A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structure

The evolution of the Arctic polar vortex during observed major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is investigated for the period 1957-2002, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) and temperature fields. Time-lag composites of vertically weighted PV, calculated relative to the SSW onset time, are derived for both vortex displacement SSWs and vortex splitting SSWs, by averaging over the 15 recorded displacement and 13 splitting events. The evolving vertical structure of the polar vortex during a typical SSW of each type is clearly illustrated by plotting an isosurface of the composite PV field, and is shown to be very close to that observed during representative individual events. Results are verified by comparison with an elliptical diagnostic vortex moment technique. For both types of SSW, little variation is found between individual events in the orientation of the developing vortex relative to the underlying topography, i.e. the location of the vortex during SSWs of each type is largely fixed in relation to the Earth’s surface. During each type of SSW, the vortex is found to have a distinctive vertical structure. Vortex splitting events are typically barotropic, with the vortex split occurring near-simultaneously over a large altitude range (20-40 km). In the majority of cases, of the two daughter vortices formed, it is the ‘Siberian’ vortex that dominates over its ‘Canadian’ counterpart. In contrast, displacement events are characterized by a very clear baroclinic structure; the vortex tilts significantly westward with height, so that the top and bottom of the vortex are separated by nearly 180◦ longitude before the upper vortex is sheared away and destroyed.

Airborne measurements of the spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition across Europe and evolution of the organic fraction

The spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition and the evolution of the Organic Aerosol (OA) fraction is investigated based upon airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition in the planetary boundary layer across Europe. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). A range of sampling conditions were evaluated, including relatively clean background conditions, polluted conditions in North-Western Europe and the near-field to far-field outflow from such conditions. Ammonium nitrate and OA were found to be the dominant chemical components of the sub-micron aerosol burden, with mass fractions ranging from 20--50% each. Ammonium nitrate was found to dominate in North-Western Europe during episodes of high pollution, reflecting the enhanced NO_x and ammonia sources in this region. OA was ubiquitous across Europe and concentrations generally exceeded sulphate by 30--160%. A factor analysis of the OA burden was performed in order to probe the evolution across this large range of spatial and temporal scales. Two separate Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA) components were identified; one representing an aged-OOA, termed Low Volatility-OOA and another representing fresher-OOA, termed Semi Volatile-OOA on the basis of their mass spectral similarity to previous studies. The factors derived from different flights were not chemically the same but rather reflect the range of OA composition sampled during a particular flight. Significant chemical processing of the OA was observed downwind of major sources in North-Western Europe, with the LV-OOA component becoming increasingly dominant as the distance from source and photochemical processing increased. The measurements suggest that the aging of OA can be viewed as a continuum, with a progression from a less oxidised, semi-volatile component to a highly oxidised, less-volatile component. Substantial amounts of pollution were observed far downwind of continental Europe, with OA and ammonium nitrate being the major constituents of the sub-micron aerosol burden. Such anthropogenically perturbed air masses can significantly perturb regional climate far downwind of major source regions.

Phylogeny, function, and evolution of the cupins, a structurally conserved, functionally diverse superfamily of proteins

The cupin superfamily is a group of functionally diverse proteins that are found in all three kingdoms of life, Archaea, Eubacteria, and Eukaryota. These proteins have a characteristic signature domain comprising two histidine- containing motifs separated by an intermotif region of variable length. This domain consists of six beta strands within a conserved beta barrel structure. Most cupins, such as microbial phosphomannose isomerases (PMIs), AraC- type transcriptional regulators, and cereal oxalate oxidases (OXOs), contain only a single domain, whereas others, such as seed storage proteins and oxalate decarboxylases (OXDCs), are bi-cupins with two pairs of motifs. Although some cupins have known functions and have been characterized at the biochemical level, the majority are known only from gene cloning or sequencing projects. In this study, phylogenetic analyses were conducted on the conserved domain to investigate the evolution and structure/function relationships of cupins, with an emphasis on single- domain plant germin-like proteins (GLPs). An unrooted phylogeny of cupins from a wide spectrum of evolutionary lineages identified three main clusters, microbial PMIs, OXDCs, and plant GLPs. The sister group to the plant GLPs in the global analysis was then used to root a phylogeny of all available plant GLPs. The resulting phylogeny contained three main clades, classifying the GLPs into distinct subfamilies. It is suggested that these subfamilies correlate with functional categories, one of which contains the bifunctional barley germin that has both OXO and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity. It is proposed that GLPs function primarily as SODs, enzymes that protect plants from the effects of oxidative stress. Closer inspection of the DNA sequence encoding the intermotif region in plant GLPs showed global conservation of thymine in the second codon position, a character associated with hydrophobic residues. Since many of these proteins are multimeric and enzymatically inactive in their monomeric state, this conservation of hydrophobicity is thought to be associated with the need to maintain the various monomer- monomer interactions. The type of structure-based predictive analysis presented in this paper is an important approach for understanding gene function and evolution in an era when genomes from a wide range of organisms are being sequenced at a rapid rate.

Microbial relatives of the seed storage proteins of higher plants: conservation of structure and diversification of function during evolution of the cupin superfamily.

This review summarizes the recent discovery of the cupin superfamily (from the Latin term "cupa," a small barrel) of functionally diverse proteins that initially were limited to several higher plant proteins such as seed storage proteins, germin (an oxalate oxidase), germin-like proteins, and auxin-binding protein. Knowledge of the three-dimensional structure of two vicilins, seed proteins with a characteristic beta-barrel core, led to the identification of a small number of conserved residues and thence to the discovery of several microbial proteins which share these key amino acids. In particular, there is a highly conserved pattern of two histidine-containing motifs with a varied intermotif spacing. This cupin signature is found as a central component of many microbial proteins including certain types of phosphomannose isomerase, polyketide synthase, epimerase, and dioxygenase. In addition, the signature has been identified within the N-terminal effector domain in a subgroup of bacterial AraC transcription factors. As well as these single-domain cupins, this survey has identified other classes of two-domain bicupins including bacterial gentisate 1, 2-dioxygenases and 1-hydroxy-2-naphthoate dioxygenases, fungal oxalate decarboxylases, and legume sucrose-binding proteins. Cupin evolution is discussed from the perspective of the structure-function relationships, using data from the genomes of several prokaryotes, especially Bacillus subtilis. Many of these functions involve aspects of sugar metabolism and cell wall synthesis and are concerned with responses to abiotic stress such as heat, desiccation, or starvation. Particular emphasis is also given to the oxalate-degrading enzymes from microbes, their biological significance, and their value in a range of medical and other applications.

Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximate to 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximate to 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximate to 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Life-history evolution under a production constraint

The recently formulated metabolic theory of ecology has profound implications for the evolution of life histories. Metabolic rate constrains the scaling of production with body mass, so that larger organisms have lower rates of production on a mass-specific basis than smaller ones. Here, we explore the implications of this constraint for life-history evolution. We show that for a range of very simple life histories, Darwinian fitness is equal to birth rate minus death rate. So, natural selection maximizes birth and production rates and minimizes death rates. This implies that decreased body size will generally be favored because it increases production, so long as mortality is unaffected. Alternatively, increased body size will be favored only if it decreases mortality or enhances reproductive success sufficiently to override the preexisting production constraint. Adaptations that may favor evolution of larger size include niche shifts that decrease mortality by escaping predation or that increase fecundity by exploiting new abundant food sources. These principles can be generalized to better understand the intimate relationship between the genetic currency of evolution and the metabolic currency of ecology.

The evolution of sensory placodes

The vertebrate cranial sensory placodes are ectodermal embryonic patches that give rise to sensory receptor cells of the peripheral paired sense organs and to neurons in the cranial sensory ganglia. Their differentiation and the genetic pathways that underlay their development are now well understood. Their evolutionary history, however, has remained obscure. Recent molecular work, performed on close relatives of the vertebrates, demonstrated that some sensory placodes (namely the adenohypophysis, the olfactory, and accoustico-lateralis placodes) first evolved at the base of the chordate lineage, while others might be specific to vertebrates. Combined with morphological and cellular fate data, these results also suggest that the sensory placodes of the ancestor of all chordates differentiated into a wide range of structures, most likely to fit the lifestyle and environment of each species.

Evolution or extinction? Reflections on the future of research in educational leadership and management

Consideration of the quality, relevance and utility of research in educational leadership and management has been a growing concern of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, but there is little agreement about its current state or priorities for development. The article reflects on the key criticisms that have been made of research in educational leadership and management in this issue, and elsewhere. It considers how we might begin to devise better ways of understanding its audiences, judging its quality and identifying priorities for the future. It argues that the research reflects its capture by those with particular interests or values, and impacts in ways which are complex and indirect. If educational leadership and management research is to be secure in its perceived value and contribution in the future, several developments are needed, including a greater emphasis on interdisciplinarity, an expansion of the range of methodologies, particularly qualtitative studies; and these shifts must be evident in training researchers as well as in the conduct of research.

Exploration vs exploitation in differential evolution

Differential Evolution (DE) is a tool for efficient optimisation, and it belongs to the class of evolutionary algorithms, which include Evolution Strategies and Genetic Algorithms. DE algorithms work well when the population covers the entire search space, and they have shown to be effective on a large range of classical optimisation problems. However, an undesirable behaviour was detected when all the members of the population are in a basin of attraction of a local optimum (local minimum or local maximum), because in this situation the population cannot escape from it. This paper proposes a modification of the standard mechanisms in DE algorithm in order to change the exploration vs. exploitation balance to improve its behaviour.

The Ferritin-like superfamily: evolution of the biological iron storeman from a rubrerythrin-like ancestor

Background: The Ferritins are part of the extensive ‘Ferritin-like superfamily’ which have diverse functions but are linked by the presence of a common four-helical bundle domain. The role performed by Ferritins as the cellular repository of excess iron is unique. In many ways Ferritins act as tiny organelles in their ability to secrete iron away from the delicate machinery of the cell, and then to release it again in a controlled fashion avoiding toxicity. The Ferritins are ancient proteins, being common in all three domains of life. This ubiquity reflects the key contribution that Ferritins provide in achieving iron homeostasis. Scope of the review: This review compares the features of the different Ferritins and considers how they, and other members of the Ferritin-like superfamily, have evolved. It also considers relevant features of the eleven other known families within the Ferritin-like superfamily, particularly the highly diverse rubrerythrins. Major conclusions: The Ferritins have travelled a considerable evolutionary journey, being derived from far more simplistic rubrerythrin-like molecules which play roles in defence against toxic oxygen species. The forces of evolution have moulded such molecules into three distinct types of iron storing (or detoxifying) protein: the classical and universal 24-meric ferritins; the haem-containing 24-meric bacterioferritins of prokaryotes; and the prokaryotic 12-meric Dps proteins. These three Ferritin types are similar, but also possess unique properties that distinguish them and enable then to achieve their specific physiological purposes. General significance: A wide range of biological functions have evolved from a relatively simple structural unit.

Quantification of chemical and physical processes influencing ozone during long-range transport using a trajectory ensemble

During long-range transport, many distinct processes – including photochemistry, deposition, emissions and mixing – contribute to the transformation of air mass composition. Partitioning the effects of different processes can be useful when considering the sensitivity of chemical transformation to, for example, a changing environment or anthropogenic influence. However, transformation is not observed directly, since mixing ratios are measured, and models must be used to relate changes to processes. Here, four cases from the ITCT-Lagrangian 2004 experiment are studied. In each case, aircraft intercepted a distinct air mass several times during transport over the North Atlantic, providing a unique dataset and quantifying the net changes in composition from all processes. A new framework is presented to deconstruct the change in O3 mixing ratio (Δ O3) into its component processes, which were not measured directly, taking into account the uncertainty in measurements, initial air mass variability and its time evolution. The results show that the net chemical processing (Δ O3chem) over the whole simulation is greater than net physical processing (Δ O3phys) in all cases. This is in part explained by cancellation effects associated with mixing. In contrast, each case is in a regime of either net photochemical destruction (lower tropospheric transport) or production (an upper tropospheric biomass burning case). However, physical processes influence O3 indirectly through addition or removal of precursor gases, so that changes to physical parameters in a model can have a larger effect on Δ O3chem than Δ O3phys. Despite its smaller magnitude, the physical processing distinguishes the lower tropospheric export cases, since the net photochemical O3 change is −5 ppbv per day in all three cases. Processing is quantified using a Lagrangian photochemical model with a novel method for simulating mixing through an ensemble of trajectories and a background profile that evolves with them. The model is able to simulate the magnitude and variability of the observations (of O3, CO, NOy and some hydrocarbons) and is consistent with the time-average OH following air-masses inferred from hydrocarbon measurements alone (by Arnold et al., 2007). Therefore, it is a useful new method to simulate air mass evolution and variability, and its sensitivity to process parameters.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

Evolution and change in the serviced office sector: a decade later

With particular reference to its role in the corporate real estate supply chain, this paper focuses on how the serviced office sector in the UK has evolved and changed over the last decade. A qualitative research approach involving 21 semi-structured interviews with corporate clients of serviced office operators was used to address a number of issues regarding the perceptions of users of serviced offices. It is concluded that the serviced office sector has become an established sector of the UK’s commercial real estate market providing an essential product for many corporate organisations. The serviced office sector has been relatively nimble and a range of operational models have emerged. It was found that corporate organisations use serviced office space and services in order to align workforce change with portfolio change, to transfer risk, for short-term project space, as temporary overflow space, to pilot a new location, to become familiar with a specific geographical marketplace or simply to gain an initial presence in an area.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

The evolution of the sun’s open magnetic flux: II. full solar cycle simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.