Population ageing, longevity and migration: an overlapping generations approach

The silent demographic revolution characterizing the main industrialized countries is an unavoidable factor which has major economic, social, cultural and psychological implications. This thesis studies the main consequences of population ageing and the connections with the phenomenon of migration, The theoretical analysis is developed using Overlapping Generations Models (OLG). The thesis is divided in the following four chapters: 1) “A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions”, focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and proposes the institution of a non selfsufficiency fund for the elderly. 2) "Population Ageing, Longevity and Health", analyzes the effects of health investment on intertemporal individual behaviour and capital accumulation. 3) "Population Ageing and the Nursing Flow", studies the consequences of migration in the nursing sector. 4) "Quality of Multiculturalism and Minorities' Assimilation", focuses on the problem of assimilation and integration of minorities.

A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation.

White matter matters: a multimodal approach to investigate white matter microstructure and metabolism

White matter connects different brain areas and applies electrical insulation to the neuron’s axons with myelin sheaths in order to enable quick signal transmission. Due to its modulatory properties in signal conduction, white matter plays an essential role in learning, cognition and psychiatric disorders (Fields, 2008a). In respect thereof, the non-invasive investigation of white matter anatomy and function in vivo provides the unique opportunity to explore the most complex organ of our body. Thus, the present thesis aimed to apply a multimodal neuroimaging approach to investigate different white matter properties in psychiatric and healthy populations. On the one hand, white matter microstructural properties were investigated in a psychiatric population; on the other hand, white matter metabolic properties were assessed in healthy adults providing basic information about the brain’s wiring entity. As a result, three research papers are presented here. The first paper assessed the microstructural properties of white matter in relation to a frequent epidemiologic finding in schizophrenia. As a result, reduced white matter integrity was observed in patients born in summer and autumn compared to patients born in winter and spring. Despite the large genetic basis of schizophrenia, accumulating evidence indicates that environmental exposures may be implicated in the development of schizophrenia (A. S. Brown, 2011). Notably, epidemiologic studies have shown a 5–8% excess of births during winter and spring for patients with schizophrenia on the Northern Hemisphere at higher latitudes (Torrey, Miller, Rawlings, & Yolken, 1997). Although the underlying mechanisms are unclear, the seasonal birth effect may indicate fluctuating environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. Thus, exposure to harmful factors during foetal development may result in the activation of pathologic neural circuits during adolescence or young adulthood, increasing the risk of schizophrenia (Fatemi & Folsom, 2009). While white matter development starts during the foetal period and continues until adulthood, its major development is accomplished by the age of two years (Brody, Kinney, Kloman, & Gilles, 1987; Huang et al., 2009). This indicates a vulnerability period of white matter that may coincide with the fluctuating environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. Since microstructural alterations of white matter in schizophrenia are frequently observed, the current study provided evidence for the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. In the second research paper, the perfusion of white matter showed a positive correlation between white matter microstructure and its perfusion with blood across healthy adults. This finding was in line with clinical studies indicating a tight coupling between cerebral perfusion and WM health across subjects (Amann et al., 2012; Chen, Rosas, & Salat, 2013; Kitagawa et al., 2009). Although relatively little is known about the metabolic properties of white matter, different microstructural properties, such as axon diameter and myelination, might be coupled with the metabolic demand of white matter. Furthermore, the ability to detect perfusion signal in white matter was in accordance with a recent study showing that technical improvements, such as pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling, enabled the reliable detection of white matter perfusion signal (van Osch et al., 2009). The third paper involved a collaboration within the same department to assess the interrelation between functional connectivity networks and their underlying structural connectivity.

The coordinated approach to child health in underserved population (CATCH UP) curriculum: A quantitative evaluation of an innovative preschool obesity prevention program

Obesity has been on the rise in the United States over the last 30 years for all populations, including preschoolers. The purpose of the project was to develop an observation tool to measure physical activity levels in preschool children and use the tool in a pilot test of the CATCH UP curriculum at two Head Start Centers in Houston. Pretest and posttest interobserver agreements were all above 0.60 for physical activity level and physical activity type. Preschoolers spent the majority of their time in light physical activity (75.33% pretest, 87.77% posttest), and spent little time in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (24.67% pretest, 12.23% posttest). Percent time spent in MVPA decreased significantly pretest to posttest from (F=5.738, p=0.043). While the pilot testing of the CATCH UP curriculum did not show an increase in MVPA, the SOFIT-P tool did show promising results as being a new method for collecting physical activity level data for preschoolers. Once the new tool has undergone more reliability and validity testing, it could allow for a more convenient method of collecting physical activity levels for preschoolers. ^

Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The population pharmacokinetics of citalopram after deliberate self-poisoning: A Bayesian approach

Defining the pharmacokinetics of drugs in overdose is complicated. Deliberate self-poisoning is generally impulsive and associated with poor accuracy in dose history. In addition, early blood samples are rarely collected to characterize the whole plasma-concentration time profile and the effect of decontamination on the pharmacokinetics is uncertain. The aim of this study was to explore a fully Bayesian methodology for population pharmacokinetic analysis of data that arose from deliberate self-poisoning with citalopram. Prior information on the pharmacokinetic parameters was elicited from 14 published studies on citalopram when taken in therapeutic doses. The data set included concentration-time data from 53 patients studied after 63 citalopram overdose events (dose range: 20-1700 mg). Activated charcoal was administered between 0.5 and 4 h after 17 overdose events. The clinical investigator graded the veracity of the patients' dosing history on a 5-point ordinal scale. Inclusion of informative priors stabilised the pharmacokinetic model and the population mean values could be estimated well. There were no indications of non-linear clearance after excessive doses. The final model included an estimated uncertainty of the dose amount which in a simulation study was shown to not affect the model's ability to characterise the effects of activated charcoal. The effect of activated charcoal on clearance and bioavailability was pronounced and resulted in a 72% increase and 22% decrease, respectively. These findings suggest charcoal administration is potentially beneficial after citalopram overdose. The methodology explored seems promising for exploring the dose-exposure relationship in the toxicological settings.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.