Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

A Study of feature extraction algorithms for optical flow tracking

Sparse optical flow algorithms, such as the Lucas-Kanade approach, provide more robustness to noise than dense optical flow algorithms and are the preferred approach in many scenarios. Sparse optical flow algorithms estimate the displacement for a selected number of pixels in the image. These pixels can be chosen randomly. However, pixels in regions with more variance between the neighbours will produce more reliable displacement estimates. The selected pixel locations should therefore be chosen wisely. In this study, the suitability of Harris corners, Shi-Tomasi's “Good features to track", SIFT and SURF interest point extractors, Canny edges, and random pixel selection for the purpose of frame-by-frame tracking using a pyramidical Lucas-Kanade algorithm is investigated. The evaluation considers the important factors of processing time, feature count, and feature trackability in indoor and outdoor scenarios using ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles, and for the purpose of visual odometry estimation.

Document clustering algorithms, representations and evaluation for information retrieval

This thesis presents new methods for classification and thematic grouping of billions of web pages, at scales previously not achievable. This process is also known as document clustering, where similar documents are automatically associated with clusters that represent various distinct topic. These automatically discovered topics are in turn used to improve search engine performance by only searching the topics that are deemed relevant to particular user queries.

Selection procedures for module discovery : exploring evolutionary algorithms for cognitive science

Evolutionary algorithms are playing an increasingly important role as search methods in cognitive science domains. In this study, methodological issues in the use of evolutionary algorithms were investigated via simulations in which procedures were systematically varied to modify the selection pressures on populations of evolving agents. Traditional roulette wheel, tournament, and variations of these selection algorithms were compared on the “needle-in-a-haystack” problem developed by Hinton and Nowlan in their 1987 study of the Baldwin effect. The task is an important one for cognitive science, as it demonstrates the power of learning as a local search technique in smoothing a fitness landscape that lacks gradient information. One aspect that has continued to foster interest in the problem is the observation of residual learning ability in simulated populations even after long periods of time. Effective evolutionary algorithms balance their search effort between broad exploration of the search space and in-depth exploitation of promising solutions already found. Issues discussed include the differential effects of rank and proportional selection, the tradeoff between migration of populations towards good solutions and maintenance of diversity, and the development of measures that illustrate how each selection algorithm affects the search process over generations. We show that both roulette wheel and tournament algorithms can be modified to appropriately balance search between exploration and exploitation, and effectively eliminate residual learning in this problem.

Numerical investigation of upstream fuel injection through porous media for scramjet engines via surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms

A multi-objective design optimization study has been conducted for upstream fuel injection through porous media applied to the first ramp of a two-dimensional scramjet intake. The optimization has been performed by coupling evolutionary algorithms assisted by surrogate modeling and computational fluid dynamics with respect to three design criteria, that is, the maximization of the absolute mixing quantity, total pressure saving, and fuel penetration. A distinct Pareto optimal front has been obtained, highlighting the counteracting behavior of the total pressure against the mixing efficiency and fuel penetration. The injector location and size have been identified as the key design parameters as a result of a sensitivity analysis, with negligible influence of the porous properties in the configurations and conditions considered in the present study. Flowfield visualization has revealed the underlying physics associated with the effects of these dominant parameters on the shock structure and intensity.

A comparison of classification algorithms within the Classifynder pollen imaging system

We describe an investigation into how Massey University's Pollen Classifynder can accelerate the understanding of pollen and its role in nature. The Classifynder is an imaging microscopy system that can locate, image and classify slide based pollen samples. Given the laboriousness of purely manual image acquisition and identification it is vital to exploit assistive technologies like the Classifynder to enable acquisition and analysis of pollen samples. It is also vital that we understand the strengths and limitations of automated systems so that they can be used (and improved) to compliment the strengths and weaknesses of human analysts to the greatest extent possible. This article reviews some of our experiences with the Classifynder system and our exploration of alternative classifier models to enhance both accuracy and interpretability. Our experiments in the pollen analysis problem domain have been based on samples from the Australian National University's pollen reference collection (2890 grains, 15 species) and images bundled with the Classifynder system (400 grains, 4 species). These samples have been represented using the Classifynder image feature set. In addition to the Classifynder's native neural network classifier, we have evaluated linear discriminant, support vector machine, decision tree and random forest classifiers on these data with encouraging results. Our hope is that our findings will help enhance the performance of future releases of the Classifynder and other systems for accelerating the acquisition and analysis of pollen samples. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Coverage algorithms for an under-actuated car-like vehicle in an uncertain environment

A coverage algorithm is an algorithm that deploys a strategy as to how to cover all points in terms of a given area using some set of sensors. In the past decades a lot of research has gone into development of coverage algorithms. Initially, the focus was coverage of structured and semi-structured indoor areas, but with time and development of better sensors and introduction of GPS, the focus has turned to outdoor coverage. Due to the unstructured nature of an outdoor environment, covering an outdoor area with all its obstacles and simultaneously performing reliable localization is a difficult task. In this paper, two path planning algorithms suitable for solving outdoor coverage tasks are introduced. The algorithms take into account the kinematic constraints of an under-actuated car-like vehicle, minimize trajectory curvatures, and dynamically avoid detected obstacles in the vicinity, all in real-time. We demonstrate the performance of the coverage algorithm in the field by achieving 95% coverage using an autonomous tractor mower without the aid of any absolute localization system or constraints on the physical boundaries of the area.

Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms

The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers' objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives - a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Numerical algorithms for time-fractional subdiffusion equation with second-order accuracy

This article aims to fill in the gap of the second-order accurate schemes for the time-fractional subdiffusion equation with unconditional stability. Two fully discrete schemes are first proposed for the time-fractional subdiffusion equation with space discretized by finite element and time discretized by the fractional linear multistep methods. These two methods are unconditionally stable with maximum global convergence order of $O(\tau+h^{r+1})$ in the $L^2$ norm, where $\tau$ and $h$ are the step sizes in time and space, respectively, and $r$ is the degree of the piecewise polynomial space. The average convergence rates for the two methods in time are also investigated, which shows that the average convergence rates of the two methods are $O(\tau^{1.5}+h^{r+1})$. Furthermore, two improved algorithms are constrcted, they are also unconditionally stable and convergent of order $O(\tau^2+h^{r+1})$. Numerical examples are provided to verify the theoretical analysis. The comparisons between the present algorithms and the existing ones are included, which show that our numerical algorithms exhibit better performances than the known ones.

Efficiency of parallelisation of genetic algorithms in the data analysis context

Most real-life data analysis problems are difficult to solve using exact methods, due to the size of the datasets and the nature of the underlying mechanisms of the system under investigation. As datasets grow even larger, finding the balance between the quality of the approximation and the computing time of the heuristic becomes non-trivial. One solution is to consider parallel methods, and to use the increased computational power to perform a deeper exploration of the solution space in a similar time. It is, however, difficult to estimate a priori whether parallelisation will provide the expected improvement. In this paper we consider a well-known method, genetic algorithms, and evaluate on two distinct problem types the behaviour of the classic and parallel implementations.

Optimisation algorithms for microarray biclustering

In providing simultaneous information on expression profiles for thousands of genes, microarray technologies have, in recent years, been largely used to investigate mechanisms of gene expression. Clustering and classification of such data can, indeed, highlight patterns and provide insight on biological processes. A common approach is to consider genes and samples of microarray datasets as nodes in a bipartite graphs, where edges are weighted e.g. based on the expression levels. In this paper, using a previously-evaluated weighting scheme, we focus on search algorithms and evaluate, in the context of biclustering, several variations of Genetic Algorithms. We also introduce a new heuristic “Propagate”, which consists in recursively evaluating neighbour solutions with one more or one less active conditions. The results obtained on three well-known datasets show that, for a given weighting scheme,optimal or near-optimal solutions can be identified.

A framework for identification of similarities between multiple algorithms

This thesis in software engineering presents a novel automated framework to identify similar operations utilized by multiple algorithms for solving related computing problems. It provides a new effective solution to perform multi-application based algorithm analysis, employing fundamentally light-weight static analysis techniques compared to the state-of-art approaches. Significant performance improvements are achieved across the objective algorithms through enhancing the efficiency of the identified similar operations, targeting discrete application domains.

GPU accelerated algorithms for computing matrix function vector products with applications to exponential integrators and fractional diffusion

The efficient computation of matrix function vector products has become an important area of research in recent times, driven in particular by two important applications: the numerical solution of fractional partial differential equations and the integration of large systems of ordinary differential equations. In this work we consider a problem that combines these two applications, in the form of a numerical solution algorithm for fractional reaction diffusion equations that after spatial discretisation, is advanced in time using the exponential Euler method. We focus on the efficient implementation of the algorithm on Graphics Processing Units (GPU), as we wish to make use of the increased computational power available with this hardware. We compute the matrix function vector products using the contour integration method in [N. Hale, N. Higham, and L. Trefethen. Computing Aα, log(A), and related matrix functions by contour integrals. SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 46(5):2505–2523, 2008]. Multiple levels of preconditioning are applied to reduce the GPU memory footprint and to further accelerate convergence. We also derive an error bound for the convergence of the contour integral method that allows us to pre-determine the appropriate number of quadrature points. Results are presented that demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for large two-dimensional problems, showing a speedup of more than an order of magnitude compared to a CPU-only implementation.

A survey: Particle Swarm Optimization based algorithms to solve premature convergence problem

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a biologically inspired computational search and optimization method based on the social behaviors of birds flocking or fish schooling. Although, PSO is represented in solving many well-known numerical test problems, but it suffers from the premature convergence. A number of basic variations have been developed due to solve the premature convergence problem and improve quality of solution founded by the PSO. This study presents a comprehensive survey of the various PSO-based algorithms. As part of this survey, the authors have included a classification of the approaches and they have identify the main features of each proposal. In the last part of the study, some of the topics within this field that are considered as promising areas of future research are listed.