One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

The effects of deep cracks on the rain-induced instability of slopes : A case study

Rainfall can disrupt the balance of natural soil slope. This imbalance will be accelerated by existence of cracks in soil slope, which lead to decreasing shear strength and increasing hydraulic conductivity of the soil slope. Some research works have been conducted on the effects of surface-cracks on slope stability. However, the influence of deep-cracks is yet to be investigated. Limited availability of deep crack data due to the lack of effective sub-soil investigation methods could be one of the obstacles. To emphasize the effects of deep cracks in soil slope on its rain-induced instability, a natural soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 31st October 2010 due to heavy rainfall was analyzed for stability with and without deep cracks in the slope. The slope stability analysis was conducted using SLOPE/W coupling with the results of transient seepage analysis (SEEP/W) that simulate the pore-water pressure development in the slope during the rainfall. The results of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey, bore-hole tests and geometrical survey conducted on the slope before its failure were used to identify the soil layers’ stratification including deep cracks, the properties of different soil layers, and geometrical parameters of the slope for the analysis. The results showed that it is vital to consider the existence of deep crack in soil slopes in analysing their instability induced by rainfalls.

Effects of slope inclination on the rain-induced instability of embankment slopes

Rainfall has been identified as one of the main causes for embankment failures in areas where high annual rainfall is experienced. The inclination of the embankment slope is important for its stability during rainfall. In this study, instrumented model embankments were subjected to artificial rainfalls to investigate the effects of the slope inclination on their stability. The results of the study suggested that when the slope inclination is greater than the friction angle of the soil, the failure is initiated by the loss of soil suction and when it is smaller than the friction angle of the soil, the failure is initiated by the positive pore water pressure developed at the toe of the slope. Further, slopes become more susceptible to sudden collapse during rainfall as the slope angle increases.

Architectural modelling of maize under water stress

Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.

GRDC Improving crop and farm water use efficiency in Australia

Project Objectives: 1. Improving yield and water use efficiency of the wheat crop, the backbone of the Australia grains industry, by better matching management, variety, soil and climate. The aim is thus increasing kg grain/ha per mm evapotranspiration and kg grain/ha per mm rain. 2. Improving land and water productivity and profit by better arrangement of the components of the cropping system. This involves better allocation of farm resources (land, water, machinery, labour) and identifying strategies that account for trade-offs between profit and risk. The aim is thus improving $/ha per year and mm rain in a risk framework.

Rain Damage to Strawberries Grown in Southeast Queensland: Evaluation and Genetic Control.

In Queensland, Australia, strawberries (Fragaria xananassa Duchesne) are grown in open fields and rainfall events can damage fruit. Cultivars that are resistant to rain damage may reduce losses and lower risk for the growers. However, little is known about the genetic control of resistance and in a subtropical climate, unpredictable rainfall events hamper evaluation. Rain damage was evaluated on seedling and clonal trials of one breeding population comprising 645 seedling genotypes and 94 clones and on a second clonal population comprising 46 clones from an earlier crossing to make preliminary estimates of heritability. The incidence of field damage from rainfall and damage after laboratory soaking was evaluated to determine if this soaking method could be used to evaluate resistance to rain damage. Narrow-sense heritability of resistance to rain damage calculated for seedlings was low (0.21 +/- 0.15) and not significantly different from zero; however, broad-sense heritability estimates were moderate in both seedlings (0.49 +/- 0.16) and clones (0.45 +/- 0.08) from the first population and similar in clones (0.56 +/- 0.21) from the second population. Immersion of fruit in deionized water produced symptoms consistent with rain damage in the field. Lengthening the duration of soaking of 'Festival' fruit in deionized water exponentially increased the proportion of damage to fruit ranging in ripeness from immature to ripe during the first 6-h period of soaking. When eight genotypes were evaluated, the proportion of sound fruit after soaking in deionized water in the laboratory for up to 5 h was linearly related (r(2) = 0.90) to the proportion of sound fruit in the field after 89 mm of rain. The proportion of sound fruit of the breeding genotype '2008-208' and 'Festival' under soaking (0.67, 0.60) and field (0.52, 0.43) evaluations, respectively, is about the same and these genotypes may be useful sources of resistance to rain damage.

Water-use efficiency and productivity trends in Australian irrigated cotton: a review

The aim of this review is to report changes in irrigated cotton water use from research projects and on-farm practice-change programs in Australia, in relation to both plant-based and irrigation engineering disciplines. At least 80% of the Australian cotton-growing area is irrigated using gravity surface-irrigation systems. This review found that, over 23 years, cotton crops utilise 6-7ML/ha of irrigation water, depending on the amount of seasonal rain received. The seasonal evapotranspiration of surface-irrigated crops averaged 729mm over this period. Over the past decade, water-use productivity by Australian cotton growers has improved by 40%. This has been achieved by both yield increases and more efficient water-management systems. The whole-farm irrigation efficiency index improved from 57% to 70%, and the crop water use index is >3kg/mm.ha, high by international standards. Yield increases over the last decade can be attributed to plant-breeding advances, the adoption of genetically modified varieties, and improved crop management. Also, there has been increased use of irrigation scheduling tools and furrow-irrigation system optimisation evaluations. This has reduced in-field deep-drainage losses. The largest loss component of the farm water balance on cotton farms is evaporation from on-farm water storages. Some farmers are changing to alternative systems such as centre pivots and lateral-move machines, and increasing numbers of these alternatives are expected. These systems can achieve considerable labour and water savings, but have significantly higher energy costs associated with water pumping and machine operation. The optimisation of interactions between water, soils, labour, carbon emissions and energy efficiency requires more research and on-farm evaluations. Standardisation of water-use efficiency measures and improved water measurement techniques for surface irrigation are important research outcomes to enable valid irrigation benchmarks to be established and compared. Water-use performance is highly variable between cotton farmers and farming fields and across regions. Therefore, site-specific measurement is important. The range in the presented datasets indicates potential for further improvement in water-use efficiency and productivity on Australian cotton farms.

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types : a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat pruduction

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.

Integrating Rapid Phenotyping and Speed Breeding to Improve Stay-Green and Root Adaptation of Wheat in Changing, Water-Limited, Australian Environments

Temperatures have increased and in-crop rainfall decreased over recent decades in many parts of the Australian wheat cropping region. With these trends set to continue or intensify, improving crop adaptation in the face of climate change is particularly urgent in this, already drought-prone, cropping region. Importantly, improved performance under water-limitation must be achieved while retaining yield potential during more favourable seasons. A multi-trait-based approach to improve wheat yield and yield stability in the face of water-limitation and heat has been instigated in northern Australia using novel phenotyping techniques and a nested association mapping (NAM) approach. An innovative laboratory technique allows rapid root trait screening of hundreds of lines. Using soil grown seedlings, the method offers significant advantages over many other lab-based techniques. Another recently developed method allows novel stay-green traits to be quantified objectively for hundreds of genotypes in standard field trial plots. Field trials in multiple locations and seasons allow evaluation of targeted trait values and identification of superior germplasm. Traits, including yield and yield components are measured for hundreds of NAM lines in rain fed environments under various levels of water-limitation. To rapidly generate lines of interest, the University of Queensland “speed breeding” method is being employed, allowing up to 7 plant generations per annum. A NAM population of over 1000 wheat recombinant inbred lines has been progressed to the F5 generation within 18 months. Genotyping the NAM lines with the genome-wide DArTseq molecular marker system provides up to 40,000 markers. They are now being used for association mapping to validate QTL previously identified in bi-parental populations and to identify novel QTL for stay-green and root traits. We believe that combining the latest techniques in physiology, phenotyping, genetics and breeding will increase genetic progress toward improved adaptation to water-limited environments.

Systems Analysis of Tank Irrigation: II. Delayed Start and Water Deficit

Tank irrigation systems in the semiarid regions of India are discussed in this paper. To optimize the grain yield of rice, it is essential to start the agricultural operations in the second week of July so that favorable climatic conditions will prevail during flowering and yield formation stages. Because of low inflow during the initial few weeks of the crop season, often farmers are forced to delay planting until sufficient sowing rain and inflow have occurred or to adopt deficit irrigation during this period. The delayed start affects the grain yield, but will lead to an improved irrigation efficiency. A delayed start of agricultural operations with increased irrigation efficiency leads to the energy resources becoming critical during the peak requirement week, particularly those of female labor and animal power. This necessitates augmenting these resources during weeks of their peak use, either by reorganizing the traditional methods of cultivation or by importing from outside the system.

Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates

In this study, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission based Microwave Imager estimates (2A12) have been used to compare and contrast the characteristics of cloud liquid water and ice over the Indian land region and the ocean surrounding it, during the premonsoon (May) and monsoon (June-September) seasons. Based on the spatial homogeneity of rainfall, we have selected five regions for our study (three over ocean, two over land). Comparison across three ocean regions suggests that the cloud liquid water (CLW) over the orographically influenced Arabian Sea (close to the Indian west coast) behaves differently from the CLW over a trapped ocean (Bay of Bengal) or an open ocean (equatorial Indian Ocean). Specifically, the Arabian Sea region shows higher liquid water for a lower range of rainfall, whereas the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean show higher liquid water for a higher range of rainfall. Apart from geographic differences, we also documented seasonal differences by comparing CLW profiles between monsoon and premonsoon periods, as well as between early and peak phases of the monsoon. We find that the CLW during the lean periods of rainfall (May or June) is higher than during the peak and late monsoon season (July-September) for raining clouds. As active and break phases are important signatures of the monsoon progression, we also analysed the differences in CLW during various phases of the monsoon, namely, active, break, active-to-break and break-to-active transition phases. We find that the cloud liquid water content during the break-to-active transition phase is significantly higher than during the active-to-break transition phase over central India. We speculate that this could be attributed to higher amount of aerosol loading over this region during the break phase. We lend credence to this aerosol-CLW/rain association by comparing the central Indian CLW with that over southeast Asia (where the aerosol loading is significantly smaller) and find that in the latter region, there are no significant differences in CLW during the different phases of the monsoon. While our hypothesis needs to be further investigated with numerical models, the results presented in this study can potentially serve as a good benchmark in evaluating the performance of cloud resolving models over the Indian region.

Influence of Foliar Exposure, Adjuvants, and Rain-free Period on the Efficacy of Glyphosate for Torpedograss Control

The proportion of torpedograss tissue exposed to glyphosate at application rates of 0.28, 0.56, 1.12, 2.24, and 4.48 kg/ha affected control as measured by regrowth. The effect of tissue exposure was more pronounced as application rate decreased. This study suggests that higher rates of glyphosate need to be used during higher water levels, when less torpedograss tissue is exposed to herbicide spray and lower rates may be used during periods of low water levels. Addition of the water conditioning agent Quest (R) (0.25% v/v) to glyphosate spray mixtures diminished the influence of simulated rain events following glyphosate application. Twelve other adjuvants did not influence the effect of simulated rain events.