poor in Colombia.

Archive fever: the publishers' archive and the history of the novel

In recent years, archives have been increasingly important to literary scholarship. Drawing upon Derrida’s description of ‘archive fever’ as an always elusive search for origins, this chapter considers the theoretical and methodological issues of reading in the publishers’ archive, questioning what this brings to our histories of the novel. Through examples drawn from the archives of two British publishers – the Hogarth Press (1917-46) and Chatto & Windus (established 1873) – focussing on Virginia Woolf’s Flush (1933) and James Hanley’s The Furys (1935), the chapter assesses the implications of bringing book history to bear on literary history.

Detection of a New Yellow Fever Virus Lineage Within the South American Genotype I in Brazil

Nucleotide sequences of two regions of the genomes of 11 yellow fever virus (YFV) samples isolated from monkeys or humans with symptomatic yellow fever (YF) in Brazil in 2000,2004, and 2008 were determined with the objective of establishing the genotypes and studying the genetic variation. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis showed that sequences generated from strains from 2004 and 2008 formed a new subclade within the clade 1 of the South American genotype I. The new subgroup is here designated as 1E. Sequences of YFV strains recovered in 2000 belong to the subclade 1D, which comprises previously characterized YFV strains from Brazil. Molecular dating analyses suggested that the new subclade 1E started diversifying from 1D about 1975 and that the most recent 2004-2008 isolates arose about 1985. J. Med. Virol. 82:175-185, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.