Do Foreign Currency Deposits Promote or Deter Financial Development in Low-Income Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Foreign currency deposits (FCD) are prevalent in many low-income developing countries, but their impact on bank lending has rarely been examined. An examination of cross-country data indicates that a higher proportion of FCD in total deposits is associated with growth in private credit only in inflationary circumstances (over 24 percent of the annual inflation rate). FCD can lead to a decline in private credit below this threshold level of inflation. Given that FCD exhibit persistence, deregulating them in low-income countries may do more harm than good on financial development in the long term, notably after successful containment of inflation.

Removing exogenous information using pedigree data

Management of certain populations requires the preservation of its pure genetic background. When, for different reasons, undesired alleles are introduced, the original genetic conformation must be recovered. The present study tested, through computer simulations, the power of recovery (the ability for removing the foreign information) from genealogical data. Simulated scenarios comprised different numbers of exogenous individuals taking partofthe founder population anddifferent numbers of unmanaged generations before the removal program started. Strategies were based on variables arising from classical pedigree analyses such as founders? contribution and partial coancestry. The ef?ciency of the different strategies was measured as the proportion of native genetic information remaining in the population. Consequences on the inbreeding and coancestry levels of the population were also evaluated. Minimisation of the exogenous founders? contributions was the most powerful method, removing the largest amount of genetic information in just one generation.However, as a side effect, it led to the highest values of inbreeding. Scenarios with a large amount of initial exogenous alleles (i.e. high percentage of non native founders), or many generations of mixing became very dif?cult to recover, pointing out the importance of being careful about introgression events in population

Simplifying data acquisition in plant canopies- Measurements of leaf angles with a cell phone

1. Canopies are complex multilayered structures comprising individual plant crowns exposing a multifaceted surface area to sunlight. Foliage arrangement and properties are the main mediators of canopy functions. The leaves act as light traps whose exposure to sunlight varies with time of the day, date and latitude in a trade-off between photosynthetic light harvesting and excessive or photoinhibitory light avoidance. To date, ecological research based upon leaf sampling has been limited by the available echnology, with which data acquisition becomes labour intensive and time-consuming, given the verwhelming number of leaves involved. 2. In the present study, our goal involved developing a tool capable of easuring a sufficient number of leaves to enable analysis of leaf populations, tree crowns and canopies.We specifically tested whether a cell phone working as a 3Dpointer could yield reliable, repeatable and valid leaf anglemeasurements with a simple gesture. We evaluated the accuracy of this method under controlled conditions, using a 3D digitizer, and we compared performance in the field with the methods commonly used. We presented an equation to estimate the potential proportion of the leaf exposed to direct sunlight (SAL) at any given time and compared the results with those obtained bymeans of a graphicalmethod. 3. We found a strong and highly significant correlation between the graphical methods and the equation presented. The calibration process showed a strong correlation between the results derived from the two methods with amean relative difference below 10%. Themean relative difference in calculation of instantaneous exposure was below 5%. Our device performed equally well in diverse locations, in which we characterized over 700 leaves in a single day. 4. The newmethod, involving the use of a cell phone, ismuchmore effective than the traditionalmethods or digitizers when the goal is to scale up from leaf position to performance of leaf populations, tree crowns or canopies. Our methodology constitutes an affordable and valuable tool within which to frame a wide range of ecological hypotheses and to support canopy modelling approaches.

Neighborhood mobility: A Long-Gone Pardigm? Approaching proximity and land use mix using data from home based surveys.

El WCTR es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte y aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. Policies trying to increase walking within urban mobility modal split usually highlight the importance of the functional patterns and the environmental quality of the urban space as major drivers of citizens modal choices. Functional characteristics would be mainly associated to an appropriate mix of land uses within neighbourhoods, whereas environmental quality would be associated to the characteristics of urban spaces. The purpose of this research is threefold: first, to identify relevant proxy indicators, which could characterize pedestrian-friendly land use mix and environmental quality. Second, to assess, for both traits, existing disparities among neighbourhoods in a major metropolitan area. And finally, to explore the association between both indicators and children mobility patterns: according to their built environment, which neighbourhoods have a greater proportion of children and, how is their mobility? Using data from the 2004 household mobility survey in the 128 neighbourhoods of the municipality of Madrid, this paper concludes that potentially favourable conditions at the neighbourhood level seem to have only a modest influence in,mobility patterns , in terms of both, selection of closer destinations and a higher share of walking within modal split. The citys policy choices, with intensive investment in road and public transport infrastructure may explain why short-distance mobility is not as important as it could have been expected in those neighbourhoods with more pedestrian-friendly conditions. The metropolitan transport system is providing mobility conditions, which make far-away destinations attractive to most citizens.

Neighbourhood mobility: a longgone Paradigm? Approaching "proximity" and "land use mix" using data from home-based surveys

Policies trying to increase walking within urban mobility modal split usually highlight the importance of the functional patterns and the environmental quality of the urban space as major drivers of citizens modal choices. Functional characteristics would be mainly associated to an appropriate mix of land uses within neighbourhoods, whereas environmental quality would be associated to the characteristics of urban spaces. The purpose of this research is threefold: first, to identify relevant proxy indicators, which could characterize pedestrian-friendly land use mix and environmental quality. Second, to assess, for both traits, existing disparities among neighbourhoods in a major metropolitan area. And finally, to explore the association between both indicators and children mobility patterns: according to their built environment, which neighbourhoods have a greater proportion of children and, how is their mobility? Using data from the 2004 household mobility survey in the 128 neighbourhoods of the municipality of Madrid, this paper concludes that potentially favourable conditions at the neighbourhood level seem to have only a modest influence in,mobility patterns , in terms of both, selection of closer destinations and a higher share of walking within modal split. The city s policy choices, with intensive investment in road and public transport infrastructure may explain why short-distance mobility is not as important as it could have been expected in those neighbourhoods with more pedestrian-friendly conditions. The metropolitan transport system is providing mobility conditions, which make far-away destinations attractive to most citizens.

One-sided asymptotic inferences for a proportion.

Two-sided asymptotic confidence intervals for an unknown proportion p have been the subject of a great deal of literature. Surprisingly, there are very few papers devoted, like this article, to the case of one tail, despite its great importance in practice and the fact that its behavior is usually different from that of the case with two tails. This paper evaluates 47 methods and concludes that (1) the optimal method is the classic Wilson method with a correction for continuity and (2) a simpler option, almost as good as the first, is the new adjusted Wald method (Wald's classic method applied to the data increased in the values proposed by Borkowf: adding a single imaginary failure or success).

(Table S2) Biometric data, time of ice breakup and carbon isotopic composition of adipose tissue of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) between 1991-2007

Two global environmental issues, climate change and contamination by persistent organic pollutants, represent major concerns for arctic ecosystems. Yet, it is unclear how these two stressors interact in the Arctic. For instance, the influence of climate-associated changes in food web structure on exposure to pollutants within arctic ecosystems is presently unknown. Here, we report on recent changes in feeding ecology (1991-2007) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the western Hudson Bay subpopulation that have resulted in increases in the tissue concentrations of several chlorinated and brominated contaminants. Differences in timing of the annual sea ice breakup explained a significant proportion of the diet variation among years. As expected from climate change predictions, this diet change was consistent with an increase in the consumed proportions of open water-associated seal species compared to ice-associated seal species in years of earlier sea ice breakup. Our results demonstrate that climate change is a modulating influence on contaminants in this polar bear subpopulation and may pose an additional and previously unidentified threat to northern ecosystems through altered exposures to contaminants.

(Appendix) Grain-size distribution, calcium carbonate content and proportion of cemented aggregates in ODP Site 133-820

The textural and compositional characteristics of the 400 m sequence of Pleistocene wackestones and packstones intersected at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 820 reflect deposition controlled by fluctuations in sea-level, and by variations in the rate of sediment supply. The development of an effective reefal barrier adjacent to Site 820, between 760 k.y. and 1.01 Ma, resulted in a marked reduction in sediment accumulation rates on the central Great Barrier Reef outermost shelf and upper slope. This marked change corresponds with the transition from sigmoidal prograding seismic geometry in the lower 254 m of the sequence, to aggradational geometry in the top 146 m. The reduction in the rate of sediment accumulation that followed development of the reefal barrier also caused a fundamental change in the way in which fluctuations in sea-level controlled sediment deposition. In the lower, progradational portion of the sequence, sea-level cyclicity is represented by superimposed coarsening-upward cycles. Although moderately calcareous throughout (mostly 35%-75% CaCO3), the depositional system acted in a similar manner to siliciclastic shelf depositional systems. Relative sea-level rises resulted in deposition of more condensed, less calcareous, fine, muddy wackestones at the base of each cycle. Sea-level highstands resulted in increased sedimentation rates and greater influx of coarse bioclastic material. Continued high rates of sedimentation of both coarse bioclastic material and mixed carbonate and terrigenous mud marked falling and low sea-levels. This lower part of the sequence therefore is dominated by coarse packstones, with only thin wackestone intervals representing transgressions. In contrast, sea-level fluctuations following formation of an effective reefal barrier produced a markedly different sedimentary record. The more slowly deposited aggradational sequence is characterized by discrete thin interbeds of relatively coarse packstone within a predominantly fine wackestone sequence. These thin packstone beds resulted from relatively low sedimentation rates during falling and low sea-levels, with much higher rates of muddy sediment accumulation during rising and high sea-levels. The transition from progradational to aggradational sequence geometry therefore corresponds to a transition from a "siliciclastic-type" to a "carbonate-type" depositional system.

Bulk geochemical and lipid biomarker data for sediment core W8402A-14

Eleven sediment samples taken downcore and representing the past 26 kyr of deposition at MANOP site C (0°57.2°N, 138°57.3°W) were analyzed for lipid biomarker composition. Biomarkers of both terrestrial and marine sources of organic carbon were identified. In general, concentration profiles for these biomarkers and for total organic carbon (TOC) displayed three common stratigraphic features in the time series: (1) a maximum within the surface sediment mixed layer (<=4 ka); (2) a broad minimum extending throughout the interglacial deposit; and (3) a deep, pronounced maximum within the glacial deposit. Using the biomarker records, a simple binary mixing model is described that assesses the proportion of terrestrial to marine TOC in these sediments. Best estimates from this model suggest that ~20% of the TOC is land-derived, introduced by long-range eolian transport, and the remainder is derived from marine productivity. The direct correlation between the records for terrestrial and marine TOC with depth in this core fits an interpretation that primary productivity at site C has been controlled by wind-driven upwelling at least over the last glacial/interglacial cycle. The biomarker records place the greatest wind strength and highest primary productivity within the time frame of 18 to 22 kyr B.P. Diagenetic effects limit our ability to ascertain directly from the biomarker records the absolute magnitude that different types of primary productivity have changed at this ocean location over the past 26 kyr.

Utilising survey data to inform public policy: Comparison of the cost-effectiveness of treatment of ten mental disorders

Background Mental health survey data are now being used proactively to decide how the burden of disease might best be reduced. Aims To study the cost-effectiveness of current and optimal treatments for mental disorders and the proportion of burden avertable by each. Method Data for three affective, four anxiety and two alcohol use disorders and for schizophrenia were compared in terms of cost, burden averted and efficiency of current and optimal treatment. We then calculated the burden unavertable given current knowledge. The unit of health gain was a reduction in the years lived with disability (YLDs). Results Summing across all disorders, current treatment averted 13% of the burden, at an average cost of AUS$30 000 per YLD gained. Optimal treatment at current coverage could avert 20% of the burden, at an average cost of AUS$18 000 per YLD gained. Optimal treatment at optimal coverage could avert 28% of the burden, at AUS$16 000 per YLD gained. Sixty per cent of the burden of mental disorders was deemed to be unavertable. Conclusions The efficiency of treatment varied more than tenfold across disorders. Although coverage of some of the more efficient treatments should be extended, other factors justify continued use of less-efficient treatments for some disorders. Declaration of interest None. Funding detailed in Acknowledgements.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, intersample variation in the proportion of linked families ( a) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage. findings obtained using allele- sharing LOD scores ( LODexp) - which assume homogeneity - and heterogeneity LOD scores ( HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LODexp and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these ( HLOD- P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter a only in aggregate data, while the second ( HLOD- S) determines a separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LODexp. Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD- S, but not HLOD- P. Using HLOD- S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

Data visualisation with missing data: A non-linear approach

Exploratory analysis of data in all sciences seeks to find common patterns to gain insights into the structure and distribution of the data. Typically visualisation methods like principal components analysis are used but these methods are not easily able to deal with missing data nor can they capture non-linear structure in the data. One approach to discovering complex, non-linear structure in the data is through the use of linked plots, or brushing, while ignoring the missing data. In this technical report we discuss a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. The generative topographic mapping enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, which is able to incorporate far more structure than a two dimensional principal components plot could, and deal at the same time with missing data. We show that using the generative topographic mapping provides us with an optimal method to explore the data while being able to replace missing values in a dataset, particularly where a large proportion of the data is missing.