Quantitative response of the longevity of seed of twelve crops to temperature and moisture in hermetic storage

Seeds of 39 seed lots of a total of twelve different crops were stored hermetically in a wide range of air-dry environments (2-25% moisture content at 0-50 degrees C), viability assessed periodically, and the seed viability equation constants estimated. Within a species, estimates of the constants which quantify absolute longevity (K-E) and the relative effects on longevity of moisture content (C-W) and temperature (C-H and C-Q) did not differ (P >0.05 to P >0.25) among lots. Comparison among the 12 crops provided variant estimates of K-E and C-W (P< 0.01), but common values of C-H and C-Q (0.0322 and 0.000454, respectively, P >0.25). Maize (Zea mays) provided the greatest estimate of K-E (9.993, s.e.= 0.456), followed by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) (9.381, s.e. 0.428), pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoides) (9.336, s.e.= 0.408), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) (8.988, s.e.= 0.387), African rice (Oryza glaberrima) (8.786, s.e.= 0.484), wheat (Triticum aestivum) (8.498, s.e.= 0.431), foxtail millet (Setaria italica) (8.478, s.e.= 0.396), sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) (8.454, s.e.= 0.545), finger millet (Eleusine coracana) (8.288, s.e.= 0.392), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum) (8.138, s.e.= 0.418), rice (Oryza sativa) (8.096, s.e.= 0.416) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) (8.037, s.e.= 0.397). Similarly, estimates of C-W were ranked maize (5.993, s.e.= 0.392), pearl millet (5.540, s.e.= 0.348), sorghum (5.379, s.e.=0.365), potato (5.152, s.e.= 0.347), sugar beet (4.969, s.e.= 0.328), sugar cane (4.964, s.e.= 0.518), foxtail millet (4.829, s.e.= 0.339), wheat (4.836, s.e.= 0.366), African rice (4.727, s.e.= 0.416), kodo millet (4.435, s.e.= 0.360), finger millet (4.345, s.e.= 0.336) and rice (4.246, s.e.= 0.355). The application of these constants to long-term seed storage is discussed.

The effect of surface heterogeneity on cloud absorption estimates

This study presents a systematic and quantitative analysis of the effect of inhomogeneous surface albedo on shortwave cloud absorption estimates. We used 3D radiative transfer modeling over a checkerboard surface albedo to calculate cloud absorption. We have found that accounting for surface heterogeneity enhances cloud absorption. However, the enhancement is not sufficient to explain the reported difference between measured and modeled cloud absorption.

Condition number estimates for combined potential integral operators in acoustics and their boundary element discretisation

We consider the classical coupled, combined-field integral equation formulations for time-harmonic acoustic scattering by a sound soft bounded obstacle. In recent work, we have proved lower and upper bounds on the $L^2$ condition numbers for these formulations, and also on the norms of the classical acoustic single- and double-layer potential operators. These bounds to some extent make explicit the dependence of condition numbers on the wave number $k$, the geometry of the scatterer, and the coupling parameter. For example, with the usual choice of coupling parameter they show that, while the condition number grows like $k^{1/3}$ as $k\to\infty$, when the scatterer is a circle or sphere, it can grow as fast as $k^{7/5}$ for a class of `trapping' obstacles. In this paper we prove further bounds, sharpening and extending our previous results. In particular we show that there exist trapping obstacles for which the condition numbers grow as fast as $\exp(\gamma k)$, for some $\gamma>0$, as $k\to\infty$ through some sequence. This result depends on exponential localisation bounds on Laplace eigenfunctions in an ellipse that we prove in the appendix. We also clarify the correct choice of coupling parameter in 2D for low $k$. In the second part of the paper we focus on the boundary element discretisation of these operators. We discuss the extent to which the bounds on the continuous operators are also satisfied by their discrete counterparts and, via numerical experiments, we provide supporting evidence for some of the theoretical results, both quantitative and asymptotic, indicating further which of the upper and lower bounds may be sharper.

Quantitative precipitation estimation over ocean using Bayesian approach from microwave observations during the typhoon season

We have developed a new Bayesian approach to retrieve oceanic rain rate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), with an emphasis on typhoon cases in the West Pacific. Retrieved rain rates are validated with measurements of rain gauges located on Japanese islands. To demonstrate improvement, retrievals are also compared with those from the TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR), the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), and a multi-channel linear regression statistical method (MLRS). We have found that qualitatively, all methods retrieved similar horizontal distributions in terms of locations of eyes and rain bands of typhoons. Quantitatively, our new Bayesian retrievals have the best linearity and the smallest root mean square (RMS) error against rain gauge data for 16 typhoon overpasses in 2004. The correlation coefficient and RMS of our retrievals are 0.95 and ~2 mm hr-1, respectively. In particular, at heavy rain rates, our Bayesian retrievals outperform those retrieved from GPROF and MLRS. Overall, the new Bayesian approach accurately retrieves surface rain rate for typhoon cases. Accurate rain rate estimates from this method can be assimilated in models to improve forecast and prevent potential damages in Taiwan during typhoon seasons.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.

Wild bird feeding in a large UK urban area: characteristics and estimates of energy input and individuals supported

Wild bird feeding is popular in domestic gardens across the world. Nevertheless, there is surprisingly little empirical information on certain aspects of the activity and no year-round quantitative records of the amounts and nature of the different foods provided in individual gardens. We sought to characterise garden bird feeding in a large UK urban area in two ways. First, we conducted face-to-face questionnaires with a representative cross-section of residents. Just over half fed birds, the majority doing so year round and at least weekly. Second, a two-year study recorded all foodstuffs put out by households on every provisioning occasion. A median of 628 kcal/garden/day was given. Provisioning level was not significantly influenced by weather or season. Comparisons between the data sets revealed significantly less frequent feeding amongst these ‘keen’ feeders than the face-to-face questionnaire respondents, suggesting that one-off questionnaires may overestimate provisioning frequency. Assuming 100% uptake, the median provisioning level equates to sufficient supplementary resources across the UK to support 196 million individuals of a hypothetical average garden-feeding bird species (based on 10 common UK garden-feeding birds’ energy requirements). Taking the lowest provisioning level recorded (101 kcal/day) as a conservative measure, 31 million of these average individuals could theoretically be supported.

Incorporating toxicokinetics into an individual-based model for more realistic pesticide exposure estimates: A case study of the wood mouse

The potential risk of agricultural pesticides to mammals typically depends on internal concentrations within individuals, and these are determined by the amount ingested and by absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Pesticide residues ingested depend, amongst other things, on individual spatial choices which determine how much and when feeding sites and areas of pesticide application overlap, and can be calculated using individual-based models (IBMs). Internal concentrations can be calculated using toxicokinetic (TK) models, which are quantitative representations of ADME processes. Here we provide a population model for the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) in which TK submodels were incorporated into an IBM representation of individuals making choices about where to feed. This allows us to estimate the contribution of individual spatial choice and TK processes to risk. We compared the risk predicted by four IBMs: (i) “AllExposed-NonTK”: assuming no spatial choice so all mice have 100% exposure, no TK, (ii) “AllExposed-TK”: identical to (i) except that the TK processes are included where individuals vary because they have different temporal patterns of ingestion in the IBM, (iii) “Spatial-NonTK”: individual spatial choice, no TK, and (iv) “Spatial-TK”: individual spatial choice and with TK. The TK parameters for hypothetical pesticides used in this study were selected such that a conventional risk assessment would fail. Exposures were standardised using risk quotients (RQ; exposure divided by LD50 or LC50). We found that for the exposed sub-population including either spatial choice or TK reduced the RQ by 37–85%, and for the total population the reduction was 37–94%. However spatial choice and TK together had little further effect in reducing RQ. The reasons for this are that when the proportion of time spent in treated crop (PT) approaches 1, TK processes dominate and spatial choice has very little effect, and conversely if PT is small spatial choice dominates and TK makes little contribution to exposure reduction. The latter situation means that a short time spent in the pesticide-treated field mimics exposure from a small gavage dose, but TK only makes a substantial difference when the dose was consumed over a longer period. We concluded that a combined TK-IBM is most likely to bring added value to the risk assessment process when the temporal pattern of feeding, time spent in exposed area and TK parameters are at an intermediate level; for instance wood mice in foliar spray scenarios spending more time in crop fields because of better plant cover.

Quantitative variation in the tropical maize population, ESALQ-PB1

A boa produtividade e os valores intermediários para altura da planta e altura da espiga caracterizam a população de milho ESALQ-PB1 como agronomicamente promissora. São relatadas estimativas de parâmetros para 13 caracteres: altura da planta (PH), altura da espiga (EH), posição relativa da espiga (EP), comprimento do pendão (TL), peso do pendão (TW), número de ramificações do pendão (TB), peso de espigas (EW), peso de grãos (GW), comprimento da espiga (EL), diâmetro da espiga (ED), número de fileiras de grãos (RN), número de grãos por fileira (KR) e prolificidade (PR). Os resultados se referem a um único ambiente (um local e um ano). Foi detectada variação genética para todos os caracteres, e são apresentadas estimativas da variância genética aditiva. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade (indivíduos) variaram de 0,14 a 0,72 e foram considerados altos para PH, EH e TB; intermediários para EP, TL, TW, EL e ED, e baixos para EW, GW, KR e PR. O coeficiente de herdabilidade para médias de progênies mostrou aproximadamente a mesma tendência, variando de 0,40 a 0,75. O maior ganho esperado por seleção foi para TB (27% por ciclo) sob seleção massal e para TW (16,4%) por seleção entre progênies; o menor ganho esperado foi para ED, tanto por seleção massal (1,9%) como por seleção entre progênies (2,9%). Coeficientes de correlação aditiva (rA) 0.5

Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Food categories reconstruction and feeding consumption estimates for the Sciaenid Macrodon ancylodon (Bloch & Schneider), and the congeneric fishes Stellifer rastrifer (Jordan) and Stellifer naso (Jordan) (Pisces, Perciformes) in the Caeté Estuary, Northern Coast of Brazil

Um método quantitativo para se estimar o consumo alimentar e o aporte energético das diferentes categorias alimentares é apresentado através da reconstrução das presas ingeridas com base em estruturas corporais não digeríveis. Para tal, o presente estudo estabelece, através do exame dos conteúdos estomacais de 1.086 exemplares dissecados de Macrodon ancylodon (Bloch & Schneider, 1801), Stellifer rastrifer (Jordan, 1889) e Stellifer naso (Jordan, 1889), as equações das relações funcionais entre o peso das presas e estruturas corporais. Com as categorias reconstruídas foi possível quantificar o alimento ingerido pelos espécimes. Os resultados indicaram que existe uma marcada diferença, tanto na composição das categorias alimentares, bem como no aporte energético acompanhando o desenvolvimento ontogênico do predador.

Quantitative and qualitative dynamics of exotic and native blowflies ( Diptera: Calliphoridae) with migrations among municipalities

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Improving IRT parameter estimates with small sample sizes: Evaluating the efficacy of a new data augmentation technique

The 3PL model is a flexible and widely used tool in assessment. However, it suffers from limitations due to its need for large sample sizes. This study introduces and evaluates the efficacy of a new sample size augmentation technique called Duplicate, Erase, and Replace (DupER) Augmentation through a simulation study. Data are augmented using several variations of DupER Augmentation (based on different imputation methodologies, deletion rates, and duplication rates), analyzed in BILOG-MG 3, and results are compared to those obtained from analyzing the raw data. Additional manipulated variables include test length and sample size. Estimates are compared using seven different evaluative criteria. Results are mixed and inconclusive. DupER augmented data tend to result in larger root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and lower correlations between estimates and parameters for both item and ability parameters. However, some DupER variations produce estimates that are much less biased than those obtained from the raw data alone. For one DupER variation, it was found that DupER produced better results for low-ability simulees and worse results for those with high abilities. Findings, limitations, and recommendations for future studies are discussed. Specific recommendations for future studies include the application of Duper Augmentation (1) to empirical data, (2) with additional IRT models, and (3) the analysis of the efficacy of the procedure for different item and ability parameter distributions.

Lesion detection and classification in breast cancer: evaluation of approaches based on morphological features, tracer kinetic modelling and semi-quantitative parameters in MR functional imaging (DCE-MRI)

The diagnosis, grading and classification of tumours has benefited considerably from the development of DCE-MRI which is now essential to the adequate clinical management of many tumour types due to its capability in detecting active angiogenesis. Several strategies have been proposed for DCE-MRI evaluation. Visual inspection of contrast agent concentration curves vs time is a very simple yet operator dependent procedure, therefore more objective approaches have been developed in order to facilitate comparison between studies. In so called model free approaches, descriptive or heuristic information extracted from time series raw data have been used for tissue classification. The main issue concerning these schemes is that they have not a direct interpretation in terms of physiological properties of the tissues. On the other hand, model based investigations typically involve compartmental tracer kinetic modelling and pixel-by-pixel estimation of kinetic parameters via non-linear regression applied on region of interests opportunely selected by the physician. This approach has the advantage to provide parameters directly related to the pathophysiological properties of the tissue such as vessel permeability, local regional blood flow, extraction fraction, concentration gradient between plasma and extravascular-extracellular space. Anyway, nonlinear modelling is computational demanding and the accuracy of the estimates can be affected by the signal-to-noise ratio and by the initial solutions. The principal aim of this thesis is investigate the use of semi-quantitative and quantitative parameters for segmentation and classification of breast lesion. The objectives can be subdivided as follow: describe the principal techniques to evaluate time intensity curve in DCE-MRI with focus on kinetic model proposed in literature; to evaluate the influence in parametrization choice for a classic bi-compartmental kinetic models; to evaluate the performance of a method for simultaneous tracer kinetic modelling and pixel classification; to evaluate performance of machine learning techniques training for segmentation and classification of breast lesion.

Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

Real-time quantitative PCR to determine chlamydial load in men and women in a community setting

We used a PCR method to quantify the loads of Chlamydia trachomatis organisms in self-collected urine and vulvovaginal swab (VVS) samples from 93 women and 30 men participating in the Chlamydia Screening Studies Project, a community-based study of individuals not seeking health care. For women, self-collected VVS had a higher mean chlamydial load (10,405 organisms/ml; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 5,167 to 21,163 organisms/ml) than did first-void urines (FVU) (503 organisms/ml; 95% CI, 250 to 1,022 organisms/ml; P < 0.001). Chlamydial loads in female and male self-collected FVU specimens were similar (P = 0.634). The mean chlamydial load in FVU specimens decreased with increasing age in females and males. There was no strong statistical evidence of differences in chlamydial load in repeat male and female FVU specimens taken when patients attended for treatment a median of 23.5 (range, 14 to 62) and 28 (range, 13 to 132) days later, respectively, or in VVS taken a median of 35 (range, 14 to 217) days later. In this study, chlamydial load values for infected persons in the community who were not seeking treatment were lower than those published in other studies involving symptomatic patients attending clinical settings. This might have implications for estimates of the infectiousness of chlamydia. The results of this study provide a scientific rationale for preferring VVS to FVU specimens from women.