Real estate and social inequality in Latin America: approaches in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia

Latin America is known as the most unequal region in the world, where extreme displays of wealth and exposure to scarcity lay bare in the urban landscape. Inequality is not just a social issue; it has considerable impact on economic development. This is because social inequality generates instability and conflict, which can create unsettling conditions for investment. At the macro level, social inequality can also present barriers to economic development, as most government policies and resources tend to be directed in solving social conflict rather than to promote and generate growth. This is one of the reasons usually cited in explaining the development gap between Latin America and other emerging economies, take East Asia for example - they have similar policies to those applied recently in Latin America, but are achieving better growth. The other reason cited is institutional; this includes governance as well as property rights and enforcement of contracts. The latter is the focus of this chapter.

The persistence of distance: a gravity model of European cross-border real estate development flows

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. Design/methodology/approach – Placing cross-border real estate development within the framework of foreign direct investment (FDI), conceptual complexities in characterizing the notional real estate developer are emphasized. Drawing upon a transaction database, this paper proxies cross-border real estate development flows with asset sales by developers. Findings – Much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of Central and Eastern Europe. Analysis suggests a complex range of determinants with physical distance remaining a consistent barrier to cross-border development flows. Originality/value – This analysis adds significant value in terms of understanding cross-border real estate development flows. In this study, a detailed examination of the issues based on a rigorous empirical analysis through gravity modelling is offered. The gravity framework is one of the most confirmed empirical regularities in international economics and commonly applied to trade, FDI, migration, foreign portfolio investment inter alia. This paper assesses the extent to which it provides useful insights into the pattern of cross-border real estate development flows.

The impact of cross-border real estate investment on commercial real estate capitalisation rates

This study examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on the US office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001-2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions provided by Real Capital Analytics, we model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. We have employed several econometric techniques to explore the data, potential estimation biases, and test robustness of the results. The results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 US metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis points increase in foreign share of total investment in a US metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis points decrease in the market cap rate.

Does foreign investment affect US office real estate prices?

his article examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on U.S. office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001–2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions, the authors model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. Employing several econometric techniques to analyze the data, the results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 U.S. metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis point increase in foreign share of total investment in a U.S. metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis point decrease in the market cap rate.

Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002

During the period of 1990-2002 US households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369% appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock market assets followed by a 55% decline. However, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data from 1990-2005, traditional life-cycle approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at best; and (ii) life-cycle models that rely on aggregate measures of wealth cannot explain why consumption did not collapse when the value of stock market assets declined so dramatically. We address both puzzles by decomposing wealth according to the liquidity of household assets. We find that the significant appreciation in the value of real estate assets that occurred after the peak of the wealth cycle helped sustain consumer spending from 2001 to 2005.

The impact of business outsourcing on corporate real estate in India

Driven by Western companies' requirements for efficiency and effectiveness, a trend towards outsourcing of business activities to India and other low-cost countries commenced in the early 1990s and has continued to grow at a surprisingly fast pace. In a relatively short timeframe India has become a global hub for back-office services, although the effect on the urban cities is yet to be fully comprehended. As American and European companies continue to relocate their information technology services and other back office works to the subcontinent, there has been a considerable flow-on effect on Indian corporate real estate. This paper addresses two key questions. Firstly, the factors important for Western companies' outsourcing of organisational activities to India, and secondly, the effect of business outsourcing on corporate real estate locational requirements in India. A survey of corporate real estate representatives in India and the UK was conducted with the results providing an insight into the present state and possible future direction of outsourcing for India. This research presents a unique insight into the impacts of Western business outsourcing on corporate real estate in India, and presents findings that are useful to both organisations seeking to relocate business activities to India and for property market analysts looking to understand drivers behind this sustained demand for Indian corporate real estate.

The structural and behaviourial barriers to sustainable real estate development

Sustainable real estate development appears, on literal translation of both terms, to be an oxymoron - however it is a concept that the real estate profession needs to embrace knowledgably. On one hand it can be argued that real estate development is required for continued economic growth and the adoption of sustainability measures is required to mitigate climate change and global warming. Over the last few years there has been growth in the number of sustainability tools available to designers and operators of buildings. For example, in the US the LEED scheme enables designers to assess the environmental impact of their design and to benchmark the sustainability of the design against industry recognised criteria. LEED follows a similar format to the UK’s Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) introduced in 1990 and the Australian ‘GreenStar’ introduced in 2004. Even though there are an increasing number of sustainability tools available to designers, it still remains that the degree of uptake of the tools has been sporadic. This paper discusses the barriers to sustainable real estate development. Firstly it identifies the barriers to uptake and secondly it establishes the structural barriers in the market which prevent the wider uptake of tools.

Consolidation within the Australian real estate investment trust sector : an evaluation of the impact on unitholder returns

Mergers and acquisitions within the Australian-real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) sector have become a noticeable trend in the last decade. Utilising
event study methodology, 36 successful A-REIT mergers and acquisitions
between January 1995 and December 2008 were examined. Both target and
bidding shareholders experience positive excess returns of 4.27% and 0.54%
respectively over the 41 day event window [−20, +20]. Analysis indicates that the
cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for bidding firms are considerably greater
than previous research suggests. This study finds higher bidder CARs when scrip
or a combination of scrip and cash is used to finance the acquisition. We also find
that the relative size or the size of the acquirer have a positive and significant
impact on the excess returns of bidding A-REITs. This suggests that the
synergistic benefits from the acquisition are a result of economies of scale and
increased market power. There is also some evidence that the relative size and
method of payment influence the CARs of target firms during the event window.

Women directors on boards of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts

Purpose – This is the first paper which aims to investigate factors that might influence the gender composition of boards of directors of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs).

Design/methodology/approach – This study follows Mateos de Cabo, Gimeno and Nieto and the gender diversity literature and investigates the existence and number of women directors on the boards of directors of 37 A-REITs from 2006 to 2011.

Findings – There is evidence that larger (by market capitalization) A-REITs are more likely to employ a woman director and that A-REITs with larger boards are more likely to employ a woman director and indeed more women directors. It also appears that A-REITs whose head office is in Sydney are more likely to employ a woman director and also more women directors.

Practical implications – Women seeking to be engaged as directors of A-REITs are more likely to be employed by larger A-REITs (by market capitalization), those with larger boards and those located in Sydney.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the existing literature on gender diversity by examining the factors that appear to influence the employment of women on A-REIT Boards.

Análise da possível expansão internacional de empresas brasileiras de real estate residencial para o mercado costarriquenho, uma abordagem SWOT.

Devido ao crescimento e à experiência adquirida pelas empresas brasileiras de real estate residencial nos últimos anos, e às características próprias desse setor, os mercados internacionais poderiam ser considerados como possíveis alvos para essas empresas. Por exemplo, no mercado residencial costarriquenho, incentivos para projetos residenciais de alta densidade populacional, reformas nos processos para a obtenção dos alvarás de construção e mudanças demográficas e culturais, parecem propiciar um ambiente favorável para empresas dessa indústria. Portanto, o objetivo do presente trabalho é estudar uma possível expansão geográfica de empresas brasileiras de real estate no mercado residencial costarriquenho, a partir da estruturação de uma análise de abordagem SWOT dos elementos necessários para tal incursão. Para isso, realizou-se uma revisão bibliográfica na busca dos elementos estratégicos do ambiente interno de empresas de real estate residencial que devem ser considerados para processos de internacionalização, identificando-se 12 forças e 10 fraquezas desta revisão. Ademais, analisou-se: o mercado residencial; a macroeconomia, e as conjunturas político-legais e socioculturais da Costa Rica, na procura de fatores que devem ser tomados em conta por parte de empresas de real estate ao ingressar nesse país, distinguindo-se 24 oportunidades e 20 ameaças dessa análise. Para complementar o estudo, foi avaliada a atratividade do mercado residencial costarriquenho para receber investimentos por onze importantes empresas do setor de real estate residencial brasileiro, por meio de um questionário estruturado com os elementos identificados na primeira parte do trabalho. Os resultados mostraram que, no momento da avaliação, as empresas entrevistadas deram maior atenção ao tamanho do mercado e às características do sistema financeiro para o setor residencial, e identificaram a carência do conhecimento local e sua cultura empresarial, como os elementos que dificultariam sua internacionalização. Conclui-se sobre a possível internacionalização de empresas brasileiras de real estate residencial para o mercado da Costa Rica, que elementos desde uma perspectiva econômica racional e principalmente contingencial definem essa estratégia, não sendo viável nem vantajoso idealizar um processo de internacionalização nesse mercado, devido às atuais condições de seus mercados locais e aos elementos do ambiente interno que várias dessas empresas apresentam.

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Securitization of Lodging Real Estate Finance

In the early 1990s, the U.S. lodging industry witnessed a severe shortage of debt capital as traditional lenders exited the market. During this period hotel lending was revolutionized by the emergence of real estate debt securities. The author discusses key factors which have affected the growth and development of commercial mortgage backed securities and their changing role as a significant source of debt capital to the lodging industry.

Findings from the 2015 Institutional Real Estate Capital Allocations Monitor

Since 2013, the Baker Program in Real Estate and Hodes Weill & Associates have co-sponsored the Institutional Real Estate Capital Allocations Monitor (the “Allocations Monitor”). The Allocations Monitor was created to conduct a comprehensive annual assessment of institutional allocations to real estate investments through analyzing trends and collecting survey responses of institutional portfolios and allocations by region, type, and size of institution. The Allocations Monitor reports on the role of real estate investments in institutional portfolios, and the impact of institutional allocation trends on the investment management industry.